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Yankee News – November 29 edition

- What is the right package for Santana? Does the Tampa deal kill any chance the Yanks have of trading for Johan? I believe so. The Twins will need another starter (now that Garza’s gone) capable of going 200+ innings. Hughes and Joba wont go over 150 each. Kennedy and Wang are the only pitchers capable of that, but neither are good enough in Minny’s opinion to trade for Santana. They want a higher ceiling pitcher. Also, they may not be in the market for a centerfielder anymore. Minny acquired a minor league centerfielder (Jason Pridie) and Delmon Young, a major league right-fielder who could probably play an average CF. He’d probably have below average range but his cannon arm could make up for it. Anyway, now that they have two solid CF candidates, their interest in our centerfielders – Melky and Austin Jackson – could dissipate.

- The Yanks are looking at David Riske and Troy Percival to better the bullpen. I don’t know how much better they would be than what we have in the minors, e.g. Ohlendorf, Edwar, Britton, Veras, Whelan, etc. But for the right deal (in terms of money and length), sure, go ahead.

- Call me crazy, but I don’t get why Clay Buchholz of Boston is getting more love than Phil Hughes right now (ok, maybe I do – because of the no-hitter). Did everyone forget that Hughes was pitching a no-no of his own back in May (only to have it cut 7 outs short by injury)? Hughes has more ML innings under his belt than Clay. Outside of k/9, he has better minor league stats across the board (era, hits/9, walks/9, HR/9 and k/bb) than Clay. Oh, one more thing – Hughes is two years younger!

- How does the mid-90s Mets Trio compare to the current Yanks Trio? Is there any chance they bust as much as Pulsipher, Wilson and Isringhausen?
The following are their MiLB stats through age 23:

Pulsipher
(he missed the entire 1996 season with injuries at the age of 22, derailing his whole career. Let’s look at what he did up to that point.)
527 ip
7.65 h/9
3.9 bb/9
7.65 k/9
1.96 k/bb
2.87 era

Wilson
248 ip
7.26 h/9
2.69 bb/9
9.22 k/9
3.53 k/bb
2.98 era

Izzy
476 ip
7.0 h/9
2.7 bb/9
2.9 k/bb
7.85 k/9
2.72 era

Very good overall. Izzy’s career was set back by an injury that cost him his entire age-23 season.

Now for the Bronx guys
Kennedy first
149 ip
5.62 h/9
3.14 bb/9
9.97 k/9
3.17 k/bb
era 1.87

Joba
88.1 ip
6.33 h/9
2.76 bb/9
13.79 k/9
5 k/bb
2.45 era
followed by an even more impressive ML stint

Hughes
275 ip
5.56 h/9
2.16 bb/9
10.18 k/9
4.7 k/bb
2.03 era

The Yankee Trio puts the Met Trio to shame. Far, far better minor league stats at younger ages. I don’t think the two should even be compared.

- MiLB.com is in the process of listing it’s top 50 prospects. Two Yankees have been named so far: A-Jax at 49 and Kennedy at 26. Tabata and Joba will inevitably be in the top 20.

- Mark Melancon’s on the mend. The guy has closer potential and could be setting up Mo sometime next year – ala Joba in 2007.

 

Why I’m pissed about Arod’s new deal

Am I the only one upset about the home run record incentive Arod is about to get? He could earn an additional $30 million if he passes Barry Bonds’ career home run record. 1. passing Mays, Ruth, Aaron and Bonds isn’t enough of an incentive by itself?, 2. what’s to stop him for swinging for the fences all the time?

Why the Yanks are giving him this and 10-year deal I’ll never know. By passing those historic names on the home run list, Arod will become enshrined in baseball history (even moreso than now) while increasing his fame and financial/marketing clout. There will be plenty more money there for him that the Yanks should not feel a need to ‘share’ with Arod the extra (if there is any) money they’ll make from the home run chase.

The second part is even more frustrating. Here’s a scenario: tie game in the late innings, runner on 2nd, two outs, Arod up. The count goes full. He strikes out swinging at a slider in the dirt because he’s swinging for the fences, inning over. He doesn’t get any closer to his incentives by merely taking a walk or even hitting a game-winning single. The only way he does inch closer is by parking a ball into the seats, hence the overanxiety. We won’t know that’s the reason, but it will be a thorn in our mind, torturing us. Was he swinging for the fences? Was he unwilling to walk? Same thing with all the pop-ups, double-play grounders, two-strike swings, full count swings, etc. It really, really irks me. It’s like Hank, Brian and Arod are putting the productivity of one player above that of the team. If they’re going to give him $6 million for each home run record broken, why not the same for every title won (or why not $10 million for that)? And because of the ridiculous length of the deal, it’s a problem that’s going to bother the fans, managers, front office, and especially his teammates for the next decade. Honestly, I’d rather them just give him $305 million straight up than add in these stupid HR incentives. If Arod got booed for grounding into a double-play before, there’ll be even more reason to boo him now since we’ll have the suspicion that he’s swinging for the fences. If they just give him all the $305 million, at least there wouldn’t be any suspicions. Despite the extra $30 million, it’s preferable in my mind. Why is Yankee management giving in? Ugh…

- Here’s another example of how wildly Arod will be overpaid for the next decade (still hard to fathom the length). Projections are, of course, no sure indication of a player’s productivity, but they are worth at least a look when splurging on a record-setting deal.

He’s not projected to have a single year OPS of more than 1.000, and will bat under .270 the last half (five years) of the deal. If this projection is remotely close, it will be a debacle the likes of which will make Carl Pavano look like a bargain (well, almost).

Brian and Hank, back out now while you still can!

 

More A-Rod

This sums up my thoughts quite well.

From Newsday -

For 10 years. The A-Rod Yankees.

Forget that Hank Steinbrenner is the new Boss or Joe Girardi is the manager or Derek Jeter is the captain (and how happy does Jeter have to be with the idea of looking to his right every day and seeing A-Rod’s mug?).

The Yankees will be A-Rod’s team, for better or worse. We say worse. If the Yankees were ever planning to get away from the star system – wasn’t that the plan for about five minutes? – that’s over now. It’ll be all A-Rod, all the time, and how has that worked out so far?

Can A-Rod live up to the contract? Will fickle Yankees fans boo every strikeout and cheer ever home run? Will he ever have a sleepover with Jeter again? Will he hit in the postseason? Will he shout “Ha!” at an opposing third baseman? Will he be able to remain faithful to his wife? Will C-Rod wear any more tops with obscene messages on them to the Stadium?

And these are just the questions we know about now. Only a striking soap opera writer would be able to plot out what new distractions A-Rod might bring to the Yankees over the next 10 years. But make no mistake – it will happen. Wins and losses will take a back seat to the A-Rod circus. Championships are out, TV ratings are in.

Like Pamela Anderson remarrying Tommy Lee, A-Rod re-upping with the Yankees is a bad idea, especially once it seemed the divorce was final. The Yankees were moving on, they told us. No chance, Hank Steinbrenner said. We’re looking for a third baseman, Brian Cashman said with no hint of deceit in his blue eyes.

Then A-Rod reached out, and that guy from Goldman Sachs reached out, and just like that the Yankees were falling over themselves to guarantee 10 years to someone who wouldn’t take their calls and quit on them through the evil Scott Boras in a failed effort to start the bidding at $350 million.

Why offer 10 years to a 32-year-old player, even one in such amazing physical shape it makes Boras drool with dollar-signed delight? It would make sense to offer him, say, five or six or even seven years because then you get the bounce from the Bonds pursuit. But 10? Who exactly are the Yankees bidding against? Offer him seven years, tell him to prove his love for New York by “settling” for it, and cut him off like the phony he is when he changes his tune and starts shopping that contract around.

 

Yankee Hot Stove II

- Mo Rivera is expected to sign the Yankees three-year, $45 million record offer early this week. He was the most important free agent to re-sign because without him, who would be the closer? Cordero, who had a decent year (in the NL Central)? Joba Chamberlain, whose progress would be stunted by a full year as a reliever? Rivera was clearly the best option out there, but unfortunately, extremely expensive. At least the Yanks aren’t giving him a fourth year.

- The reported four-year, $60 million offer to Mike Lowell to play first was debunked. Thank goodness. I was starting to doubt Brian Cashman’s sanity.

- USA! USA! USA!

 

Just say no to Alex Rodriguez

People were saying that after Arod’s deal in 2001 that $25 million a year wouldn’t look as bad in a few years (with inflation and the increasing free agent financial market). It still does. Some thought that other top players would be compensated similarly. It never happened nearly to the extent some thought it would. Even Manny’s crazy contract ($160 million for 8 years) has him making $8 mil (per year) less than Arod. Is Arod worth $8 mil more than Manny? Nope. Look at the stats – Arod’s the better defender and base-runner, but Manny’s the better hitter.

Sure Arod will (probably) be good for .295/.380/.570 for the next few years. But what happens when he starts declining, which could happen as soon as next year? Everyone has to realize Arod had a career year in ’07. He’s highly unlikely to repeat it. Historically speaking, he’ll only get worse from here on out. That Bonds played great well into his late 30s and early 40s is only a testament to the power of steroids. As in my previous post, I don’t believe Arod juices so the same benefits of longevity won’t apply to Alex. Never mind the decline in defense he’ll suffer.

Another reason not to sign Arod to the supposed mega-deal is the draft picks. If he signs elsewhere, the Yanks get two top picks in the 2008 draft. They probably wouldn’t be better than Arod, but together they might be. Who will have more value over the next 5-10 years, Arod or Joba and Kennedy (the top two picks of 2006)? Probably the pitchers, especially counting for value (effectiveness per dollar). Now not every draft is that good, but we know now that it can be. Phil Hughes was a first round pick. So was C.J. Henry who helped us acquire Abreu. There are definitely busts out there, but the pros outweigh the cons (in my opinion, as always).

And it ain’t just the amount of money ($275 million+, which is insane), but it puts the Yanks even higher above the luxury tax. That money goes to other teams. I’m sick of handing out money to make other teams better. If the Yanks were run more efficiently (Lowell for 4 years, $60 million?!), they would have a top team without helping out our competitors.

The next decade (still hard to believe the length) is going to be a(nother) damn circus. It’s enough. Let another team get the albatross, we get the draft picks and can finally move on. Contrary to popular belief, Arod is not a prerequisite to winning. Arod has two MVPs in the last three years, yet zero titles (or even World Series appearances). ’96-’03, six Series appearances, four titles. Obviously a lot of that was due to pitching, but that’s the point: we did it without an MVP and first-ballot Hall of Fame hitter – we didn’t need one. Now, I do think the team will be better for the next few years with Arod, but again, he’s not a prerequisite to winning. For the long term I believe it’s a detriment.

What’ll happen when he has an off year (or off month) and the boos return? It’s tough for Arod, tough for his teammates, tough for the managers, tough for the front office, tough for the fans that don’t boo him – just a bad situation. I really think its better for everyone to just split.

And the home run record incentive is stupid too. What’s to stop him from solely trying for HRs from here on out? Pride you might say? The same pride that made him opt-out during the World Series? Anyway, that seemed to be his biggest problem in ’06 – always trying to hit the long ball. Now that he has a (huge) monetary incentive just to hit HRs, why would he try to get that runner in from 2nd with a single rather than swinging for the fences?

In closing, I’m sure I’ve overlooked some things but I tried to get all my thoughts out at once. They just came flowing and I apologize in advance for any mistakes.

 

Like sands through the hourglass, so is the Yankee off-season.

- And look whose come crawling back, clinging to the last shreds of good will he has in New York. Supposedly, for the Yanks to take him back, he would have to ‘reimburse’ them for losing the Texas money (about $21 million) AND exclude Scott Boras from the negotiations. Rumors exist of a 10-year, $275 million deal in the works. God no. Too much per year and too many years – $27.5 mil for a 42-year-old 1b/DH?! $175 million for seven is more like it. Offer that to Arod, if he doesn’t take it, let him get a better deal elsewhere. We’re a better team with him but we have won without him.

- Mo wants $50 million… No way in hell should he get that. $45 million for three years is more than enough for a 38-year-old closer. No one is going to match his demand (or even the Yanks offer).

 

Posada re-signs for four years, $52 million

The Yanks caved and gave him that fourth year he really wanted. His career line of .277/.381/.479 is excellent for a catcher, and his #1 comparison at catcher is Carlton Fisk. He’ll be 39 at the end of the contract and will likely be the 1B/DH in 2011. Hopefully Jesus Montero or Austin Romine (or someone else) will be ready to take over by then.

RAB’s where I saw it first.

- 2007 Yankee Minor League’s Season Review

 

Yankee Hot Stove cookin’

- The Yanks are unlikely to trade any of the Troika – good for Cash. The more I think about it, the more I dislike the idea of trading away any of Hughes, Joba or Kennedy. Position players are great, but it’s equally if not more important to know that every single game your starting pitcher’s going to give you a good chance to win. Kennedy for Miggy I’d do in a heartbeat (but Florida never would). The Marlins would probably want Melky and another good prospect in the deal. Every scenario just brings more complications to the future.
If Melky’s traded, who plays center? Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter? No thanks. Both are on the wrong side of 30, have declined on defense, and would probably require multi-year deals. Damon is the only current option. His D declined considerably and he battled injuries all year. His weak arm is better hidden in left than center. What happens when he needs a day off or gets hurt? Sure, Gardner could fill in for an injury, but not a day off. He needs to get consistent playing time and would be wasted riding the bench.
If Kennedy’s traded, Moose would become the fifth starter. Not a good option. A 5.15 era this year, and with Hughes and Joba set to top out at about 140 innings each, Moose would get a lot more innings than the Yanks want. Those innings would be much better handled by the 23-year-old Kennedy with Moose getting spot starts and long relief appearances. I haven’t even mentioned Pettitte. If he does retire, there’s no way Kennedy gets traded (unless it’s for another starter). Assuming 950 ip from the starters (921 in 2007) – subtracting 400 for Wang and Pettitte leaves us with 550. Minus 280 for Joba and Hughes still leaves 270. That amount requires at least two more starters, perfect for Kennedy and Mussina. A duo that is far better than any other combo they could muster, e.g. Igawa, Clippard, White, DeSalvo, etc. And all these calculations don’t even take into account for major injuries.
Now you say Miggy can be had for Kennedy straight up, of course I do it (and worry about the pitching later), but much more than that is asking for trouble down the road. The Yanks counteroffer was Tabata, Sanchez, Horne and Ohlendorf. Tough call but I guess I’d do it: Jtab is a great pure hitter at just 19 (and might actually get some power now that his hand problems are seemingly behind him), Sanchez could be a lesser version of Joba and potential closer within the next two years (although coming back from Tommy John surgery), while Horne and Ohlendorf have great stuff but aren’t too young (both over 24). I would hate losing Sanchez and Jtab but to get a Hall of Fame hitter (turning just 25 in April), you have to do it.

- Cash will offer arbitration to Arod. A win-win for the Yanks. He declines and they get two high draft picks; he accepts and returns to the Bronx on a one-year deal (without a no-trade clause to boot). If for some crazy reason he did accept, Cash would be smart to trade him. Imagine the possible returns…

- As we all could tell from his YES broadcasts, Joe G is a very, very smart guy.

- Read reports on other blogs that the Yanks discussed a Hughes plus Melky for Peavy trade with San Diego. Checking out Peavy’s stats at BRef and BPro, I expected to find a dominant pitcher but merely found a very good one. I just wasn’t blown away by him as much of the media trumps him up as one of the best in MLB. Don’t get me wrong, he was phenomenal this year, but his career has been a combo of a few great and a few average years.

 

Yankee News – November 7 edition

- In the good news category, GMs voted in favor of instant replay (25-5) to help umpires decide fair/foul calls. This is great news, and although limited, is a step in the right direction. Hopefully next year balls/strikes, out/safe, catches/traps, and other such calls will be eligible for video review. And going by ESPN’s poll, fans overwhelmingly favor IR. Not all bad news these days.

- Andy Pettitte declined his 2008 option, but has left the door open to return. He wants more time to mull it over. I think he’ll return.

- New nickname alert: J-Tab.

- Miguel Cabrera is available for trade. I dream of getting him without giving up a top prospect, e.g. Cano, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Wang, Melky, Jtab, Ajax, Betances, Montero, McAllister, Heredia, Gardner, Melancon, Sanchez. Would some combination of Ohlendorf, Horne, Marquez, Whelan, Nacci, Miranda, Kontos, Dunn, McCutchen, Corona and Cervelli be enough? Doubtful. There’s not a single can’t miss in that group. Look at the haul they got for Beckett and Lowell. It would probably take something like that.

- Sources close to Arod say Boston is #1 on his list of teams. Don’t worry. It’s all a facade by Scottie Boras. First, why would the Sawx want Arod when they have the World Series MVP on their team at the same position who would cost a helluva lot less? Second, he’s the most hated athlete in Boston (yes, even more than Jeter). Third, if Arod thinks New York fans are fickle, wait till he plays a month in Fenway. Fourth, I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘source’ is in fact Boras trying to scare the Yankees into bidding on Arod when they said they wouldn’t. Without the richest team in baseball bidding for his client, he won’t receive as much as he hopes. Fifth, if he does think the Yanks are truly out of it, then having the second richest team (supposedly) bidding also serves this purpose.

- Tim Lincecum is available for a ‘good bat’ according to FOX Sports. How about J-Tab and A-Jax for Lincecum? Yeah, not enough in my opinion, but you never know with crazy Brian Sabean.

- Johnny Damon for Joe Crede? No thanks. Crede has a career OBP of .305. Ugh. He’s great on defense, but not not enough to make up for that putrid OBP. He’s marginally better against LHP but when accounting for Damon’s speed (which Crede is completely devoid of), you can’t make that trade. Now if Cash thinks Gardner, A-Jax or J-Tab aren’t far off (they’ll start 2008 in AAA and AA respectively), and considering Crede is four years younger, maybe it does make sense. We have a glut of OFers and a need for a righty third-baseman.

- 2008 Yankee projections
Shelley (!) is projected to lead the team in HR with 24. The hitting projections seem about right to me but I have some disagreements with the pitching. For example, Joba is projected to have a higher ERA (4.43) than Ian Kennedy, Chris Britton, Kyle Farnsworth and Ron Villone. Highly doubtful.

 

2008 Yankee coaching staff set

Great that they’re keeping Kevin Long and Tony Pena, and promoting Dave Eiland to pitching coach. Cashman is doing well. I don’t know that much about the coaching of the other fellers – just that Bobby Meachem (the 3b coach) and Rob Thomson (bench coach) have been in baseball for almost 40 years combined. The new bullpen coach, Mike Harkey, I’d never even heard of before tonight. It sucks losing Larry Bowa, but if Girardi likes Harkey (his bullpen coach in Florida), then I trust him.

Eiland was Triple-A Scranton’s pitching coach this year (and worked with the Trio: Hughes, Joba and Kennedy), and was with Double-A Trenton in 2006 (during Hughes’ monster season).

I wonder if a study can’t be conducted that shows the effect of a good vs. a bad 3b coach…

 
 


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