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The Steelers took approximately two seconds to grab Rashard Mendenhall, easily the best player left on the board, after the Cowboys stupidly passed on him for Felix Jones.
Scouts, Inc.: 7th
Strengths: Thickly and powerfully built back. Possesses adequate height, a strong lower body and enormous arms. Runs with adequate pad-level and will generate lots of yards after initial contact. Drives his legs and always seems to be falling forward. Vision and patience are adequate to good. Shows above-average initial quickness and outstanding burst when bouncing runs outside. Very few backs his size share such a noticeable second-gear (see: 2008 Rose Bowl vs. USC). He is a reliable pass-catcher with a good feel for getting open underneath. Can pluck the ball on the run and is dangerous in the open field with a head of steam. Is more than willing in pass pro and possesses the size/strength to anchor versus blitzing linebackers. Does not have a lot of wear on his tires and his best football should be ahead of him.
Weaknesses: Not overly elusive and won’t generate many yards by making defenders miss in space. Had some fumbling issues earlier in his career. Only one season as fulltime load carrier at collegiate level. Will need some time to adjust to blitz pickup in NFL. Awareness in that regard is only decent. While he has been a productive receiver, he needs to do a better job of catching with his hands rather than allowing it to frequently get into his body. Off-season conditioning has never been his strength. Doesn’t have much room left on frame to add bulk, so he will need to guard against adding unnecessary weight.
Overall: After graduating high school early and arriving on campus in the spring of 2005, Mendenhall contributed immediately as a true freshman. In 10 games, he ran for 218 yards on 48 carries and had 13 receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns. In 2006, he ran for 640 yards and five TDs on a Big Ten-best 8.2 yards per carry, adding another 164 yards and a score on 12 receptions. As a junior, Mendenhall delivered 1,999 total yards and 19 TDs in 13 games. He led the conference and ranked eighth in the nation in rushing yards (1,681). Mendenhall peaked as a junior, which was his first season as a fulltime starter at Illinois. While he still can improve as a football player, there are no glaring weaknesses to his game. Mendenhall is a powerful runner with the burst to hit the occasional homerun. He also is more than capable in the passing game both as a receiver and blocker. With good coaching and attention to detail, Mendenhall has a chance to rank among the upper-echelon starters in the NFL a couple years from now. Mendenhall is worth a mid-to-late first round pick and he should be the second or third running back selected in April’s draft.
Rick Gosselin: 10th
Mel Kiper: 10th
Authoritative runner with a major league burst through the hole. Mendenhall’s hard-charging style makes him difficult to get to the ground.
Great pick. The Steelers continue to be the best value drafters in the league. They probably didn’t need a running back here. But how do you pass up top 10 talent at the 23 spot?
Unlike past years, where teams with the 1st overall pick wasted 15 minutes of our time despite having months to make their decision, the Miami Dolphins signed Jake Long before the draft started and Commissioner Goddell announced his selection immediately upon kicking off the draft.
Scouts, Inc. ranked Long #4 overall, with the same 98 grade as four other players.
OT | (6′7″, 313, 5.219) | MICHIGAN
Strengths: An experienced, technically sound OT prospect with great size-potential. Is versatile; has experience at left and right tackle and could play either/both in the NFL. Also has proven capable of performing at a high level in power-run scheme and new zone-blocking scheme. Possesses excellent height, adequate bulk and the frame to get bigger if necessary. He has a massive wingspan with long arms and big hands. A natural knee-bender; he gets set quickly in pass pro, plays with good body lean and rarely gets caught lunging. He shuffles his feet quickly and can get back inside to defend double move. Uses long arms and powerful punch to jar defenders and run them wide as pass rushers. Shows excellent awareness in pass pro; consistently gives inside help and does an great job of picking up stunts, twists and blitzes. He takes very good angles as a run blocker. Has adapted very well zone-blocking and shows the mobility to execute in a similar scheme in the NFL. He has good upper-and-lower body strength as a run blocker. Also works hard to sustain and shows a good mean streak. Great intangibles. A leader and hard worker on-and-off the field. Good student in the classroom and intelligence carries over to the field, where he picks up techniques, schemes and assignments quickly.
Weaknesses: Lacks elite mobility for an elite OT prospect. Has enough quickness and balance to perform at a high level in the NFL, but he is not as nimble as former top OT prospects such as Orlando Pace (Rams), Jonathan Ogden (Ravens), D’Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets) and Joe Thomas (Browns). Had some trouble versus Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston’s elite speed rushers. Durability is somewhat of a concern after he missed the first seven games of the 2005 season with an ankle/foot injury.
Overall: Long was redshirted in 2003. In his first active season at Michigan (2004), he appeared in 12 games, starting the last 10 at right tackle, and was selected to the Freshman All-America team. As a sophomore in 2005, played five games (four starts) at right tackle. He moved to left tackle in 2006, and went on to start all 26 of the Wolverines’ games over his final two seasons. He was a first team All-America selection and the Big Ten Lineman of the Year in each of his last two seasons. Long missed the first seven games of 2005 while recovering from spring shoulder surgery and suffering from foot and ankle injuries. Long has outstanding experience to go along with his massive frame, above-average quickness for his size, a powerful upper body (37 reps), long arms (35.6 inches) and big hands (11 inches). He is not as athletic as last year’s top tackle prospect Joe Thomas (Browns), but Long has more than enough range to effectively protect the quarterback’s blindside in the NFL and he’s bigger, stronger and more physical than Thomas was coming out of school. One year later, Long grades out slightly lower than Thomas (No. 3 overall in 2007) but he could actually come off the board earlier in what projects to be a weaker class.
Rick Gosselin ranked him 4th as well.
A year has passed and we hear rumors of another Nick Saban like departure from Miami.
Cam Cameron attempted to make it clear Wednesday that the Dolphins won’t lose their coach to the college ranks for the second straight year, denying his interest in the University of Michigan’s coaching vacancy.
Cameron’s name has appeared in two Detroit papers in a laundry list of potential candidates to replace departing coach Lloyd Carr, who resigned on Monday.
“I’m the head football coach of the Miami Dolphins. This is the place that I am and I’m committed to getting this place turned around, period,” Cameron said.
Cameron served as an assistant, alongside Carr, at Michigan, working for both Bo Schembechler and Gary Moeller for 10 seasons before breaking into the NFL in 1994 as a quarterbacks coach for the Redskins.
I believe Cameron, which is in stark contrast to last year’s Saban rumors. Cameron could be involuntarily looking for work again when the season is over. If Miami goes 0-16 and draft picks Ted Ginn and John Beck look like busts. I’m betting Cameron will be back in 2008.
It was a bizarre weekend in college football, with eight ranked teams losing to teams ranked below them — seven to teams not ranked at all.
#3 Oklahoma lost to unranked Colorado, 24-27.
#4 Florida lost to unranked Auburn, 17-20.
#5 West Virginia lost to #18 South Florida, 13-21 (Thursday night).
#7 Texas lost to unranked Kansas State, 21-41
#10 Rutgers lost to unranked Maryland, 24-34
#13 Clemson lost to unranked Georgia Tech, 3-13
#21 Penn State lost to unranked Illinois, 20-27
#22 Alabama lost to unranked Florida State, 14- 21
This was on top of several other close finishes.
ESPN’s Pat Forde dubs it “Insanity Saturday” and observes that this throws the whole season out of whack.
Just that fast, the college football landscape shifted seismically beneath our feet.
Just that fast, the Red River Shootout game Saturday between Oklahoma and Texas was dropped to undercard status. For the first time in years, it’s not the marquee game in the Big 12. And for the first time in years, the league’s maligned North looks more compelling than the South. If you can believe it, the biggest game in that league next week might be unbeaten Kansas at 3-1 Kansas State — either that or 4-1 Nebraska at unbeaten Missouri.
Just that fast, the upcoming LSU-Florida showdown Saturday in Baton Rouge lost half its helium when the Gators were shocked in The Swamp by an Auburn team that had lost at home to South Florida and Mississippi State on consecutive weekends.
Just that fast, the three Big East teams that began the season in the Top 25 all have at least one loss. Louisville went down first, then West Virginia, now Rutgers. Suddenly South Florida, Connecticut and Cincinnati are the unbeaten teams in the Big East. Honk if you foresaw that in August.
Just that fast, Illinois is 4-1 and tied for first in the Big Ten at 2-0. That’s the same Illinois that went 2-10 last year, with only one victory over I-A competition.
Just that fast, we have an ACC plot twist that leaves Virginia and Boston College well out in front in their respective divisions at 3-0 in league play. Virginia was left for dead after a Week 1 blowout loss to Wyoming. Boston College was picked last in its division by at least one preseason magazine.
And just that fast, USC and LSU put that much more distance between themselves and what’s left of the pack.
The object lesson here is that no favorite is safe. Not at home, not on the road, not in league play, not out of league play. If those lessons hadn’t already been learned by Appalachian State 34, Michigan 32, and Syracuse 38, Louisville 35, they were reinforced on Insanity Saturday.
And no lead is safe. You’d think the Sooners getting up 24-7 would be enough to make Colorado quit. You’d be wrong. The Buffaloes scored the final 20 points, winning on the last play of the game — a 45-yard field goal by Kevin Eberhart.
[...]
Underdogs aren’t scared right now, by much of anyone. Players and coaches are shrugging off past history, blowing off bad losses, not worrying about falling behind and regrouping to pull upsets nobody saw coming. Nobody’s rolling over.
I’ve seen this sort of thing in college basketball before but never to this extent in football. The bottom line, though, is that Notre Dame and Alabama and Michigan no longer have an automatic recruiting advantage over South Florida and West Virginia and Georgia Tech. There’s a wealth of talent out there and plenty of television exposure to be had in the realigned conference structure. Players would rather go to a program with less prestige and start than sit on the bench and one of the Big Boys.
The Michigan Wolverines set a record Saturday, becoming the first ranked Division I-A team to lose to a Division I-AA team. Now, they’ve set another one: The biggest drop ever in the AP poll.
Thud! The final fallout from a disastrous opening weekend for Michigan came Tuesday, when the Wolverines dropped all the way out of The Associated Press Top 25, an unprecedented fall from No. 5 to unranked. Since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, no team has taken a bigger tumble in one week.
[...]
As for Michigan, the Wolverines became the first ranked team from Division I-A, now known as the Bowl Subdivision, to lose to a team from I-AA, now known as the Championship Subdivision.
[...]
Michigan received 39 points from the media voters in the Top 25, including a 16th place vote by Wayne Phillips from The Greenville (Tenn.) Sun. “I still think Michigan has a good football team,” he said. “I think they’re worthy of being ranked. They may prove me wrong.” Phillips said he gave Michigan some leeway because he’s very familiar with Appalachian State, the two-time defending I-AA champions. “They’re a pretty darn good football team,” he said. “If Michigan had lost to some of the other patsies some of the big teams played I could see dropping them out.”
Appalachian State is not eligible for the AP Top 25, which only ranks Bowl Subdivision teams. The Wolverines host Oregon on Saturday.
Before Michigan’s fall, Notre Dame held the ignominious record for largest drop in the rankings in the Top 25-era. The Fighting Irish dropped 16 spots — from No. 9 to No. 25 — after losing to Northwestern 17-15 on Sept. 3, 1995. Texas dropped 15 spots in 1997, going from ninth to 24th after a 66-3 loss to UCLA in September 1997. Louisville also fell 15 spots — 11th to unranked — in September 2005 after losing to South Florida.
The highest ranked team to fall from the poll after one loss was No. 2 Oklahoma in 1959, when the AP was ranking the top 20 teams. Later that season Army went from No. 4 to unranked. In 1950, Tennessee went from No. 4 to unranked in October and in 1960 Illinois fall out of the ranking from No. 4.
I don’t see how they could have been ranked after this, frankly. But it just goes to show the silliness of having teams ranked by the media before the first games are played and then have everyone jockeying from those spots. Most teams have no chance at a (mythical) national championship because even going 12-0 would not put them into the top two if they start the season unranked.
He was the Hoosiers head coach for two years.
INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana football coach Terry Hoeppner died Tuesday of complications from a brain tumor, a university spokesman said. He was 59.
Hoeppner, who had two brain surgeries in the past 18 months, missed nearly four months on medical leave. He died at 6:50 a.m. at Bloomington Hospital, said J.D. Campbell, the school’s sports information director.
Late last week, the school said assistant Bill Lynch would replace him as coach for the 2007 season.
Hoeppner, who went 9-14 in two seasons as Indiana’s coach, had taken three medical leaves since December 2005. He hadn’t been seen publicly since late February.
Very sad. RIP.
Below are some expert analyses of Day 1 of the 2007 NFL Draft. I’ll update the list over the next couple of days as more roll in.
Note: Bumped to top from 6:54 am April 29.
ESPN’s John Clayton picks his Winners and Losers.
Winners
1. Cleveland Browns: All right, they gave away a potential top-five pick in next year’s draft to get Quinn at No. 22. We all realize the Browns may not be very good next season. The roster has age in the front seven of the 3-4 defense and numerous other holes. The reason the Browns are the big winners is because they potentially filled two of the five major building blocks of a team, getting Quinn and left tackle Joe Thomas. Teams win with quality players at left tackle, defensive end, cornerback, wide receiver and quarterback. If the Browns lose next season, general manager Phil Savage and coach Romeo Crennel might not be around to reap the rewards of this draft. Regardless, Savage did a great job despite the price.
2. Lane Kiffin and Al Davis: They had to take a quarterback. The franchise was set back by not taking Matt Leinart or Jay Cutler a year ago. The 31-year-old coach and the ageless Davis played catch-up Saturday. They had to take JaMarcus Russell instead of playing around with second- or third-round prospects. Getting TE Zach Miller in the second round was the right call, too. The Raiders topped the day off by acquiring quarterback Josh McCown and wide receiver Mike Williams from Detroit for a fourth-round choice. McCown, who comes to the team on a one-year contract, can carry the team into the season as the starter, buying Russell time to learn the offense and feel comfortable in the NFL. The Raiders’ quarterback problems will be solved for the start of the 2007 season with McCown, and hopefully in the future with Russell.
3. Cardinals assistant head coach Russ Grimm: Grimm is one of the best offensive line teachers in the NFL and he usually doesn’t go into the personnel office asking for high draft picks. But Grimm believed Levi Brown of Penn State was a better fit for his offensive line than Joe Thomas. With the fifth pick, Grimm got his tackle. Remember, the Cardinals are a left-handed team because they have a left-handed quarterback in Matt Leinart. Brown can protect his blindside at right tackle. Plus, he gives Edgerrin James a bigger, more powerful blocking style to get some power runs to the right. Thomas might be the better long-term pass-blocker and probably would have beaten out Brown for the No. 5 pick if he was available. But Grimm got the guy he wanted. The Cardinals also came out ahead in getting defensive tackle Alan Branch in the second round. The team is moving to a 3-4 alignment in 2007 or 2008, and he can be the nose tackle to eat up space and draw extra blocking attention.
4. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin: It was a bold move to chase away Joey Porter, whom the Steelers believe lost some of the speed that made him the No. 1 linebacker in their 3-4 scheme. The Steelers drafted linebacker Lawrence Timmons in the first round and defensive end LaMarr Woodley in the second round. Woodley could develop into a No. 1 pass-rusher. Tomlin also wanted to get some youth and quickness into the linebacker corps to give him the flexibility to use some 4-3 alignments at times. Timmons has that type of speed and quickness, but he also has experience in the 3-4 with some of the schemes used at Florida State.
5. The Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones wasn’t really looking for much as far as impact in the 2007 draft. The Cowboys have a young group of 3-4 defenders that didn’t need much attention. With age at wide receiver (Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens) and Flozell Adams and Tony Romo both in the last year of their contracts, major changes are ahead for the offense. But for 2007, the offense is in good shape. The Browns could be bad next year, so getting the Browns’ No. 1 pick could put the Cowboys in position for a left tackle, top receiver or a quarterback if Romo stumbles this season. To move back into the second round, the Cowboys gave up the chance to draft safety Brandon Meriweather. But they turned back around and traded back into the first round and got a great pass-rusher in Anthony Spencer. Touchdown, Cowboys.
Losers
1. Brady Quinn: Not since Aaron Rodgers has an NFL draft seen a quarterback lose as much as Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn. Financially, slipping from a top-three pick to No. 22 could cost him as much in $33 million in contract dollars and maybe $18 million in guarantees. The Browns considered him with the third pick but took Wisconsin left tackle Joe Thomas. He could partially understand the Vikings passing on him. Halfback Adrian Peterson was available and coach Brad Childress invested time and draft choices to get Tarvaris Jackson last year. The killer was the Dolphins at No. 9. Television cameras caught him flabbergasted by the Dolphins’ selection of Ted Ginn Jr. Vince Young, the third pick in last year’s draft, received a six-year, $48 million deal that included $24.9 million in guarantees. The 22nd pick, being a quarterback, might get a five-year deal that could max out at $15 million or maybe $20 million, although Quinn’s agent, Tom Condon, can be creative. Regardless, Quinn was the biggest loser on the first day.
2. NFC North: The NFC North is a big loser with Adrian Peterson going to Minnesota. Peterson is angry he was bypassed by six teams, and as Larry Johnson proved over the past two seasons, an angry runner is a dangerous runner. Also, Peterson will be going up against three Cover 2-type defenses. Other than Chris Henry of Arizona, Peterson is the fastest running back in this draft. On the artificial turf in the Metrodome, he will appear to be even faster. Peterson slipped to No. 7 because he’s 90 percent healed from a collarbone separation. He doesn’t plan to have surgery to insert a plate, but if he does, he’s going to be sidelined for only six weeks. Six games against him in the division could be very painful for opponents.
3. Brett Favre — for now: Favre came back from potential retirement for a playoff run, but he’s waiting for a big push from the Packers’ personnel department. The wait netted him backup cornerback Frank Walker in free agency. That’s it. Unless he was cutting the grass on his tractor, Favre might have been sitting around waiting for the Packers to acquire a big, fast receiver like Robert Meachem or find the running back to replace Ahman Green, who left for Houston to reunite with former Packers head coach Mike Sherman. The first round gave him defensive tackle Justin Harrell, a good lineman who fills a need. Brandon Jackson, a running back from Nebraska, went to the Packers in the second round but many thought he would go in the third, just like Green did years ago. Don’t get me wrong: Jackson is a good sleeper back, better than people think. He’s tough, he runs hard, and he should help. But sleepers may not wake up a quarterback waiting for greatness. Sounds to me like the Packers need to make that final push to get Randy Moss to satisfy Favre. That could happen Sunday. Favre might stop weeding the garden for that.
4. The Mile High Brownie defensive line: Remember how Mike Shanahan put together two years of playoff runs by accumulating the greatest collection of former Browns defensive linemen? You remember the group: Gerard Warren, Courtney Brown, Ebenezer Ekuban, Amon Gordon, Alvin McKinley, Kenard Lang and Michael Myers. Shanahan continues to serve notice that Cleveland may rock, but former Cleveland linemen could be out in the cold. The Broncos drafted two defensive ends: Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder. Brown and Myers are gone. Lang should stay, but Ekuban will have to fight for his job. McKinley was just signed, so he’s in, and Warren is under a long-term contract. However, if the Panthers trade Kris Jenkins, don’t be surprised if they move on Warren.
5. The 2008 draft: What is it about the 2008 draft some teams don’t like? The Browns and Colts gave up first-round picks next year in trades. The 49ers gave their No. 1 pick next year to the Patriots, but got the Colts’ No. 1. The Texans gave away a No. 2 next year in the Matt Schaub trade. Now, the Cowboys and Patriots have good teams in 2007 along with having two No. 1s next year. That’s dangerous. As precious as draft choices are these days, maybe some of the teams are tipping off the class of 2008 might not be overly great.
Mel Kiper looks at the Good Decisions and Bad Decisions:
Five Good Decisions
1. At the start of the day, the Cleveland Browns were going to use the third overall pick on either Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas or Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn. At the end of the day, the Browns came away with both players. Credit Cleveland senior vice president and general manager Phil Savage for continuing to work the phones to land Quinn.
2. The Cincinnati Bengals had cornerback Leon Hall fall to them with the 18th overall pick. I had Hall rated higher than Darrelle Revis, who went to the New York Jets at No. 14. Getting Hall without having to trade up to get him turned out to be a very good move for the Bengals.
3. The Jacksonville Jaguars traded down from 17th to 21st in the first round and still got the player they wanted, Florida safety Reggie Nelson. Not only did the Jaguars get Nelson, but they also received a third- and sixth-round pick from the Denver Broncos in the deal.
4. After taking a tackling machine in linebacker Patrick Willis with the 11th pick, I liked seeing the San Francisco 49ers move back into the first round (trading for New England’s second first-round pick) and getting Joe Staley, one of the best offensive tackles in the draft. QB Alex Smith needs someone who’s going to protect his blind side Staley could do that for years to come.
5. Purdue’s Anthony Spencer went a bit higher than I had projected (26th overall), but he gives the Dallas Cowboys a great pass rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware.
Five Bad Decisions
1. There was no activity in terms of trades in the top 13 picks. Teams now are very reluctant to give up picks to move up in the draft. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers wanted wide receiver Calvin Johnson and they very well could have had him, but they weren’t willing to give up enough to get the best player in the draft. The first trade didn’t happen until the New York Jets traded up from 25th to 14th.
2. The Miami Dolphins taking Ted Ginn Jr. was ridiculous. Not only did they have QB Brady Quinn staring them in the face, but they weren’t going to have to trade up to get him. I understand Miami took QB John Beck in the second round, but Beck is not better than Quinn. Those two QBs will be measured against one another as time goes on.
3. The Tennessee Titans desperately needed help at wide receiver and could have used a defensive end. Instead, with the 19th pick in the first round they took Texas safety Michael Griffin. He’s not that versatile and can’t play cornerback despite being 5-11½, 205 pounds. They took Griffin when wide receivers Robert Meachem and Dwayne Bowe were still available. Tennessee then took RB Chris Henry in the second round, who I think is very iffy. He was a workout warrior, but he didn’t produce consistently at Arizona, and the Titans need a running back who can come in and play right away.
4. I was surprised the New York Giants took cornerback Aaron Ross instead of left tackle Joe Staley. The future of the Giants rides on QB Eli Manning staying upright, and Staley would have done a good job protecting Manning’s blind side.
5. The Philadelphia Eagles traded out of the first round with the Cowboys, who took defensive end Anthony Spencer. The Eagles used the 36th overall pick (their first pick in the draft) on Houston QB Kevin Kolb when QBs Drew Stanton, John Beck and Trent Edwards were all still on the board.
USA Today’s Sean Leahy picks his Winners and Losers:
WINNERS
– Cleveland: The Browns exited day one with two (Brady Quinn, Joe Thomas) of the five players rated highest entering the draft. GM Phil Savage and coach Romeo Crennel are fighting like there’s no tomorrow … which might be true for them if they don’t produce some wins.
– Detroit: Yes, they had other needs. But they scored Calvin Johnson. With all the jokes about Detroit and wide receivers aside, he can make an immediate impact for the Lions as a rookie.
– N.Y. Jets: They aggressively sought out two players who can start immediately for them — CB Darrelle Revis and LB David Harris. The maneuvers left Mangini’s crew with just two second-day picks, but the Jets certain they’ll have impact rookies at critical positions in 2007.
– Oakland: They got their big cat, JaMarcus Russell, and swung a deal with Detroit for Josh McCown to have a veteran QB ready for September. Then they got two more players (Zach Miller at tight end and Quentin Moses at defensive end) who should be able to start this year.
LOSERS:
– Denver: Did they really need to trade up four spots to pick Jarvis Moss? The Broncos yielded third- and sixth-round picks in the swap with the Jaguars. While Moss fits their need for a defensive end, they probably could have had him at No. 21.
– Houston: Amobi Okoye will help out a defense that is becoming stocked with good, young players. But what about the offensive line? Gary Kubiak must bring in help for the unit that couldn’t protect David Carr … or what shot does Matt Schaub have?
– Philadelphia: Not sure if anyone predicted Philadelphia would spend its first pick on a quarterback (Kevin Kolb of Houston). There were already two former starters on the roster behind the sometimes-embattled Donovan McNabb. Andy Reid has already said Kolb won’t compete for McNabb’s job, but does anyone expect Eagles fans not to take his selection as a sign that McNabb’s days are numbered?
– Miami: OK, the Dolphins passed on Brady Quinn because they thought John Beck at No. 40 gave them better value. But do they really think Ted Ginn Jr. is worth the No. 9 pick? Miami surely could have traded down and still selected the Ohio State product later in the first round. It’s a big investment on a return man whose receiving skills are no sure thing in the NFL.
The FootballOutsiders.com gang evaluates the Day 1 selections:
Mike Tanier does Round 1:
Round 1 of the 2007 draft is a wrap. If you found it long and tedious, at least you can take some small comfort in the fact that you aren’t Brady Quinn:
Best picks
Brady Quinn, QB, Browns
Quinn had a rough afternoon. When the Dolphins dissed him with the ninth pick overall, Commissioner Goodell sent him to a special isolation room so that gawkers couldn’t watch him squirm on two television networks. And by the way, Aaron Rodgers wants to know where that isolation room was when he slipped to the Packers two years ago.
Quinn is a lifelong Browns fan who was coached at Notre Dame by Charlie Weis, a long-time colleague of Browns coach Romeo Crennel. He’s NFL-ready in terms of work habits, footwork and game knowledge. He needs to work on his timing, but that’s a correctable flaw. By 2009, Quinn will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback.
If you don’t believe the scouting, believe the numbers. The Football Outsiders Quarterback Projection System believes that Quinn will be successful. The system is rarely wrong.
Patrick Willis, LB, 49ers
Jeff Ulbrich and Derek Smith are dependable veterans, but neither is really a playmaker, and both are getting old. Willis can line up on the edge as a pass rusher or play off the line as a traditional linebacker, so he’s a great fit in the Niners’ hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense. Willis’ work habits and willingness to shake off injuries will make him a Mike Nolan favorite. With Willis joining Nate Clements and Michael Lewis, the Niners suddenly have a very scary defense.
Reggie Nelson, S, Jaguars
This draft stuff really isn’t that difficult: identify a need, identify a player who can fill that need, and select him. If you can slide down a few picks and still get the player you want, so much the better. The Jaguars have a glaring need at safety — right now, their depth chart lists David Richardson, Gerald Sensabaugh, and Jamaal Fudge at the position — Nelson is a top-tier prospect, and the Jaguars were able to slip four spots and still nab him. The Panthers earn honorable mention for doing the same thing with linebacker Jon Beason; he’s good, he fills a need, and the Panthers got him at their price.
Worst picks
Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Dolphins
Ginn is a one-dimensional speed receiver. He’s about as comfortable working the middle of the field as he would be sleeping on a bed of broken glass. Ginn can’t beat a jam and doesn’t have great lateral quickness, so he’ll have a hard time getting open in the pros. In their hurry to draft him, the Dolphins passed up a much-needed quarterback of the future (Quinn) and ignored needs at linebacker and on the defensive line. The Colts drafted Ginn’s teammate Anthony Gonzalez with the final pick of the round. He’ll have a better career than Ginn, and not just because Peyton Manning will be throwing him the ball.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
Chris Rock used to do a routine about the tiger that attacked Siegfried and Roy. “That tiger didn’t go crazy,” Rock joked, “That tiger went tiger.” With the second overall pick, Matt Millen didn’t do something stupid. He did something Matt Millen. Johnson is a great prospect. With him and Roy Williams at wideout, the Lions will field the best possible Jon Kitna-helmed offense. Exactly how far do you think that will get them?
Biggest surprises
Brandon Meriweather, S, Patriots
Bill Belichick generally steers clear of high-risk players. Meriweather curb-stomped a kid during the Florida International fracas and was also involved in an on-campus shooting incident at Miami. Granted, Meriweather was defending his friend in the shooting, but the fact that he was casually packing heat on a July evening has got to be at least somewhat disturbing. On the field, Meriweather fits Belichick’s scheme as an all-purpose corner-safety in the Eugene Wilson mold. Off the field, it’s not clear exactly where he fits.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
Chester Taylor ran for 1,200 yards last season, so you might be wondering why Minnesota went this way. Wonder no more. Football Outsiders ranks Taylor as just the 33rd-best running back in the league based on DPAR, a stat that analyzes performance on a play-by-play basis. Long story short: Taylor is a nice complementary runner, but there is some fluff in his 2007 stat line. Peterson is a great runner with a long injury history and little experience as a receiver. Taylor is a good receiver who can be effective for eight carries per game in relief of Peterson. Sounds like a good platoon arrangement.
Jarvis Moss, DE, Broncos
The Broncos aren’t supposed to draft defensive lineman. They are supposed to get them from the Browns.
Ready to play
Adam Carriker, DE, Rams
Lots of first-round picks are ready to fill a role. Carriker is ready to do some dirty work. He’s a run-stopping defensive end, so he’ll be asked to do all the little things: fill cutback lanes, squeeze down the line and stack blockers at the point of attack. Gaines Adams and Jarvis Moss are going to get more sacks than Carriker as a rookie, but Carriker will have the biggest impact on a play-for-play basis. He’ll get a few sacks, too.
Michael David Smith does Round 2:
BEST PICKS
1. Buffalo general manager Marv Levy was reportedly interested in taking Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny with the Bills’ first-round pick. That he was still available in the second round (when Levy traded up to take him) makes him a tremendous value. Posluszny will be an immediate upgrade at linebacker for Buffalo.
2. The Miami Dolphins may regret passing on Brady Quinn in the first round, but they made a smart decision to draft BYU quarterback John Beck in the second round. Beck is a mature 26-year-old who is outstanding at reading defenses and using his feet to avoid the pass rush. It’s not clear yet whether Daunte Culpepper or Trent Green will be on the Dolphins’ roster next year, but Beck has a good chance of starting in Miami.
3. Cincinnati chose Auburn’s Kenny Irons, and he’ll be an excellent fit as their backup running back. Although he ran a mediocre 40-yard dash time at the scouting combine and has a history of injuries, he is an elusive runner who is a two-time first-team All-SEC player. He’ll have some big games for the Bengals.
WORST PICKS
1. The Chargers traded up to select Utah safety Eric Weddle, and they gave up way too much to get him. San Diego shipped a second-round pick, two thirds and a fifth to Chicago to get the pick it used for Weddle. If Weddle is anything other than a rookie of the year candidate in 2007, he wasn’t worth that high a price tag.
2. Jacksonville surprised a lot of people when it took Justin Durant of Hampton. Durant is one of the fastest linebackers in the draft, but he’s a project who will take a year or two to adjust to the NFL game. If the Jaguars want to catch up to the Colts in the AFC South, they need guys who can help them win now.
3. Brian Leonard of Rutgers is a good story because he was so integral to the turnaround of the Scarlet Knights’ football program, but he isn’t elusive enough as a runner to thrive in the NFL. He won’t do much for the Rams.
BIGGEST SURPRISES
1. The Philly fans at Radio City Music Hall neither booed nor cheered when the Eagles picked Houston quarterback Kevin Kolb. They gasped. No one could possibly have seen that selection coming. Kolb was a four-year starter at Houston who put up phenomenal numbers, but the Eagles’ front office didn’t exude much confidence in Donovan McNabb’s ability to stay healthy in the long run.
2. Ryan Kalil, the excellent center from USC, lasted all the way until the 59th pick, when the Carolina Panthers chose him. Although he’s a bit on the small side, Kalil is a technically sound player and a good locker room presence, and he was expected to be taken much earlier.
3. Minnesota hasn’t been happy with the last South Carolina wide receiver it selected, Troy Williamson. So it’s surprising that the Vikings selected another South Carolina wide receiver, Sidney Rice.
READY TO PLAY
1. The first pick of the second round, Michigan defensive tackle Alan Branch, will make an instant impact as an Arizona Cardinal. He fell in the draft because he has struggled with his weight and with stress fractures in his legs, but he was dominant at Michigan and should be in the Cardinals’ starting lineup Week 1.
2. USC wide receiver Dwayne Jarrett represents good value with the 45th overall pick. Jarrett will be a solid addition to the Carolina Panthers’ offense because he runs good routes and has good hands, and he’ll work well with both quarterback Jake Delhomme and the current pair of receivers in Carolina, Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson.
3. Tennessee offensive lineman Arron Sears can play both guard and tackle, and there’s no doubt that he’ll improve Tampa Bay’s offensive line in 2007.
OH BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?
No one is even mentioning the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Troy Smith of Ohio State. It’s no surprise that Smith is still waiting to hear his name (and likely will still be waiting at the end of the day today), but it is a reminder that the skills that make a quarterback successful in college often don’t translate to the NFL.
Tanier is back for Round 3:
BEST PICKS
Charles Johnson, defensive end, Panthers: Mike Rucker is coming off an injury and is on the downside. Julius Peppers’ contract will be up soon, and he’ll command ten cement mixers full of $100 bills on the open market. Johnson, a natural run defender with a good bull rush, is built to play on the strong side, where he can defeat tight ends and stuff ballcarriers. Until he settles into a starting job, he’ll play an important role as a rotation lineman. Rucker and Peppers can blow up any offensive line in the league when they are healthy and fresh. Johnson will keep them healthy and fresh.
Buster Davis, linebacker, Cardinals: The Cardinals trudged through yet another season with an over-the-hill middle linebacker last year. Orlando Huff is on his last legs, and the Cardinals need a young player with sideline-to-sideline range in the middle. If Davis were two inches taller, he would have been selected in the first round. Don’t let his height fool you: Davis is strong enough to play run defense, and he has great instincts and field vision. He’s a London Fletcher type with a chip on his shoulder and a great feel for the game.
Anthony Waters, linebacker, Chargers: Waters looked like a first round talent in his junior year, but he tore his ACL and missed all of the 2006 season. Waters still isn’t up to speed, so he won’t make much of a contribution this year. Who cares? The Chargers have plenty of talent on defense, so they can afford to redshirt a player who could be an impact performer by 2009. If some needy team took Waters, he would be a “worst pick.” The Chargers can afford to shop for luxury items.
WORST PICKS
Yamon Figurs, wide receiver, Ravens: Figurs is a skinny, undersized return specialist from Kansas State. Remember Darren Sproles? Sproles was more powerful and versatile than Figurs, but he had generally the same skill set. Sproles is still on the Chargers payroll, but he’s always hurt, and his tendency to fumble makes him a liability as a return man. Figurs has a reputation as a tough cookie and can help out as an all-around special teamer. The Ravens don’t have many holes, but that doesn’t mean they can afford to take a specialist with the 74th pick in the draft.
Tank Tyler, defensive tackle, Chiefs: The Chiefs have an awful track record with defensive tackles. They’ve spent high picks on recent years on Ryan Sims, Eddie Freeman, and Junior Savaii, none of whom really produced. Part of the problem is that Carl Peterson and his coaches are too enamored with Combine heroes. Savaii was a bench press hero, and so is Tyler, who benched 225 pounds 42 times at the Combine. Tyler dogged a bit at NC State, but Herm Edwards believes he can reach him, just as Dick Vermeil always believed he could motivate any even the biggest slug. Tyler isn’t a major reach in the third round, but he won’t solve any problems in Kansas City.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Tony Hunt, running back, Eagles: The Eagles have been taken over by the spores from Invasion of the Body Snatchers. First, they took a “quarterback of the future,” Kevin Kolb, after re-signing A.J. Feeley and picking up Kelly Holcomb to back up Donovan McNabb. Then, they selected a big, bruising change-up back for Brian Westbrook, something the team has needed since Duce Staley left town. We’re on to you, aliens: the real Andy Reid would never draft a short-yardage pile driver like Hunt. He’d draft a defensive tackle, then tell reporters how happy he is with Correll “the ACL” Buckhalter. The invasion force is coming, people. Head for the hills.
READY TO PLAY
Matt Spaeth, tght end, Steelers: The Steelers have an excellent young tight end named Heath Miller, so why did they select Spaeth? Two tight-end sets have become very popular in the NFL, and teams like the Patriots have demonstrated that you can do more than just run the ball with two big guys on the field. Spaeth is the best blocker in this year’s draft class, so he can stay at home to protect Ben Roethlisberger or seal off linebackers on running plays while Miller splits the seam. Spaeth is the second coming of Mark Breuener, a tough blocker who started for the Steelers for nearly a decade.
OH BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?
Michael Bush told reporters the week before the draft that he was 99 percent healthy. We can only guess that the unhealthy one percent includes his ACL, because Bush is still on the board as Saturday draws to a close. Bush looked like a monster at times for Louisville before breaking his leg, but teams may be scared away by the memory of Eric Shelton, a Louisville back drafted by the Panthers two years ago who quickly earned a reputation as a soft runner who would play through injuries.
Rick Gosselin gives out his Monday morning grades. He’s a tough scorer but seldom too far from the mark:
| Team |
Grade |
Comment |
Arizona |
C |
Taking Brown at No. 5 was a reach right off the bat, and so was selecting the undersized Davis in the third. The Cardinals only had three other picks in the draft, and two were in the sixth and seventh rounds. |
Atlanta |
B |
The Falcons had the best sixth round, landing an All-Big Ten blocker (Datish) and an All-SEC cover man (Irons). Atlanta had the best quantity draft, selecting 11 players and six potential starters. |
Baltimore |
B |
Good players always slide to the Ravens at the end of the first round: Ray Lewis, Todd Heap, Ed Reed and now Grubbs. He’ll be a Pro Bowler. Heisman Trophy winner Smith has the perfect QB mentor in Steve McNair. |
Buffalo |
B |
The Bills considered taking Posluszny in the first and wound up with him in the second. Lynch is an automatic starter, replacing Willis McGahee. Edwards is excellent QB insurance for J.P. Losman. |
Carolina |
A |
The Panthers had the best second round, grabbing two cornerstones of Southern California’s three-year national championship push in Jarrett and Kalil. The arrival of Johnson begins the rebuilding process up front. |
Chicago |
C |
Third-round picks Wolfe and Okwo were reaches. Beekman and Graham are bargains. The Bears did land the best pass-catching tight end in the draft in Olsen. That will make Rex Grossman a better quarterback. |
Cincinnati |
C |
The Bengals set out to fix the NFL’s 31st-ranked pass defense with the selections of Hall, White and Ndukwe, all big-school starters. This was a depth draft with Irons and Rowe now lining up behind Rudi Johnson and Carson Palmer. |
Cleveland |
B |
The Browns had the best first round, grabbing the draft’s best pass blocker (Thomas) plus a QB all of Cleveland believes is the next Bernie Kosar (Quinn). Wright has first-round talent, but character issues hurt him. |
Dallas |
D |
The Cowboys picked up an extra first-rounder in 2008, but that didn’t help them in this draft. Marten and Free are blue-collar blockers and those were two of the better picks. Stanback is coming off a foot injury. |
Denver |
D |
The Broncos had only four picks, and two had character flags – former Florida teammates Moss and Thomas. Denver is in dire need of some speed at end and hope they’ve found it in Moss and Crowder. |
Detroit |
A |
For the second consecutive April, the best player in the draft fell to the team drafting second. This year, the Lions were the beneficiary, snagging Johnson. Detroit took speed players in just about every round. |
Green Bay |
C |
The Packers had the best seventh round, selecting a 2,000-yard career rusher with 4.47 speed (Wynn) and a TE with 143 career catches (Harris). But they reached twice in the third round for Jones and Rouse. |
Houston |
C |
End Mario Williams needs some help up front in the NFL’s 24th-ranked defense, and the Texans gave it to him with the selection of Okoye. Both will develop into Pro Bowlers. Jones is an elite punt returner. |
Indianapolis |
C |
Considering the Colts were picking at the end of each round, this was really a quality draft for a championship team that needed to fill a few holes. Gonzalez inherits the slot position. Hughes should start at CB. |
Jacksonville |
C |
The Jaguars had the best fifth round, selecting three big school producers in blocker Nwaneri, tackler Landri and ballhawk Gattis. Nelson and Podlesh should be impact players as rookies. Smith has pass-rush skills. |
Kansas City |
B |
Solid from top to bottom. The first three picks should become starters. Smith gives the Chiefs running back insurance for Larry Johnson. Medlock was the best kicker in the draft, and Taylor could be a late bloomer. |
Miami |
B |
Ginn may have been a reach in the top 10, but Booker and Soliai were all value picks where the Dolphins found them. Mormino, Smith and Wright were the backbone of a superb second day. |
Minnesota |
A+ |
Peterson is now the favorite for NFL Rookie of the Year honors, and McCauley walks in as a starter for salary-cap casualty Fred Smoot. Allison and Williams bring speed to the flank, and Rice is a great red zone receiver. |
New England |
D |
The Patriots picked up an extra first- and third-round pick in the 2008 draft and wide receiver Randy Moss for 2007. But no picks in the second or third round prevented the Patriots from building momentum. |
New Orleans |
B |
The Saints drafted the two best non-combine players on the board, Young and Bushrod. Pittman was a steal in the fourth – some teams had him as the No. 3 back in the draft – and Meachem is a walk-in starter. |
N.Y. Giants |
C |
Ross upgrades the NFL’s 28th-ranked pass defense and a mediocre kick return unit on special teams. Smith takes the pressure off an aging Amani Toomer, and Koets could be a surprise candidate for the vacancy at left tackle. |
N.Y. Jets |
C |
It’s tough to produce a great draft when you have picks in just the first two rounds and the last two rounds. The Jets had to trade up to get Revis, the best cover man in the draft, and Harris is a good fit inside in a 3-4 defense. |
Oakland |
C |
Russell was a great start, but Henderson and Bowie were reaches based on the measurables. One’s big (Henderson) and the other has blinding speed (Bowie). Bush was a terrific gamble to take in the fourth. |
Philadelphia |
C |
The Eagles didn’t have a first-rounder but came away with four solid players the first day. Bradley might be the only starter in the bunch in 2007. Kolb provides insurance for the injury-prone Donovan McNabb. |
Pittsburgh |
B |
Just because Bill Cowher is gone doesn’t mean the history of great linebackers in Steel Town left with him. Pittsburgh used its first two picks on linebackers with pass-rush skills, and Sepulveda steps into a great situation. |
San Diego |
D |
The first two picks were reaches to fill needs, and third-rounder Anthony Waters is coming off a serious knee injury. The best value pick may have been Siler in the seventh by a team that covets LBs. |
San Francisco |
C |
The 49ers had the best third round, selecting an All-SEC defensive end (McDonald) and a deep threat (Hill) who averaged 18.3 yards per catch in his career. Brown has first-day ability but character concerns pushed him down. |
St. Louis |
C |
The NFL’s 31st-ranked run defense gets beefed up with the 296-pound Carriker and the 310-pound Ryan. Wade has 4.36 speed, always handy when you play in a dome, and could push for a starting spot. |
Seattle |
C |
The Seahawks had the best fourth round, landing four-year, big-school starters Atkins and Wrotto to fortify the lines. Considering Seattle didn’t make a pick until 55, this was a superb effort. |
Tampa Bay |
C |
Adams and Sears loom as immediate starters at the top of the draft but, like the Cowboys, the Buccaneers reached for too many players hoping for home runs. Some could become fly outs. |
Tennessee |
A |
The Titans found good players in every round without having to reach. More teams should try that approach. Harris in the fourth, Filani in the sixth and Otto in the seventh all could be steals. The Titans draft big-school production. |
Washington |
D |
Let’s face it, the Redskins don’t like drafting. They had a first-rounder and didn’t pick again until the fifth. Owner Daniel Snyder believes you build a team through free agency, not the draft, and that shows every April. |
The venerable Mel Kiper:
Arizona Cardinals: GRADE: B-
Once Joe Thomas was gone, the Cardinals had to make a decision whether to take Adrian Peterson or Levi Brown. Peterson would have been a luxury pick, which they couldn’t afford to do, and Brown fills a hole. Arizona must improve its offensive line. There were quite a few teams that didn’t think there was a lot that separated Brown from Thomas. Brown has a nasty streak and can play either tackle position. For the second straight year, Arizona took an underachieving defensive tackle from Michigan. Alan Branch has great physical skills but was an underachiever. He will either be a boom or a bust. Linebacker Buster Davis was a decent third-round pick, and Steve Breaston was a really nice choice in the fifth round because of his return skills and should pay dividends in the return game. Tight end Ben Patrick is a potential steal in the seventh round. He needs to work on his concentration and catching the ball, but Patrick could have gone in the third round and no one would have argued.
Atlanta Falcons: GRADE: B
Defensive end Jamaal Anderson was really the only option with Joe Thomas and Levi Brown gone. Plus, Anderson fills a need on defense. Justin Blalock is a big body up front and can play either guard or tackle. Cornerback Chris Houston would have been a risky pick in the in first round, but he presents good value in the second round. WR Laurent Robinson has a lot of talent, but is raw and needs to show he can make the tough catch in traffic. I thought taking him in the third round was a little high, but he does have ability. I really liked what Atlanta did Sunday. Stephen Nicholas has a very good shot to be a productive linebacker. I also liked the pick of TE Martrez Milner in the fourth round. He needs to work on his pass-catching skills, but he is a very good blocker. David Irons, at best, is a reserve defensive back; center Doug Datish could have gone in the third round, and he will provide some versatility, and Daren Stone is a developmental safety and special-teams player.
Baltimore Ravens: GRADE: B
Ben Grubbs is a great pick and pure guard. Yamon Figurs has speed to burn and will be the returner the Ravens need with B.J. Sams coming off an injury and being a free agent after 2007. Grubbs will start right away, and Marshal Yanda possibly also could start at guard or right tackle. Antwan Barnes is a typical hybrid combination between a defensive end and outside linebacker. Le’Ron McClain was the best pure fullback in the draft. Not only does he fill a need, but he could start since the Ravens lost Ovie Mughelli in free agency. This was a good organization for Troy Smith to go to as a developmental quarterback. He also could push Kyle Boller, who will be a free agent after 2007. Prescott Burgess had a nice career at Michigan, and getting him in the sixth round is a nice move because Burgess should have a solid NFL career.
Buffalo Bills: GRADE: B
The Bills had no choice but to go after Marshawn Lynch with the loss of Willis McGahee. Paul Posluszny could be a middle linebacker or OLB, making up for the loss of London Fletcher. Running back Dwayne Wright was a very good fourth-round pick if he can stay healthy. Down the road, Trent Edwards could give J.P. Losman some competition. And if Edwards develops in two or three years, the Bills could trade him, similar to what Atlanta did with Matt Schaub. John Wendling is a very athletic safety and was a good sixth-round pick. Derek Schouman is a pass-catching tight end with limited blocking skills.
Carolina Panthers: GRADE: B
I’m not enamored with linebacker Jon Beason, but he has the ability to be a team leader because he has a great attitude. I do like the fact that Carolina traded down to get Beason even though the Panthers were very high on him. The Panthers did a good job in the second round, getting WR Dwayne Jarrett and center Ryan Kalil. I thought Georgia defensive end Charles Johnson was a steal in the third round. Ryne Robinson was one of the better returners in the draft; Dante Rosario is a backup tight end; Tim Shaw, at worst, is a backup linebacker, and C.J. Wilson could be a decent backup cornerback.
Chicago Bears: GRADE: B
The Bears didn’t expect Greg Olsen to be available that late in the first round; he’ll give Rex Grossman a solid pass-catching tight end. Defensive end Dan Bazuin is perfect for the Bears’ scheme. Garrett Wolfe showed he could catch the ball during his workouts and has the potential to be a good returner even though he wasn’t asked to return kicks in college. Wolfe will be a good change-of-pace running back and potentially could be a very valuable part of this organization. Michael Okwo is undersized for a linebacker, but he runs well and is a smart player. In the fourth round, Chicago got really good value in Josh Beekman. He can play center but will be a guard on this offensive line. Kevin Payne is a versatile safety who makes plays and was a good fifth-round pick; Corey Graham will fight for a roster spot at cornerback and on special teams. Cornerback Trumaine McBride is a marginal prospect.
Cincinnati Bengals: GRADE: C+
Picking Michigan CB Leon Hall without having to trade up to get him turned out to be very good value for the Bengals. Running back Kenny Irons could have been a first-round pick but couldn’t stay healthy his senior season at Auburn. Safety Marvin White was not a bad fourth-round pick; Jeff Rowe was a system quarterback at Nevada, and I didn’t like this pick because there were better quarterbacks still on the board; Matt Toeaina is a good fit for Cincy’s defensive line because he can play defensive end or tackle. Hall was a very good pick, but the Bengals did not do much else to improve on defense.
Cleveland Browns: GRADE: B+
The Browns were going to use the third overall pick on Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas or Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn. At the end of the day, the Browns came away with both players. From a pure talent standpoint, getting CB Eric Wright in the second round is good value. Wright had first-round talent — you could argue he’s better than Leon Hall and Darrelle Revis — but slid because of character issues. Cornerback Brandon McDonald played under the radar at Memphis; and Melila Purcell has the skills to be a pass-rushing specialist. DT Chase Pittman will be a hardworking backup. The Browns did, however, give up a lot of picks in this draft.
Dallas Cowboys: GRADE: B
Purdue’s Anthony Spencer — who I think has a chance to be the rookie of the year — gives Dallas a great pass-rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware. James Marten provides good security behind tackle Flozell Adams, who will be a free agent after next season. Isaiah Stanback will move from QB to wide receiver, and I really liked the pick of tackle Doug Free in the fourth round because he has a lot of talent. Dallas took place-kicker Nick Folk when Mason Crosby was still on the board; Deon Anderson will be an excellent lead blocker at fullback, and Courtney Brown has the necessary skills to be a developmental cornerback.
Denver Broncos: GRADE: B-
The Broncos tried to strengthen the defensive line, starting with Jarvis Moss in the first round. In the Broncos’ system, he has a chance to get 10-12 sacks next season. Tim Crowder, if he can be more consistent, has a chance to be really good. Denver rolled the dice on former Florida DT Marcus Thomas. No question about his talent — he spent a lot of time this year on my Big Board — but character issues caused him to drop. If he stays focused, Denver got a steal in the fourth round. Offensive tackle Ryan Harris had a first-round grade in August, but his stock dropped and Denver grabbed him in the third round.
Detroit Lions: GRADE: C
It would have been tough to pass on Calvin Johnson, the best prospect in the draft. Drew Stanton will be measured against Brady Quinn because the Lions could have taken the Notre Dame QB. Stanton could be a decent starter, but he does not have a lot of upside. Ikaika Alma-Francis is a very good, but very raw, defensive end. Alma-Francis has a lot of talent and potential, and a lot of teams had a high opinion of him. Safety Gerald Alexander was a reach in the second round; A.J. Davis could be a good nickel or dime cornerback; Manuel Ramirez was a nice fourth-round pick who will be a starting guard in the NFL; and Johnny Baldwin was a good small-school linebacker at Alabama A&M who will be a good backup and special-teams player.
Green Bay Packers: GRADE: C+
Defensive tackle Justin Harrell didn’t fill need, but the Packers chose the best available player over need. Harrell was hurt most of his senior season, but that didn’t hurt his stock much. RB Brandon Jackson, if he can build on his strong finish to 2006, has a chance to be Green Bay’s starting running back. James Jones was a decent third-round pick, a good wide receiver with natural receiving skills; safety Aaron Rouse is just an OK third-round pick; offensive tackle Allen Barbre is a bit overrated because he doesn’t play as well as he tested during workouts. WR David Clowney has a lot of speed, and inside linebackers Korey Hall and Desmond Bishop should make it in the NFL as backups. Place-kicker Mason Crosby was a really good find in the sixth round. He has a great leg and has kicked in all kinds of weather playing at Colorado and in the Big 12. Crosby is not a product of the altitude in Colorado. I also liked the Packers’ seventh-round picks: RB Deshawn Wynn from Florida and Rutgers tight end Clark Harris.
Houston Texans: GRADE: C-
The Texans took defensive tackle Travis Johnson in 2005, and he hasn’t played up to his potential. They took DT Amobi Okoye when they should have been looking at a cornerback such as Leon Hall or Darrelle Revis. Also, they didn’t do much to help new QB Matt Schaub on offense. Wide receiver Jacoby Jones played at Lane College, and tackle Brandon Frye and guard Kasey Studdard look more like backups than starters. This turned out to be a typical Houston draft. The Texans didn’t help David Carr when he was their QB, and they didn’t do much to help Schaub. Cornerback Fred Bennett was a good pick in the fourth round, and I really like linebacker Zach Diles. He had two productive years at Kansas State and might have flown under some teams’ radar. Getting Diles in the seventh round was a good move.
Indianapolis Colts: GRADE: B-
The Texans should take a page from the Colts. They win the Super Bowl and what do they do in the first round? Give Peyton Manning another weapon on offense by taking WR Anthony Gonzalez. This was a great pick, replacing Brandon Stokley in the Colts’ arsenal. Tony Ugoh could be the heir apparent to Tarik Glenn at left tackle, and I really like wide receiver Roy Hall, Gonzalez’s teammate at Ohio State. On defense, Daymeion Hughes doesn’t have great speed, but in the Colts’ scheme, he could excel. Defensive end Quinn Pitcock is a tough, hard-nosed player who gets the job done; safety Brannon Condren was a bit of a reach in the fourth round, and fifth-round pick Michael Coe has the chance to be a good developmental cornerback.
Jacksonville Jaguars: GRADE: C
The Jaguars needed a playmaking safety. They not only got Florida’s Reggie Nelson but traded down and still got the player they wanted in addition to draft picks. Linebacker Justin Durant (second round) went a little early, but I know Jacksonville really liked him. Wide receiver Mike Walker (third) also went earlier than I expected, but he does have a nice combination of size and speed. Not only do I like punter Adam Podlesh’s strong leg, but he runs a 4.45 40 time, which will force defenses to always be thinking about a fake punt. Linebacker Brian Smith has some pass-rush abilities, but I also thought he would go later than the fourth round. Uche Nwaneri as a guard or center made sense in the fifth round. Josh Gattis is an intriguing safety because he had a good 2006 at Wake Forest only to lose that momentum in the months leading up to the draft. Still, Gattis has a cha
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