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It’s the Yankees, They Better Be Good

They will be. They have great hitters and their pitching is very solid. Their defense is suspect and getting to Mariano at the back end of the bullpen will be interesting, and then there’s Carl Pavano. Let’s take a walk around the Yankee roster and kick the tires a bit.

Offense

The Yankees remain strong with the bats. The outfield of Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu all get on base, hit for power and drive in runs. The infield is nearly as good, with the only weak link qualified by the number of at bats that Doug Mientkiewicz gets playing first base. And even then, Mientkiewicz’ 2006 line of .283/.359/.411 was slightly better than his career averages, and the short right field porch may help boost his power numbers. The biggest Yankee concern on offense will be Jorge Posada, who numbers are still strong, but who is getting to the age where catchers begin to tail off. He’ll get more rest, because the Yankees can afford to rest him and play Jason Giambi at first and have Melky Cabrera DH and still have only one weak bat in the order.

The best story on the Yankees is the continued development of Robinson Cano. His sophomore campaign built on his success in 2005 and established him as one of the more exciting young hitters in the American League. Cano’s production while the Yankees were hurting last season was crucial to them staying in the hunt and eventually destroying Boston down the stretch.

A likely Yankee lineup
CF Johnny Damon
SS Derek Jeter
RF Bobby Abreu
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Hideki Matsui
DH Jason Giambi
C Jorge Posada
2B Robinson Cano
1B Doug Mientkiewicz

It’s a little lefty heavy (A-Rod and Jeter are righties and Posada is a switch hitter) which may explain why the Red Sox have so many lefty relievers. But it is potent filled with difficult outs and good OBP guys from top to bottom.

The bench is thin, but Yankee regular Miguel Cairo has been solid for the Yankees. Melky Cabrera is developing into a quality outfielder. Andy Phillips will spell Mientkiewicz and provides good defense off the bench. Useful all. Outstanding, not so much.

Pitching

With the trade of Randy Johnson, the Yankees removed the Big Headache, and neatly shifted the salary blot on the ledger from Johnson to Andy Pettitte. The once and future Yankee lefty makes his triumphant return to the Bronx. And for the money he may have been the best pitcher on the market. His short contract gives the Yankees flexibility. Further, Pettitte offers the promise of luring Roger Clemens back to the Bronx, as well. The rest of the rotation is pretty settled, with Mike Mussina back for his seventh season in Yankee pinstripes, Chien-Ming Wang getting grounders for a third season and newcomer Kei Igawa, imported from Japan for about half of what the more heralded Daisuke Matsuzaka cost Boston. The fifth spot may just be a placeholder for Clemens. Will Carl Pavano be healthy. Maybe for a few starts. Or maybe he will bounce back and become the solid league average starter he was in Florida. If so, don’t be surprised if New York doesn’t flip him after a quick start and still signs Clemens, but that depends on Pavano being healthy.

In the bullpen, there is some stability. Mariano Rivera is the best relief pitcher in Major League History, but he is also 37 years old. Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Procter, Luis Vizcaino and Mike Myers will handle the majority of setup work.

Conclusion

It’s too early to call them a front-runner, and with the uncertainty of the Clemens situation, the AL East may come down to just that. He who gets Clemens, gets the edge. Until they are knocked off, the Yankees have the edge. Don’t expect a World Series Title, but a Division Title, yeah, they got it.

 

Mike Shula Jaguars New QB Coach

Mike Shula has landed on his feet, as quarterbacks coach for the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars.

Former Alabama coach Mike Shula was hired as the quarterbacks coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday. Coach Jack Del Rio and Shula reached a deal at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., and the team expected a contract to be signed early next week.

Shula went 26-23 in four years at Alabama but was 0-8 against Southeastern Conference West rivals LSU and Auburn. The Tide finished 10-2 under Shula in 2005, but the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula was fired last November after the team went 6-6 during the regular season.

Shula had been a candidate for the head coaching job with the Miami Dolphins, but his father’s former team chose San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to replace Nick Saban.

Shula was in over his head at Alabama, although he faced difficult circumstances. Not only did he take over one of the most prominent head coaching jobs in the country without the right seasoning, he did so in the worst possible situation. Not only was the team smack in the middle of stringent NCAA penalties but he was the third head coach in one offseason, after Dennis Franchione bolted for Texas A&M and Mike Price got caught in an embarrassing scandal with a stripper.

I’m glad both that the Tide has landed Nick Saban and that Shula has a chance to work his way back up the ladder.

 

Red Sox, J.D. Drew Agree, At Last

After many delays and much revision, the Boston Red Sox and J.D. Drew have finally agreed to the five year contract. The Red Sox have an out clause in case Drew’s shoulder does not allow him to play consistently in either year three or year four of the deal. Gordon Edes at the Boston Globe

[S]ources with direct knowledge of the negotiations said all parties have signed off on an agreement that allows the Sox to achieve their goal of making Drew their right fielder and No. 5 hitter, while giving the team the right to void either of the last two years of the deal, or both, should Drew’s right shoulder render him unable to play.

Drew is not expected to be in Boston for today’s announcement.

Under the terms of the contract, if Drew goes on the disabled list in his third year for issues related to the shoulder for a proscribed length of time, the Sox have the option to void the final two years. If he winds up on the disabled list in his fourth year, the Sox have the option of voiding the final year.

The Red Sox have long coveted the offensive machine that is J.D. Drew. Unfortunately, Drew has been snakebitten by repeated injuries, some as the results of pitched balls, but just as often, minor twinges have hampered him. He has, however, played at least 145 games in two of the last three seasons. His MVP-like campaign in 2004 for the Braves was the best of his career, as he posted .305/.436/569 with 31 homeruns. The Red Sox are hoping for that kind of performance hitting behind Manny Ramirez.

Looking at the Red Sox lineup, we see a hitting machine.

SS Julio Lugo
1B Kevin Youkilis
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF J.D. Drew
3B Mike Lowell
C Jason Varitek
CF Coco Crisp
2B Dustin Pedroia

Fourth outfielder Wily Mo Pena will be underutilized coming off the bench, but barring a trade, there is no starting role for him. I did a brief and largely unscientific study of Pena early last season, before injuries landed him on the disabled list. Pena played significantly better in a regular, defined starting role. Pena hit considerably worse when he started irregularly, compared to when he played several days in a row. The sample size was limited, so the data support no conclusions. But it bears watching, can Wily Mo Pena produce playing three or four times a week? Eric Hinske will also be available for corner outfield duty as well as corner infield duty and Alex Cora comes back to back up the middle infielders. Doug Mirabelli will be caddying for Tim Wakefield, unless prospect George Kottaras earns the backup job in spring training. The Red Sox bench is competent.

What dazzles is the awfully pricey starting rotation

Curt Schilling
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Josh Beckett
Tim Wakefield
Jonathan Papelbon

Julian Tavarez and Kyle Snyder can act as swingmen in case any starter needs to miss a start or two. And Jon Lester, who battled non-Hodgkins Lymphoma in the offseason, will be getting back up to speed likely in Pawtucket, the Red Sox AAA affiliate. In addition to Tavarez and Snyder, the Red Sox have Joel Pinheiro, Mike Timlin, Brendan Donnelly, JC Romero and Hideki Okajima in the pen. That’s a complete pitching heavy roster. The Red Sox might try to sneak Kyle Snyder through waivers and stash him at Pawtucket in favor of carrying an additional hitter like Kerry Robinson or Alex Ochoa, who were signed to minor league contracts. The uncertainty at closer looms, but on paper that’s a solid team. In the wings is the possible return of Roger Clemens, who will decide between the Red Sox, Yankees and the Astros where he will play part of the 2007 season.

Will it be enough to overtake the Yankees? Only the games will tell. Outside the Beltway Sports will look at the Yankees next.

 

Yankee News – January 25 edition

Tidbits from Cash Money (thanks to Pete Abraham).

- Miguel Cairo was officially signed today and added to the roster. No word on who is being bumped off the 40-man yet.

Yay! I can’t contain my excitement…

- Humberto Sanchez, contrary to popular belief, is being groomed as a starter and is targeted for the Scranton rotation.

Good. He can build up arm strength and work on a variety of pitches now.

- J.B. Cox fractured a bone in his throwing hand five weeks ago and won’t start a throwing program until the first week of February. Cashman refused to say how he broke his hand.

This is actually pretty good news. The injury won’t cause Cox to miss too much time.

- Cashman talked in general terms about Bernie Williams. It seems like they’re waiting for Bernie to make some kind of decision. “His situation is that he’s a free agent,” Cashman said.

C’mon Bernie, just retire with grace already. Melky is a far better 4th outfielder at this point, and Kevin Thompson is probably a better 5th OF too. We love you but there’s no room anymore on a team that wants to get younger.

- Carl Pavano is not going into spring training as a rehab case. He has been fully cleared to be on the same schedule as everybody else.

I’ll believe he’s pitching when I see him pitching. Until then, he’s a guy coming back from an injury.

Another summary of the Yanks (and other AL Easters) farm system.

The Stadium has been officially named as the host for the 2008 All-Star game.

And Robinson Cano switched from #22 to #24, so that if Roger Clemens pitches in the Bronx this year, his old Yankee number will be available. But the Yanks say he switched without any ‘prompting.’ It’s likely that he’s going with #24 because it’s the reverse of his hero and namesake, Jackie Robinson, who wore #42. (Mo Rivera is the current and last baseball player to wear #42 for any team.)

 

Mariner’s Major Concern: Keep Ichiro

The sparkplug atop the Seattle Mariner’s lineup has been constant for six years. And if Bill Bavasi has anything to say about it, Ichiro Suzuki is not going anywhere. But the problem of signing him isn’t going anywhere either. At least not yet.

The six-time All-Star will make $11 million in the final season of a $44 million, four-year deal. A six-time Gold Glove outfielder, Suzuki is eligible to become a free agent after the World Series.

Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi would like to work out an extension with Suzuki’s agent, Tony Attanasio. Just not necessarily tomorrow. Or even before the season begins April 2.

“It’s a top priority,” Bavasi said Wednesday. “But the timing is not that important. Whatever he and Tony are comfortable with. And whatever our ownership is comfortable with.”

So the potentially difficult negotiations could drag through the summer.

Ichiro Suzuki has been a marvel in Seattle. His ability to get on base via the base hit, without a corresponding ability to draw walks, is otherworldly. In his six seasons he has posted a line of .331/.376/.438. Sabermetricians are fond of Isolated Discipline (IsoD) a statistic that qualifies a high OBP, like Ichiro’s, that is overly dependent on batting average. Suzuki’s is very low. In comparison, Adam Dunn, who has also been in the majors for six years (though his rookie year was a half season), has a line of .245/.380/.513, and an IsoD three times as good as Ichiro’s. Does that make Dunn a better player? Absolutely not, but it does illustrate the vast differences between the skillsets of a slugger like Dunn who draws a lot of walks and a speedy hacker like Suzuki, who makes contact like its nobody’s business.

Nicely, players tend to develop better plate discipline as their athletic skills begin to deteriorate. And for Suzuki, that time may be drawing near. This season is his Age 33 season. Ichiro’s comparables include players like Ralph Garr, Bake McBride and Ron LaFlore whose major league playing days were over by 35. Also on the list are Kenny Lofton and Ken Griffey Sr., who had long careers (Lofton is still going).

The question for Bavasi to answer is will Ichiro be able to adapt to slower wheels and beating out fewer groundballs. In that sense, seeing what he is capable of this season, as he switches to centerfield, is the wise play. As key as it is to sign Ichiro, it is necessary for a Seattle team saddled with onerous contracts to both Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson to spend their money wisely.

The Mariners meanwhile continue to progress towards mediocrity. Despite Mike Hargrove’s recent comments that the goal of the Mariners is to win the AL West (it should be) the talent just isn’t there to win a division with the likes of Oakland and their young talented pitchers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Mariners will be lucky to sneak into second. The Mariners are not terrible, by any stretch. But the bad deals they signed Sexson and Beltre to crippled their ability to improve holes in their rotation. Instead they have a 21-year old third year player at the front of the rotation and a close who fell into the job when another bad signing flamed out last April.

The Mariner’s have not sniffed the postseason since Ichiro’s rookie season. They improved a little last season, but the nine game improvement wasn’t enough to rescue them from the cellar. They don’t score runs consistently, and they will not have Gil Meche who was effective and hometown favorite Jamie Moyer who was as good in Seattle as he was bad on the road.

Harkening back to a previous post, a worst to first season is unrealistic, without a organizational development plan. The Mariner’s really don’t seem to have one. Their lineup is okay, but it is heavy on players who lack discipline. Middle infielders Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt played well and are young, but they need to improve their batting eye. Sexson and Beltre need to live up to their contracts and the Jeremy Reed experience is coming to an end. Youngsters like Brandon Morrow, Ryan Feierabend Mark Lowe and Chris Tillman need to be given a chance to develop. Former Mariners Gil Meche, Joel Pinheiro and Rafael Soriano, as well as King Felix, all were rushed to the major leagues and suffered as a result of it. For Hernandez, the question is whether his arm can develop properly in the crucible of a major league season. So far so good, but with someone as young as he is, anything can go wrong.

With a mandate from CEO Howard Lincoln that a dramatic improvement is needed, Bavasi and Hargrove may be the two most likely candidates to get axed after a slow start. Times are not nice in Seattle.

 

Garrett Named Dallas OffCoord

Via the Star-Telegram: Cowboys name Garrett offensive coordinator.

I must confess, I am intrigued by Garrett’s potential, but have to wonder if we haven’t returned to the Bad Old Days where Jerry basically is the de facto head coach (the Switzer, Gailey and especially the Campo years). If Jerry is going to hire the staff and then hire the HC, then one has to wonder who the real boss is.

And God help us all if TO has no respect for the HC (assuming he stays–and I hope that Jerry sees that TO isn’t worth the money he will earn next year).

[Cross-posted at PoliBlog’s Deportes]

 

Cowboys Coaching Search: Hiring Staff Before Head Coach?

Nick Eatman has an interesting report from Valley Ranch on the hiring process Jerry Jones is using to replace Bill Parcells and other vacancies on the staff. There are many interesting names on the list, including former Cowboys backup quarterback Jason Garrett.

What’s worrisome, however, is that it appears Jones may hire a new offensive and defensive coordinators before bringing in a head coach. Eatman describes secondary coach Todd Bowles as “one of the leading candidates for the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator position” and thinks Garrett could be offered the offensive coordinator position, possibly as a placeholder until he is picked as the head coach.

Bowles and Garrett may well be outstanding choices. But it makes no sense to pick the staff until the head man is in place. The head coach should have absolute authority in hiring the people who will work for him. If, for example, Mike Martz is hired, he may well want to be his own offensive coordinator.

 

Will USC Lose its National Titles?

If one is to pass judgement based on pass history of the NCAA, based on this report, Reggie Bush may of just cost himself the Heisman Trophy and his team two National Championships:

The existence of taped conversations between Reggie Bush or members of his family and an investor in a failed sports marketing agency could confirm the New Orleans Saints running back received cash and gifts while playing for Southern California, Yahoo.com reported Wednesday.

A federal investigation into extortion claims by Bush and his family revealed the existence of the taped conversations, according to the Yahoo.com report.

Lake told Yahoo in August 2006 that he contributed a portion of the cash and gifts allegedly given to Bush and his family as part of an agreement to represent the 2005 Heisman Trophy winner when he signed an NFL contract. In September, Yahoo.com reported Ornstein also supplied Bush and his family with gifts while he was still at USC.

According to Yahoo.com, nearly $280,000 in cash, rent and gifts was allegedly given to Bush and his family.

The Pac-10 Conference and the NCAA are investigating whether Bush or his family broke NCAA rules and compromised his eligibility during the 2004 and ’05 seasons by taking extra benefits.

If Bush is found to have violated NCAA rules, USC, which won a national title in ’04 and played for the ’05 championship, could be sanctioned.

Also, the Heisman Trophy Trust requires players be in good standing with the NCAA to be eligible for the award given to college football’s top player. If Bush is ruled ineligible by the NCAA, he could be in danger of having his Heisman taken away.

If true this would be a black-eye to Reggie’s College Career and USC Football. Its a shame that the actions of one stupid person would wipe away the achievements of an entire team, but as many College Programs, like Michigan (Chris Weber), have learned it is the way the NCAA handles these incidents. Only time will tell if these tapes really exist and the damage it will do to two National Championship seasons for USC. It won’t affect Reggie Bush much as he makes millions in the NFL, but for all the other players who didn’t make millions in the NFL and for the school his stupidity could end up wiping their achievements from the record books and hurt the image of an excellent football program for years. But only time will tell how the NCAA handles this.

 

Western Conference defeats Eastern Conference, 12-9

The 55th NHL All-Star Game is over with the Western Conference defeating the Eastern Conference by a score of 12 to 9 in a defenseive struggle… The Western Confrence surged to victory on the power of a 6-goal 2nd period. Daniel Briere of the Buffalo Sabers from the Eastern Conference was named MVP, who gets a new Dodge Nitro.

 

Cincy Bengals Have Another Player Arrested: Vets Angry

The recent arrest of yet another Cincinnati Bengal, cornerback Johnathan Joseph, has members of the team up in arms.

The team’s front office did not comment on the latest arrest, saying its policy is to not comment on pending legal matters. But in his end-of-season news conference, coach Marvin Lewis said he would be far stricter with the team in 2007.

Defensive tackle John Thornton and other Bengals told the Cincinnati Enquirer that the arrests are dragging the team down. Everyone in the locker room is affected, he said.

“Willie [Anderson], Carson [Palmer], John Thornton, the guys who do things right, have been forced to answer for the guys who decided not to do the right thing,” linebacker Brian Simmons told the newspaper. “The perception of the team across the country is bad. It’s as if it’s going around like the plague.”

“If it doesn’t stop, we’re not going to have any fans left, and I don’t blame them. It’s ridiculous,” Palmer said in comments posted on the team Web site.

“We can’t get through a month without getting a guy arrested. It happens on another team and they’re shocked and surprised to hear about it,” Palmer said. “With us, you hear about it and it doesn’t surprise you and you just shake your head and say, ‘Another one,’ ” he said.

It seems that the embarrassment is finally getting to the team. Good. While I don’t wish the Bengals well, I also don’t like an entire franchise being seen as a negative force in the NFL. Getting several people on your team arrested over the course of a season is not good for a team or its fans. Here’s hoping that this stops, and that the Bengals learn to be law-abiding members of society.

 
 


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