- Mo Rivera is expected to sign the Yankees three-year, $45 million record offer early this week. He was the most important free agent to re-sign because without him, who would be the closer? Cordero, who had a decent year (in the NL Central)? Joba Chamberlain, whose progress would be stunted by a full year as a reliever? Rivera was clearly the best option out there, but unfortunately, extremely expensive. At least the Yanks aren’t giving him a fourth year.
- The reported four-year, $60 million offer to Mike Lowell to play first was debunked. Thank goodness. I was starting to doubt Brian Cashman’s sanity.
- USA! USA! USA!
People were saying that after Arod’s deal in 2001 that $25 million a year wouldn’t look as bad in a few years (with inflation and the increasing free agent financial market). It still does. Some thought that other top players would be compensated similarly. It never happened nearly to the extent some thought it would. Even Manny’s crazy contract ($160 million for 8 years) has him making $8 mil (per year) less than Arod. Is Arod worth $8 mil more than Manny? Nope. Look at the stats – Arod’s the better defender and base-runner, but Manny’s the better hitter.
Sure Arod will (probably) be good for .295/.380/.570 for the next few years. But what happens when he starts declining, which could happen as soon as next year? Everyone has to realize Arod had a career year in ’07. He’s highly unlikely to repeat it. Historically speaking, he’ll only get worse from here on out. That Bonds played great well into his late 30s and early 40s is only a testament to the power of steroids. As in my previous post, I don’t believe Arod juices so the same benefits of longevity won’t apply to Alex. Never mind the decline in defense he’ll suffer.
Another reason not to sign Arod to the supposed mega-deal is the draft picks. If he signs elsewhere, the Yanks get two top picks in the 2008 draft. They probably wouldn’t be better than Arod, but together they might be. Who will have more value over the next 5-10 years, Arod or Joba and Kennedy (the top two picks of 2006)? Probably the pitchers, especially counting for value (effectiveness per dollar). Now not every draft is that good, but we know now that it can be. Phil Hughes was a first round pick. So was C.J. Henry who helped us acquire Abreu. There are definitely busts out there, but the pros outweigh the cons (in my opinion, as always).
And it ain’t just the amount of money ($275 million+, which is insane), but it puts the Yanks even higher above the luxury tax. That money goes to other teams. I’m sick of handing out money to make other teams better. If the Yanks were run more efficiently (Lowell for 4 years, $60 million?!), they would have a top team without helping out our competitors.
The next decade (still hard to believe the length) is going to be a(nother) damn circus. It’s enough. Let another team get the albatross, we get the draft picks and can finally move on. Contrary to popular belief, Arod is not a prerequisite to winning. Arod has two MVPs in the last three years, yet zero titles (or even World Series appearances). ’96-’03, six Series appearances, four titles. Obviously a lot of that was due to pitching, but that’s the point: we did it without an MVP and first-ballot Hall of Fame hitter – we didn’t need one. Now, I do think the team will be better for the next few years with Arod, but again, he’s not a prerequisite to winning. For the long term I believe it’s a detriment.
What’ll happen when he has an off year (or off month) and the boos return? It’s tough for Arod, tough for his teammates, tough for the managers, tough for the front office, tough for the fans that don’t boo him – just a bad situation. I really think its better for everyone to just split.
And the home run record incentive is stupid too. What’s to stop him from solely trying for HRs from here on out? Pride you might say? The same pride that made him opt-out during the World Series? Anyway, that seemed to be his biggest problem in ’06 – always trying to hit the long ball. Now that he has a (huge) monetary incentive just to hit HRs, why would he try to get that runner in from 2nd with a single rather than swinging for the fences?
In closing, I’m sure I’ve overlooked some things but I tried to get all my thoughts out at once. They just came flowing and I apologize in advance for any mistakes.
- And look whose come crawling back, clinging to the last shreds of good will he has in New York. Supposedly, for the Yanks to take him back, he would have to ‘reimburse’ them for losing the Texas money (about $21 million) AND exclude Scott Boras from the negotiations. Rumors exist of a 10-year, $275 million deal in the works. God no. Too much per year and too many years – $27.5 mil for a 42-year-old 1b/DH?! $175 million for seven is more like it. Offer that to Arod, if he doesn’t take it, let him get a better deal elsewhere. We’re a better team with him but we have won without him.
- Mo wants $50 million… No way in hell should he get that. $45 million for three years is more than enough for a 38-year-old closer. No one is going to match his demand (or even the Yanks offer).
The Yanks caved and gave him that fourth year he really wanted. His career line of .277/.381/.479 is excellent for a catcher, and his #1 comparison at catcher is Carlton Fisk. He’ll be 39 at the end of the contract and will likely be the 1B/DH in 2011. Hopefully Jesus Montero or Austin Romine (or someone else) will be ready to take over by then.
RAB’s where I saw it first.
- 2007 Yankee Minor League’s Season Review
- The Yanks are unlikely to trade any of the Troika – good for Cash. The more I think about it, the more I dislike the idea of trading away any of Hughes, Joba or Kennedy. Position players are great, but it’s equally if not more important to know that every single game your starting pitcher’s going to give you a good chance to win. Kennedy for Miggy I’d do in a heartbeat (but Florida never would). The Marlins would probably want Melky and another good prospect in the deal. Every scenario just brings more complications to the future.
If Melky’s traded, who plays center? Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter? No thanks. Both are on the wrong side of 30, have declined on defense, and would probably require multi-year deals. Damon is the only current option. His D declined considerably and he battled injuries all year. His weak arm is better hidden in left than center. What happens when he needs a day off or gets hurt? Sure, Gardner could fill in for an injury, but not a day off. He needs to get consistent playing time and would be wasted riding the bench.
If Kennedy’s traded, Moose would become the fifth starter. Not a good option. A 5.15 era this year, and with Hughes and Joba set to top out at about 140 innings each, Moose would get a lot more innings than the Yanks want. Those innings would be much better handled by the 23-year-old Kennedy with Moose getting spot starts and long relief appearances. I haven’t even mentioned Pettitte. If he does retire, there’s no way Kennedy gets traded (unless it’s for another starter). Assuming 950 ip from the starters (921 in 2007) – subtracting 400 for Wang and Pettitte leaves us with 550. Minus 280 for Joba and Hughes still leaves 270. That amount requires at least two more starters, perfect for Kennedy and Mussina. A duo that is far better than any other combo they could muster, e.g. Igawa, Clippard, White, DeSalvo, etc. And all these calculations don’t even take into account for major injuries.
Now you say Miggy can be had for Kennedy straight up, of course I do it (and worry about the pitching later), but much more than that is asking for trouble down the road. The Yanks counteroffer was Tabata, Sanchez, Horne and Ohlendorf. Tough call but I guess I’d do it: Jtab is a great pure hitter at just 19 (and might actually get some power now that his hand problems are seemingly behind him), Sanchez could be a lesser version of Joba and potential closer within the next two years (although coming back from Tommy John surgery), while Horne and Ohlendorf have great stuff but aren’t too young (both over 24). I would hate losing Sanchez and Jtab but to get a Hall of Fame hitter (turning just 25 in April), you have to do it.
- Cash will offer arbitration to Arod. A win-win for the Yanks. He declines and they get two high draft picks; he accepts and returns to the Bronx on a one-year deal (without a no-trade clause to boot). If for some crazy reason he did accept, Cash would be smart to trade him. Imagine the possible returns…
- As we all could tell from his YES broadcasts, Joe G is a very, very smart guy.
- Read reports on other blogs that the Yanks discussed a Hughes plus Melky for Peavy trade with San Diego. Checking out Peavy’s stats at BRef and BPro, I expected to find a dominant pitcher but merely found a very good one. I just wasn’t blown away by him as much of the media trumps him up as one of the best in MLB. Don’t get me wrong, he was phenomenal this year, but his career has been a combo of a few great and a few average years.
- In the good news category, GMs voted in favor of instant replay (25-5) to help umpires decide fair/foul calls. This is great news, and although limited, is a step in the right direction. Hopefully next year balls/strikes, out/safe, catches/traps, and other such calls will be eligible for video review. And going by ESPN’s poll, fans overwhelmingly favor IR. Not all bad news these days.
- Andy Pettitte declined his 2008 option, but has left the door open to return. He wants more time to mull it over. I think he’ll return.
- New nickname alert: J-Tab.
- Miguel Cabrera is available for trade. I dream of getting him without giving up a top prospect, e.g. Cano, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Wang, Melky, Jtab, Ajax, Betances, Montero, McAllister, Heredia, Gardner, Melancon, Sanchez. Would some combination of Ohlendorf, Horne, Marquez, Whelan, Nacci, Miranda, Kontos, Dunn, McCutchen, Corona and Cervelli be enough? Doubtful. There’s not a single can’t miss in that group. Look at the haul they got for Beckett and Lowell. It would probably take something like that.
- Sources close to Arod say Boston is #1 on his list of teams. Don’t worry. It’s all a facade by Scottie Boras. First, why would the Sawx want Arod when they have the World Series MVP on their team at the same position who would cost a helluva lot less? Second, he’s the most hated athlete in Boston (yes, even more than Jeter). Third, if Arod thinks New York fans are fickle, wait till he plays a month in Fenway. Fourth, I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘source’ is in fact Boras trying to scare the Yankees into bidding on Arod when they said they wouldn’t. Without the richest team in baseball bidding for his client, he won’t receive as much as he hopes. Fifth, if he does think the Yanks are truly out of it, then having the second richest team (supposedly) bidding also serves this purpose.
- Tim Lincecum is available for a ‘good bat’ according to FOX Sports. How about J-Tab and A-Jax for Lincecum? Yeah, not enough in my opinion, but you never know with crazy Brian Sabean.
- Johnny Damon for Joe Crede? No thanks. Crede has a career OBP of .305. Ugh. He’s great on defense, but not not enough to make up for that putrid OBP. He’s marginally better against LHP but when accounting for Damon’s speed (which Crede is completely devoid of), you can’t make that trade. Now if Cash thinks Gardner, A-Jax or J-Tab aren’t far off (they’ll start 2008 in AAA and AA respectively), and considering Crede is four years younger, maybe it does make sense. We have a glut of OFers and a need for a righty third-baseman.
- 2008 Yankee projections
Shelley (!) is projected to lead the team in HR with 24. The hitting projections seem about right to me but I have some disagreements with the pitching. For example, Joba is projected to have a higher ERA (4.43) than Ian Kennedy, Chris Britton, Kyle Farnsworth and Ron Villone. Highly doubtful.
Great that they’re keeping Kevin Long and Tony Pena, and promoting Dave Eiland to pitching coach. Cashman is doing well. I don’t know that much about the coaching of the other fellers – just that Bobby Meachem (the 3b coach) and Rob Thomson (bench coach) have been in baseball for almost 40 years combined. The new bullpen coach, Mike Harkey, I’d never even heard of before tonight. It sucks losing Larry Bowa, but if Girardi likes Harkey (his bullpen coach in Florida), then I trust him.
Eiland was Triple-A Scranton’s pitching coach this year (and worked with the Trio: Hughes, Joba and Kennedy), and was with Double-A Trenton in 2006 (during Hughes’ monster season).
I wonder if a study can’t be conducted that shows the effect of a good vs. a bad 3b coach…
- A good choice, if I may say so. Unfortunately, Don Mattingly was offended and won’t return to the Yanks in any capacity next year. I wish he would stay on as bench coach, but I understand not being comfortable sitting next to the guy he lost out to on a daily basis.
- MLB criticized the timing of Boras’ announcement to void the remainder of Arod’s contract. Boras then apologized. What a liar. He knew what he was doing.
The analysis of Joe Girardi’s treatment of pitchers in his one managerial campaign with the 2006 Marlins. While we wait to find out who it will be, perhaps this will help.
Part 1
Pitcher Abuse Points -
Since I’m not a member of BPro, I can’t access their custom stat reports (which would have made this study much easier), so I did the best I could. Looking at Girardi’s treatment of starters vs. Torre’s treatment, we can see a few things. I looked at Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) in 2006 (for starters over 100 ip) – Florida’s starters accumulated a total of over 147,000 abuse points, whereas Yankee starters reached just under 48,000. This appears to be a huge difference until you realize Florida had six pitchers qualify while the Yanks had just four. A better way to equalize the measuring stick is to take the average PAP per pitcher: for Florida it was about 25,000 while the Yanks had about 12,000. So the gap isn’t quite as big as it seemed but there’s still a gap.
Outside of Total PAP, there’s also Max PAP, which is the maximum for a single game by that pitcher. Randy Johnson (I’m so glad I don’t have to type that name much anymore) had the highest single game PAP among the two teams: over 24,000! Then taking the average Max PAP of the teams puts the Yanks ahead – 7000 vs. 5000. So it seems Girardi pushed harder consistently but when Torre did push, it was very hard.
Then there’s Avg PAP which is (as you guessed) average PAP per start. Florida’s was higher: 800 PAP per start (not weighted toward number of starts), while the Yanks’ average Avg PAP was just 360.
The problem with PAP is that pitchers who suck will never get abused (e.g. go beyond 100 pitches), so a manager with a great rotation will look like a task-master when simply looking at PAP. This is part of the reason for the disparity – the Yanks 4th starter was Jaret Wright, who pitched more than six innings just twice in 2006 (he basically sucked – should Torre get credit for not using him a lot? I don’t think so). On the other side is Dontrelle Willis, a workhorse who pitched 223 innings in 2006 with a 3.87 era – should Girardi get penalized for counting on a great pitcher?
Conclusion: Torre has a slight edge here.
Part 2
Reliever Usage -
Using BRef’s Play Index, I looked at the raw data for how Girardi and Torre used relievers in 2006. Three ways of using relievers would worry me, so I searched for them – 1. relievers brought in on less than 3 days of rest to throw at least 40 pitches, 2. good relievers brought in to blowouts, and 3. the same reliever brought in on consecutive days.
The first search produced 16 hits for the 2006 Marlins vs. 14 for the Yankees. That’s a strike against Girardi. However, when you think about long relief, Girardi doesn’t look as bad. He had to call on relievers in the first three innings seven of those times whereas Torre had the excuse of using a long reliever just thrice. Accounting for those, Torre takes the lead with 11 vs. 9 for Girardi.
The second search was tougher because how does one identify a ‘good’ reliever and a ‘blowout’? I decided to go with relievers who had ERAs better than their team’s ERA (and pitched over 20 ip). And a ‘blowout’ being a game in the 7th inning or later with a five run difference. For the Marlins it was: Borowski, Tankersley, Herges, Kensing, Pinto, Resop and Nolasco.
Borowski was used in 10 blowouts! (and pitched in 72 games)
Tankersley 3. (49 gms)
Herges 14! (66 gms)
Kensing 6. (37 gms)
Pinto 6. (27 gms)
Resop 9! (22 gms)
Nolasco 0. (35 gms)
So blowout games (48) divided by total games (308) = 16 %
For the Yanks:
Proctor, Rivera, Myers, Bruney.
Proctor 16! (83 gms)
Rivera 9. (63 gms)
Myers 9. (62 gms)
Bruney 4. (19 gms)
38/227 = 16.7 %
So they’re pretty damn close with Torre using his good relievers a bit more often in blowouts. A strike against him.
The third search looked at how often Girardi used relievers (who pitched in at least 20 games) on consecutive days.
Borowski – 19 times
Herges – 11
Messenger – 9
Tankersley – 10
Kensing – 6
Pinto – 6
Resop – 3
So out of 436 relief appearances in 2006, 15 % (64) were made by pitchers on consecutive days. To have something for comparison, let’s also look at Torre in ’06. 487 total relief appearances by the 2006 Yankees:
Proctor – 20 times!
Farnsy – 14
Villone – 18
Rivera – 16
Myers – 20
Beam – 2
Torre used relievers on consecutive days 18.5 % (90 times). Another strike against Torre for bullpen usage. 3.5 % ain’t that big a difference, but realize Girardi used just one of his relievers on consecutive days more than 13 times (Borowski at 19), while Torre did it with five different guys.
Conclusion: Girardi manages a better bullpen.
Part 3
Injury histories -
This part is all about Florida’s starters, several of whom, after reaching career highs in innings in 2006 had either serious injuries or serious declines in 2007. Did Girardi’s managing cause either? First off, who were the affected pitchers?
DTrain:
2006 – 223 ip, 3.87 era
2007 – 205 ip, 5.17 era
Scott Olsen:
’06 – 180 ip, 4.04 era
’07 – 177 ip, 5.81 era
Josh Johnson:
’06 – 157 ip, 3.10 era
’07 – 15.2 ip, 7.47 era (injury shortened)
Ricky Nolasco:
’06 – 140 ip, 4.82 era
’07 – 21 ip, 5.48 era (injury shortened)
Anibal Sanchez:
’06 – 114 ip, 2.83 era
’07 – 30 ip, 4.80 era (injury shortened)
This piece of evidence is the most damning of Girardi’s managerial skills. All of these pitchers were under 25 in 2006, and with the Trio (Phil, Joba, Kennedy) set to be in the Yanks 2008 rotation, a manager who kills young’ins would be awful. Let’s take it pitcher by pitcher.
1. DTrain’s era went up nearly 1.5 runs, but I personally wouldn’t blame Girardi – Willis’ career high in innings was actually reached in 2005 (before Girardi), where he had a phenomenal era of 2.83. His innings went down in 2006, but his era went up a full run. If Girardi takes blame for his 2007 (5.17 era), then the 2005 manager (Jack McKeon) should take blame for Willis’ 2006 season that saw his era go up a full run.
2. Scott Olsen showed the largest non-injury related decrease. His era went up almost two runs (!) in nearly the same number of innings. He was arrested in July, so perhaps there were off-the-field problems. He also suffered an elbow injury in 2005 after pitching 100 innings between the majors and minors. The fact that Girardi had him pitch 180 innings the next year (after an arm injury) is a strike against him (although perhaps not entirely the reason, e.g. the arrest).
3. Josh Johnson pitched 152 innings in 2005 (the year before Girardi). Joe G pitched him 157 in 2006. Nothing to really fault Girardi about there. He suffered a non-workload related injury (Tommy John in fact) in August of this year after pitching 37 innings between the majors and minors.
4. Ricky Nolasco is another case like Johnson’s. He threw 162 innings in the minors in 2005, then 140 with Girardi’s Marlins. He suffered ‘elbow inflammation’ this year, but again, a non-workload related injury.
5. Anibal Sanchez threw 136 total (minor league) innings in 2005, then 200 (between the majors and minors) in 2006. This 64 inning increase is a lot (a 30 ip a year increase is considered ideal). Here’s the catch: Sanchez had Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2003. Is his arm the reason he missed most of 2007 (just 30 minor league ip), or if not, shouldn’t Girardi have been more careful with a 22-year-old former TJ patient? Yes, probably.
Conclusion:
Looking at the big picture, I do not think Joe Girardi was responsible for what happened to Florida’s pitchers this year. All the cases outside of Sanchez and maybe Olsen are clearly not his fault but Girardi’s taken a lot of unfair blame. And what about the GM? Shouldn’t he shoulder some of the blame too? Brian Cashman and Nardi Contreras protected Joba this year – why didn’t Florida’s front office take similar action to protect Sanchez and Olsen? And that was with a rookie manager, not a 12-year, four-titled, future Hall of Famer.
Part 4
Some things to remember:
- the fact that Girardi has just one year to analyze (small sample size)
- I didn’t address the belief that Torre has killed the careers of several relievers
- the D-Train effect, which radically skews the Marlins PAP numbers higher
- the Jaret Wright effect, which radically skews the Yanks PAP numbers lower
- I didn’t look at Torre’s pen usage outside of 2006
- Relating Girardi to Torre instead of the average ML manager (which would be way too time consuming)
Conclusion:
This has only compared Joe Girardi’s one year of managing to one year of Joe Torre’s 27-year managing career. Both sample sizes are a bit small to draw any definitive verdict, but (in the case of Girardi) it’s the only sample of his managing we have. Despite the sample sizes being statistically small, the conclusions do seem to jive with my own observations. I also haven’t compared Girardi to Don Mattingly, the other front runner for the job. He has no managing experience outside of being hitting coach and then bench coach under Torre for the past four years.
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