Surgery on Hold; Benson to Rehab his Shoulder

As reported in the Baltimore Sun today:

Orioles pitcher Kris Benson will put off surgery to repair his torn right rotator cuff and instead undergo a rehabilitation process, which could last a month, in a final attempt to pitch in 2007, a baseball source said last night.

Dr. James Andrews examined Benson’s shoulder yesterday in Birmingham, Ala. It was the third opinion sought by the Orioles’ pitcher. A member of the New York Mets’ medical staff recently recommended that Benson have surgery, but Andrews provided a small glimmer of hope.

If the rehab doesn’t change the condition of Benson’s shoulder, he will have the surgery and most likely miss the season. Waiting a few more weeks wouldn’t delay his return.

Benson’s desperation to pitch in 2007 is in an effort to either get his option for 2008 picked up or to get a free agent contract at season’s end when his current deal expires. The temptation is to call it guts or heart or courage. In reality if his salary for 2008 was guaranteed, Benson would heed the sagacious opinions of the previous two doctor’s who said get it fixed surgically and then rehabbed at his leisure. Other pitchers have tried to baby shoulders with comparable damage, including Benson’s former teammate Pedro Martinez. While with the Red Sox, the damage to Martinez’ shoulder was first detected, and rather than sit and have surgery, he opted for rehab and a lighter workload. That decision caught up with him last season. Martinez’ torn labrum required surgery late last season, and he is currently rehabbing in the hopes of returning this season.

Dr. Andrews is not ruling out surgery, just suggesting that rehab might heal Benson’s arm sufficiently to pitch this season. The question Benson must answer is whether he feels it is wise to forgo a more certain course of recovery for the short term gain of possibly pitching this season. It is not as if the loss of Benson doomed Baltimore’s AL East Title chances. His injury meant more innings at a little below league average than slightly above league average. Therefore the only people who stand to gain or lose with Benson’s attempts to pitch this season are Benson himself and his family. The decision to pitch is choosing short term gain and long term loss.

Benson has often found the center of attention because of the outrageous behavior of his wife, Anna. Anna Benson, who spends most of her time involved in her modeling career and humanitarian activities, sparked controversy by comments made to Howard Stern about how she would repay her husband if he ever cheated on her.

Framed in light of the contract set to expire at season’s end and the turmoil that has been a near constant distraction during his professional playing career, Benson’s actions appear more and more like a man struggling to stay in a game that might pass him by if he has surgery and takes the four to five months necessary to rehab. It is a stark contrast to the decision made by Octavio Dotel who in 2005 decided to undergo Tommy John surgery to repair his injured elbow and risk free agency coming off major arm surgery the following season. Dotel this offseason signed a lucrative contract with the Kansas City Royals.

Via David Pinto at Baseball Musings.

Keith Foulke to Hang ‘Em Up

A radio report out of Cleveland gives no reason why Foulke is deciding to retire and abandon a $5 million salary.

Pitchers and catchers reported to Winter Haven today, all but one of them that is. Keith Foulke will announce his retirement, ending the closer competition before the first practice session even took place. Joe Borowski will be the Tribe 9th inning man after Foulke decided to call it quits. Even though it was called a competition, Foulke was the guy most expected to win the job and be the team’s stopper, the role he had with the Boston Red Sox when they won the World Series in 2004.

Foulke had three rocky years in Boston, highlighted by his remarkable playoff performance in the 2004 ALCS and World Series. As powerful as Manny Ramirez’ bat was, Foulke’s gutty performances were truly the most valuable for the Red Sox as they won that season’s World Series. The following two injury riddled seasons seemed to deflate Keith Foulke, and some quarters of Red Sox fandom soured on the one time hero of the team.

In ten major league seasons Foulke had a 41-34 record with 190 saves and a ERA of 3.30. He didn’t do it with power, instead relying on a deceptive change up to fool batters.

Baseball Preview: Oakland A’s

This and next month, Outside the Beltway Sports will be taking a trip around the Major Leagues profiling the 30 major league teams. We continue today with the Oakland A’s, who finished atop their division for the fourth time in the last seven years.

Oakland A’s

Last season: 93-69 won AL West, lost in ALCS
Manager: Bob Geren

Meet the new guys

MGR Bob Geren, DH Mike Piazza, LF Shannon Stewart, RP Alan Embree, RP David Shafer, 2B Donnie Murphy

Gone and hardly remembered

SP Barry Zito (to San Francisco), DH Frank Thomas (to Toronto), RF Jay Payton (to Baltimore), SP Jerome Williams (to Washington), SP Kirk Saarloos (to Cincinnati)

And now your starting lineup

1. CF Mark Kotsay
2. LF Nick Swisher
3. RF Milton Bradley
4. DH Mike Piazza
5. 3B Eric Chavez
6. SS Bobby Crosby
7. 1B Dan Johnson
8. 2B Mark Ellis
9. C Jason Kendall

Bench

OF Shannon Stewart
OF Bobby Kielty
IF Marco Scutaro
C Adam Melhuse
IF Antonio Perez
1B/DH Erubiel Durazo

There are holes no doubt. Jason Kendall had a nearly unredeemable season with the bat last year. Mark Ellis struggled at the start of the season. Bobby Crosby hasn’t had a healthy season since 2004. And Dan Johnson did not hit enough to keep his starting job. They can score runs. Swisher, Bradley, Piazza and Chavez are good run producers and Kotsay gets on base with enough consistency. The A’s could use more steady hitters, but as Billy Beane has noted, with his budget, you get flawed players. The bench is stocked with average to slightly better players. Some, like Stewart and Durazo, are coming off of injuries, and may be able to become difference makers given a clean bill of health and a chance to contribute. They aren’t going to score 850 runs, but they won’t need to.

Rotation

1. Rich Harden
2. Danny Haren
3. Joe Blanton
4. Esteban Loaiza
5. Joe Kennedy
6. Brad Halsey

Bullpen

Closer Huston Street
Justin Duchscherer
Kiko Calero
Alan Embree
Dan Meyer
Chad Gaudin

Barry Zito took his consistent track record of success and durability to San Francisco. But the A’s still have a remarkably solid rotation. The biggest question mark is the health of Rich Harden. Harden’s arm is live and his skill is undeniable, but his fragility has frustrated the A’s the last several years. Danny Haren and Joe Blanton remain quality and inexpensive arms. Esteban Loaiza was injured early last year, and it showed in his ineffectiveness. He pitched well in August and September. Joe Kennedy has been used primarily in a bullpen role since coming to Oakland. Last year’s very good 2.31 ERA (2.57 RA) in 35 innings of lefty specialist work has given Oakland confidence in putting him into a starting role. The bullpen remains solid, anchored by setup man Justin Duchscherer, who filled in at closer for the injured Huston Street for a month and stabilized the pen. He battled a few injuries, as well. Kiko Calero had another good year in Oakland’s pen. His rising walk and hit rates are a little worrisome, but he also increased his K rates, and as long as Calero can continue to dot hat, he’ll be just fine. Alan Embree enjoyed a renaissance in ’06. His lost 2005 season may have been due to dead arm from all the innings he worked out of the pen in Boston’s World Series run the previous year. He inherits the lefty specialist role from Kennedy. The A’s figure to break in Meyer in the pen. He was battered in ten starts in AAA last season, and the notoriously hitter friendly Pacific Coast League is not as pleasant an environment as pitching in relief in a very pitching friendly ball park.

Help is on the way…

Top prospect Daric Barton figures to find his way to the other city by the Bay one of these days. He had a solid season in AA ball in 2005, but shoulder woes slowed him down last season. He’s healthy this spring, and while likely ticketed for AAA, a hot spring would make him an extremely attractive option at first base. Johnson’s difficult ’06 campaign was marred by injuries as well, but Barton figures to be the long term solution at first. It will be his job to lose next season, and maybe even by this year’s All-Star break.

Other prospects who may be called on
Kurt Suzuki is just as likely to supplant Jason Kendall behind the dish this year. Suzuki has posted great numbers as he has marched through the Athletics organization. His stop last season at AA showed improved defensive ability and that tantalizing combination of doubles power and excellent plate discipline. Outfielder Travis Buck has the highest ceiling of Oakland’s current minor leaguers. A sports hernia hurt him last year, but he still managed a combine line of .320/.385/.521 between advanced A ball and AA. Oakland’s outfield is crowded, but Buck’s progress will land him in right field fairly soon.

Outlook

Oakland has slipped a little from last year’s division winner. But they had lots of room for improvement within last year’s roster. The defections of Frank Thomas and Barry Zito left gaps, but the A’s filled the Thomas gap with Mike Piazza. The Zito gap will be filled with Joe Kennedy, who while not as durable as Zito, profiles similarly. He relies on control and his defense getting outs for him. If Kennedy can take the success he has enjoyed in the bullpen and pitch effectively as a starter, then that gap will have been filled as well. Oakland can ill afford more injuries to key players like Crosby or Harden. Both have been bitten by the injury bug before and need full seasons to propel the A’s to a successful defense of their AL West title. How Bob Geren handles running Billy Beane’s team on a day to day basis is another question. If he works well with Beane, then it could be a very happy year for Oakland fans who would love to see a return to the World Series.

Predicted finish 95-67 first place AL West

Baseball Preview: New York Mets

This and next month, Outside the Beltway Sports will be taking a trip around the Major Leagues profiling the 30 major league teams. We continue today with The New York Mets – who along with the Yankees had the best record in baseball in 2006.

New York Mets

Last season: 97-65 won NL East, lost NLCS to St. Louis
Manager: Willie Randolph

Meet the new guys

RF Moises Alou, IF Damion Easley, SP Chan Ho Park, RP Scott Schoeneweis, RP Jorge Sosa

Gone and hardly remembered

RP Chad Bradford (to Baltimore), LF Cliff Floyd (to Chicago Cubs), RP Roberto Hernandez (to Cleveland), RP Darren Oliver (to LA Dodgers), SP Steve Trachsel (to Baltimore), 2B Chris Woodward (to Atlanta)

And now your starting lineup

1. SS Jose Reyes
2. C Paul LoDuca
3. CF Carlos Beltran
4. 1B Carlos Delgado
5. 3B David Wright
6. LF Moises Alou
7. RF Shawn Green
8. Jose Valentin
9. Pitcher

Bench

OF Endy Chavez
OF Ben Johnson
IF/OF Julio Franco
IF Damion Easley
C Ramon Castro
OF/IF David Newhan

The Mets lineup is a nice mix of dynamic young players and excellent older vets. Wright and Reyes give the Mets young talented and inexpensive hitters that complement Beltran. Delgado is the heavy hitter to bring in the table setters. Alou and Green are not counted on to be anchors. It is reasonable that Green is just placeholding until Lastings Milledge is ready for primetime. He showed flashes last season but not enough to warrant the job full time this year. A really impressive spring may change some minds. The weakest non-pitcher link is Valentin, who was as recently as 2004 capable of poking out homeruns with a remarkable frequency for a middle infielder, even lead gloved middle infielders. The bench features the ageless Julio Franco and retreads like Easley, Chavez and Newhan. Johnson was considered a top Padres prospect, but his status dropped last year. He is capable of filling in for Alou or Green if they go down with injury.

Rotation

1. Tom Glavine
2. Orlando Hernandez
3. John Maine
4. Olive Perez
5. Chan Ho Park
6. Aaron Sele
7. Pedro Martinez (DL) – Due back in August

Bullpen

Closer Billy Wagner
Duaner Sanchez
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Jorge Sosa
Pedro Feliciano
Guillermo Mota (serving 50 game suspension beginning opening day)

The bullpen is the strength, and with the addition of Schoeneweis they can weather the departure of Chad Bradford. The rotation is a dodgy proposition. They will audition Perez, Park and Sele as well as top propsects Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber for rotation spots. The Mets benefit though from the good hitters and the deep bullpen, and when Pedro returns he will be the best trade deadline acquisition in the league. He won’t cost anything and he should be solidly above average. Glavine anchors the current rotation followed by Franco’s fellow ageless wonder Orlando Hernandez. Then come the question marks. John Maine should be number three. Chan Ho Park effectively replaces Steve Trachsel. And that leaves Oliver Perez to round it out. Unless Aaron Sele beats one of them out this spring. Wagner, Sanchez and Heilman are very good in high leverage situations. Shortening ballgames to six innings is advantageous and the Mets will be able to do that in at least fifty games next year.

Help is on the way…

Top prospect Mike Pelfrey has all the makings of a harder throwing Brandon Webb. He gets groundballs easily with a hard sinking fastball. And when he dials it up a bit, he can blow it past them. His progress last season was remarkable getting him four starts late last season. He was roughed up a bit, which is not surprising for a 22 year old kid in his first pro season. This year, Pelfrey could break camp with the big club or spend a month or two in AAA. Regardless, he will be in the Mets rotation at some point this summer.

Other prospects who may be called on
Lastings Mililedge was a mixed bag in Queens last year. No one is ready to write him off, but no one is ready to hand him the job in rightfield. He has the tools and the talent. He needs more discipline, but that will come. He may fill in this season, but I expect Chavez and Johnson to keep him in AAA for a full year of seasoning. Phil Humber went from top draft pick to Tommy John surgery to highly rated prospect in a three year whirlwind that culminated in two hitless innings for the big club last year. Humber has a knee buckling curveball and good velocity on his fastball. He was recovering for much of last season and should be fully healthy this year. The Mets owe it to themselves to give him as long a look as they can afford to give this spring. Fernando Martinez will not be making any appearances at Shea, but succeeds Mililedge as the young toolsy outfielder with a great swing and the necessary make up to play in the bigs. He is easily their highest upside farm prospect. And should be ready for the bigs in 2010. Just after his 21st birthday.

Outlook

They have definitely slipped. Pedro was not vintage in ’06, but losing him for most of ’07 hurts the Mets more than anything else. They have a powerful offense. A team more constructed for the AL than the NL in terms of run production. Their bullpen is deep, flexible and good. When Mota returns in late May, they will have six above average to excellent arms in the pen. The Mets will have to piece together their rotation until Pedro is healthy. At first glance it is a daunting proposition. But with their potent offense and a reliable bullpen, it is more than manageable. Their season relies on a number of ifs. If Oliver Perez pitches like he did a few years ago when he was a rookie. If John Maine can build on his good starts. If ageless wonders Julio Franco and Orlando Hernandez can keep on producing at the big league level. If Pedro is effective when he comes back. If he comes back. The Mets have enduring questions. They have one huge advantage. They were so far ahead of their division, that even with the slippage, they have not likely yielded their advantage. GM Omar Minaya rewarded Willie Randolph with a new contract. Mets fans will see if both of them are worth it this season, which will be the most challenging one in either of their tenures in Queens.

Predicted finish 93-69 Good for first in a tough NL East.

Baseball Preview: Detroit Tigers

This and next month, Outside the Beltway Sports will be taking a trip around the Major Leagues profiling the 30 major league teams. We continue today with last season’s World Series runner up.

Detroit Tigers

Last season: 95-67 AL Wildcard, Won AL Pennant Lost World Series
Manager: Jim Leyland

Meet the new guys

OF Gary Sheffield, RP Jose Mesa

Gone and hardly remembered

SP Humberto Sanchez (to New York Yankees), RP Troy Percival (retired), RF Alexis Gomez (to Colorado), RP Jamie Walker (to Baltimore), RF Matt Stairs (to Toronto)

And now your starting lineup

1. CF Curtis Granderson
2. 2B Placido Polanco
3. C Ivan Rodriguez
4. DH Gary Sheffield
5. RF Magglio Ordonez
6. SS Carlos Guillen
7. 1B Sean Casey
8. LF Craig Monroe
9. 3B Brandon Inge

Bench

OF Marcus Thames
1B/OF Chris Shelton
C Vance Wilson
IF Neifi Perez
IF Omar Infante

The big bat in the middle of the order was missing. The Tigers jumped quickly dealing for Gary Sheffield and signing him to a contract extension. That hole in the order is fixed. In addition, the Tigers re-upped both Sean Casey and Brandon Inge, useful complementary players who round out their potent lineup. This team will score runs. In addition there is depth. Chris Shelton and Marcus Thames provide power off the bench. Vance Wilson hits adequately when he spells Pudge Rodriguez. Infante and Perez are relatively useless with their bats but field the middle infield positions well and can spell the better hitting Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco when they need to rest. Guillen remains the key though to the lineup. He represents the player they can least afford to lose. They cannot replace his offense or his leadership. His injury late last season gave Minnesota the opening they needed to win the division.

Rotation

1. Jeremy Bonderman
2. Kenny Rogers
3. Justin Verlander
4. Nate Robertson
5. Mike Maroth
6. Zach Miner

Bullpen

Closer Todd Jones
Joel Zumaya
Fernando Rodney
Jose Mesa
Wilfredo Ledezma
Jason Grili

As impressive as the batters are, Detroits pitching is deep, efficient and potent. Bonderman fronts the staff, which has a nice mix of established vets like Rogers and fresh talent like Verlander. Verlander may be the best of the staff. He held up solidly through the season, even though he threw many more innings than he had previously thrown. Robertson and Rogers were solidly above average. Bonderman, despite a spell of ineffectiveness near the end of the season was the anchor of the staff. Maroth is coming back from an injury shortened season. He and Miner will compete for the last sport in the rotation. Andrew Miller, less than one year removed from college, should start at AAA Toledo, but may be in the mix as well. The bullpen is just as effective. Rodney and Zumaya are hard throwing setup men. Jones is a dependable ninth inning guy. Mesa gives Leyland another seventh/eighth inning guy. The Tigers, interestingly have crafted a bullpen that defies the logical conventions, while maintaining them. The best pitchers are Rodney and Zumaya, and they toil in the seventh and eighth innings, putting out the small fires so Jones has fewer to deal with. Ledezma and Grili round out the relief corps and can expect 30-40 innings worth of work each. They both bettered league average out of the pen last season.

Help is on the way…

Top prospect Andrew Miller‘s contract called for a late season callup. His first taste of big league play came less than three months after pitching the North Carolina Tar Heels to the College World Series Championship game. And he had a rude introduction in eight relief outings, he gave up nine runs and walked ten. He also gave up less than a hit per inning. He needs to work on his control, as well as having a better plan to go after big league hitters. The talent is there. As was the contract demands that scared off enough teams to allow Miller to fall to the Motor City Kitties. They got a steal. He could easily be starting for the Tigers by the All-Star Break.

Other prospects who may be called on
Remember Cameron Maybin. The 19-year old (turns 20 on April 4th) centerfielder completed his first full pro season in A ball and what a year it was. In 487 at bats, Maybin wrapped out 20 doubles, six triples and nine homeruns. His .304/.387/.457 line won him the Midwest League batting title. The Tigers let him develop at West Michigan, keeping tabs on his progress and did not advance him to Advanced A Ball in Lakeland. He might start there or just as likely jump Advanced A and see how he responds to AA pitching. They have no need to rush him, but his considerable talent is tantalizing. The Tigers best and most ready prospects are unsurprisingly pitchers. Jair Jurrens pitched effectively at Erie, but would look much better with more strikeouts. Jordan Tata‘s low K rates are becoming a concern, his cup of coffee with the big club illustrated. Among batters, Brent Cleven has some pop in his bat and good on base skills, but his batting average last season in AA was .230. He is a mixed bag at best, but could fill in for a couple of weeks if there are concurrent injuries to multiple outfielders. Promoting top prospects (Verlander, Zumaya) and trading them for big league talent (Humberto Sanchez) thins your farm system. Detroit has two special prospects in Miller and Maybin. And they may find a few gems on the farm. But the cupboard is a little bare.

Outlook

Detroit has an improved team. Sheffield alters the entire dynamic of facing the Tiger lineup. With healthy seasons from Guillen and Rodriguez, Detroit will be back in the postseason. With Minnesota’s diminished pitching staff and the tinkering the White Sox are doing, the close competition has slipped. Detroit is the prohibitive favorite to win the AL Central. As with last year’s team, the pitching will carry Detroit. With talented younger pitchers like Zach Miner and Andrew Miller as understudies, Mike Maroth (or Miner for that matter) could be dealt for young talent capable of stepping in this season or next. Would Atlanta consider taking on Maroth and Miner in exchange for catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia? They’d have to think about it, especially if Mike Hampton and Kyle Davies falter. The pitching surplus puts the Tigers in the excellent position of having options to fix any holes that may develop in their roster.

Predicted finish 98-64 First place going away in the AL Central.

Oriole’s Benson Tears Rotator Cuff

Stick a fork in him, he’s likely done for 2007.

Orioles pitcher Kris Benson has a torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder and will almost certainly miss the 2007 season.

A recent MRI exam revealed a partial tear, Benson’s agent, Gregg Clifton said Monday. The injury will require surgery, but the procedure has not yet been scheduled.

Benson has never lived up to his amazing potential. In his early years with Pittsburgh he flirted with brilliance only to stumble and scuffle. Benson’s injury opens a spot in the rotation for either Adam Loewen or Hayden Penn, one of whom was likely to win a spot in the roation coming out of spring.

Loewen pitched fairly well last season in partial duty in Baltimore. Penn was thankfully limited a handful of poor outings. This likely marks the end of Kris Benson’s time in Baltimore. 2007 was the last guaranteed year for Benson. The Orioles are unlikely to pick up his option for 2008. And if Penn or Loewen work out, the Orioles would have little incentive to bring Benson back even on a reduced salary.

Baseball’s Postseason

This article appeared on my personal blog on October 13, 2006. With regular season baseball seven weeks away, and the post season further down the line, I’m reprinting it here to give some food for thought on baseball’s postseason tournament. The postseason cannot equitably determine the best team of the partcipants. Given the variables involved in winning a baseball game consistently, it would take hundreds of games to equitably determine the best team of the postseason participants. In light of that, my proposal maximizes the marketing benefit, by sacrificing the competitive aspects of a postseason tournament. Purists beware.

Bruce Regal opines that the wild card is broke and needs fixing today over at The Baseball Analysts. The heart of his proposal is this.

I propose that instead of going directly to a four-team tournament, each of the four divisions first have a “Challenge Round” in which the second place team in each division would have an opportunity to catch the first place team in a series of head-to-head games. In effect, the regular season would be extended for up to another 6 games between the first and second place teams, until one or the other clinches the division. If they end up tied at the end of 6 games, they play a seventh game in the form of a one-game playoff. To provide a few examples of how this system would work, suppose divisions ended as they did in 2006. In a Challenge Round, Anaheim (second place, four games behind) would play Oakland needing six wins in seven games; Minnesota (first place) and Detroit (one game behind) would play, with the Tigers needing four wins in six games; and LA and San Diego (who tied for first) would play a full best of seven game Challenge Round series.

First and foremost, Regal failed to consider how he would realign his divisions. Using the final standings in the American League, Detroit, returned to the AL East would play New York in a challenge round. And Minnesota, playing again in the AL West would be challenged by Oakland. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that was exactly how the playoffs shaped up. It’s a simple oversight, and I think it is a minor one in assessing the proposal. In the NL, Philadelphia would need to rip off 12 straight wins to catch the Mets, 13 to get into the playoffs. And that’s where Regal’s system fails. First, St. Louis, who is in the NLCS would be at home watching the playoffs. Second, the idea of letting Philly challenge the Mets with such long odds is a little insulting.

A better solution, one that baseball purists and sabermetricians would probably sneer at, only a marketing wonk could love it (which is my day job, by the way). Baseball should retain the tri-division format. I am not fond of uneven divisions and imbalanced schedules. I get a little sick of playing the Yankees 19 times a year (especially when they take five games from us in August effectively ending our season). But this is what baseball has chosen, and going back to two large divisions is unlikely. So we work with what we have.

Instead of a challenge round, I suggest a pair of play in games. The division winners get the weekend off and two made for television games are played on a Saturday and Sunday night. The games would pit the teams with the fourth and fifth best records in each league in a winner take all format. But the best team might not win. So what?

Seriously, the NFL and College Basketball have compelling playoff formats built around the idea of a series of winner take all contests. And the NFL is proud to say that on any given Sunday, any given team can beat any other. Even though it would take a month of Sundays before the Raiders topped the Bears, folks assume that to be true. If that’s the case, shouldn’t football use a system that makes sure the best teams have a better shot of winning? Humbug. The NFL wisely recognizes the value of compelling drama. Baseball, Basketball and Hockey play longer series to get more gate revenues and to ensure that teams built for the long haul of their seasons have more odds of advancing. They sacrifice the compelling nature of playoff contests by making series. And I feel the LCS and World Series ought to be a contest of that sort. Even if there is only drama in a seventh game, which may or may not exist.

Here’s how it would work. The regular season would conclude on the last Wednesday or Thursday in September. That first weekend in October would be the Major League Baseball Play-In Challenge. The fourth best team in the AL would host the fifth best team in the AL on Saturday Night. The NL would follow suit on Sunday Night. The ALDS would begin on Monday with the best AL record team hosting the winner of the play in game. The other division winners would square off in the other Divisional series. The playoffs would continue as they currently are.

This year, that would mean Detroit would have to beat the White Sox to get to play the Yankees. And in the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers would host the Phillies for the right to play the Mets. That would create more playoff possibilities, and give weaker teams a chance at a postseason they would not ordinarily have, while placing a premium on winning your division. Further this year’s also rans like the White Sox, Angels, Toronto, Boston, Houston, Cincinnati, Atlanta and Florida would be in it longer. End of the season games would be more meaningful for a change.

The potential for greater interest in the game would also increase. College basketbal benefits from the creation of “Cinderella stories”. Imagine if a perennial also-ran like Tampa Bay or Kansas City were that fifth best team and they won the play in game. In addition to their fan base, the casual followers would have a rooting interest in cheering for an obvious underdog. Any improvement in ratings improves exposure of the game, enhancing revenues, enriching the teams, and making more competitive pennant races. What more could Major League Baseball want?

Baseball Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

This and next month, Outside the Beltway Sports will be taking a trip around the Major Leagues profiling the 30 major league teams. We begin today with the defending Champions.

St. Louis Cardinals

Last season: 83-78 First Place NL Central, Won World Series 4-1 over Detroit
Manager: Tony Larussa

Meet the new guys

RP Ryan Franklin, 2B Adam Kennedy, RP Russ Springer, SP Kip Wells, RF/1B Eli Marrero

Gone and hardly remembered

SP Jason Marquis (to Chicago Cubs), RP Jorge Sosa (to NY Mets), SP Jeff Suppan (to Milwaukee), SP Jeff Weaver (to Seattle), SS Jose Vizcaino (Free Agent), 2B Ronnie Belliard (Free Agent)

And now your starting lineup

1. SS David Eckstein
2. LF Chris Duncan
3. 1B Albert Pujols
4. 3B Scott Rolen
5. CF Jim Edmonds
6. RF Juan Encarnacion
7. 2B Adam Kennedy
8. C Yadier Molina
9. Pitcher

Bench

OF Preston Wilson
OF So Taguchi
1B/3B Scott Spiezio
IF Aaron Miles
C Gary Bennett

The lineup is pretty very good. Eckstein is a steady table setter. The modest power punch is gone, but he gets on base at an acceptable clip and does not hurt the team in the field. Duncan, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds can all thump the ball. Encarnacion’s on-base skills are lacking, but has enough pop in the bat to drive in some runs with the tablesetters in place. Adam Kennedy has a little more pop and a little less discipline than Eckstein and Yadier Molina is unacceptable any way you slice it.

Off the bench, So Taguchi is a good role player, but should not get the nearly 350 plate appearances he got last season. Scott Spiezio has nice pop off the bench and is a useful reserve. Preston Wilson redicovered his power stroke when he came to St. Louis, but struggled making contact and getting on base. At this point he is a useful spare part, most of the time and a hopelessly futile out the remainder of the time. Miles’ defense elevates him slightly above replacement level. Bennett defines replacement level.

Rotation

1. Cris Carpenter
2. Mark Mulder
3. Anthony Reyes
4. Kip Wells
5. Adam Wainwright
6. Ryan Franklin

Bullpen

Closer Jason Isringhausen
Randy Flores
Josh Hancock
Ricardo Rincon
Russ Springer
Braden Looper

The pitching staff does not have the same level of acceptable competence. Cris Carpenter is excellent. And Mark Mulder, if healthy can be quite effective. After that, the Cardinals are piecing together a rotation after the devastating defections of Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis. Anthony Reyes has carried the tag of can’t miss prospect for awhile. His K rates and walk rates were always good in the minor leagues. If his low walk rates can carry over to the bigs, which they haven’t yet, then he should be a solid middle of the rotation starter. Wells, Wainwright and Franklin are below average innings eaters. Those are okay on a team with a very good offense. The Cardinal offense is better than average, but not very good.

In the pen, it’s a little better, but not by much. If healthy, Isringhausen is effective closing down the game. Flores, Hancock, Rincon, Springer and Looper are okay at getting to Isringhausen, but are nothing like the more impressive bullpen in Queens or the one that the Braves are putting together in Atlanta. They will leak out a few games here and there. But they will steal a few here and there too.

Help is on the way…

Top prospect Colby Rasmus has been in the Cardinals system for two years. He’s a toolsy outfielder with nice speed, decent power and plenty of room to fill out his six-foot-one frame. Like most tools first players, he is very hit or miss. His Rookie ball and A ball results were solid hits. Advanced A though presented some problems. Fielding questions may push him to a corner, where he’d need a power surge to contribute as a regular. He’s still at least two or three years away. Repeating High A with a midseason promotion to Double A would be completely in order for him.

Other prospects who may be called on
None really. The rest of the Cardinals top prospects are also far away from the Majors. Cardinals GM Walt Jockety has typically used top prospects to acquire major league ready talent and the Cardinal development system is not inspiring. A number of last year’s Baseball America top ten prospects slipped out of the top ten, replaced by prospects who had not been previously noticed or ’06 draft picks. It is just as likely that St. Louis turns a prospect like Josh Kinney or Mark McCormick for a retread starter like Carl Pavano or Byung-Hyun Kim. Farm Director Jeff Lunhow has run the last two drafts and now controls the entire farm system. That may yield more talent.

Outlook

The success of the Cardinals last year was in overcoming adversity and getting hot in October. This team has too many holes to count on a post season appearance in 2007. But they cannot be counted out either. As improved as Chicago is, they are not run away division winners, either. The Astros and the Reds and the Brewers should all contend as well. How St. Louis does depends largely on Albert Pujols and his bat. The best hitter in baseball and one of America’s newest citizens carries the offense of his club. Albert can count on another good year, and if he stays healthy, that’s worth another couple of wins for the Cards. Besides Carpenter, who is capable of winning twenty games, the staff will be baling wire, bubble gum and duct tape for April and May. But once they get their legs underneath them, they should settle in. I do not expect a successful title defense, but they can make the playoffs, where it is anyone’s ballgame.

Predicted finish: 88-74 First place in a close NL Central race.

Marlins-Cabrera Showdown Getting Ugly

It’s chump change, really. Even to the tight-fisted Florida Marlins. The unbreachable chasm is a mere $700,000. But the stepping on dollars to pick up pennies is bound to haunt the fish down the road. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. Deatils

In front of hundreds of fans and season-ticket holders during the weekend, Marlins President David Samson and General Manager Larry Beinfest made a point to voice their disappointment that Cabrera blew off the team’s pre-season promotional events.

“(Owner) Jeffrey (Loria) and the rest of us are extremely disappointed that he’s not here with every one of his teammates. All the players are here except Miguel,” Samson said Saturday at FanFest at Dolphin Stadium.

Samson made similar remarks from the podium Friday night at a $200-a-plate awards dinner. Beinfest publicly noted Cabrera’s absence from the podium at a Town Hall meeting on Saturday.

Pitcher Reynel Pinto and infielder Alfredo Amezaga also didn’t attend, but they had excused absences because they were completing winter ball activities. Samson said members of the front office were told by Cabrera’s agents that “he was unable to make it for personal reasons.”

“We’re disappointed, that’s the bottom line. Our organization is disappointed that he wasn’t there with his teammates.

[...]

But a source who has spoken with the Cabrera camp said part of the reason he didn’t show up is that he is not happy that the team is taking him to arbitration on Friday over a $700,000 difference.

Cabrera, who made $472,000 last year, wants $7.4 million. The team has offered him $6.7 million.

“If he wins, he’ll be a very rich man and if he loses he’ll be a very rich man. And we’ll all fly back to start spring training,” Samson said.

Samson’s attitude typifies this dispute. To Cabrera, this is about the hassle of arbitration and the confirmation that this team, rather than locking him up with long term security is going to fight their biggest on-field asset over less than five percent of the club’s payroll last year. This kind of attitude leads to resentment, alienation and a departure as soon as is possible for both parties.

Last week, on his Internet radio show, David Pinto speculated that the Marlins and Cabrera were cruising for a showdown. Whether this is due to Cabrera fleeing for more welcoming pastures after the 2009 season, or the Marlins dealing him for young talent before then, the cracks in the foundation of the club’s relationship to their star player began now.

Another player who is wearing out his welcome, may find one of his suitors backing away. While the Astros have not echoed this fan’s sentiment, the potential is there for a club ready to move ahead.

Unfortunately, that arrogance has slithered closer to home. Yep, the new contender for the all-time narcissist crown: Roger Clemens. At least Bonds is somewhat open with his self-importance, but Clemens is more like an extortionist, making middle-of-the-night phone calls to his victim, then not saying anything. Just letting his quarry know that he’s there and in control.

Clemens will be welcome in the Houston clubhouse, but a few more offseasons like the last several will wear out that welcome in short order.