The analysis of Joe Girardi’s treatment of pitchers in his one managerial campaign with the 2006 Marlins. While we wait to find out who it will be, perhaps this will help.
Part 1
Pitcher Abuse Points -
Since I’m not a member of BPro, I can’t access their custom stat reports (which would have made this study much easier), so I did the best I could. Looking at Girardi’s treatment of starters vs. Torre’s treatment, we can see a few things. I looked at Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) in 2006 (for starters over 100 ip) – Florida’s starters accumulated a total of over 147,000 abuse points, whereas Yankee starters reached just under 48,000. This appears to be a huge difference until you realize Florida had six pitchers qualify while the Yanks had just four. A better way to equalize the measuring stick is to take the average PAP per pitcher: for Florida it was about 25,000 while the Yanks had about 12,000. So the gap isn’t quite as big as it seemed but there’s still a gap.
Outside of Total PAP, there’s also Max PAP, which is the maximum for a single game by that pitcher. Randy Johnson (I’m so glad I don’t have to type that name much anymore) had the highest single game PAP among the two teams: over 24,000! Then taking the average Max PAP of the teams puts the Yanks ahead – 7000 vs. 5000. So it seems Girardi pushed harder consistently but when Torre did push, it was very hard.
Then there’s Avg PAP which is (as you guessed) average PAP per start. Florida’s was higher: 800 PAP per start (not weighted toward number of starts), while the Yanks’ average Avg PAP was just 360.
The problem with PAP is that pitchers who suck will never get abused (e.g. go beyond 100 pitches), so a manager with a great rotation will look like a task-master when simply looking at PAP. This is part of the reason for the disparity – the Yanks 4th starter was Jaret Wright, who pitched more than six innings just twice in 2006 (he basically sucked – should Torre get credit for not using him a lot? I don’t think so). On the other side is Dontrelle Willis, a workhorse who pitched 223 innings in 2006 with a 3.87 era – should Girardi get penalized for counting on a great pitcher?
Conclusion: Torre has a slight edge here.
Part 2
Reliever Usage -
Using BRef’s Play Index, I looked at the raw data for how Girardi and Torre used relievers in 2006. Three ways of using relievers would worry me, so I searched for them – 1. relievers brought in on less than 3 days of rest to throw at least 40 pitches, 2. good relievers brought in to blowouts, and 3. the same reliever brought in on consecutive days.
The first search produced 16 hits for the 2006 Marlins vs. 14 for the Yankees. That’s a strike against Girardi. However, when you think about long relief, Girardi doesn’t look as bad. He had to call on relievers in the first three innings seven of those times whereas Torre had the excuse of using a long reliever just thrice. Accounting for those, Torre takes the lead with 11 vs. 9 for Girardi.
The second search was tougher because how does one identify a ‘good’ reliever and a ‘blowout’? I decided to go with relievers who had ERAs better than their team’s ERA (and pitched over 20 ip). And a ‘blowout’ being a game in the 7th inning or later with a five run difference. For the Marlins it was: Borowski, Tankersley, Herges, Kensing, Pinto, Resop and Nolasco.
Borowski was used in 10 blowouts! (and pitched in 72 games)
Tankersley 3. (49 gms)
Herges 14! (66 gms)
Kensing 6. (37 gms)
Pinto 6. (27 gms)
Resop 9! (22 gms)
Nolasco 0. (35 gms)
So blowout games (48) divided by total games (308) = 16 %
For the Yanks:
Proctor, Rivera, Myers, Bruney.
Proctor 16! (83 gms)
Rivera 9. (63 gms)
Myers 9. (62 gms)
Bruney 4. (19 gms)
38/227 = 16.7 %
So they’re pretty damn close with Torre using his good relievers a bit more often in blowouts. A strike against him.
The third search looked at how often Girardi used relievers (who pitched in at least 20 games) on consecutive days.
Borowski – 19 times
Herges – 11
Messenger – 9
Tankersley – 10
Kensing – 6
Pinto – 6
Resop – 3
So out of 436 relief appearances in 2006, 15 % (64) were made by pitchers on consecutive days. To have something for comparison, let’s also look at Torre in ’06. 487 total relief appearances by the 2006 Yankees:
Proctor – 20 times!
Farnsy – 14
Villone – 18
Rivera – 16
Myers – 20
Beam – 2
Torre used relievers on consecutive days 18.5 % (90 times). Another strike against Torre for bullpen usage. 3.5 % ain’t that big a difference, but realize Girardi used just one of his relievers on consecutive days more than 13 times (Borowski at 19), while Torre did it with five different guys.
Conclusion: Girardi manages a better bullpen.
Part 3
Injury histories -
This part is all about Florida’s starters, several of whom, after reaching career highs in innings in 2006 had either serious injuries or serious declines in 2007. Did Girardi’s managing cause either? First off, who were the affected pitchers?
DTrain:
2006 – 223 ip, 3.87 era
2007 – 205 ip, 5.17 era
Scott Olsen:
’06 – 180 ip, 4.04 era
’07 – 177 ip, 5.81 era
Josh Johnson:
’06 – 157 ip, 3.10 era
’07 – 15.2 ip, 7.47 era (injury shortened)
Ricky Nolasco:
’06 – 140 ip, 4.82 era
’07 – 21 ip, 5.48 era (injury shortened)
Anibal Sanchez:
’06 – 114 ip, 2.83 era
’07 – 30 ip, 4.80 era (injury shortened)
This piece of evidence is the most damning of Girardi’s managerial skills. All of these pitchers were under 25 in 2006, and with the Trio (Phil, Joba, Kennedy) set to be in the Yanks 2008 rotation, a manager who kills young’ins would be awful. Let’s take it pitcher by pitcher.
1. DTrain’s era went up nearly 1.5 runs, but I personally wouldn’t blame Girardi – Willis’ career high in innings was actually reached in 2005 (before Girardi), where he had a phenomenal era of 2.83. His innings went down in 2006, but his era went up a full run. If Girardi takes blame for his 2007 (5.17 era), then the 2005 manager (Jack McKeon) should take blame for Willis’ 2006 season that saw his era go up a full run.
2. Scott Olsen showed the largest non-injury related decrease. His era went up almost two runs (!) in nearly the same number of innings. He was arrested in July, so perhaps there were off-the-field problems. He also suffered an elbow injury in 2005 after pitching 100 innings between the majors and minors. The fact that Girardi had him pitch 180 innings the next year (after an arm injury) is a strike against him (although perhaps not entirely the reason, e.g. the arrest).
3. Josh Johnson pitched 152 innings in 2005 (the year before Girardi). Joe G pitched him 157 in 2006. Nothing to really fault Girardi about there. He suffered a non-workload related injury (Tommy John in fact) in August of this year after pitching 37 innings between the majors and minors.
4. Ricky Nolasco is another case like Johnson’s. He threw 162 innings in the minors in 2005, then 140 with Girardi’s Marlins. He suffered ‘elbow inflammation’ this year, but again, a non-workload related injury.
5. Anibal Sanchez threw 136 total (minor league) innings in 2005, then 200 (between the majors and minors) in 2006. This 64 inning increase is a lot (a 30 ip a year increase is considered ideal). Here’s the catch: Sanchez had Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2003. Is his arm the reason he missed most of 2007 (just 30 minor league ip), or if not, shouldn’t Girardi have been more careful with a 22-year-old former TJ patient? Yes, probably.
Conclusion:
Looking at the big picture, I do not think Joe Girardi was responsible for what happened to Florida’s pitchers this year. All the cases outside of Sanchez and maybe Olsen are clearly not his fault but Girardi’s taken a lot of unfair blame. And what about the GM? Shouldn’t he shoulder some of the blame too? Brian Cashman and Nardi Contreras protected Joba this year – why didn’t Florida’s front office take similar action to protect Sanchez and Olsen? And that was with a rookie manager, not a 12-year, four-titled, future Hall of Famer.
Part 4
Some things to remember:
- the fact that Girardi has just one year to analyze (small sample size)
- I didn’t address the belief that Torre has killed the careers of several relievers
- the D-Train effect, which radically skews the Marlins PAP numbers higher
- the Jaret Wright effect, which radically skews the Yanks PAP numbers lower
- I didn’t look at Torre’s pen usage outside of 2006
- Relating Girardi to Torre instead of the average ML manager (which would be way too time consuming)
Conclusion:
This has only compared Joe Girardi’s one year of managing to one year of Joe Torre’s 27-year managing career. Both sample sizes are a bit small to draw any definitive verdict, but (in the case of Girardi) it’s the only sample of his managing we have. Despite the sample sizes being statistically small, the conclusions do seem to jive with my own observations. I also haven’t compared Girardi to Don Mattingly, the other front runner for the job. He has no managing experience outside of being hitting coach and then bench coach under Torre for the past four years.
Why?
1. He was a bench coach for Joe Torre for two years. There aren’t many better bosses to learn from, especially in terms of dealing with the media and with megastar players (egos).
2. He spent this season working in the YES broadcast booth. How else to learn how to deal with the media than to actually experience it?
3. Girardi won Manager of the Year for his one season with the 2006 Marlins. No, it ain’t the most objective award, but he did manage to bring a seemingly awful team to a near .500 record.
4. You want someone the players look up to? Girardi was a hard-nosed player; he caught Mo Rivera and Andy Pettitte early in their careers and mentored Jorge Posada at the very start of his career (perhaps helping him become one of the best in the game?), and won three titles with those guys. I’m sure he’d have a shitload of respect from everyone in the clubhouse.
5. This part is mostly subjective, but he’s young (43), smart, and has less loyalties than Torre. He can bring some new ideas, some freshness perhaps to a team that seemed to stagnate under the 67-year-old Torre. He seems very intelligent from listening to him on YES – almost everything he says oozes baseball intelligence; he’s also got a great sense of humor and gets along well with Al Leiter, Michael Kay and Paul O’Neill (and Kenny and Bobby). Charm, charisma, whatever it is, he’s got it and it could go a long way to helping a ballclub. Outside of possible loyalties to Mo, Pettitte, Posada and Jeter, no one else on the Yanks was a teammate of Girardi’s, so all those feelings and egos that Torre was afraid to hurt because he was there 12 years (and seen somewhat as a father figure) would have no bearing on Girardi’s managing. Objective managing is the way to go.
Why not?
1. If Girardi, off the Yanks coaching staff for two years gets the job, will Don Mattingly feel slighted? Yes, probably. Enough to leave the team? I don’t know.
2. One of the big cons with Girardi is the way he got along (or didn’t) with Florida’s ownership during his season there. There’s no owner more imposing or distracting than The Boss. And even if he’s indisposed of, the Steinbrenner boys and Randy Levine seem to have taken a lesson from the pages of King George on how to disrupt a ballclub. Will Girardi be able to handle it the (usually successful) way Torre did? Since he served as Torre’s bench coach, I believe he can.
3. The other big con with Girardi is how he (supposedly) treated his young pitching staff. Several Marlins pitchers reached career highs in 2006 in innings pitched, and this year they had terrible injury problems. Is Girardi at fault? Is he the right guy for a staff that will have three early 20′s phenoms? This is a subject I’m going to tackle in depth, so stay tuned…
During Joe Torre’s press conference Friday, they kept flashing screens of where Joe ranked among Yankee managers. Two stats soured me – the first read:
‘Most Consecutive Postseason appearances:
Joe Torre 12
Casey Stengel 5
Joe McCarthy 4′
The second:
’76 postseason wins (all-time record)’
A casual sports fan seeing this would think Joe was the greatest manager in baseball history. But as usual, ESPN twisted stats to meet their viewpoint. Stengel and McCarthy managed when only one AL team made the playoffs every year instead of four (since 1995). And Joe managed the Yanks in the wildcard/three-round era when playoff teams play at least three games and as many as 19 – teams now have by far the most opportunities to win playoff games. It’s nothing major and most baseball fans know it, but ESPN should know better. As part of the media, they have a responsibility to represent the facts without trying to mislead.
So how many times did Joe manage the Yanks to the best record in the AL? To BRef for the answer…
2006
2004
2003
2002
1999
1998
So six out of 12 years is great, but they never had the best AL record more than thrice in a row as compared to Stengel’s five or McCarthy’s four. ESPN – the misleader in sports.
12 seasons, 12 playoff appearances, 10 division titles, 6 pennants and 4 titles.
The Yankees offered Manager Joe Torre a one-year deal with a base salary of $5 million and the chance to make another $3 million in performance bonuses. But after 12 years and 12 postseason appearances (including four World Series titles), Torre turned it down.
“We respect his decision. We appreciate everything he’s done. But it is now time for the New York Yankees to move forward, and we will be doing it very quickly,†team President Randy Levine said.
General Manager Brian Cashman said that Torre’s successor has not been named, nor have potential candidates been formally identified. “I can promise you that the process is going to take some time,†Cashman said. “I ask for everyone’s patience as we review the individuals and make recommendations to ownership.â€
Under the deal he was offered, Torre would have received a $1 million bonus for reaching the playoffs, another $1 million for reaching the American League Championship Series and $1 million if the team made the World Series. If he did lead the Yankees to the World Series in 2008, there would have been an $8 million option for the 2009 season.
This is a way for both sides to save face: the Yanks offer a very nice deal to a Hall of Fame manager instead of firing him, and Joe gets to decline the offer instead of coming back at a (possibly) reduced salary. This might have an impact on re-signing Posada, Arod, Mo and Pettitte, but I’m hoping Joe Girardi takes over the position. I know about the Marlins pitcher problems, but he did win Manager of the Year, has a rapport with many of the players, is young and intense, seemingly very knowledgeable (from his YES work), and knows what it’s like to play in New York.
What to do? With Scott Boras asking for an astronomical extension for Arod, perhaps he will opt-out to be a free agent. What will the Yanks do in that case? There are basically two options with a dream third option that’s unlikely to ever happen.
1. sign Mike Lowell
He’ll be a free agent this off-season, is coming off his best year yet and is a better defender than Arod. The caution flags arise when we realize that Lowell had his best year in his contract year (danger! danger!) and had huge home/road splits. His Fenway OPS was .226 higher than his road OPS. His career OPS at the Stadium is a sub-par .786 and he’ll turn 34 next year. I say stay far away.
2. play Wilson Betemit everyday at 3b
A far more efficient use of resources, considering Betemit’s salary isn’t even $400 K and he’s just 26 years old. His career OPS+ is just 98, but perhaps with regular playing time (something he’s rarely received) he could post numbers that more accurately reflect his immense talent. I could potentially see .270/.350/.450. His defense is about average for a third-baseman but his arm rivals Cano’s for the best in the infield.
3. trade for Miguel Cabrera
How much would it take to get the hefty 3b/OF slugging phenom from Florida? A lot. The 24 year old Cabrera (career 144 OPS+) would cost a lot of prospects, but Florida is open to the idea of dealing him, as they can probably only afford one of Dontrelle Willis and Cabrera. Apparently they want young, ML ready starting pitching, and since I’m totally unwilling to give up Hughes or Joba, what about Melky, Kennedy, Horne, Tabata/AJax and Betances for Miggy? It could turn out to be way too much or not nearly enough. A lot of it depends on Cabrera’s ability to get and stay in shape and how close Betances comes to reaching his mammoth potential. And the nice part is that Cabrera is actually a versatile (though poor) defender – he could play a below average 3b and OF, or be taught to play 1b and probably be just fine.
4. just sign Arod
The most risk-free option. I believe Arod wants to stay a Yankee and the Yanks obviously want him. If he bolts for the 4th team of his career, he’ll always (if not already) be seen simply as a mercenary/gun-for-hire type with no sense of loyalty or tradition and will go into the Hall of Fame never having a ‘true’ team or fanbase.
PS: Joba will enter Spring Training as a starter. Nice!
That’s why baseball needs a first round ‘best of seven’ series. Cleveland was a little better during this four game stretch, but I still think the Yanks were the better overall team (best record in the second half anyone?).
The sad thing is that we would have given Boston much more of a run for their money. Cleveland is highly unlikely to continue their insane hitting with runners in scoring position while the Yanks would be unlikely to continue their woeful RISP hitting. After all, during the 162 game regular season the Yankees OPS with RISP was .829 compared to Cleveland’s .743. Boston must be ecstatic to face the Tribe (5-2 in 2007) instead of us who went 10-8 against them.
I won’t kill Torre for deciding to start Wang over Moose because I agreed with it for several reasons: 1) Wang pitches much better at home, 2) short rest can be a blessing for a sinkerballer who tries to keep the ball down, 3) he only threw 94 pitches in Game 1, 4) I just didn’t trust Mussina. He sucked though and was one of the main culprits behind the series loss: 5.2 ip, 19.06 era. When your ‘ace’ gets shelled like that it’ll be tough to win any series – throw in the poor hitting (Jeter hit .176, Posada .133, Matsui .182, Melky .188) and that’s the series.
The bad news:
1. Obviously, the season’s over and the guys deserved a better ending.
2. At least a month of speculation about Mo, Pettitte and Jorge… oh wait, and a guy named Alex.
3. Boston has a better chance to win the LCS.
4. If they do win the series, I’ll have to listen to a lot of shit from my New England relatives at Thanksgiving.
The good news:
1. A far less stressful October from this point on.
2. Guys like Joba, Phil and Shelley got valuable postseason experience (and showed they could succeed) which should help them next year.
3. The possibility of bringing in a new manager. I like Joe but as some of the postgame guys said, the players have to raise their intensity level in the playoffs and it seemed like they were simply duplicating their regular season approach.
4. Their resiliency – this team seemed dead in late May (I was 80% sure they’d miss the playoffs) only for them to turn around the season and nearly clinch the best record in baseball.
4. Four months until pitchers and catchers report.
Phil Hughes saved the game and season tonight (for at least another 24 hours). Roger Clemens failed to get through three (with a bad hammy) so on came Phil who shut down Cleveland’s offense for 3.2 innings. How ironic that the guy that nicknamed ‘Little Rocket’ picked up the ‘Big Rocket’ in possibly his last game ever? He became the youngest pitcher to ever win a playoff game for the Yankees.
Arod had his first hit(s) of the postseason, as did Posada and Matsui, but the big blow came off the bat of Johnny Damon who delivered a 3-run HR that gave the Yanks a 5-3 lead. Later on Robbie Cano ripped a bases loaded single to right that Trot Nixon misplayed into a bases-clearing triple. That pretty much sealed the win.
I didn’t get to see much of Friday night’s bug-fest (I was out of town) – but I know Melky was the entire Yankee offense and even threw out a runner at home; and as the Yanks were clinging to a 1-0 lead, bugs descended into Jacobs Field causing Joba to uncork two wild pitches that allowed Cleveland to tie the game. In the 11th, Vizcaino sucked and Hafner ripped a 2-out bases loaded single to win the game…
Anyway, now that this is a series (literally, every other LDS ended in a sweep), the Yanks get to face Paul Byrd tomorrow who was shelled in his last start against them. Wang will start on three days of rest (good for a sinkerballer) at home with Mussina waiting in the wings, so this game looks to be in New York’s favor. A win tomorrow means Pettitte in Game 5 in Cleveland…
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