Sports Outside the Beltway

Baseball Projections are Out

One of the joys of the baseball offseason is the procession of arcane agate-type minutiae which are gobbled up by various baseball obsessives, inclusing your humble correspondent. The wheeling and dealing, the signings and then when all of that is done, the fearless projections that some computer in a dark smoke filled room has disgorged for our amusement. And amused we are. First was the news Sunday from the Hardball Times

The 2007 Marcels, the simplest yet effective way to predict next year’s performances, are now available on The Hardball Times.

Then today, even more, Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA projections. BP’s stuff is subscriber only. You can click through the Marcels to your hearts content. Also with PECOTA, they use a percentile system, and project the middle ground 50th percentile with a high end and a low end. Get your slide rules ready!

We’ll be looking at more teams as the season gets closer. Today let’s examine Boston’s dynamic hitting duo under both the simplest and the most secretive projection systems out there. PECOTA is first in both charts.

David Ortiz

(Stephan Savoia/AP)










Manny Ramirez

(Brita Meng Outzen/










The heart of that order is a hitting machine. Having two players back to back in your lineup whose OPS are consistently almost 1.000 is a wonderful luxury. Both systems see remarkably similar 2007 seasons for Ortiz and Ramirez, which means as long as the Red Sox can keep Manny happy and hitting, their offense will continue to give opposition pitching fits. Manny is not going anywhere it seems, because the Red Sox cannot get value for him. Expect Sox fans to be suitably smug and insufferable as The Papi and Manny Show steamrolls AL pitching for another slugging summer.

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