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Girardi is in as the new skipper of the Yankees. He has a reputation of putting winning ahead of organizational aims. The mediots who chortle and say that won’t be a problem in New York misunderestimate the effort Brian Cashman has made to develop the pinstriped pitching troika of Philip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.
One of my esteemed co-bloggers posted an interesting study of Girardi’s one year of managerial experience, in particular the way he handled the young Marlin pitchers.
I disagree a little with Travis’, but you can judge for yourself, down below or by clicking here. I come down on the side of the argument that any overuse of a young pitcher puts him a a disproportionately greater risk of developing serious arm trouble than similar abuse of a pitcher between 26 and 34 years old.
Here’s a highlight of Travis analysis:
I looked at Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) in 2006 (for starters over 100 ip) – Florida’s starters accumulated a total of over 147,000 abuse points, whereas Yankee starters reached just under 48,000. This appears to be a huge difference until you realize Florida had six pitchers qualify while the Yanks had just four. A better way to equalize the measuring stick is to take the average PAP per pitcher: for Florida it was about 25,000 while the Yanks had about 12,000. So the gap isn’t quite as big as it seemed but there’s still a gap.
PAP per pitcher is not an especially good way to look at individual abuse. To get a good gauge of how a manager uses his staff overall it works just fine, but individual pitchers, and in particular younger or older pitchers, deserve individual scrutiny.
By looking at individual efforts, things come more into focus.
Sanchez 2006 PAP^3 4,651
Nolasco 2006 PAP^3 4,300
Johnson 2006 PAP^3 13,211
Olsen 2006 PAP^3 13,256
Willis 2006 PAP^3 108,656
I omitted Brian Moehler – the sixth pitcher Travis references – from my tabulations, as he was the only starter over 25 in the 2006 Marlins rotation. This alone shows the tendency to send young arms well past 100 pitches far too frequently. But it is not the only way that these pitchers were mismanaged by Girardi in his effort to win now.
Bringing young arms along following the so-called “Rule of 30″ is a prudent strategy. Expecting a young pitcher to jump from 120 college innings pitched to 180 innings pitched without suffering fatigue or injury is foolhardy. So is expecting a pitcher to jump from 140 minor league IP to 200 major league IP, without consequence. The “Rule of 30″ offers a conservative strategy of ramping up a young pitcher’s inning tally by 30 inning increments from year to year. Let’s compare inning totals for those five Marlin starters both at the major and minor league level for 2005-2007. The middle column is when Girardi was manager and these totals include both major and minor league innings for all three years.
Sanchez 136, 200.3, 30
Nolasco 161.7, 140, 55
Johnson 152, 169.3, 36.3
Olsen 100.7, 186.7, 176.7
Willis 236.3, 223.3, 205.3
Sanchez was definitely over extended in 2006, and with the concerns about injury with his arm to begin with, that abuse may be the difference between him being a valuable pitcher for the next ten years and him being a flame out. You hope that is not the case.
Nolasco’s overuse was not from the Marlins, at least not in 2006, but more likely from the Cubs, whose track record of developing young arms is spotty at best (negligent at worst). His injury last year is more than likely the result of consistent overuse, rather than a burst of abuse.
Johnson’s injury this past season may not be the result of the number of PAP^3 he took in 2006 as a 22 year old. But it is hard to argue with a young arm breaking down after having stretches like this one in 06: 101, 109, 105, 94, 110, 103, 116, 109, 112, 105 over ten starts. Interestingly, he had an average of 5 days of rest between those starts. So even though he was effectively getting extra rest, that did not mitigate the strain of 100+ pitch outings. He gave up 14 earned runs (20 runs overall) in that ten game stretch, but his last 12 starts allowed 33 earned runs and 34 overall runs. His ERA climbed from 2.21 to 3.10. Got tired? Yep. And when a young arm is tired, that’s when it is most likely to strain or tear from overuse.
Those 108,656 PAP^3 for Willis, combined with his participation in the World Baseball Classic, go a long way to explaining the Willis’ decline of the last two seasons. Girardi leaned on Willis, because as the lone survivor of the purge, he was the de facto ace. A caveat, McKeon had abused Willis the previous year as well, so Girardi was following team precedent. Regardless, Dontrelle was still a young pitcher whose arm was nearing critical usage at a young age. How much he comes back is anyone’s guess. An statistically minded observer of baseball suggested Livan Hernandez when I posed the question to him.
Olsen’s 2007 inconsistency seems likely the result of injury due to double abuse, exceeding the normal rule of thirty increase of innings, and the second most PAP^3 among the 25 and under crowd. It seems unlikely to me that he does not make it through the 2008 season without a serious breakdown.
Five young pitchers, each showing marked decline or serious injury after Girardi’s tenure at the helm. For the sake of the franchise, Brian Cashman, needs to ensure that Girardi manages the young arms of Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy better than he did the young arms of the Marlins. I think he will. Girardi knew he was a sacrificial lamb in Florida. And so the only way to salvage his reputation as a budding managerial star was to win at all costs in his lone season in Miami. Now with a three year deal, from New York, it seems to me, he will play the good organizational soldier and follow the orders from on high about not wearing out the long term investments.
Still, the results of his last managerial job should strike fear into the hearts of Yankee fans.
For more information on PAP^3, click here.
The Israeli Baseball league’s first season is underway, and a few bloggers have posted their impressions.
A mother in Israel Took her family out to the ballgame. She doesn’t say much about the game but meets some players watching in the stands – he quit his job as an investment banker to play ball in Israel! For those interested 25 Shekel is roughly $6 right now, so the cost of a game is about that of a minor league game. (Actually I believe the price for a Baysox ticket now is $9 and $6 for children.) The cost of the baseball hat is as expensive as a major league hat. I’d guess they’re being priced for collectors.
Guest Blogger at SerAndEz, Eliezer StrongBad writes comprehensively about the Boychiks of Summer. The game experience left something to be desired. He notes that the players range in age from 17 – 51, so I suppose there’s still time for me to retire early and become a professional ballplayer. He did like the radio broadcast.
Life in Israel brings news updates from the league including the first no-hitter and the first game played under protest. I wonder how many lawyers are in the league.
(h/t Life in Israel)
And who knew, the inaugural game was broadcast on WNET!
For full information about the league, check out its website.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
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Soccer Dad linked with Play ball (in Israel)...
I suppose that for the rest of Sam Perlozzo’s tenure as the manager of the Baltimore Orioles the adjective “embattled” will regularly be attached to his name. I’m not sure that it’s fair. Certainly when Perlozzo took over, nearly two years ago, there was a feeling that his time had come. At the time, Thomas Boswell wrote
In a sense, Perlozzo has stood in uniform, face pressed to the candy store window, ever since. Now, at 54, in one of those moments of pure baseball justice, Perlozzo is being allowed inside. The candy’s all his now. He’s manager of the Baltimore Orioles, at least for the last 55 games of this season. Nobody ever deserved a turn at the wheel more than Sam.The names that Perlozzo has worn on his chest include Reno, Tidewater, Toledo, Little Falls, Lynchburg, Hawaii and Jackson. Once, he was even a Yakult Swallow in Japan. Perlozzo hasn’t taken that uniform, which defines him, off his back for the last 28 years. But sometimes, those uniforms haven’t returned all the affection he bestowed on them.
However I might want Perlozzo to succeed, he hasn’t. His handling of the bullpen – especially his reliance on Danys Baez who’s allowed the winning run way too many times to earn any degree of confidence from the team. (Allowing him to pitch the ninth with a six run lead was not a bad idea though.)
It’s not good that he appears to be losing the clubhouse.
Perlozzo has been under fire recently because of several in-game managing decisions and clubhouse unrest. On Friday night, third baseman Melvin Mora became the third Oriole to publicly criticize the manager after he learned from a reporter that he was not in the starting lineup.
Until Perlozzo’s predecessor, Lee Mazzilli was fired mid-season, the team under Angelos had never fired any manager mid-season. (In retrospect, was Mazzilli that bad? Boswell got in his digs. OTOH, in 2004 the Orioles had two months of success and in 2005 three great months. Both times the hope faded quickly and the season ended as most Orioles’ seasons have ended for the past decade – in 4th place ahead of only Tampa Bay.)
Ideally, I’d hope that the team would wait out the season. The Orioles do not have the offense to win much more than 81 games, so changing managers isn’t going to be the difference whether or not the team reaches the post season.
According to the Pythagorean projection the Orioles are only 1 game below their expected record. So Perlozzo, despite his mistakes, can’t exactly be called a disaster.
Also with the pitching going well – especially reclamation project Jeremy Guthrie – can the team afford to alienate its most valuable coach, Perlozzo’s friend and pitching coach, Leo Mazzone? Mazzone came to Baltimore to be his friend’s right hand. Would he stay with the team if Perlozzo left? The team’s better off waiting out the season.
Unfortunately with the latest buzz, I don’t think that Perlozzo will last the season.
According to two club sources, the Orioles will give serious consideration to bringing back Davey Johnson if Perlozzo is let go during his second full season as manager. Johnson’s highly successful two-year run as manager ended in 1997 when he abruptly resigned because of a conflict with owner Peter Angelos after the organization’s last winning season.Johnson, who couldn’t be reached to comment yesterday, was 186-138 with the Orioles in 1996 and 1997 and directed them to back-to-back American League Championship Series. He hasn’t managed in the majors since leading the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1999 and 2000 seasons.
He was the bench coach for the U.S. team in the 2006 World Baseball Classic and is managing the American team in its quest to qualify for next year’s Summer Olympics.
To this point, the Orioles, according to sources, have not had significant discussions with Johnson or any other potential candidate, including former Florida Marlins manager Joe Girardi, who also is well-regarded by team executives.
Angelos didn’t return calls seeking a comment, but one club source said the owner is intent on giving Perlozzo every opportunity to get the team back on track. The Orioles entered last night’s game with the Oakland Athletics a season-high six games below .500.
I have no idea who those two club sources are. Flanagan and Duquette refused to discuss Perlozzo on the record. Did they speak off the record too? Once names like Davey Johnson and Joe Girardi are being discussed it’s not a good sign.
Perlozzo, certainly has his faults as manager. And as much as I wish that Davey Johnson hadn’t been shown the door, I don’t see what he can accomplish with the season underway. (He quit when Angelos refused to extend his contract.) Let Perlozzo finish out the season, then sort things out. Frankly, the Orioles have bigger problems than their on-field management.
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Soccer Dad linked with Embattled...
On Valentine’s Day, the love comes out for the greatest game in the world -
Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter: “I think because everybody can relate. You don’t have to be seven feet tall; you don’t have to be a certain size to play. Baseball is up and down. I think life’s like that sometimes, you know. Back and forth, up and down, you’re going through this grind. I think people like watching it. Baseball’s like a soap opera every day.”
Ernie Banks, Cubs legend and Hall of Famer: “It’s just life. When I think about baseball, it’s just life. It’s really the way life is. It requires a lot of mental capacity to be involved in it. It creates a lot of joy for people and memories for people who follow it. It’s a family. You like it because it’s a family. You started with it and know all these people — it’s family, it’s friends, it’s fun, it’s a beautiful game. All in all, baseball is amazing.
Joel Kweskin, 56, White Sox fan based in Charlotte, N.C.: “It’s unique unto itself. Football, basketball and hockey are variations of the same concept — back and forth in a linear progression to score a goal. Baseball, however, is mapped out on the field unlike any other sport. A running back or return specialist can run 100 yards, tops; a baserunner legging out an inside-the-park homer runs 20 yards farther. Baseball is the most democratic of sports — any size can play, and because the ball is not controlled by the offense but rather the defense, every player at any given time is involved in a play. Along with the anecdotally accepted premise that hitting a pitched baseball is the single most difficult thing to do in sports, so might be fielding a 175-mph line drive or grounder down the line. I love baseball because it is the greatest game ever invented.”
Former Royals star Willie Wilson: “The first thing is, I don’t think there’s any criteria for size, so anybody can play. I think people can relate. A lot of people never played football; basketball, you’ve gotta be tall and be able to jump. But baseball is a game where you pick up a bat and a ball, and you catch it, you swing the bat and you hit the ball. Most people have played softball or some kind of baseball, so they can relate to the sport. For me, that’s why I think America just embraces baseball, man.”
Baseball Blogger Travis G.: Where to start? I think better when I make a list.
1. Players. The requirements to be a good baseball player are very undefined. You can be short, tall, thin, chunky, anything really. You name the greats and you get tall and chunky (Ruth, Ortiz), short and chunky (Yogi, Gwynn), tall and thin (Sizemore, Jeter), short and thin (Reyes, Ichiro). They may not be the best athletes (e.g. David Wells), but when they’re playing the best game in the world, who cares?
2. The Mentality. Baseball requires more intelligence than any other sport (save for NFL QB). Simply put, every hitter that steps to the plate is trying to out-think the pitcher, and vice versa. 4-5 times a game, focus has to be completely on the man in front of him. Will he throw a fastball, curve, change? If you take an at-bat (or even a pitch) off, you’re toast. Same thing with the pitcher. The only other sport that comes close is football, but mainly just for the QB. Baseball requires every single player to have good mental capacity.
3. The Field. Football, hockey, basketball and soccer all use essentially the same type of field/playing surface: a rectangle. Baseball uses a diamond. It’s not only unique in that aspect, but every single ballpark is unique amongst the sport. Each park has its own quirks and intricacies that make it special. Not a single other sport can say that. Yankee Stadium has Death Valley, the short RF porch, and the facade. Fenway has the Monster. Shea has the apple. Wrigley has the ivy-covered brick. Pac Bell (or whatever it’s called now) has the bay in RF. Houston has the hill in center. Imagine if the RCA Dome’s field was only 95 yards; that’s the equivalent of Death Valley or the Green Monster.
4. One on One. Basically the speech DeNiro makes in The Untouchables. Baseball is a team game: 25 men. But each of them takes one turn – by themself – to help the whole team. Then the next batter gets a chance. Because of the batting order, a team can’t simply send its best hitter up every at-bat. You can’t just give the ball to Jordan or Shaq (Pujols or Ortiz) every time. A team’s best hitter will get 4-5 chances a game to help his team. That’s it. You need a complete team to win.
5. Substitutions. Once a player is removed, he’s done. You can’t just sub in the best defenders when you have a lead. You can’t take out Santana for an inning because he’s tired, then re-insert him. Could you imagine the way baseball would be played if there were no substitution restrictions? It would be bedlam. Players don’t get any breaks (outside of the DH) during the game. Even late inning defensive replacements are a gamble if the trailing team comes back. And substitutions play an ever bigger role in the NL.
6. No Clock. No running out the clock. It doesn’t matter what inning and what score it is, you still need 27 outs to complete the game. There’s no easy way to ’seal’ a win. You still have to face every batter, and record every out.
7. History. When Japanese kamikaze pilots flew their planes into American ships, they would often yell ‘Fuck Babe Ruth!’ No other American sport has the history baseball does. Some of the most iconic figures in our culture are Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio, Mantle, Ripken, McGwire, Bonds, Aaron, Clemens, Jeter. It’s goes all the way back to the 1830’s. The ‘Junior Circuit’ (AL) had been going strong for over 45 years before the NBA ever started. The Yankees had already won 20 World Series before the first Super Bowl was ever played. I just love that feeling of history when I watch a game.
8. Summer. What better sport to exemplify the feeling of summer than baseball. The only summer sport we have. Warm weather, kids are out of school; remember the day games with your dad, drinking a soda, eating a hot dog? No other sport lets you enjoy the weather. Hockey and basketball are indoors. And the football season lasts from September to February, nuff said.
9. Connection. This ain’t football where the most ardent fans get to see a maximum of just 24 games (including the pre and post-season). Baseball is 3 hours a day, 6 days a week for 6 months. You get a minimum of 162 games. That’s double basketball and hockey, and 10 times that of football. Not only do you get to see your ‘guys’ 162 times a season, but you actually feel close to them. They’re not wearing masks to cover their faces (football, hockey), so you see (and often share) their reactions and emotions. You don’t get that feeling of ‘closeness’ from other sports. And then when you add the fact that baseball plays 162 games, it’s easy to understand where the connection comes from. When the season is over, it’s like you not seeing your family for 5 months.
10. Home-field Advantage. Having the home team hit in the bottom of each inning assures that every team, every season (even Kansas City) will have its share of thrilling, bottom of the whatever, walk-off wins. It’s nothing like football where you squib kick it or have the QB kneel down, or in basketball where you dribble out the clock or foul the opponent 10 times.
Your thoughts?
I knew about the fledgling Israel Baseball League; I did not know that Dan Duquette was involved.
The other big name involved in the league is Dan Kurtzer, formerly U.S. Ambassador to Egypt and Israel (as well as Dean of students at Yeshiva University.)
The Israel Baseball League website has links to a number of background articles about its founding. There’s also a Bible and baseball contest that allows entrants to win souveneir prizes from the league. (It would not be enough to submit “In the big inning …” as an entry.)
One of the rotating links at the side of the website brings you to Jewish Major Leaguers, that, among other things, has produced a set of baseball cards of Jewish ballplayers.
I guess I’ll have to root for my brother’s home team Bet Shemesh Blue Sox.
Crossposted at Soccer Dad.
In his days since being the GM for Boston Red Sox the Duke has found something to do:
Duquette has spent the past few months scouting players in Israel and Massachusetts and plans to hold additional tryouts before the six-team league opens its season on June 24. The teams will be the Bet Shemesh Blue Sox, Netanya Tigers, Petach Tikva Pioneers, Jerusalem/Gezer Lions, Haifa/Nahariya Stingrays and Tel Aviv Lightning.
Wonder who is going to play in this league?
The league has attracted castoffs from major league teams, former college and high school players who never got a shot at the pros, and ordinary fans with a dream.
Officials also said they hope to compete in the 2009 World Baseball Classic with Jewish major and minor league players such as infielder Kevin Youkilis of the Red Sox and pitcher Jason Marquis of the Chicago Cubs.
Sounds a lot like the players who represented Italy in last springs WBC. The Duke’s plan is noble, and hopefully it will succeed for the good people of Israel but I do not think this is what he had in mind for his job after MLB.
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ESPN’s most popular show, by far, is “Pardon the Interruption” (PTI), the chat fest staring Tony Kornheiser and Mike Wilbon. It airs at 5:30 Eastern weeknights. For most of us, it means it’s on while we’re driving home from work. No problem. Through the magic of TiVo, I can watch the show at my convenience when I get home.
Except when I can’t. Which is quite often. Like tonight, for example. The programming geniuses at ESPN bumped PTI to show the remainder of a game in some meaningless baseball exhibition between Cuba and the Dominican Republic, with the score standing at 9-1 in the 9th inning. Aaaargh.
This happens routinely, with PTI getting bumped by a college basketball game involving schools who haven’t seen a player drafted by the NBA since the 1950s. Or amateur golf.
Surely, I am not alone in preferring to see the show that’s supposed to be on than a sport that’s so lame it is on live at 5:30 on a weeknight?
Team USA remains alive in the World Baseball Classic thanks to some timely hitting from Alex Rodriguez and some help from the umpire.
Alex Rodriguez came through with the winning hit for the United States after Japan appeared to get the short end of a controversial call. Rodriguez hit a bases-loaded, two-out single in the ninth Sunday to give Team USA a 4-3 victory in the opener of Round 2 in the inaugural World Baseball Classic. Vernon Wells opened the ninth with his third hit, and Randy Winn sacrificed, but reached first when second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka drew an error for coming off the base while catching third baseman Akinori Iwamura’s throw.
Loser Kyuji Fujikawa threw out Wells at third on Michael Young’s attempted sacrifice, and Derek Jeter was hit by a pitch to load the bases. Ken Griffey struck out before Rodriguez appeared to be jammed on a 1-1 pitch, but his grounder got past Fujikawa and Nishioka’s sliding attempt behind second was unsuccessful. The run was unearned because of Nishioka’s error. Rodriguez went 2-for-5, making him 7-of-14 in the Classic.
An announced crowd of 32,896 attended the opener of Round 2. Mexico and South Korea were scheduled to meet later Sunday at Angel Stadium, where single games will be played Monday through Thursday to complete the second round.
Japan appeared to take a 4-3 lead off Joe Nathan in the eighth when Iwamura flied to left with one out and the bases loaded. Nishioka beat Winn’s throw home, but umpire Neil Poulton ruled Nishioka left the base before the catch was made. It didn’t seem that way on the television replay, and manager Sadaharu Oh argued to no avail.
Japan loaded the bases in the ninth on three walks before winner Brad Lidge, Team USA’s sixth pitcher, struck out Hiyoshi Tamura to end the inning.
The fans began a “USA! USA!” chant for the first time in the game with one out and one on in the sixth, and Derrek Lee responded a few pitches later by hitting a 3-1 delivery from Naoyuki Shimizu over the left-center field fence to tie the game 3-3.
[...]
Dontrelle Willis will start Monday night when Team USA faces South Korea, and Roger Clemens is scheduled to pitch Thursday for the Americans against Mexico.
The WBC semifinals will be played Saturday in San Diego, where the winners will meet for the championship of the inaugural Classic two days later.
U.S. Team Waits to Learn Fate in WBC
Johnny Damon and his U.S. teammates had a hard time figuring out exactly what needed to happen for the Americans to advance in the World Baseball Classic.
It was complicated — and all worked out fine for the U.S. team on Thursday night when Mexico scored four runs in the top of the first inning against Canada.
“This tiebreaker stuff, you’ve got to go to school for it,” Damon, the New York Yankees’ latest addition, said in the Scottsdale Stadium dugout before a workout. “I thought there would be a clear-cut winner and a clear-cut loser. … It’s definitely a weird feeling.”
After losing to Canada 8-6 in a first-round game Wednesday night, Team USA’s fate Thursday was in the hands of the Canadians and their next opponent, Mexico. Those teams played at Chase Field in Phoenix.
If Canada wins and the United States defeats South Africa on Friday, the Americans would reach next week’s second round in Anaheim, Calif. Even if the U.S. team lost to South Africa, it would have to get beat by more than seven runs because Team USA has the tiebreaker against Mexico after its 2-0 win Tuesday.
But if Mexico beat Canada to leave a three-way tie at 2-1, Team USA would have moved on only if Mexico scored at least three runs. Mexico ended that suspense with four straight doubles off Canada starter Jeff Francis to take a 4-0 lead.
The three-way tiebreaker is based on runs allowed.
In this odd system, the United States would’ve been eliminated — before it plays South Africa — if Mexico had beaten Canada by scores of 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1.
Hudson, not Smoltz, to start Opening Day for Braves
Tim Hudson will start Opening Day for the Atlanta Braves. The change in the rotation comes with the blessing of 2005 Opening Day starter John Smoltz, who says it’s time to pass the honor to Hudson. “Huddy is Opening Day starter for the future here,” Smoltz said. “As long as Huddy’s here, he’s going to start Opening Day. Huddy’s the guy.” Added Smoltz: “I’m just tickled to death being healthy.”
Hudson is scheduled to start the April 3 opener at the Los Angeles Dodgers. “If everything works right, Hudson will open,” manager Bobby Cox said. “It’s Hudson’s turn this year.”
Smoltz will turn 39 on May 15. In his return to a starter’s role last season, he was the workhorse of the staff with a 14-7 record, 3.06 ERA and team-high totals of 33 games started and 229 2/3 innings pitched. “I want to lessen his workload this year, whether it’s pitch Opening Day or work after him, so he doesn’t have to do what he did last year,” Hudson said. “That’s the main goal.” Smoltz finished last season with a sore shoulder. After the season he said he probably wouldn’t have been able to pitch in the National League Championship Series if the Braves had advanced past Houston in the division series. Smoltz says he feels fine following an offseason of rest, but concern about opening the season healthy led him to pull out of consideration for the United States’ World Baseball Classic team.
Hudson was 14-9 with a 3.52 ERA for the Braves last season, which he now says was “a bit of a blur for me.” “I had a new team, new teammates, a new baby,” Hudson said. “It seems a lot more settled right now. The dust has settled. It feels a lot more like it’s supposed to right now.”
Smoltz said he wanted to take pressure off Hudson by assuming the No. 1 starter’s role last season. “Last year was different,” Smoltz said. “He had just gotten here. From a pressure standpoint for Huddy, it was easier if he didn’t.” Smoltz said he is “far removed” from worrying about making the Opening Day start. “I’ve been there, done that,” he said. “Just get me to the playoffs healthy. My goal is to be healthy and strong at the end of the season.”
Hudson will be the Braves’ sixth different Opening Day starter in the last six years. In the previous 11 years only three pitchers — Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine — made Opening Day starts.
The right move, methinks. Smoltz is just too injury prone right now to waste him early in the season. By backing off his work, including skipping the occasional start, the chances of him being there in September and October increase. For a team fighting for its 15th straight division title–and second World Series championship–that’s what’s important.
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