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Rick Gosselin notes that we throw around the phrase “future Hall of Famer” way too easily when talking about NFL greats.
 I’m hearing “first-ballot Hall of Famer” plenty these days with the retirements of Brett Favre, Jonathan Ogden, Michael Strahan and Warren Sapp. I’m hearing “future Hall of Famer” with the retirements of Steve McNair and Bryant Young. The Class of 2013 could be pumped up even further if Junior Seau decides he’s through.
The assumption is that the latest is always the greatest, so let’s rush all these guys into Canton.
 In Favre’s case, I’ll buy it. He retired as the game’s all-time leading passer with more completions, yards and touchdowns than any other quarterback in NFL history. Five years from now when he becomes eligible for Canton, Favre figures to still be atop all the passing lists.
Those are the true first-ballot guys: Favre, Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith – players who pushed the bar so high it would take years for anyone to catch them statistically.
All other “first-ballot” candidates are matters of opinion, which makes them all subject to debate.
Strahan retired after 15 seasons with 141½ sacks. First ballot? Ask Chris Doleman his definition of a first-ballot Hall of Fame pass rusher. His statistics are better than Strahan’s across the board, but he can’t even get into the room for discussion by the Hall of Fame selection committee. Here’s a comparison:
| Player |
Seasons |
Games |
Sacks |
FF |
FR |
Int |
| Doleman |
15 |
232 |
150½ |
43 |
23 |
8 |
| Strahan |
15 |
216 |
141½ |
23 |
14 |
4 |
| (FF-Forced fumbles; FR-Fumble recoveries, INT-Interceptions) |
The natural argument would be that Strahan played the strong side, where a player generally has to fight through more traffic to get to the quarterback than a weakside pass rusher like Doleman. But that argument hasn’t helped Kevin Greene. He finished his career with 160 sacks in 228 career games at his strongside linebacker spot and also can’t get into the room for discussion. Both Doleman and Greene enter their fifth year of eligibility in 2009. Both Doleman and Greene deserve discussion before Strahan. Derrick Thomas, Richard Dent and Charles Haley also belong in the queue ahead of Strahan.
Warren Sapp was an all-decade tackle for the 1990s. So was Bryant Young. But so was Cortez Kennedy. Young went to five Pro Bowls, Sapp eight and Kennedy eight. Sapp was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 1999. So was Kennedy in 1992. Yet Kennedy has never been a finalist in his four years of eligibility.
McNair took a team to the Super Bowl and was an NFL MVP. Ken Anderson also took a team to the Super Bowl and was an NFL MVP. Anderson went to twice as many Pro Bowls (four) than McNair (two). He also threw for more yards (32,838) and more touchdowns (197) than McNair (31,304 and 174). Anderson has been a finalist twice and been rejected twice.
Jonathan Ogden went to 11 Pro Bowls. So did guard Randall McDaniel, who was bounced in his first trip to the finals last February.
Junior Seau went to 12 Pro Bowls in his 18 NFL seasons. Les Richter played nine NFL seasons (1954-62) as a linebacker and went to eight Pro Bowls. He was once traded for 11 players. Yet he’s never been discussed by the Hall of Fame selection committee. Maxie Baughan went to nine Pro Bowls in the 1960s. He also has never been discussed.
The latest doesn’t always translate into the greatest. Labeling any player a “future Hall of Famer” or “first-ballot Hall of Famer” is a disservice to those who have already earned their way into Canton with those designations.
He’s right, of course. Some truly great players are not in the Hall and some of today’s perennial Pro Bowlers will surely fall short.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame is by far the most exclusive of those representing the major sports. There are some truly mediocre players in Cooperstown. Basketball’s hall is, frankly, a joke, seeking to include everyone regardless of what level of competition they played at, lumping NBA greats in with women’s hoopstars and international stars. Golf’s hall is simply matter of “qualifying” by winning the requisite number of tournaments and, again, it includes those who excel on the women’s tour.
Canton has gone, in my view, to the opposite extreme. A football team has 22 starters, not counting special teams, compared to nine in baseball and five in basketball. Yet, they let in a maximum of six modern era players each year. Baseball lets in anyone getting votes from 75 percent of the writers, allowing large classes if several greats retire in short order. Class sizes vary from year-to-year but typically three make it and as many as seven have in a single year. Again, in a sport with far fewer players.
The gang at ESPN has ranked all 32 NFL teams. Here’s the top 10 (final 2007 rankings in parenthesis):
1 (1) Patriots 16-0-0 A healthy Tom Brady and a happy Randy Moss make the Patriots championship contenders this season and for years to come. (MS)
2 (2) Colts 13-3-0 They haven’t had a lot of offseason turnover and they already were very good. Continuity means a lot. (PY)
3 (6) Chargers 11-5-0 If the Chargers can get over their injury issues, they could be in the Super Bowl mix all the way to Tampa. (BW)
4 (3) Cowboys 13-3-0 Felix Jones should help the running game immediately. But who will emerge as the No. 2 receiver? Patrick Crayton wasn’t up to the task in late ‘07. (MM)
5 (4) Jaguars 11-5-0 They sometimes get overshadowed by division rival Indianapolis, but the Jaguars have an elite roster and an elite coach in Jack Del Rio. (PY)
6 (9) Giants 10-6-0 Teams other than the Patriots aren’t supposed to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Will Michael Strahan retire? Can they compensate for free-agent losses at LB? (MM)
7 (8) Steelers 10-6-0 A very strong draft catapults the Steelers into Super Bowl contenders. RBs Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall should be one of the best 1-2 punches. (JW)
8 (7) Seahawks 10-6-0 New O-line coach Mike Solari stands out as the Seahawks’ top offseason acquisition, perhaps allowing them to keep their edge in the NFC West. (MS)
9 (13) Browns 10-6-0 The 2007 darlings face high expectations. The offense will score. Can the D, anchored by additions Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams, hold up its end? (JW)
10 (5) Packers 13-3-0 This is an unpredictable team in the wake of the retirement of Brett Favre. Who will step up and make the big plays this year? (JW)
Click here for 11-32.
Dropping the Packers, were 13-3 and lost in the NFC Championship game to #10 seems about right. After all, they lost one of the best quarterbacks in League history to retirement. But how do you justify dropping the team that beat them, along with the #4 ranked Cowboys and the #1 ranked Patriots on their way to winning the Super Bowl down to 6th place? Even if Strahan retires, they still have the most dominant defensive front in the League and Eli Manning should only get better.
I like the Cowboys’ chances at #4, though, especially since that puts them as the favorite team to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They’re a deeper team than the Giants, I think, and have really shored up their defensive backfield with the Pacman Jones trade and the drafting of Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick. But the Giants deserve to be considered the team to beat.
2006 Recap
The 2006 season ended in disappointment as the G-Men lost in the wildcard round (to Philadelphia) on a last second field goal. Tiki Barber had a great game that night (28 touches, 152 total yds), but the Giants D couldn’t stop the Eagles rushing attack, especially on the last drive when they marched down the field to make an easy field goal.
Tiki retired after the season to pursue a television career (which is making headlines of its own).
The Giants had a fairly uneventful offseason. No major splashes in the free agent market or in the draft. Steve Spagnuolo was promoted from Eagles linebacker coach to Giants defensive coordinator. Michael Strahan threatened to retire, but then showed up Monday (possibly in a bid to simply skip training camp). Will Demps is out for the year with an elbow injury, and Mathias Kiwanuka was moved from defensive end to outside linebacker.
Key losses
RB Tiki Barber
K Jay Feely
S Will Demps
LT Luke Petitgout
Tiki will be missed the most of these four players. He carried the Giant offense at times last year, and accounted for over 40 % of their offense the last three years. Brandon Jacobs has been an excellent backup, but now he’s the star - will he be able to carry the ball 20+ times a game when he’s never carried it more than 11 in a single game yet? I think the answer is yes. He’s a big, strong guy (6′4″, 265 lbs., which is as big as some defensive ends and bigger than most linebackers), and with the depth the Giants have at RB (Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, Reuben Droughns), he won’t have to carry as much of the load as was initially feared after Tiki’s retirement.
I won’t cry over losing Jay Feely. He was a good but not great kicker that often missed in important, close games. Lawrence Tynes won the kicking job - he has made 78.2 % of field goals in his career, a decent percentage (and just a hair under Feely’s career of 79.6 %).
Will Demps was one of the big free agent acquisitions heading into last year, but had a disappointing first year with the Jints after coming over from Baltimore. James Butler, however, played very well in limited time so I don’t mind him becoming the starting free safety in 2007.
Losing Luke Petitgout might have a bigger impact any other loss, even Tiki. When he was healthy, he was a very solid left tackle (a premium position in the NFL), and his injury in the Chicago game last year was essentially the turning point of the whole season - they were winning that game and could’ve gone 7-2, but with Luke out Eli was mauled the rest of the game; the Jints lost and they finished the season going just 2-6.
Key additions
CB Aaron Ross
WR Steve Smith
LB Kawika Mitchell
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Aaron Ross was selected with the 20th overall pick in the April draft. He was a top CB out of U-Texas and secondary help is what the Giants needed (and still need) desperately. I like what I’ve seen from him in the preseason despite getting picked on - he’s made some nice tackles, has shown good speed and change-of-direction ability, and despite allowing some long catches has been in good position (but the throws were perfect). He should be the starting nickelback, and could take over starting by mid-season (he also returns punts). The only downside is that he’ll turn 25 this month, quite old for a rookie CB.
Steve Smith (out of USC) was selected in the 2nd round and has excelled in camp and in the preseason (8 catches, 78 yds, 1 TD). He has probably taken the #3 WR spot over Sinorice Moss. Along with Shockey, Plax, Toomer, Moss and Mix, the Giants (could) have a one of the best passing attacks in football (a lot of which still rests on Eli).
LB Kawika Mitchell was the only impact free agent that rookie GM Jerry Reese signed. He’s 27 and to this point played his entire career with the Chiefs where he amassed 302 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 13 pass deflections and 3 picks. Reese signed him to a nice, low risk contract (one year, $1 million). He’ll be the starting weak side linebacker.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw could turn into the steal of the 2007 draft. He was taken in the 7th round out of Marshall and has excelled in the preseason - 26 carries for 177 yards (6.8 per carry), 4 catches for 31 yards. He looks like a bigger version of Tiki: quick, agile, a little small - and he’s the starting kick returner. The offense for the 2007 Giants should be very strong, which brings me to…
Keys to the season
Eli’s progression
This will be Eli’s 4th season in the league, and if the team is going anywhere he needs to step up from his previous three. If the preseason is any indication (69% completion rate, 3 TD, 0 INT, 107 rating), he’s going to have a breakout year. QB coach Chris Palmer came over from Dallas where he finished molding Tony Romo into (seemingly) a very solid QB.
Steve Spagnuolo’s new D
The new defensive coordinator that came over from Philly has brought a blitzing, attacking defense that is part of the reason Mathias Kiwanuka moved from DE to OLB. His kind of style is high-risk/high-reward. It will be susceptible to screen passes, draws and hot routes, and if the blitzers do not get to the QB, it will leave the weak secondary very exposed. If they can get to the passer, it will hide a lot of problems with the DBs. If nothing else, it will be exciting to watch.
Predictions
Because of the weak NFC East, the Giants actually have a decent shot at the division title. They’ll win anywhere from six to nine games. This may sound horrible, but I would rather have the team suck badly than be simply mediocre (which is probably what will happen) - I’d rather draft Darren McFadden (or another top player) and get a new head coach in here than continue plugging along as just another mediocre NFL team. Final prediction: 8-8 (wildcard team), Eli has a very good year (QB rating over 90), but the secondary kills them too often to win consistently.
sources: NFL.com, Wikipedia, ESPN
by Football Outsiders -
Head coach Tom Coughlin signed a shiny new one-year deal earlier this off-season — which doesn’t say much for his long-term job security — but he will have two new coordinators for 2008. Kevin Gilbride, who replaced offensive coordinator John Hufnagel in Week 16 last season, will keep the job; Eagles linebackers coach Steve Spagnuolo will replace Tim Lewis, now the Panthers secondary coach.
Under Lewis, the Giants finished 21st, 11th, and 13th in defensive DVOA the last three seasons, often with injuries at key positions. In 2006, linebacker LaVar Arrington was lost for the year with an Achilles’ tendon injury, and defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora missed time with various ailments. Still, the improvement from bottom third to middle of the pack wasn’t enough for Lewis to keep his job. Coughlin hired Spagnuolo without conducting an in-person interview with other candidates. Part of the appeal had to be Spagnuolo’s association with Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. Philadelphia features an aggressive, blitzing scheme, something Lewis didn’t emphasize in New York or in a previous stint as Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator…
Continued here.
The Giants’ injury problems continue:
Seven-time Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan will miss the rest of the season for the New York Giants after aggravating a sprained right foot last weekend against the New Orleans Saints. He was placed on injured reserve Tuesday and could need surgery, the team said.
The Giants (7-8) can almost surely clinch a playoff berth by beating the Redskins (5-10) in the regular-season finale at Washington on Saturday.
New York also placed offensive tackle Luke Petitgout and returner Chad Morton on injured reserve. Morton injured his knee Sunday; Petitgout broke a leg against Chicago on Nov. 12.
Just what the Giants need - more injuries. Even if they do miraculously win at Washington on Saturday, they won’t go far in the playoffs without Strahan and Petitgout. Strahan’s replacement is not much of a downgrade, 1st rd. pick Mathias Kiwanuka; but Petitgout’s replacement is awful, 15-year veteran Bob Whitfield.
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