Well given the history the Ravens should get some satisfaction from last night’s performance.
The Ravens’ motivation for tomorrow night comes from the chance to end the New England Patriots’ perfect season, stop a franchise-worst five-game losing streak and make NFL history of their own.
If the 20-point-underdog Ravens beat the undefeated Patriots, it would mark the biggest upset in 33 years, at least by Las Vegas standards.
In recorded oddsmaker history, only one team has won an NFL game after being an underdog of at least 20 points. It occurred in 1974, when the San Diego Chargers upended the heavily favored Cincinnati Bengals, 20-17.
3rd and 10 at BLT 39
(1:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to K.Faulk ran ob at BLT 30 for 9 yards. Timeout #2 by BLT at 01:48. 4th and 1 at BLT 30
(1:48) H.Evans up the middle to BLT 31 for -1 yards.
PENALTY on NE-R.Hochstein, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 30 – No Play. 4th and 6 at BLT 35
(1:48) (Shotgun) T.Brady scrambles up the middle to BLT 23 for 12 yards (R.Lewis).
PENALTY on BLT-S.Rolle, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 23. 1st and 10 at BLT 18
(1:38) (Shotgun) K.Faulk up the middle to BLT 13 for 5 yards (H.Ngata). 2nd and 5 at BLT 13 (1:06) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to W.Welker (R.Lewis). 3rd and 5 at BLT 13
(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to W.Welker. Timeout #2 by NE at 00:55. 4th and 5 at BLT 13
(:55) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to B.Watson.
PENALTY on BLT-J.Winborne, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 13 – No Play.
There were 3 4th down plays in that series that looked like the Ravens had successfully defended their lead.
The first play isn’t listed as a play, for it was “Timeout #2 by BLT.” The Ravens had successfully stopped the one yard run, but the timeout was called before the play started.
On the next play New England got called for a false start, so even though the Ravens again successfully defended the run, the play was done over. The five yard penalty actually helped the Patriots. (A few play earlier the Ravens had declined a penalty, choosing to let the Patriots burn a down instead.)
Finally the 4th and 5 pass to Watson was incomplete, only then a penalty was called on the Ravens, and again the Patriots were saved from a 4th down.
All that said, it was still one of the most exciting games I ever saw. Even the game ended with a perfect 52 yard pass to Mark Clayton. Unfortunately Clayton was at the New England 3 when he caught it after time ran out.
If the Ravens have any chance of winning, they need to control the ball with a commitment to the running game. The Patriots have allowed 4.1 yards a carry, which is 20th in the NFL. But few teams can exploit New England’s run defense because most fall behind so early, which explains why offenses average 21.2 attempts (second fewest in the league) against the Patriots. Ranked third in the NFL in rushing, Ravens running back Willis McGahee is averaging 82.7 yards a game. He has scored a touchdown in each of his past six games. Edge: Ravens
Indeed McGahee ran for 138 yards and helped the Ravens hold the ball (and keep it away from Tom Brady.) He regularly broke tackles and had some really nice gains.
Perhaps the most meaningless stat in the game is that New England only converted 2 of 12 third down opportunities. That’s true as far as it goes. But as demonstrated above penalties and an ill-timed time out call bailed them out in the fourth quarter. But before that their second quarter touchdown drive was also aided by Baltimore penalties.
The Ravens controlled enough of the game that they should have won. But they gave Tom Brady a few too many extra chances and he exploited them.
I didn’t learn my lesson from 2000, when I woke a Yankees fan son to watch Mariano Rivera save the win against the Diamondbacks. Last night I woke a Ravens fan son to see the end of the game, even if his older (and now wiser) brother reminded me “Diamondbacks.”
Deadspin hopes this will stop those last minute time outs before big plays.
ESPN has released their Power Rankings for Week 13 of the 2007 NFL season and, despite the AFC hype, two NFC teams are in the top three. The voting was done by ESPN writers John Clayton, Len Pasquarelli, Matt Mosley, Jeffri Chadiha and Mike Sando; Scouts Inc. Insiders Jeremy Green and Keith Kidd; and ESPN.com NFL senior editor Mike McAllister.
Twenty different Patriots players have scored TDs this season. That equals or is more than the touchdown totals for 11 other teams this season. We know you never get tired of those kinds of comparisons, right?
Home-field advantage in the NFC likely is at stake Thursday, and the last thing the Cowboys want to do is play the NFC title game at Lambeau in January. But Wade Phillips has won a playoff game at Green Bay — as Atlanta’s D-coordinator in 2002.
Brett Favre has played five or more regular-season games against 18 different NFL teams — and his .286 winning percentage (2-5 record) vs. Dallas is his lowest. Add his 0-3 playoff record and Favre is batting .200 against the Cowboys.
The Colts, according to the Indy Star, have led or shared the lead in the AFC South for 90 of the 97 weeks since the division was formed in 2002. Beating the Jags on Sunday would likely add the rest of 2007 to that total.
The Jags are rolling into Sunday’s division showdown against Indy with a ton of confidence. "The guys are hungry," QB David Garrard told the Times-Union. "I’m sure everybody can feel this season is different."
Shame on the Steelers organization for allowing their MNF game to be played on such poor field conditions. It wasn’t fair to the players, or the fans who invested time and money to watch the game. Either get it right or start using the artificial stuff.
The Browns are plus-2 in the giveaway/takeaway category. That may not mean much to you, but the Browns have finished on the plus side of turnover differential just once since 1993.
In three previous meetings against the Eagles, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been sacked 11 times (including a career-high seven back in 2001) and has a 58.8 passer rating, his lowest against any NFC team. So what’s the over/under for sacks this Sunday?
You’ve heard of QB controversies, but with the backups? Jon Gruden isn’t revealing his hand on who will start against the Saints if No. 1 guy Jeff Garcia can’t play due to a back injury. The fans of Bruce Gradkowski and Luke McCown eagerly await.
Of the eight division leaders, none has a worse road record this season than the Chargers’ 1-4 mark. With their next two games at KC and Tennessee, LT knows what must be done: "We’re going to have to find a way to win on the road."
Go ahead, blame Eli (and he deserves it). But don’t forget to blame the rest of the Giants for a wretched performance against the Vikings. After all, the defense allowed Minny QB Tarvaris Jackson to post a 139.2 passer rating.
On five drives against the Bengals, the Titans entered the red zone. Three times they had goal-to-go situations. And yet they couldn’t find the end zone. It’ll be one of their many regrets if they don’t make the playoffs.
The Saints have underachieved, but at least they have a meaningful December, starting with a key home game against NFC South leader Tampa Bay. "It doesn’t get any better than it’s about to get," QB Drew Brees told the Times-Picayune.
Reports have surfaced that owner William Clay Ford Sr. wants the coaching staff to increase the workload of rookie WR Calvin Johnson. On the flip side, head coach Rod Marinelli is demanding that Ford build a better-looking SUV.
The question in Philly: Would Donovan McNabb had played better than A.J. Feeley did in nearly beating the Patriots? When healthy, McNabb’s still the main guy, but Andy Reid is adamant that nothing less than a fully healed McNabb will play.
So is running back Cedric Benson’s season-ending ankle injury a plus or minus for the rest of the season? Benson’s an underachiever, but it’s not like Adrian Peterson (Bears’ version) has run like Adrian Peterson (Vikes’ version) this season.
Until Sunday, the Broncos’ special-teams play — after a dismal start — had recently been among the league’s best. Perhaps that improvement resulted in overconfidence. Ultimately, it just led to a harsh lesson: Don’t kick to Devin Hester.
Earlier this month, the Vikings were blanked by Green Bay, 34-0, and dropped to 3-6. Hard to imagine now that they’re in the playoff race. A win on Sunday vs. Detroit (Adrian Peterson may be back) puts them in good shape.
Kurt Warner triggered the Greatest Show on Turf, yet he never threw for as many yards with those Rams offenses as he did Sunday against the 49ers. But his career-high 484 yards was overshadowed in the shocking way the Cards lost.
FedEx Field will be an emotional place the next two games, as the Redskins and their fans deal with the tragic loss of Sean Taylor. Joe Gibbs will need to draw on all of his coaching experience to get his team prepared for the rest of this season.
No team has committed more turnovers; in fact, opponents have converted Houston’s 29 turnovers into 108 points. "There are a lot of things we can do to win, but turning the ball over ain’t one of them," OT Ephraim Salaam told the Chronicle.
The Bills’ offense is not one for steady drives, as just four TD drives this season have been 10 plays or longer. J.P. Losman just doesn’t seem like a good fit, which explains why the Bills are going back to Trent Edwards this week.
Admit it — you’ve missed Ocho Cinco’s TD celebrations. Chad Johnson’s TV cameraman act opens up a whole new genre. Next time, let’s see him take a sideline reporter’s microphone and interview himself about his TD. Watch out, Rachel Nichols!
It has been 30 years since the Chiefs lost six home games in a single season at Arrowhead Stadium, but with a 2-4 home record, it could happen this year if they can’t beat the Chargers and Titans in December.
The five-game losing streak is the longest in franchise history, and it figures to reach seven with games against the Patriots and Colts the next two weeks. Right now, not even the Dec. 16 game at Miami seems like a sure win.
Panthers fans, frustrated by their team’s inability to win at home, are starting to stay away from Bank of America Stadium. That’s not good for the job security of coach John Fox and GM Marty Hurney, who are both on the hot seat.
After beating the Chiefs in the season finale of 1999, the Raiders went 33-15 the next three years, culminating in a Super Bowl appearance. Will Sunday’s win at KC have the same impact? "Maybe this is our roll," DT Warren Sapp told the Tribune.
Let’s see … Ted Tollner arrives to assist with the offense. The 49ers then produce a season-high 374 yards in beating the Cards. Does A+B=C? Seems that way, but maybe not. "Ted was very uninvolved in the play-calling," QB Trent Dilfer said.
Gus Frerotte’s fumbled snap was a heartbreaker, but the Rams should never have let it come to that in losing to Seattle. The offense went into a shell after taking a 19-7 lead, failing to produce points on their final nine possessions.
TE Alge Crumpler tells the J-C that "it just puzzles me that we can’t score points." But is it really puzzling that Atlanta’s averaging four points less than last season? Mike Vick’s absence accounts for at least that much, if not more.
If the Jets can’t beat the winless Dolphins this week, this season will likely end up as the team’s worst since the Rich Kotite days. And QB Kellen Clemens isn’t making much of a statement in his audition as the starter.
Hypothetical question: Could the Dolphins beat the Saskatchewan Roughriders, who won the Grey Cup on Sunday? It’d be tough, especially using those funky CFL rules. Of course, that wouldn’t faze Ricky Williams (2006 Argonauts).
It’s hard to argue much with these rankings, even if they’re a bit too closely related to teams’ overall records. Presumably, some teams that had hot starts but have since faded (Giants, Steelers) and teams that have started poorly but have gotten better of late (Rams) should have rankings weighted to reflect the recent performance. There might also be a strength of schedule component, as some teams play in much more competitive divisions.
Cleveland Browns kicker Phil Dawson beat the Baltimore Ravens with what one Digg user aptly describes as “The Craziest Field Goal in NFL History.”
A 51 yard field goal was attempted by Phil Dawson of the Cleveland Browns with no time left on the clock to tie the game and force overtime. It bounces off the pole, then comes down and hits another part of the goal post and bounces back onto the playing field after going completely through the uprights.
It was originally ruled No Good but that decision was quickly overturned. Here’s the video:
I’ve been watching the game for nearly thirty years and have certainly never seen anything like it before.
After the Ravens’ 13-3 playoff run last year, this year’s 4-5 record is a huge disappointment. At this point it’s a better bet that the Ravens will finish 6 – 10 than 10 – 6. In other words, it would be a miracle for this team to make the playoffs.
This has gotten a lot of fans and the media talking about who should stay and who should go. Rick Maese argued after the loss that Billick should go.
That time has come. The most important man not named Lewis in this team’s short history has reached a point of ineffectiveness.
In relation to Billick’s fine career pacing the Ravens’ sideline, the 2007 season feels like an old rock band getting wheeled out on stage long after the music died. Billick’s song has faded. He no longer moves the fans – but that’s not really the problem. Unfortunately, Billick no longer moves his players. There’s no harmony, no new notes. Where we used to bob our heads to the beat, we now shake our heads in defeat.
The column was largely a fan’s rant rather than an analysis. Billick has been a fine coach of the Ravens. He was at the helm for only two years when the team won a Super Bowl. However, looking at his whole record and the one word that comes to mind is “uneven.” Sure he’s had good years as coach, but he’s also had years like 2005, when the team went 6 – 10.
What is it about Billick that’s so frustrating? Mike Preston, put his finger on it.
The Billick defenders will point fingers at current quarterback Steve McNair. That’s the easy way out. The big picture is, what quarterback has prospered under Billick? Even Elvis Grbac, a Pro Bowl performer the year before he came to Baltimore, retired one season after playing here.
I remember that year well. Grbac was terrible in the red zone. (Backup Randall Cunningham was much better there. Or at least that’s what it looked like to me.)
It’s funny that Billick whose experience prior to Baltimore, was offensive coach for the Vikings, has presided over teams lacking in offense. Even 2000, the year the team won the Super Bowl, it looked like it was the defense and special teams that led the team. The offense was just there.
Preston continues:
For years, Billick got a free pass in Baltimore because some of his inadequacies were overlooked. As long as the defense continued to make plays, and the Ravens won, everyone was happy in the Castle.
But it’s different now. Some of the great defensive players are gone or have gotten older. This defense can’t dominate as it used to.
So, after years of riding Newsome’s drafts and the back of middle linebacker Ray Lewis, Billick can’t hold up his end as far as the X’s and O’s. The Ravens can’t overcome his weakness.
Preston doesn’t feel that Billick has to go, however he writes
We’ve heard all the excuses during the past nine years. Billick didn’t have receivers. He didn’t have a quarterback. He didn’t have athletic offensive linemen. He didn’t have a running back.
Blah, blah, blah. … Enough, please.
It’s time general manager Ozzie Newsome and Bisciotti delivered the ultimatum to Billick. Either he guts this system, or he goes.
But Billick isn’t the only Raven with a question mark hanging over him.
After last week’s game there was a question whether or not Steve McNair would continue being the team’s #1 quarterback. At the time David Steele answered in the negative.
Before the game, Steve McNair spoke up for himself. After the game, his teammates spoke up for him.
But his actions have spoken louder than any of their words. His actions are screaming out: This is the end. For McNair as the Ravens’ starting quarterback, and for the Ravens as the Super Bowl contenders he was supposed to have turned them into.
The answer for now has been answered by a very convenient injury to McNail meaning that he will be sidelined for at least the next few weeks. That would be enough time to evaluate what Kyle Boller’s value is to the team. (This is not longer an issue of potential. We’re way past that stage.)
So how can we expect Boller to perform? There’s been a lot of dissension. Even among those who feel that Boller is better than McNair for now, there seems to be little support for Boller as quarterback of the future. Except for Bill Ordine.
Putting it briefly, A) Boller has generally had to play under exceptionally adverse circumstances; B) He sill has a big-time arm that’s plenty rare; and C) Drafting quarterbacks is always an iffy proposition and now we’re looking at a crop of college QBs that lacks the blue-chippers of the last few years. (Free agent wise, I give you Vinny Testaverde and Tim Rattay).
Further on Ordine warns,
And there’s one more thing. Don’t expect Boller to work miracles in these last seven games. The Ravens have the toughest stretch of games imaginable. Boller is probably going to be playing from behind in most of them with all the disadvantages that implies. And the offensive line is not playing anywhere near as well as it did last season (14 regular-season sacks in 2006 and 17 so far in ’07). That means the bottom line on Boller will have to be weighted to reflect these realities.
So here’s the conclusion. Unless Boller absolutely comes apart at the seams or John Elway magically appears in the draft or as a free agent (oops, bad example), a fair decision on whether he’s a genuine playoff-caliber quarterback should wait until the end of 2008.
So how does the prognosis for each work out?
Billick – iffy.
McNair – iffy.
Boller – iffy.
Not very encouraging. Of all three, Boller appears to be in the best position. His future is largely in his own hands.
McNair’s comments that if he were replaced he couldn’t blame the team suggest that he is done. While it’s admirable for him to take responsibility, athletes who realize that there are better options than themselves are usually finished.
And Billick? I’m uncomfortable saying that the coach is at fault. However he’s had only 4 winning seasons in eight so far. The team has never been so far away from contention that he hasn’t been able to redeem himself.
Arguing for keeping him is that the team’s performance last year earned him a 4 year extension suggesting that owner Steve Biscotti realizes that his commitment is long term and is willing to take some lumps along the way.
Arguing against his continued service as Ravens coach is, I guess, Rex Ryan.
The Ravens know what is at stake for Ryan. He almost became the head coach of the San Diego Chargers in the offseason.
Since he became the Ravens’ coordinator in 2005, the team has had the No. 2- and No. 1-ranked defenses in the league. With one more good season — the Ravens are currently ranked fifth — Ryan will become a top head coaching candidate again.
If Billick is fired, Ryan would become a serious candidate here, especially because he is so popular with the players.
The Ravens have lost a lot of talented coaches over the years for head coaching jobs elsewhere. True, the results of those moves have been mixed. It also speaks well of the franchise that it recognizes coaching talent. But maybe now it’s time for the Ravens to say, “enough” and give one of their coaching stars the chance to be promoted.
There are still three undefeated teams going into Week 6 of the NFL season: the New England Patriots, defending champion Indianapolis Colts, and the surprising young Dallas Cowboys. They top this week’s Power Rankings as determined by the analysts at ESPN.
The Pats and Cowboys have met just nine times, so history doesn’t figure to influence Sunday’s game. But if it means anything (OK, it really doesn’t), Bill Belichick is just 1-3 vs. Wade Phillips.
Raise your hand if you figured Kenton Keith and Craphonso Thorpe (hey, no snickering!) would be integral parts of the Colts’ pummeling of the Bucs. Indy has made a habit of these 5-0 starts.
Can a kicker be rookie of the year? Not only did Nick Folk nail the 53-yarder (twice) to beat Buffalo but his execution of the onside kick was flawless. His only missed FG this season was a block by the Bears.
Want to see a textbook example of how to protect a lead? Check out what the Steelers did Sunday, holding the ball for nearly 25 of the 30 second-half minutes in their 21-0 win over the Seahawks.
The Packers, like most teams, aren’t good enough to turn the ball over five times, commit 12 penalties and still win. ‘We’re not a bad football team, but we’re not great either,’ said Brett Favre after the loss to the Bears.
QB David Garrard is doing the things that make coaches sleep easier — basically, he’s not screwing up. Garrard has yet to throw an interception this season, which helps explain why he ranks 4th in QB ratings.
For the fourth time since Jeff Fisher became head coach, the Titans have started 3-1. Good news for Tennessee: On those three previous occasions, they made the playoffs.
The 144 yards allowed to Detroit was the lowest total given up by a Redskins defense in 15 years. It helped that Washington enjoyed a nearly 10-minute edge in time of possession.
For the first time since their 2000 Super Bowl season, the Ravens won a game despite scoring only field goals. Injuries to the offensive line might force Baltimore to keep relying on Matt Stover for all its points.
Will having a new lead blocker get Shaun Alexander untracked? Leonard Weaver will be the new lead blocker for Alexander now that 15-year vet Mack Strong is retiring after suffering a herniated disc in his neck.
If the Bucs are going to be playoff contenders in the second half, they must find a solution (re: trade) to their RB injury woes. Names being mentioned by the Tampa Bay media: Vikings’ Mewelde Moore, Chargers’ Michael Turner, Broncos’ Mike Bell.
There are confidence boosters. And then there are CONFIDENCE BOOSTERS. The Chargers got the latter in routing the Broncos and can now move into at least a tie for the AFC West lead by beating the Raiders on Sunday.
With Matt Leinart out and 36-year-old Kurt Warner now the full-time QB, the Cards need a solid backup. But The Arizona Republic reports that it won’t be ex-Cardinal Jake Plummer, who has retired.
The Giants go into Monday night’s game at Atlanta having won three straight. Inconsistent play is still a troubling sign, though. Eli Manning on Sunday: 22 yards passing in first half, 164 in second half.
Although the Bears knocked the Packers from the ranks of the unbeatens, just how impressive was the win? The Chicago defense was steamrolled in the first half, and the rushing game produced only 82 yards on 33 attempts.
Will Kris Brown’s 5-FG performance go down as the greatest kicking day in NFL history? It should. He nailed three from 50-plus yards, including the winner from 57 with one second left to beat the Dolphins.
The Panthers are in a precarious state at quarterback. Jake Delhomme is out for the rest of the season. David Carr is banged-up. Undrafted rookie Matt Moore is now the backup. The phone lines will be heating up in Charlotte.
Take away the fourth-quarter, 34-point explosion against the Bears, and this much-ballyhooed Lions offense has been held out of the end zone in its past 10 quarters. But hey, it can’t be Mike Martz’s fault. After all, he’s an offensive genius.
Life figures to get worse before it gets better for the Broncos. They’ve been humiliated at home, have lost three straight and will come out of the bye week with games against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Detroit.
Don’t look now, but your AFC West leaders are … the Raiders, the only team without a losing record. The next two games (San Diego, Kansas City) should provide a better picture of just how seriously we should take Oakland.
The 49ers rank last in the league in time of possession, and with QB Alex Smith hurt, it doesn’t figure to get better. RB Frank Gore ranks 36th in the league in yards per carry (3.6).
Only Detroit (27) has allowed more sacks than the Eagles’ 19, but despite facing intense pressure, quarterback Donovan McNabb has thrown just one interception this season.
The Bengals hope to repeat their post-bye-week success of 2003 (when they won six of seven after going into the bye 1-4) and 2004 (when they won five of eight after going into the bye 1-3).
The last time the Browns won two consecutive games was 2003, and they sure weren’t going to do it Sunday at New England. But give the Browns credit for putting up a fight, even though, as 16-1/2 point underdogs, they still failed to beat the spread.
How bad has it gotten in K.C.? Tight end Tony Gonzalez is hoping the final-play TD the Chiefs scored to avoid being shut out by the Jags is ‘something we can build from.’ Well, might be easier if the Chiefs had a running game.
The Bills fortunately have a bye week to deal with the anguish of losing a game they should’ve won. But as many big plays as Buffalo made against the Cowboys, Dick Jauron correctly pointed out that it needed just one more.
A tough stretch awaits the Vikings coming out of their bye week. They face four consecutive playoff teams from 2006, starting with Sunday’s game at Chicago, then must travel to Green Bay in Week 10. Minnesota needs to improve in a hurry.
Is Chad Pennington on a short leash? The Jets quarterback has thrown five interceptions in the past two weeks, prompting some discussion that backup Kellen Clemens should start warming up. The Jets need a turnaround. Quick.
Warrick Dunn is expected to reach the 10,000-yard career rushing mark this season. But at this rate, it won’t be anytime soon. He gained just 27 yards in the loss to Tennessee, giving him 9,710 for his career.
Odds are against the Saints’ returning to the playoffs this season. Since the NFL increased the playoff teams to 12 in 1990, just one team — the ’92 Chargers — has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start.
If St. Louis loses at Baltimore on Sunday, this squad will tie the ’62 Rams for the worst start (0-6) in franchise history. And 0-7 is a distinct possibility, given that the Rams must travel to Seattle in Week 7.
How soon will the John Beck era begin Miami? Trent Green is out, and his career might be over. Cleo Lemon is now the starter, but it’s Beck, the second-round draft pick from BYU, who’s pegged as Miami’s future QB. The future might be now.
Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders ranked the 32 NFL linebacking corps. Here are his top 10.
1. Baltimore Ravens (12)
How talented is this group? So talented that they can lose Adalius Thomas to the Patriots and still finish first in our rankings. Ray Lewis and Bart Scott man the inside. While Lewis’ best days are behind him, he’s still the leader of this unit and the man who keeps everyone in line. You’ll see the occasional superlative moment (and reasonable consistency), but he’s no longer the player who defined his position in the early part of this decade. Scott took his first opportunity as a full-time starter and enjoyed a breakout season. He finished sixth in the NFL in Stop Rate and was the Head Quarterback Terrorizer among Baltimore’s linebackers with 9.5 sacks, 11 hits and 15 hurries.
Left outside linebacker Terrell Suggs’ fourth season was very much like his first three: outstanding from a pass rush perspective (he’s never finished a season with less than eight sacks and has averaged 10 per year), with an additional focus on run-stopping. Suggs finished third in the NFL in yards allowed per rushing play at 2.2, although that’s partly because he plays some defensive end in the Ravens’ flexible alignment. Replacing Thomas’ versatility and athleticism will be no easy task, and it’s possible that defensive coordinator Rex Ryan will try to do it by committee. Jarret Johnson is listed as the preseason replacement, but Dan Cody and Antwan Barnes will try to shake up the second tier in training camp.
2. San Diego Chargers (3)
If we were compiling a separate list for outside linebackers, the Chargers would take the top spot in an absolute rout. Shawne Merriman led the league in sacks despite missing four games last season after testing positive for steroids. Merriman claimed the test results came from a tainted supplement, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell disclosed in April of this year that Merriman has tested clean in 19 of the 20 drug tests he’s taken. It may be difficult for some to get over the stigma, because at his best, Merriman does things that simply defy belief. When Walter Jones pushes you to the ground on a pass play, and you somehow get up, get past the NFL’s best left tackle and still pick up the sack … well, people are going to wonder.
Lost in the shadow of Merriman’s “Lights Out” persona was the job turned in by Shaun Phillips on the weak side. Phillips had 11.5 sacks of his own and didn’t miss a beat when Merriman was out of the lineup, with three sacks and 20 tackles in three November games. The questions about San Diego’s linebackers are on the inside. The Chargers lost both of their inside starters: veteran Randall Godfrey was released after the draft, and free agent Donnie Edwards returned to the Chiefs after five seasons in San Diego. Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm are in line to replace Godfrey and Edwards, respectively, and that’s a lot of continuity to ask for when the “new kids” have totaled eight starts in eight seasons between them. Third-round pick Anthony Waters from Clemson could find an early place on the inside if he’s recovered from the torn ACL he suffered in his senior season.
3. Chicago Bears (2)
The defending NFC champs have had more than their share of off-season drama, and most of it surrounded the defense that got the Bears back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 21 years. The roster churn in the front four has been the big public story, thanks to Tank Johnson. But the real Sword of Damocles for the best defense of 2006 has been the battle between the team and Lance Briggs. The Bears franchised Briggs, and the elite weak-side linebacker has responded by threatening to sit out the first 10 games of the season. The Bears almost had a pre-draft trade done with the Redskins in which Briggs would be dealt for Washington’s first-round pick, but that fell through. We’re projecting him playing a full season, what with the potential payday and all. Briggs is a force no matter what is coming at him; he finished fifth in Stop Rate against the run and in the top five in Defeats against the run and the pass.
As good as Briggs is (and as improbable as his return to Chicago would be after this season), the defense belongs to Brian Urlacher. Urlacher continues the Chicago tradition of great middle linebackers, and may be the most versatile of the Bill George/Dick Butkus/Mike Singletary line. His closest antecedent of that group is George, the Hall-of Famer who played for the Bears from 1952 to 1965 and is credited by some as the first middle linebacker, a position he may have created when he dropped back from his middle guard spot in the five-man lines of the time and began defending the aerial game. George picked off eighteen passes in his career. Urlacher has long been regarded as one of the best in the modern game against the pass, and he matched his career highs in 2006 with three interceptions and six passes defensed. Though he didn’t record a sack last season, he was credited with 10 quarterback hits, the most of any inside linebacker. Hunter Hillenmeyer fills out the best 4-3 group in the NFL, though Briggs’ situation and uncertainty about the front four could see Chicago’s linebackers give way to …
4. Seattle Seahawks (4)
This was a formidable group on paper after the acquisition of Julian Peterson, but schematic issues and one key injury conspired to provide less than optimal results. Peterson put up a career year in the sack department with 10, but his versatility was the real worth behind the seven-year, $54 million contract Seattle gave him before the 2006 season. Lining him up as a rush end, as the Seahawks did frequently to start the season, overemphasized one aspect of his talent. As the season progressed and the fit began to happen, Peterson’s ability to drop into coverage became a factor. This also helped Leroy Hill, who was negatively affected by Peterson’s initial focus on quarterback pressure. In his 2005 rookie season, Hill posted 7.5 sacks and had the highest Stop Rate against the run of any Seahawks linebacker. Hill does these things well, but he doesn’t have a reverse gear, and this was made very evident from his rookie season when he found himself routinely embarrassed in coverage. Seattle’s defensive coaching staff promises to allow Hill to be less reactive and more aggressive in his third year.
The injury that affected Seattle’s linebackers actually happened to the front four, when defensive tackle Marcus Tubbs missed 11 games with a knee injury. Nobody was more impacted by this than middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu, an undersized Tasmanian devil who makes the defense go when he can shoot gaps and make plays. With Tubbs gone, Tatupu proved unable to consistently shed blocks at the line. Still, he continued to develop his ability to read opposing offenses as if they were cereal boxes, and he’s surprisingly adept when retreating into deep coverage. He’s also a textbook tackler, but he’ll need Tubbs (or third-round pick Brandon Mebane of Cal) to man the nose and soak up blockers.
5. Dallas Cowboys (5)
The transition at head coach for the Cowboys from Bill Parcells to Wade Phillips means that more aggressive defensive schemes will be in play. Phillips, who served as San Diego’s defensive coordinator during Shawne Merriman’s development, could have another monster on his hands in DeMarcus Ware. In his second NFL season, Ware not only increased his sack total from eight to 11.5, he also blew away all other linebackers with 25 quarterback hurries (New England’s Rosevelt Colvin was second with 20). Joining Ware this season will be first-round pick Anthony Spencer of Purdue, who will bring his disruptive abilities and self-proclaimed “Fro-hawk” to a linebacker unit already stuffed with pass rushers. Spencer is an ideal outside man in a 3-4; he’s aggressive and on point, racking up 10½ sacks and 26½ tackles for loss in his senior year alone. Optimally, Spencer could play Shaun Phillips to Ware’s Merriman, though those comparisons are a reach at this point.
Ten-year veteran Greg Ellis manned the strong side last year, but concerns about his recovery from a torn Achilles, and past struggles with his role, could have Spencer in the mix sooner than later. On the inside, fellow Purdue alum Akin Ayodele has a knack for being in the right place at the right time, ranking eighth in Stop Rate against the run and 19th in Success Rate against the pass. With Bradie James, Bobby Carpenter and Kevin Burnett available for different personnel packages, the Cowboys match their enviable frontline talent with impressive depth. Whatever the doubts about his ability to maintain overall discipline with a mercurial roster, Phillips’ influence could put this bunch of linebackers over the top.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (1)
We ranked Pittsburgh’s linebackers number one last year for good reason — it could be argued that the Steelers went through the NFL’s four best offensive lines in the postseason on the way to their fifth Super Bowl title. The changes came quickly after the team’s disappointing follow-up year, starting with the hire of new head coach Mike Tomlin. Though Tomlin has a graduate degree in Tampa-2, he’ll defer to Dick LeBeau’s 3-4 professorship.
Joey Porter took $20 million in guaranteed money from the Miami Dolphins; now the Steelers will find out whether Porter was the defense’s soul, or just its mouth. Replacing him at right outside linebacker is James Harrison. Harrison has spent most of his time as a backup, though he did enjoy cups of coffee as a starter in 2004 and 2005. He may be good enough against the run and rushing the passer that there won’t be a decline, though Porter was one of the better linebackers against the pass last season. Looking to the future, the Steelers can turn rookies Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley loose on enemy quarterbacks. Timmons, Pittsburgh’s first-round draft pick, seems a natural for his new team — he won Florida State’s “Hines-man Award” for best overall performance.
Opposite Harrison will be Clark Haggans, a savvy and reliable veteran. James Farrior and Larry Foote have been the primary inside men for the last three seasons. Farrior’s 27 Defeats led the team, and Foote ranked 11th in the league with a 75 percent Stop Rate against the run. The concern here is that overall depth could be an issue with two rookies to rely on.
7. Oakland Raiders (26)
Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan put together one of the most remarkable coaching jobs in recent memory; the Raiders defense ranked ninth in our DVOA stats even though the offense was pathetic. This defense faced the fewest pass attempts (410) and most rushing attempts (542) in the league. That may make an offensive strategy easier to discern, but the mental wear of playing at that level with nonexistent hope on the other side of the ball must be astonishing.
Middle linebacker Kirk Morrison is the star of this unit, an oft-ignored product of the same 2005 draft that produced Merriman and Tatupu. He ranked sixth with a 67 percent Success Rate against the pass, the highest among inside linebackers. His 33 Defeats tied him for third with Brian Urlacher and Cato June. Rookie Thomas Howard impressed on the weak side, though his run-stopping skills need to improve. Sam Williams and Robert Thomas alternated on the strong side, with Thomas proving to be the better player. Morrison and Howard have a world of talent, excellent coaching and an extremely solid group around them. If they had an offense that wasn’t reminiscent of the 1927 Dayton Triangles (link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/day1927.htm), there might be some relief in store.
8. Miami Dolphins (9)
Zach Thomas led the NFL with 174 plays, and had a Stop Rate of 61 percent, one of the best percentages for any inside linebacker whose responsibilities comprised more than just staying at home in a 3-4. Add in nine passes defensed and three sacks and you have an amazing season from a 33-year old who didn’t fade out no matter how often he was targeted.
To complement Thomas’ abilities, the Dolphins threw a great deal of money at Joey Porter. Porter will try to put a somewhat disappointing 2006 behind him, but his seven sacks are still more than the 5.5 that Miami’s entire linebacker corps managed last year. The Dolphins will need continued improvement from strong-side linebacker Channing Crowder. He ranked fifth in Stop Rate against the run, but his Success Rate in pass coverage was just 32 percent, one of the worst of any linebacker.
9. Cleveland Browns (21)
The Browns haven’t posted a winning season since 2002 and suffer from several positional shortfalls, but their linebackers aren’t part of the problem. Cleveland drafted Kamerion Wimbley to get after the quarterback on the weak side, and he did so with abandon, racking up 11 sacks, 16 hits and 19 hurries. On the other side, 14-year veteran Willie McGinest might split time with Antwan Peek this season. Houston’s switch back to a 4-3 left Peek as a man without a position, but he could surprise in Cleveland. On the inside, D’Qwell Jackson and Andra Davis are players who work well in this system and would have much better numbers with better linemen in front of them. Chaun Thompson provides good depth.
10. New England Patriots (13)
The dominant linebacker sets of the recent Super Bowl years are a memory; at this point, Bill Belichick is balancing the value of experience against the effectiveness of pure athleticism. As usual, the Pats come up trumps when presented with such a conundrum. This time, they split the difference between veteran know-how and pure talent by signing free agent Adalius Thomas, formerly of the Ravens. Thomas will be a perfect fit in his new system, because Belichick may have a greater appreciation than any other coach for players who can do many things well. Thomas isn’t just another mid-level “Swiss Army Knife” guy, either. He managed to stand out in Baltimore’s ridiculous 2006 group, and fared better than any teammate when considering all aspects of linebacker play. Thomas’ prominence will increase in New England, because the talent around him is starting to fade a bit.
The names you know — Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau (post-temporary retirement version) — are still here, but there will have to be a serious re-set sooner than later. The Patriots finished eighth in Defensive DVOA last season, but remember what we’ve said about dominant front lines skewing linebacker performance. New England’s improved ranking here is almost all about the new guy. Bruschi and Vrabel are still strong against the run, but suffer in pass coverage. Rosevelt Colvin, the other outside linebacker, is an excellent pass-rusher, with nine sacks, 19 hits and 20 hurries.
Due to a lack of depth, The Patriots can’t be ranked higher. Larry Izzo is mostly a special-teamer, and Eric Alexander’s first start in his three-year NFL career (a good portion of which has been spent on the practice squad) was in the 2006 AFC Championship Game. Dallas Clark has your learning curve right here, Eric.
These comparisons are a little strained given the different ways NFL teams use linebackers. Certainly, it’s easier for linebackers to dominate in a 3-4 than a 4-3, where the main rush comes from defensive ends. Still, if the Cowboys can live up to this #5 ranking, they should be much improved over last year.
Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders ranks the NFL receiving units from 1-32 including, rightly I think, tight ends. Here’s the top 10:
1. Dallas (1)
After six weeks of Drew Bledsoe, the Cowboys’ receivers were struggling. While Terry Glenn had a very respectable 16.8 percent DVOA, Terrell Owens was at a woeful -7.7 percent, and Patrick Crayton (the likely third or fourth target on most plays) had only been thrown 12 passes in six weeks because Bledsoe couldn’t stay upright long enough to find him. Even Jason Witten’s 17.0 percent DVOA had him at a mediocre 13th amongst tight ends.
By the end of the year, Glenn’s DVOA had improved to 20.4 percent, while Owens got all the way up to 12.2 percent. Crayton got 36 more attempts in the final 10 games and was the best third receiver in football. Witten’s DVOA went up to 19.1 percent, seventh amongst all tight ends. The point: Having an even competent quarterback can be the difference between a group of receivers struggling, or being amongst the league’s elite. While Owens and Glenn are getting up there in age, both have yet to show an appreciable level of decline in their metrics, and Owens will likely see an improved catch rate after healing his finger injury. Crayton remains one of the unsung threats in the league, and Witten, the best tight end in a division full of them. A team’s top four receivers will see 65-70 percent of all the throws made by a quarterback over the course of a season; one through four, no one’s better than the Cowboys.
2. Indianapolis (3)
On one hand, it would be incredibly interesting to see what would happen if Marvin Harrison ended up playing with Charlie Frye, or someone of that ilk. How much of his performance would he lose? On the other hand, breaking up Manning and Harrison just seems wrong, like sticking Tennille with Tom Jones, Chuck D with Prince Markie D.
What makes Indianapolis so dangerous, though, is their depth. In Harrison and Reggie Wayne (No. 1 and No. 2 in wide receiver DPAR last season), they have a one-two punch to match any in football; when you add Dallas Clark to the equation, you may have the three best pure receivers in the game. What makes this team even scarier in 2007 is the addition of Anthony Gonzalez in the first round; while it’s impossible to forecast certain success for the young man, take a gander at the other skill-position players the Colts have used first-round picks on under Bill Polian: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne. These guys could make Jim Sorgi look good. While Gonzalez will undoubtedly struggle some with the complex Colts playbook, his 3.6 GPA while at Ohio State offers some encouragement that he might be a quick study.
3. Cincinnati (4)
As good as Indianapolis’ starting wide receivers were, Cincinnati’s star combo of Chad Johnson (5th in DPAR) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (4th) were right behind them. In fact, it’s easy to construct a pretty convincing argument that by the time Carson Palmer had come all the way back from his knee injury, the combination were approaching the performance of Wayne and Harrison. Before the Bengals bye in Week 5, the Colts’ duo were averaging 5.5 DPAR per game combined, while the Bengals’ top two had a measly 2.3 DPAR per game between them. Over the rest of the year, while the Colts’ stars kept their numbers up at 5.69 DPAR per game, the Bengals got up to 4.46 DPAR per game; still not at the Colts’ level, but approaching it.
What separates the Colts’ offense from the Bengals, though, is depth. The Bengals offense does not enjoy a threat at tight end the level of Dallas Clark, although Reggie Kelly has proven to be an effective receiver (17.8 percent DVOA in 2006) when used. While Chris Henry was an excellent third wide receiver, a full season of Anthony Gonzalez will be better than the maximum eight games Henry will be allowed to suit up for in 2007. While they’re not the Colts’ set of receivers — very few teams in NFL history have been — Johnson and Houshmandzadeh are an elite duo, and they are likely to continue to be for at least two more seasons.
4. Baltimore (18)
A great group of receivers hidden by a quarterback losing his arm strength and pocket dexterity. While neither Derrick Mason nor Mark Clayton had spectacular statistics last season, the offensive scheme they played in, and Steve McNair’s quickness to check down caused some deflation in their numbers as opposed to their actual talent level. Mason remains one of the more reliable No. 1 receivers in football, a steady target who runs excellent routes and frees up space underneath while being double-covered. Clayton, on the other hand, is a star waiting to happen, a deep threat in the vein of Chicago’s Bernard Berrian with an upside not dissimilar to Carolina’s Steve Smith. He gained confidence as the year went along, and by the time the playoffs rolled around, was receiver No. 1A. He may have as good a chance to enjoy a breakout 2007 as anyone in pro football.
While third wideout Demetrius Williams is a step down from those two, he was a serviceable deep threat in his first season of playing time on offense, and is likely to see more action out of the slot as the Ravens open up their offense some in 2007. The real third option, though, is tight end Todd Heap, who’s ready to assume the mantle of best non-Gates tight end in football from Tony Gonzalez as he enters his peak and Gonzalez leaves his. Heap remains an excellent end zone option and requires safeties to help out on him, creating space for Clayton behind them.
The Football Outsiders say Anquan Boldin hasn’t been as great as his numbers would suggest in Arizona. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)
5. Arizona (6)
Oh, if they only had a tight end. Last year, we panned former first-round pick and Cardinals’ third receiver Bryant Johnson as a bust, and the player holding the Cardinals’ wideouts back; Johnson responded with an excellent campaign, ranking 13th in DVOA and 27th in DPAR despite not being a starter. This year, we turn our scornful gaze, surprisingly, toward Anquan Boldin; while he’s been a workhorse at wide receiver (his 18.8 points of DPAR were 21st in the league last year), he’s yet to post a DVOA above 5 percent in his career, which points somewhat to the source of his success being a significant level of usage as opposed to spectacular performance. Expect that to improve some as the Cardinals’ offensive line does. The scary thing is that this threesome is already among the top two or three in football on their own merits, and they’re just now getting a good quarterback and slowly developing an offensive line. Oh, and they haven’t even hit their peak yet.
6. Denver (14)
It’s not often that a team’s Hall of Fame receiver suffers a steep decline and yet the receiving corps gets better, but that’s exactly what’s happened in Denver. Despite the controversy at quarterback, Javon Walker emerged as roughly the same receiver he was in Green Bay before his 2005 ACL tear; he was eighth in DPAR and 22nd in DVOA in 2004, 16th and 30th, respectively, in 2006. The effects of having to adjust to Jay Cutler’s development and Jake Plummer’s regression peg those as sufficiently similar performances. Of course, to speak of regression would require discussing Rod Smith, who absolutely fell off the cliff in 2006, 78th in DPAR and 77th in DVOA; toast got offended when you mistook it for the far-more-burnt Smith. With Smith still struggling to return from hip surgery, Denver will likely give more playing time to free agent Brandon Stokley and promising second-year player Brandon Marshall, who came on at season’s end and looks to be a real player.
The other advantage to Denver’s attack are their tight ends, who may be the deepest group in the game. Former Patriots first-round pick Daniel Graham is primarily known as a mauler, but he’s also a reliable pair of hands and good underneath option; meanwhile, backup Tony Scheffler posted an 8.7 percent DVOA last year, good enough for 14th in the league. He runs deeper routes than Graham, and the two will serve as solid complements to each other. Last year’s starter, Stephen Alexander, will likely remain as a blocker and decoy receiver. All in all, Cutler will be spoiled for choice in his first full season at the helm.
7. New England (10)
Speaking of spoiled for choice, New England had a hole at receiver, and instead of sticking a finger in to plug it, they just threw in the whole hand. Five new receivers come to the Patriots to supplement Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson, but each of them has flaws. Donte’ Stallworth has had one healthy year in five; health is a skill, and it’s the one thing Stallworth lacks that keeps him from being an elite wideout. Randy Moss hasn’t been Randy Moss in three seasons, and for a player who’s 30 and has always relied on his physical skills, it’s unlikely that he’ll return to being Randy Moss as a Patriot.
Randy Moss struggled in Oakland. Will he be able to return to glory in New England? ( Jonathan Ferrey / Getty Images)
Wes Welker is an excellent third receiver and return man, but has very little upside and has likely already peaked. Kelley Washington was squeezed out in Cincinnati because of a loaded wideout group, but he’s also injury-prone and his aptitude for playing special teams (which is what he’ll need to do to grab a roster spot) has been questioned. Finally, Kyle Brady is likely to fulfill most of the blocking requirements Daniel Graham served in previous years, but he’s no threat in the air and the Patriots will need David Thomas to serve as the second tight end in the receiving game. While the Patriots have certainly improved their group of receivers, the improvements might not be as dramatic as first glance would have it.
8. San Diego (5)
This discussion begins with Antonio Gates because the passing attack is all based around him. At this point, Gates is one of the five best free talent acquisitions in NFL history; at 27, and with a body a little bit healthier than most tight ends because of his lack of a college football career, we can even expect that Gates might turn it up another notch as Philip Rivers matures.
Outside of Gates, the Chargers have a group of talented wide receivers with something to prove. Eric Parker is a first-down machine, and one of the most underrated players in football; his DVOA rankings over the last three years are 26th, 3rd, and 7th. While the departed Keenan McCardell had clearly lost a step across from Parker, he was booted from the starting lineup by injury and the emergence of 6-foot-5 Vincent Jackson as a viable starter. Jackson still has a ways to go before he’s of McCardell’s caliber, but he creates dramatic matchup problems for every defensive coordinator the Chargers face: how do you defend against two guys who are 6-foot-4-plus and run like the wind? If Norv Turner actually does finally live up to his offensive guru reputation, it could be a scary time for safeties league-wide. When you throw in first-round selection, and former LSU speed demon Craig Davis, this is another batch of receivers who are already good and will only get better. San Diego suffers from this analysis not including the receiving benefits of LaDainian Tomlinson, but either way, this is a promising group.
9. Seattle (2)
If this list was purely looking at wide receivers, Seattle would be in the top-five. That’s what happens when you have Football Outsiders favorite and emerging star D.J. Hackett pushing his way into a lineup that already features fellow Outsiders poster boy Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson and a now-settled Deion Branch. Hackett’s DVOA answered only to Devery Henderson’s last year, as he caught 67 percent of the passes thrown to him, and averaged nearly 14 yards per completion.
The problem, though, is that the Seahawks have neglected to acquire any tight ends to suit up for them this year; while Marcus Pollard, Will Heller and Bennie Joppru may answer to that title, none of them are players anyone would want to rely on as a championship-caliber tight end. While Engram and Hackett may do the underneath work that tight ends normally do in the West Coast offense, expect Seattle’s blocking effectiveness to decrease.
10. Detroit (27)
Well, they have to be above-average at something. The Lions’ bugaboo became the position they could hang their hat on last year, as Roy Williams’ development within Mike Martz’s pass-happy attack pushed him into the upper-echelon of NFL wide receivers; his 29 DPAR were good for sixth in the league, although at a 14.1 percent DVOA, he was only 21st. Mike Furrey’s conversion to wideout became one of the better stories of that nature in recent memory, as he caught 98 passes and put up a solid DPAR and DVOA. In addition, the selection of Calvin Johnson gives the Lions what appears to be — caution now — a sure thing across from Williams. In addition, tight end Dan Campbell posted a whopping 44.2 percent DVOA on 32 attempts last year, the best for any tight end in football.
The problem is that some of these successes are obviously schematic; Campbell’s never been that level of receiver and isn’t likely to be again, while Furrey’s skills are also overstated by his usage pattern. Even if Johnson’s the real deal, Detroit’s still a step behind the elite receiving corps in football.
Click the link for teams 11-32 and an explanation for all the acronyms.
It’s interesting that they rank the Cowboys #1, given the lack of depth behind their two geriatric starters at wideout. Patrick Crayton is generally underrated, I think, but I never would have guessed he was the best #3 in the game. And the tight end production should increase substantially this year under the new offense.
Of course, there are several other teams in contention for this title and most have more established quarterbacks. If Tony Romo doesn’t return to mid-2006 form, his receivers won’t be the best in the League.
Although there has been no confirmation from New England officials, quarterback Vinny Testaverde said during a national radio appearance Friday that he will sign with the Patriots during training camp, and return to the NFL for a 21st season.
Testaverde, 43, signed a one-year contract with the Patriots last November and played in three games, completing two of three passes for 29 yards, with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has spent this spring and summer as an unrestricted free agent, but took part in the Pats’ passing camps and in the three-day minicamp last month. “After two-a-days are over, I’ll go back and sign my contract,” Testaverde told Sporting News Radio. “I’ll wait until then.”
[...]
The top overall selection in the 1987 draft, by the Tampa Bay Bucs, the much-traveled Testaverde has played with six different franchises during his long career. He has completed 3,693 of 6,259 passes for 45,281 yards, with 270 touchdowns passes and 261 interceptions, for an efficiency rating of 75.2. In stints with Tampa Bay (1987-92), Cleveland (1993-95), Baltimore (1996-97), the New York Jets (1998-2003, 2005), Dallas (2004) and New England (2006), he has compiled six season with 3,000 or more passing yards and four years with 20 or more touchdown passes. His most prolific season was with Baltimore in 1996, when he threw for 4,177 yards and had 33 touchdown passes. Testaverde is No. 6 in NFL history in completions, attempts and passing yards and ranks ninth in touchdown passes.
I can’t think of a quarterback of Testaverde’s caliber who hung around for several years as a backup/journeymen after a lengthy run as a starter. More power to him.
Which NFL teams have the best wide receivers? Scouts, Inc. ranks them 1-32. Here are their top 10:
1. Indianapolis Colts An exceptional group of wide receivers got better with the addition of first-round selection Anthony Gonzalez. Marvin Harrison is still among the best wide receivers in the league and is playing at his typical Hall of Fame level. Although Reggie Wayne certainly benefits from having Harrison on the other side, he just gets better every season and is now a bona fide Pro Bowl pass-catcher. Harrison and Wayne are both tougher than they are given credit for. Former Ohio State star Gonzalez comes from a big-time college program and was productive at the highest level. He is one of the most polished receivers from this year’s draft and should excel with the Colts. This group also benefits from having a pretty darn good quarterback throwing them the football.
2. Arizona Cardinals Matt Leinart has an ultra-talented pair of wideouts at his disposal. Who do you roll the coverage to? Larry Fitzgerald has great size and enough speed to go along with sticky hands, a fantastic body control and rare ball skills. He excels in the red zone, can stretch the field or eat a cornerback alive with his possession routes. Anquan Boldin is probably the No. 2 option in this offense, but he is a true No. 1 on just about any other team in the league. He has great size and physicality. He is tough and makes a lot of big plays after the catch. He isn’t a burner and has slight durability concerns, but he is very productive. These two thrive off each other; few teams in the league have a better situation at wide receiver. What is scary is that this tandem should get better.
3. St. Louis Rams Torry Holt is an absolute superstar and is quite possibly the best wide receiver in the game today. For some reason, this guy simply does not get his due. He is a future Hall of Famer and continues to perform on a very high level. Holt can do it all and makes every member of this offense better. Isaac Bruce obviously is getting up in age and is not the dynamic weapon that he once was, but as No. 2 receivers go around the league, Bruce is still pretty formidable. St. Louis signed Drew Bennett in free agency to replace Kevin Curtis. Bennett will bring a much-needed big body to this group to complement the other wideouts. The No. 2 spot soon will belong to Bennett, and when he teams with Holt and Bruce, the Rams will find matchups to their advantage with regularity.
4. Cincinnati Bengals This is an elite group of wide receivers, but Chris Henry’s eight-game suspension will hurt. Henry has his problems off the field, but when he steps between the lines, he creates mismatches and consistently makes big plays. He is a touchdown machine. Although Henry will be missed, Tab Perry is a player who could blow up in Henry’s absence. Perry is tough as nails, strong and determined with a great blend of size and speed. It can be argued that Chad Johnson is as good as any receiver in the league today, and diagnosing weaknesses in his game is difficult to do. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is an exceptional second option with a high football IQ who consistently exploits single coverage in the short and intermediate areas.
5. Detroit Lions Is it too early to rank the Lions’ wide receivers among the best in the business? Absolutely not. Calvin Johnson is just that good of a prospect. He is a rookie and surely will have some growing pains as all newcomers do, but Johnson is a superstar without physical weaknesses. He will get by on hard work and talent alone this year, and then be among the top players at the position in the next few years. Roy Williams is an out-of-this world athlete who is quickly becoming a complete receiver. Williams is already among the better players at his position and defenses will have a brutal time producing a game plan against this duo. Mike Furrey is solid and should do a great job in the slot and as the No. 3 receiver. QB Jon Kitna is a lucky man.
6. New England Patriots The Pats’ receiving corps would have ranked near the very bottom of this list one year ago, but times have changed. Adding Wes Welker, Donte’ Stallworth and Randy Moss to the group will do that. Say what you want about Moss, but when he turns it on, there is no one like him. Of course, he is a wild card at this point, but we have a hunch that Tom Brady might get something out of him. Stallworth will benefit a great deal from all the attention that Moss will garner. Both players are exceptional deep threats and this group is just dripping with big-play potential. Welker is quick and reliable out of the slot. He should fit in very well. Last year’s top receiver, Reche Caldwell, will allow the Patriots to exploit secondaries with an outstanding four-receiver set. This group is outstanding on paper, but needs to prove that it is worth our lofty ranking.
7. Denver Broncos There is a noticeable drop-off after the top six receiver groups. Rod Smith has been a rock of consistency for Mike Shanahan over the past decade or so, but the veteran is beginning to show signs of slipping. Jay Cutler still will look his way when the chips are down, but Brandon Marshall should surpass Smith as the starter opposite Javon Walker. Marshall is a budding star with great tools. He will see a lot of single coverage next year and could make himself a household name in this offense. Walker is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver who possesses an outstanding combination of size, explosiveness and deep speed. Expect an even better season from Walker in 2007 now that he is a year removed from his knee injury.
8. Dallas Cowboys Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are an aging starting duo, but they remain very formidable. For all the drama that Owens brings off the field, he is still a game-changing presence on Sundays. He dropped a lot of passes last year — many of which would have gone for big plays and touchdowns — but he played through a serious hand injury, which obviously hindered his ability to catch the ball cleanly. Owens has lost half a step, but is still a very good wideout who scores touchdowns in bunches and is a tough matchup for any cornerback. Glenn is a dynamic second receiver who still can stretch a defense or torture his opponents with crisp, short and intermediate routes. Patrick Crayton is tough and competitive, but overall, the Cowboys are lacking depth behind their veteran starters.
9. Baltimore Ravens Although Derrick Mason is on the decline, fellow wideouts Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams are gaining steam and progressing very well in their young careers. Williams is one of the best young wide receivers who you have probably never heard of. He is a tall, angular guy who can stretch the field. Williams is going to be a good one. Clayton is a very mature player for such a young guy and has ascended rapidly. He isn’t particularly big or physical, but he is extremely quick and makes a lot happen after the catch. Although Mason isn’t what he once was and rarely scores, he is still a decent starting option who knows the tricks of his trade. It should be noted that this threesome also benefits a great deal from the presence that TE Todd Heap provides in the middle of the field.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers Hines Ward has been nicked up a bit over the last two seasons, and with his physical style of play and age, he needs to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season. That being said, Ward is still a very good player who brings toughness, leadership and attitude to the Steelers’ offense. He exploits single coverage and has performed well even when the opposition rolls its coverage in his direction. Last year’s first-rounder, Santonio Holmes, experienced some usual bumps in the road during his rookie season, but he finished the season very strong and has the looks of an explosive playmaker. Holmes should have a big year. Behind the starters, Pittsburgh’s receiving corps is very average and the Steelers need someone to step up as the No. 3 guy.
I hate when they try to factor rookies into this because there’s really no way of knowing how they’ll perform. And, frankly, there’s always the issue of quarterbacks, offensive lines, schemes, and so forth.
It’s hard to think that there are seven teams better than the Cowboys, who bring Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn to the table and complement them with Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten. That duo isn’t getting any younger, though, and the youngsters behind them are unproven. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Cowboys wind up performing well above this ranking but it strikes me as perfectly fair going into the season.
It looks as if other’s are just as anxious for this coming season as I am. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Anyway, Mr Dumas over at 411mania, put out his version of NFL Power Rankings.
Here is his Top 10.
1. Indianapolis Colts-Defending Super Bowl Champs, ‘nuff said.
2. New England Patriots- Made it to the AFC title game last year and added some key players. Randy Moss was a good move but adding the do-it-all defenseman Adalius Thomas is where the Pats will get the most bang for their buck.
3. Baltimore Ravens- Losing the aforementioned Thomas hurts, but defense is still the premier unit in the NFL. Adding Willis McGahee will take pressure off their aging QB Steve McNair. Look for this team to give the Pats and Colts all they can handle in the chase for the Lamar Hunt trophy.
4. Chicago Bears- Defending NFC Champs. Assuming LB Lance Briggs plays, DT Tommie Harris stays healthy, and QB Rex Grossman learned from last season’s rollercoaster ride, this team will once again represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
5. San Diego Chargers- Best RB in the NFL—check. Best TE in the NFL—check. Young, efficient QB—check. Starting the season against the Bears and Patriots might have them off to a slow start, though. If new coach Norv Turner doesn’t screw things up and somehow gets the secondary to make some plays, the Chargers will be right back in the thick of things.
6. New Orleans Saints- QB Drew Brees is a proven passer (4,418 yds, 26 tds in ’06) and RB/WR/KR/PR Reggie Bush showed flashes of what he’s capable of doing in the near future. If defense can continue it’s better than average play (13th in points allowed per game), this team has a shot at revenge against the Bears.
7. Denver Broncos- It was the best offseason, it was the worst offseason. Worst because the team saw two players meet untimely deaths (CB Darrent Williams and RB Damien Nash), the best because they cleaned up in the free agent market. CB Dre’ Bly, RB Travis Henry and TE Daniel Graham will all contribute. Former Florida pass rusher Jarvis Moss will help immediately. Inexperienced QB Jay Cutler only question mark.
8. Philadelphia Eagles- QB Donovan McNabb was on his way to an MVP season before he got hurt. He’ll be healthy and playing with a chip on his shoulder. RB Brian Westbrook will have another superb year and the defense might surprise people with the addition of LB Takeo Spikes. This team will be in the playoffs.
9. Dallas Cowboys- Squeaked into the playoffs in ’06 but ’07 depends on QB Tony Romo. He plays well, this team goes far. He doesn’t, they don’t. RB tandem Marion Barber and Julius Jones will be tough to stop and defensive-minded new head coach Wade Phillips will use his talented personnel wisely.
10. Cincinnati Bengals- QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Johnson are the best big-play duo in the NFL. Off-the-field issues ruined everyone’s Super Bowl pick last year but look for the opportunistic defense to put Palmer and Co. in position to put up some serious points in ’07.
I can’t say I agree with the placement of the Denver Broncos. I don’t think they should be any lower than 4, and certainly not behind any NFC team. Denver has had some very key additions this off-season. The gaps in last years team seem to have been filled. With such players as Dre Bly, Travis Henry, Daniel Graham, Sam Adams, Jimmy Kennedy, Brandon Stokley, among others. NFL.com has a good list of the additions and subtractions.
