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- The two main sources for Senator Mitchell’s report were a Mets clubhouse attendant and a Yankees trainer. They were both threatened with jail time. No wonder the list has a lot of former and current New York players. If the sources worked in LA or Chicago or Boston, I’m sure many of those city’s players would be named.
- George Mitchell is a director for the Boston Red Sawx (and has been since 2002). Not one current Sawx player is named. Coincidence? Imagine naming your co-workers/employees ‘cheaters’, then walking in Monday morning: “Hey fellas, how was your weekend?” I know I couldn’t do that. Why couldn’t Bud Selig find an investigator for such a major case that didn’t have a clear conflict of interest?
- I’m disappointed that Andy Pettitte was named. Clemens and Giambi were expected, but not Andy. The report states he took HGH (human growth hormone) in 2002 to speed up his elbow rehab. Not as bad as Clemens’ use of it, but still disappointing.
- Since one of the main sources was a Yankee trainer, it probably means that those not named are clean – I think that’s a fair assumption. Good news for Derek, Jorge, Arod, Cone, O’Neill, Mo, etc.
- George Mitchell did not have any real power in this investigation. The player’s union did not want any players talking to him and he didn’t have any subpoena power. That’s why he had to go through other ‘sources’ like the former Mets and Yankees employees.
- All together, it should be taken with a large grain of salt. Some players were linked merely by hearsay, and some by former employees threatened with jail time – a lot of circumstantial evidence like checks and phone records. I doubt this would stand up in court. Elsewise, just because a player wasn’t named doesn’t mean they didn’t juice. Outside of the Yanks and Mets (whose employees provided the two main sources), most every player is still a suspect. For all the money and time spent on this investigation, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire weren’t named. What does that tell you about it’s definitiveness? It’s a shame if those not named are somehow seen as ‘beacons of integrity’ or some shit because it’s simply untrue.
- ESPN showed a montage of Roger Clemens during their Mitchell Report special. It included only shots with the Yanks – what happened to his time with Boston, Toronto and Houston?
- Since most Yankee steroid use didn’t begin until 2001, Mark Feinsand says it doesn’t tarnish the Dynasty years.
- Oh, and the Yanks and Arod finalized his 10-year deal. He’ll make a base of $275 million and as much as $305 million with home run based incentives.
Update 7:19 pm
For what it’s worth, David Justice (named as a user in the report) on the YES Network strongly denied using any illegal substances.
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| Thursday, December 13, 2007 |
Baseball’s hot stove season keeps crackling along with a firesale beginning in Baltimore, a strange signing in San Francisco and the effective release of a phenomenal talent with an arm that was abused.
Dead Team, Dead Team Swapping
Let’s start with the Orioles.
Andy MacPhail is the new head honcho in Baltimore and his primary job is turning around a moribund franchise. It is about time. The Orioles recently woes have resulted in poor showings, fan protests and the dreadful overreach that typifies teams just beyond terrible, but nowhere near good.
Move number one in the now ongoing firesale:
| Orioles Give |
Astros Give |
|
|
- OF Luke Scott
- P Matt Albers
- P Troy Patton
- P Dennis Sarfate
- 3B Michael Costanzo
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It’s an okay haul. Scott compares rather favorably with Trot Nixon at the same ages, giving the Orioles a competent outfielder, who will inexpensively complement and Nick Markakis. Costanzo may end up in the big leagues. He is on his third team this offseason, and is blocked by Melvin Mora. However if Mora is shopped, the Orioles could do worse than the 24 year old with good pop in his bat. Albers and Patton were the top pitchers in Houston’s farm system entering 2007. Neither pitched well with Houston, and both have iffy K rates. But both get groundballs and with a good infield defense have the potential to be respectable at the back of the rotation.
Houston meanwhile adds a slugging shortstop whose defense is declining and who, as an added bonus, has been linked to steroid allegations. For Baltimore, moving him prior to this afternoon’s release of the Mitchell report was an obvious priority. Even if not named, Tejada is tainted by association, possibly unfair.
Other Orioles likely to get moved before the end of this offseason: P Erik Bedard, 3B Melvin Mora, 2B Brian Roberts, OF Jay Payton, and Ramon Hernandez.
Currently, the Orioles need help at shortstop, centerfield and on the mound. Making more moves will yield more potential solutions, while opening more holes. This is the beginning of an about to be gutted franchise.
The Old and the Rested
The San Francisco Giants don’t seem too interested in younger talent. Their starting position players wheezed in with an average age of 36.25 last year. They will be around 34 years old on average next season, unless Giants GM Brian Sabean can find some geezer to play at either the hot or cool corner and thus spare fans the disgrace of having a 26 year old regular (Kevin Frandse) in the starting lineup.
To that mix, the Giants made a big splash yesterday inking centerfielder Aaron Rowand to a five year, $60 Million contract. Rowand will be thirty next year, which makes him the young whippersnapper of the Giant lineup. He also has the job of replacing Barry Bonds in the lineup. But Rowand is not a slugging outfielder like Bonds. Nor is he a prolific on base machine. Aaron Rowand is an outfielder who enjoyed an outstanding season in his walk year.
Let’s go to the numbers
| Name |
AB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
BABIP |
| Aaron Rowand ’07 |
612 |
.309 |
.374 |
.515 |
.348 |
| Aaron Rowand car |
2664 |
.286 |
.343 |
.462 |
.323 |
Not familiar with BABIP? Some folks aren’t. It is a very useful statistic to get a gauge on luck. The statistic measures Batting Average on Balls in Play. As a formula:
BABIP = Hits – Home Runs /At Bats – (Homeruns + Strikeouts)
Your league-wide BABIP is typically around .300. Rowand’s career is an exercise in better than average BABIP. It’s less than 10% over league average, but when he is closer to lerague average, as he was in 2005 with the ChiSox and 2006 with the Phillies, almost all of his offensive value vanishes.
| Name |
AB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
BABIP |
| Aaron Rowand ’05 |
578 |
.270 |
.329 |
.407 |
.318 |
| Aaron Rowand ’06 |
405 |
.262 |
.321 |
.425 |
.297 |
See what I mean? Further, Rowand has always benefited from playing in Homerun helping Parks. Moving to San Francisco may cause his power surge to vanish, as well. But hey, it’s only five years and $12 Million per year. That’s nothing. Which unfortunately for Giants fans will describe what the Giants have for the better part of the next decade. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are nice young pitchers. Noah Lowry is a healthier version of better than league average Aaron Cook, and Barry Zito, is an overrated league average innings muncher. They will have the pitching, but they still will struggle to win seventy games likely for the next five or six years.
Prior Descent
Mark Prior will be 27 next season. He put up remarkable numbers as a 22 year old in 2003. His 18-6 record in 211.1 innings pitched was worthy of acclaim, and we now know a dead canary in a coal mine.
Indians Executive Keith Woolner in his previous line of work at Baseball Prospectus developed a metric for measuring the abuse a starting pitcher takes from being overpitched. This was an expansion of the original Pitcher Abuse Points system introduced by Rany Jazayerli in 1998. Keith’s expansion focused more on egregious abuse of pitchers, instead of the minor tweaking of a young arm by exceeding 100 pitches.
For perspective, Daisuke Matsuzaka led the majors in PAP^3 last season with 116,740 followed by Carlos Zambrano (114,011) and AJ Burnett (97,899).
| Mark Prior’s PAP^3 scores |
| 2002 |
89,046 |
Age 21 |
Including a 54,872 PAP^3 138 pitch outing |
| 2003 |
230,844 |
Age 22 |
|
| 2004 |
36,847 |
Age 23 |
Started the season on the DL and did not pitch until June. |
| 2005 |
102,159 |
Age 24 |
with a 25 day stint on the DL mid season |
| 2006 |
1,000 |
Age 25 |
|
But PAP^3 is not the only measure of risk to a young arm. The rule of thirty is a way of measuring the damage done to a young arm year by year rather than start by start.
Beginning with his Age 19 season at USC Prior pitched the following innings.
2000 129
2001 138
2002 167.2
2003 211.1
2004 118.2
2005 172.2
2006 62.2
Prior’s buildup with the Cubs went from a reasonable 140 or so college innings to an equally reasonable 170 professional innings from one season to the next. At the young age of 21, that is a little excessive, but, it was also consistent with advancing by 30 innings or less from year to year. The Cubs exceeded that rule of thirty by 15 or so innings in 2003, the year where as a 22 year old, he took almost twice as much abuse as any pitcher in 2007 did. In 2003, however, he
was fourth on in the majors behind Javier Vasquez, teammate Kerry Wood and Livan Hernandez. Another Cub starter (Carlos Zambrano) checked in at 11 on that list. The manager of that team got a new job recently to manage the Cincinnati Reds. Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, consider yourselves warned!
I am of the mindset that pitcher abuse disproportionately impacts arms outside of the 26-34 age range. Keeping young arms on a strict pitch and inning count is an investment in the future, by giving a young arm time to develop properly. As pitcher’s age, they are less reliable because they push themselves to the extremes that their bodies no longer are capable of achieving. The job of a good manager is to recognize when his older pitchers need a month’s vacation and sending
them off to rest and keep their arm fresh for the stretch drive. This essentially is what the Red Sox did with Curt Schilling this past season.
In addition to maximizing the effectiveness of an older arm, it also creates an opportunity for game level mentoring of young arms, removed from the stretch drive. Would giving a younger pitcher with some upside a showcase against major league teams, again strictly monitoring his pitch and inning counts, both groom him for an eventual job and give him the exposure that could potentially lead to a trade for a spare part? Certainly. It also provides an opportunity for
reclamation projects to get a full speed test int he fires of major league competition.
Speaking of salvage jobs, all this is prologue for the question out there, how many clubs will be pursuing Prior? The answer is all fo them. Prior represents the wonderful confluence of high upside and minimal risk. It’s a long shot, on par with the reclamation project called Kerry Wood but with longer odds and more upside. But it is worth investigating, offering and developing a program to ensure the soundness of his arm and the realization of his tremendous potential.
Now the more fact based (will it work) question has no answer. Probably not is the most I will venture. But nothing ventured, nothing gained.
The Miami Dolphin quarterback shuffle continues on.
A source close to the Dolphins told The Palm Beach Post on Tuesday that Cleo Lemon will be the starting quarterback Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens and may have already been given the job for the Dec. 23 game against the New England Patriots, too.
Lemon would replace rookie John Beck, who started the previous four games but failed to lead the Dolphins to an offensive touchdown. An announcement is expected from coach Cam Cameron today.
The Dolphins were 0-9 when they handed the offense to Beck with the intention of the move being permanent. Now with only three chances left to avert infamy as the only NFL team to go 0-16, the Dolphins have opted to go with experience.
“Even when we made that change (to make Beck the starter last month), we felt like we needed a spark,” Cameron said at his Monday news conference, “and we were going to play the guy that we felt, at that time, gave us the best chance to win.”
Cameron pulled Beck after eight snaps in Sunday’s 38-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The second-round draft choice from Brigham Young was on the field for two possessions that both ended without a first down and a fumble that went for a Bills touchdown.
As much as I want Beck to succeed, he looked horrible against the Jets and at the beginning of the Bill game. I wouldn’t put him in there against New England at all, but would consider playing the QB against Baltimore and Cincinnati.
Bottom line- There isn’t much grounds for criticizing a change of heart by Cameron at QB. However I don’t think either Lemon or Beck will win a game for Miami this year.
The last time the Flyers did a similar scoring feat was in 1986. From AP-
Taking a few extra minutes to clear the hats off the ice was about the only thing that slowed down the Philadelphia Flyers.
Joffrey Lupul completed the first hat trick at home in two years for the Flyers, and R.J. Umberger matched him with three goals in Philadelphia’s 8-2 rout of the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday night.
*****
Not bad for a Flyers team who went 0-8 against the Penguins last year. This year, Philadelphia is 3-0 against its Atlantic Division rival.
*****
Lupul added three assists for the first six-point game for a Flyer since Eric Lindros on March 1, 1997, against Toronto. The Flyers also had two players with a hat trick in the same game for the first time since Tim Kerr and Dave Poulin each had three goals against the Islanders on Dec. 18, 1986.
I can’t ever recall seeing two hat tricks in a game. While I’m a fan of the notiously punchless Florida Panthers, I grew up watching the New York Islanders during their dynasty days. Thinking of it, I can’t remember the last Florida hat trick. I think it was during the 06-07 season.
The disgraced Gold Medal winner confessed two months ago to taking steroids prior to the 2000 Olympics. From AP-
LAUSANNE, Switzerland – The IOC formally stripped Marion Jones of her five Olympic medals Wednesday, wiping her name from the record books following her admission that she was a drug cheat.
The International Olympic Committee also banned the disgraced American athlete from attending next year’s Beijing Olympics in any capacity and said it could bar her from all future games.
Jones had already handed back the three gold medals and two bronze she won at the 2000 Sydney Olympics.
Last month, the International Association of Athletics Federations erased all of Jones’ results dating to September 2000, but it was up to the IOC to formally disqualify her and erase her Olympic medals.
The decision was announced by IOC president Jacques Rogge at the end of a three-day executive board meeting.
Jones won gold medals in the 100 meters, 200 meters and 1,600-meter relay in Sydney, and bronze in the long jump and 100-meter relay. She was the first female track and field athlete to win five medals at a single Olympics.
*****
The IOC postponed a decision on redistributing her medals, including whether to strip her American relay teammates and whether to upgrade doping-tainted Greek sprinter Katerina Thanou to gold in the 100.
The IOC’s move comes as no surprise. One thing I find intersiting is Jones not being to be at any future Olympics. Can she still attend the games as a spectator or does it just forbid her from associating with athletes?
Also the IOC postponed any decision to take away Jones’ relay teammates medals. I don’t see how they can take Jones while not taking the others. This sounds unfair to the gold medalists, but the IOC can’t just go half way in my opinion.
From the water is wet department of news.
THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. – No one came close to matching Tiger Woods on the PGA Tour, which is becoming as predictable as Woods being voted the PGA Tour player of the year.
With seven victories and another major championship, Woods won the award Tuesday for the third straight season and the ninth time in his 11 years since he turned pro. The only questions now are whether he’s playing his best golf, and how much better he can get.
“Is he spoiling everyone?” Brad Faxon asked after a pro-am round at the Target World Challenge. “I don’t see anyone close. I don’t see who the next guy is.”
Phil Mickelson was the only other player on the PGA Tour ballot with three victories, including The Players Championship. Woods won the money title by more than $5 million over Mickelson, and Woods’ stroke average was 1.4 shots per round lower than Ernie Els.
But when asked to review his year, Woods spent a lot of time looking at lost shots.
He was tied for the lead at some point in the final round of the Masters and U.S. Open and was a runner-up in both of them by a combined three shots. And the only tournament he failed to win during the PGA Tour Playoffs was at the Deutsche Bank Championship, where he took nine more putts than Mickelson in the final round and finished two back.
I predicted Tiger to be player of the year. Am I psychic or what?
At least no mention is made of Tiger becoming a Dad too. I’d point out that Masters Champ Zach Johnson did that also in 2007.
How long is it before the 2008 PGA Tour starts?
The former Louisville Cardinal coach didn’t last even a year in the NFL. From AP-
ATLANTA – Bobby Petrino resigned as Atlanta Falcons coach on Tuesday, having lasted only 13 games with the NFL team. A person within the league told The Associated Press that Petrino quit to return to the college ranks at Arkansas.
He left Louisville in January to become Atlanta’s coach for a five-year, $24 million contract, largely because the Falcons felt he could help star quarterback Michael Vick reach his full potential.
A few months later, Vick came under investigation for a grisly dogfighting operation that eventually led him to plead guilty to federal charges. He was sentenced Monday to 23 months in prison without ever taking a snap for Petrino.
A source familiar with Patrino’s decision, speaking on condition of anonymity because the school had not made an official announcement, said he was going to Arkansas. The Razorbacks have been looking for a coach for two weeks to replace Houston Nutt, who resigned after a tumultuous season and took the Mississippi job.
The school had no immediate comment on its coaching search.
The Falcons declined further comment beyond a terse, two-paragraph statement released Tuesday night. Owner Arthur Blank and general manager Rich McKay were scheduled to hold a news conference Wednesday.
There was no immediate word who would take over as head coach for the final three games, though defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson would be the most logical candidates.
Petrino walked right smack into the Michael Vick mess. That and the considerable differences in coaching pros, probably influenced Petrino to want to go back to the college ranks.
If Petrino does go to Arkansas, this saga sounds like Lou Holtz II. A college coach who couldn’t make it through one NFL year and then decides to return to the college ranks. Where did Holtz go his year coaching the New York Jets? Arkansas.
I wonder if any other retired players will come forward with the Mitchell report out due soon. From AP-
BALTIMORE – Retired first baseman David Segui admitted Monday that he used steroids and purchased shipments from former New York Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski, The Sun reported on its Web site Monday night.
Segui also repeated his June 2006 admission to ESPN that he used human growth hormone with a prescription.
He told the newspaper that he refused to talk to former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, whose report on performance-enhancing drugs is expected soon. Segui said he didn’t want to betray the trust of other players.
*****
Radomski pleaded guilty in April to federal charges of illegally distributing performance-enhancing drugs. As part of his agreement with the government, he was required to cooperate with Mitchell’s investigation.
Segui said he met Radomski after being traded to the Mets in 1994. They became close and still talk by phone several times a week — usually about fishing and family.
I remember Segui from my Star Tournament days. A slick fielding 1st baseman who didn’t have the power most players at that position possessed. A check of Segui’s career stats confirms it, his career high was 21 homers in 1997.
So all that HGH and steroid taking didn’t produce much for Segui. One day when feeling ill for some unknown reason, will he make a link to his foolish drug use years earlier? He was dumb to the stuff, one assumes his intelligence hasn’t all that much since his retirement.
The former Panther coach and GM makes his first appearance in Florida since quitting the organization. From the Palm Beach Post-
CORAL SPRINGS — When he was hired to coach the Panthers in May 2004, Jacques Martin stipulated that Mike Keenan come along as general manager. So some might consider it odd that the two haven’t spoken in the 15 months since Keenan left the organization.
Not Keenan.
“I just haven’t run into him,” Keenan said Monday after putting his Calgary Flames through a workout in preparation for tonight’s game against the Panthers at the BankAtlantic Center. “He coaches and manages the Panthers, and I coach the Flames.”
Tonight’s game marks Keenan’s first return in a professional capacity since the end of his two go-rounds with the Panthers, as coach (2001-03) and general manager (2004-06). Neither stint resulted in a playoff appearance.
Florida captain Olli Jokinen, who gives Keenan much of the credit for his matriculation from a 29-point scorer in 2001-02 to the star performer who has netted 89 and 91 points the past two seasons, said he won’t be surprised if Keenan is booed.
“That’s how the fans think,” Jokinen said. “But there’s been so many coaches and GMs – if you think that way you probably have to boo every team, because there’s so many people around the league who have worked here.”
If Keenan deserves to be booed, its for the horrific Roberto Luongo trade he made two months before leaving Florida. Other than that, it is just another game for Florida.
The Atlanta Falcon QB was sentenced today.
Michael Vick was sentenced to 23 months in prison Monday for his role in a dogfighting conspiracy that involved gambling and killing pit bulls.
The suspended Atlanta Falcons quarterback could have been sentenced up to five years by District Judge Henry E. Hudson. Vick was dressed in a black-and-white striped prison suit and apologized to the court and his family.
*****
Vick acknowledged he used “poor judgment” and added, “I’m willing to deal with the consequences and accept responsibility for my actions.”
Before the hearing started, Michael Vick’s brother, Marcus Vick, sat with his right arm around their mother, comforting her as she buried her head in her hands and wept.
Vick pleaded guilty in August, admitting he bankrolled the “Bad Newz Kennels” dogfighting operation and helped kill six to eight dogs.
*****
In a plea agreement, he admitted bankrolling the dogfighting ring on his 15-acre property in rural southeastern Virginia and helping kill pit bulls that did not perform well in test fights. He also admitted providing money for bets on the fights but said he never shared in any winnings.
Falcons owner Arthur Blank called the sentencing “another step in his legal journey.
Vick deserves every day he has to spend in jail. What he did to those animals was absolutely disgusting.
Even money says Vick doesn’t play another down in the NFL. Check back in sometime 2009 or later to see if I am right.
Vick’s humility at sentencing comes off as fake to me. He was rarely humble when playing pro football, why should anyone believe Vick is sorry now.
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