Red Sox, J.D. Drew Agree, At Last

After many delays and much revision, the Boston Red Sox and J.D. Drew have finally agreed to the five year contract. The Red Sox have an out clause in case Drew’s shoulder does not allow him to play consistently in either year three or year four of the deal. Gordon Edes at the Boston Globe

[S]ources with direct knowledge of the negotiations said all parties have signed off on an agreement that allows the Sox to achieve their goal of making Drew their right fielder and No. 5 hitter, while giving the team the right to void either of the last two years of the deal, or both, should Drew’s right shoulder render him unable to play.

Drew is not expected to be in Boston for today’s announcement.

Under the terms of the contract, if Drew goes on the disabled list in his third year for issues related to the shoulder for a proscribed length of time, the Sox have the option to void the final two years. If he winds up on the disabled list in his fourth year, the Sox have the option of voiding the final year.

The Red Sox have long coveted the offensive machine that is J.D. Drew. Unfortunately, Drew has been snakebitten by repeated injuries, some as the results of pitched balls, but just as often, minor twinges have hampered him. He has, however, played at least 145 games in two of the last three seasons. His MVP-like campaign in 2004 for the Braves was the best of his career, as he posted .305/.436/569 with 31 homeruns. The Red Sox are hoping for that kind of performance hitting behind Manny Ramirez.

Looking at the Red Sox lineup, we see a hitting machine.

SS Julio Lugo
1B Kevin Youkilis
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF J.D. Drew
3B Mike Lowell
C Jason Varitek
CF Coco Crisp
2B Dustin Pedroia

Fourth outfielder Wily Mo Pena will be underutilized coming off the bench, but barring a trade, there is no starting role for him. I did a brief and largely unscientific study of Pena early last season, before injuries landed him on the disabled list. Pena played significantly better in a regular, defined starting role. Pena hit considerably worse when he started irregularly, compared to when he played several days in a row. The sample size was limited, so the data support no conclusions. But it bears watching, can Wily Mo Pena produce playing three or four times a week? Eric Hinske will also be available for corner outfield duty as well as corner infield duty and Alex Cora comes back to back up the middle infielders. Doug Mirabelli will be caddying for Tim Wakefield, unless prospect George Kottaras earns the backup job in spring training. The Red Sox bench is competent.

What dazzles is the awfully pricey starting rotation

Curt Schilling
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Josh Beckett
Tim Wakefield
Jonathan Papelbon

Julian Tavarez and Kyle Snyder can act as swingmen in case any starter needs to miss a start or two. And Jon Lester, who battled non-Hodgkins Lymphoma in the offseason, will be getting back up to speed likely in Pawtucket, the Red Sox AAA affiliate. In addition to Tavarez and Snyder, the Red Sox have Joel Pinheiro, Mike Timlin, Brendan Donnelly, JC Romero and Hideki Okajima in the pen. That’s a complete pitching heavy roster. The Red Sox might try to sneak Kyle Snyder through waivers and stash him at Pawtucket in favor of carrying an additional hitter like Kerry Robinson or Alex Ochoa, who were signed to minor league contracts. The uncertainty at closer looms, but on paper that’s a solid team. In the wings is the possible return of Roger Clemens, who will decide between the Red Sox, Yankees and the Astros where he will play part of the 2007 season.

Will it be enough to overtake the Yankees? Only the games will tell. Outside the Beltway Sports will look at the Yankees next.

Mariner’s Major Concern: Keep Ichiro

The sparkplug atop the Seattle Mariner’s lineup has been constant for six years. And if Bill Bavasi has anything to say about it, Ichiro Suzuki is not going anywhere. But the problem of signing him isn’t going anywhere either. At least not yet.

The six-time All-Star will make $11 million in the final season of a $44 million, four-year deal. A six-time Gold Glove outfielder, Suzuki is eligible to become a free agent after the World Series.

Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi would like to work out an extension with Suzuki’s agent, Tony Attanasio. Just not necessarily tomorrow. Or even before the season begins April 2.

“It’s a top priority,” Bavasi said Wednesday. “But the timing is not that important. Whatever he and Tony are comfortable with. And whatever our ownership is comfortable with.”

So the potentially difficult negotiations could drag through the summer.

Ichiro Suzuki has been a marvel in Seattle. His ability to get on base via the base hit, without a corresponding ability to draw walks, is otherworldly. In his six seasons he has posted a line of .331/.376/.438. Sabermetricians are fond of Isolated Discipline (IsoD) a statistic that qualifies a high OBP, like Ichiro’s, that is overly dependent on batting average. Suzuki’s is very low. In comparison, Adam Dunn, who has also been in the majors for six years (though his rookie year was a half season), has a line of .245/.380/.513, and an IsoD three times as good as Ichiro’s. Does that make Dunn a better player? Absolutely not, but it does illustrate the vast differences between the skillsets of a slugger like Dunn who draws a lot of walks and a speedy hacker like Suzuki, who makes contact like its nobody’s business.

Nicely, players tend to develop better plate discipline as their athletic skills begin to deteriorate. And for Suzuki, that time may be drawing near. This season is his Age 33 season. Ichiro’s comparables include players like Ralph Garr, Bake McBride and Ron LaFlore whose major league playing days were over by 35. Also on the list are Kenny Lofton and Ken Griffey Sr., who had long careers (Lofton is still going).

The question for Bavasi to answer is will Ichiro be able to adapt to slower wheels and beating out fewer groundballs. In that sense, seeing what he is capable of this season, as he switches to centerfield, is the wise play. As key as it is to sign Ichiro, it is necessary for a Seattle team saddled with onerous contracts to both Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson to spend their money wisely.

The Mariners meanwhile continue to progress towards mediocrity. Despite Mike Hargrove’s recent comments that the goal of the Mariners is to win the AL West (it should be) the talent just isn’t there to win a division with the likes of Oakland and their young talented pitchers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Mariners will be lucky to sneak into second. The Mariners are not terrible, by any stretch. But the bad deals they signed Sexson and Beltre to crippled their ability to improve holes in their rotation. Instead they have a 21-year old third year player at the front of the rotation and a close who fell into the job when another bad signing flamed out last April.

The Mariner’s have not sniffed the postseason since Ichiro’s rookie season. They improved a little last season, but the nine game improvement wasn’t enough to rescue them from the cellar. They don’t score runs consistently, and they will not have Gil Meche who was effective and hometown favorite Jamie Moyer who was as good in Seattle as he was bad on the road.

Harkening back to a previous post, a worst to first season is unrealistic, without a organizational development plan. The Mariner’s really don’t seem to have one. Their lineup is okay, but it is heavy on players who lack discipline. Middle infielders Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt played well and are young, but they need to improve their batting eye. Sexson and Beltre need to live up to their contracts and the Jeremy Reed experience is coming to an end. Youngsters like Brandon Morrow, Ryan Feierabend Mark Lowe and Chris Tillman need to be given a chance to develop. Former Mariners Gil Meche, Joel Pinheiro and Rafael Soriano, as well as King Felix, all were rushed to the major leagues and suffered as a result of it. For Hernandez, the question is whether his arm can develop properly in the crucible of a major league season. So far so good, but with someone as young as he is, anything can go wrong.

With a mandate from CEO Howard Lincoln that a dramatic improvement is needed, Bavasi and Hargrove may be the two most likely candidates to get axed after a slow start. Times are not nice in Seattle.

Let the Hype Begin

The battle of the black shoes will be joined in Miami Sunday, February 4th, 2007. Super Bowl XLI pits the high powered offense of the Indianapolis Colts (Congrats Peyton, Tony and company) versus the stifling defense of the Chicago Bears. Your humbled correspondent couldn’t have picked it worse. Let’s look at each game.

First in the NFC Championship

In order, Lovie Smith last week listed the goals he had for the Bears when he was hired three years ago.

Beat Green Bay. Win the NFC North. Deliver a Super Bowl championship to the NFL’s cornerstone franchise.

He beat the Packers in his first try and is 4-2 against them. He won the division each of the last two seasons. And now he and the Bears are headed to Miami for the Super Bowl, where they will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Feb. 4 to try to complete the trifecta.

Smith’s defense suffocated the New Orleans Saints’ high-octane offense Sunday, and with snow falling in the second half at raucous Soldier Field — reminiscent of the last time the Bears won the NFC title — this group made history. In throttling the Saints 39-14, the Bears were nearly flawless. They had no turnovers, one meaningless penalty for five yards and four takeaways.

The snow mixed with raining confetti as Tony Dorsett presented team matriarch Virginia McCaskey with the George Halas Trophy — the prize named after her father. The low-profile owner, 83, left the field with family after the celebration but was prodded by a daughter to comment.

”I’m speechless,” she said. ”It’s just lovely. Lovie always says it’s never in doubt, so here we are.”

Smith and Colts coach Tony Dungy become the first black head coaches to lead teams to the Super Bowl.

Pay close attention to that theme. It will be profoundly important this week. Various pundits and so-called experts on sports will discuss how important it is that the NFL’s diversity measures have had such an excellent impact. They are wrong. Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy will be coaching their teams in the Super Bowl not because the NFL’s policy of mandatory minority interviews for head coaching positions. They are they because they are damn fine coaches. Lovie Smith turned around a Bears squad that had languished at the bottom of the NFC North. Dungy proved his mettle in Tampa Bay, building a championship caliber team, and in guiding the Colts to one Divisional Title after another. To say either has gotten here because of a quota policy does these men a great disservice.Speaking of Dungy

Twenty-three years after the Mayflower moving vans delivered the Baltimore Colts to Indianapolis, the Colts have delivered a Super Bowl to a championship-starved city. Indianapolis hasn’t celebrated a major professional title since the Indiana Pacers won an ABA banner in 1973.

The Colts will meet the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI on Feb. 4 in Dolphin Stadium in Miami. It will be a showdown between old friends and the first two black head coaches to take teams to the Super Bowl.

Lovie Smith, whose Bears beat New Orleans 39-14 earlier Sunday, served as an assistant coach under Dungy from 1996 through 2000 at Tampa Bay.

That can wait. The Colts and their leather-lunged crowd had reason to party Sunday. They slew the dragon, vanquished the ghosts, exorcised the demons of playoffs past. The proud Patriots have won the Super Bowl three of the past five years. They twice dismissed the Colts along the way: in the 2003 AFC Championship Game and in a 2004 divisional game.

It is tough for the NFL to have a better matchup. One unstoppable offense. One dominating defense. Two storied franchises, though one in a different city than where it compiled its storied past. In addition, Patriot fatigue, palpable in much of the world, apart from Patriot Nation, was beginning to show. (How’s that for a silver lining?) It is good to have two teams who have not been to the Super Bowl for awhile in the big game. And while Patriot fans, like yours truly, have whacked Peyton like a Pinata, he earned last night’s victory. He led his team when it counted, late in the game. And in a drive eerily reminiscent of Tom Brady’s finest moments, he won the game. He deserves the accolades he will get this and next week.

Two cities are filled with joy today, basking in the afterglow of what fans hope is just the appetizer. The main course will be served up in two weeks. May the best team win.

Conference Championship Back Stories

At this point in the playoffs there are some interesting subplots to look at.

There’s not much history between Chicago and New Orleans at this level. (While Mike Tanier agrees that the Saints are the better story, he thinks that the Bears are the better team and will win.) However New England and Indianapolis have plenty of history between them in the past six seasons. Mike Tanier writes:

The lessons of history: Ancient scrolls tell us that Peyton Manning first faced a Bill Belichick-coached Patriots team in Week 6 of the 2000 season. Manning threw for 334 yards but was picked off three times, and the Patriots won 24-16. Two weeks later, the Patriots traveled to Indianapolis, and Manning threw three touchdowns in a 30-23 Colts win. At the time, any suggestion that Belichick or the Patriots “owned” the Colts would have been scoffed at. Then again, any suggestion that the 5-11 Patriots were a year away from the Super Bowl would also have been suitable for scoffing.

During that first Super Bowl run in 2001, the Patriots acquired their reputation as Manning killers. The Patriots swept the Colts and forced another three-interception effort from the normally unflappable Manning in one of the games. In 2002, the Colts moved out of the AFC East, but the two teams would find their destinies French-braided together in 2003. In Week 13 of that season, the Patriots out-dueled the Colts 38-34 in a game that ended with a goal-line tackle of Edgerrin James by Willie McGinest. When they met again in the AFC championship in New England, the contest wasn’t nearly as close: the Patriots built a 15-0 halftime lead and then coasted to a 24-14 win. Manning threw four picks and was sacked four times. The 2004 season brought another Patriots-Colts playoff battle, once again on an icy day in Foxboro. Manning had another substandard outing, and the Patriots won 20-3 en route to a third Super Bowl title.

But this isn’t just about how the two teams have played against one another. It’s also about Adam Vinatieri who left the Patriots as a free agent to play for the Colts. In his first decade as a pro, Vinatieri was an essential part of the Patriots’ dynasty. This is from his Wikipedia entry:

In the 2001 playoffs, during a blizzard against the Oakland Raiders in the final game at Foxboro Stadium, Vinatieri kicked a 45-yard field goal to tie the game 13-13 and send it into overtime. The Patriots then won the game on another field goal of 23 yards by Vinatieri. That 45-yard kick in driving snow is regarded as one of the greatest clutch plays (and greatest kicks) in NFL history.

In Super Bowl XXXVI he kicked a 48-yard field goal on the final play to give the New England Patriots their first Super Bowl victory, a 20-17 win over the St. Louis Rams. Two years later, and in an almost identical situation, he kicked a 41-yard field goal with 4 seconds left in Super Bowl XXXVIII to boost the Patriots to another championship (after missing one field goal and having another attempt blocked in the first half). This time, the Patriots defeated the Carolina Panthers, 32-29, making Vinatieri the first player ever to be the deciding factor in two Super Bowl games (Vinatieri kept the balls used on both those kicks).

While Vinatieri was instrumental in defeating the Ravens this past week, he didn’t decide a game with little time left. Will he defeat his old team this week? And if he does will it be as time runs out?

There are two compelling storylines remaining for the Super Bowl.
If the Colts and Saints play each other it will be the team whose greatest quarterback was Archie Manning playing against the team (meaning the IndianapolisJ) Colts whose greatest quarterback is his son Peyton. Archie Manning – a member of the College Football Hall of Fame – owns just about every passing record of the New Orleans Saints. His son Peyton is, arguably, the best player ever to play professional football in Indianapolis.

There’s one other interesting story here. As coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tony Dungy led that beleaguered franchise to some sustained success. For his inability to get them to the Super Bowl, though, he was fired and replaced by Jon Gruden. The Bucs won the Super Bowl the following year against (Gruden’s old team) the Raiders. That must have stung. Getting to the Super Bowl would be vindication for Dungy. The Bucs won the Super Bowl but subsequently haven’t been as good as the Colts.

The other interesting storyline for the Super Bowl would be a rematch of the Bears and Patriots from Super Bowl XX in 1986. That victory came at a time of Super Bowl dominance by the NFC in which that conference won 15 out of 16 Super Bowls. The dominance has shifted as the AFC has now won 7 out of the last 9 Super Bowls. If the Bears of Mike Ditka, Buddy Ryan, Jim McMahon, Walter Perry, Richard Dent and Walter Payton were prohibitive favorites 21 years ago; I’d have to think that the Bill Bellichik/Tom Brady Patriots of today would be as much of a lock this year.
The Bears – despite their dominance that year – haven’t returned to the Super Bowl since then. The Patriots are now hoping to return to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in eleven years.

UPDATE: EnnuiPundit previews the AFC and the NFC.

Crossposted at Soccer Dad.

Patriots-Colts Again

Championship Sunday concludes with the much heralded and over-hyped New England-Indianapolis rematch. This game features all the elements you love to hate. Two successful talented quarterbacks. High-powered offense vs. stifling defense. And a chess match between a likable coach who gets to the big game but hasn’t yet won one and his less likable, but more successful counterpart. You’ve seen this game before my friends, but we don’t know how it will end.

QUARTERBACK
Peyton Manning	Advantage Pats	Tom Brady

Peyton Manning is great. Don’t get me wrong. He is. But until he wins the whole thing, his reputation for being a regular season record setter and a playoff choke artist will never go away. The Peyton Manning face is the stuff of legend in New England. Pats fans love seeing the petulant sulking on the sidelines as the Patriot offense moves the ball. Brady meanwhile is the best playoff quarterback in the NFL right now. He was not great in San Diego. he was good enough to win. Neither Manning nor Brady have shown their customary brilliance in this year’s postseason. But when asked, I’ll take Brady, every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

RUNNINGBACKS
Joseph Addai Dominic Rhodes	Advantage Pats	Corey Dillon Laurence Maroney Kevin Faulk Heath Evans

Addai and Rhodes have been a formidable two back combo on a team that doesn’t do a lot of running. The Patriots ran the ball 60 more times than the Colts 499 -439 int he regular season. Dillon and Maroney however are a slightly better combo, and the Patriots also have Kevin Faulk who is an excellent weapon out of the backfield catching passes as well as a third down option for New England. They are fairly evenly matched, but the advantage goes to New England.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Marvin Harrison Reggie Wayne	Advantage Colts	Reche Caldwell Troy Brown Jabar Gaffney

New England’s ragtag receiver corps pales in comparison to the tandem of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Reche Caldwell Troy Brown and Jabar Gaffney have done a good job in the fire of an NFL season, but they are nowhere near as good as the two primary weapons that Peyton Manning found 181 times for 2,676 yards of offense and 21 scores. The numbers are gaudy. The three listed Patriot receivers combined for 9 touchdowns, for example. And this is the biggest edge the Colts have. One positive for the Patriots, Jabar Gaffney has more catches and yards in the postseason than in the regular season with back to back 100 yard games.

TIGHT ENDS
Dallas Clark Ben Utecht	Advantage Colts	Ben Watson Daniel Graham David Thomas

Ben Watson was one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets, but he hasn’t shown much since getting hurt in Week 14. He has caught five balls for 33 yards. But neither game featured tight end play on New England’s part. The Kansas City game showed how well Indy integrates their tight ends into their offensive game plan. Clark had 9 catches for 103 yards, as Manning found him again and again.

DEFENSE
Dwight Freeney Cato June Antoine Bethea	Advantage Pats	Richard Seymour Tedy Bruschi Asante Samuel

Freeney and Robert Mathis anchor a strong front four and Cato June is always busy on the weakside. Antoine Bethea and Nick Harper key the secondary that was second best in the NFL at shutting down the pass. But as with past Colt defenses, this one is built for speed and not for brawn. Freeney and Mathis spend lots of time in opposing teams backfields, but that didn’t mean anything towards slowing down the opposing teams running game. The Patriots defense was the second toughest to score on in the league. They also stuffed the run exceptionally well. The biggest question is whether Manning nemesis Rodney Harrison plays. He is listed as doubtful. I would not be surprised if Harrison sees half of the defensive snaps and a majority of third and longs.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Adam Vinatieri Hunter Smith Terence Wilkins	Advantage Colts	Stephen Gostkowski Todd Saurbrun Ellis Hobbs

Adam Vinatieri, hero of two Patriot Super Bowl victories, now wears Indy’s Horseshoe on his hat. He’s a key weapon who has accounted for 26 of the Colts 38 total points scored this post season. Hunter Smith has boomed punts all season for the Colts and Terence Wilkins has handled the Kick and Punt return duties. Each has been better than their Patriot counterpart. Rookie Kicker Stephen Gostkowski has not missed a field goal this post season. Todd Sauerbrun is getting the punting job done and if the Patriots used Lawrence Maroney exclusively at returns he would post better numbers than Wilkins, as it is Kevin Faulk and Ellis Hobbs help out on kick and punt returns. The Colts edge here is not all that big, but it is there.

COACHING
Tony Dungy	Advantage Pats	Bill Belichick

These guys have both been in this game against each other. Belichick always seems to game plan better than Dungy in the big games. Dungy is a good coach. Belichick is the best of the this decade. Like Manning against Brady, until Dungy beats Belichick in this environment, Belichick holds the advantage.

The Patriots figure to spend more time exploiting the Colts weakness at stopping the run. New England meanwhile stifles opposing rushers. Indianapolis had good success defending the pass, or was it that teams did so well running on Indy that they didn’t throw the ball much? New England’s very good defense against Indy’s excellent offense. It’s the same recipe as it has been. New England game plans better. New England has the swagger, even though the Colts have beaten the Pats in each of the last two meetings. Sunday evening in Indianapolis two rivals meet again to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

New England 24 Indianapolis 9 – Adam Vinateri can’t kick his way past the Pats

NFC Conference Championship Preview

As I will be out of town tomorrow and unable to get to a computer until Monday morning, my pigskin prognosticating comes a day early. Beginning in the National Football Conference, the New Orleans Saints are in their first Conference Championship playing against the Chicago Bears. The Saints had the best offense in terms of gaining yards in the NFL this season. The Bears had one of the top defenses.

QUARTERBACK
Drew Brees	Advantage Saints	Rex Grossman

Much has been made of the erratic play of Rex Grossman. And all of it has been earned. Rex looked lost going deep against the Patriots who just ate his lunch in November in Foxboro. He survived last weekend, an important test after his 0.0 quarterback rating in the regular season finale against Green Bay. Drew Brees on the other hand has been just what the Saints needed, steady, dependable and the architect of the best passing offense in the league. The Saints averaged 281.4 yards in the air as Brees exploited secondary after secondary. He split his catches among his wideouts and his backs, getting 30 or more catches to five different players. Four of them had more than six hundred yards in the air.

RUNNINGBACKS
Deuce McAllister Reggie Bush	Advantage Bears	Thomas Jones Cedric Benson

The Bears powerful two pronged ground game is keyed by veteran Thomas Jones, who recorded another 1000 yard season. His 4.1 yards per carry was equaled by Cedric Benson who got half the carries of Jones. Between them, they accounted for nearly 1900 yards this season. That rumbling noise you hear in Chicago is the Bears marching down the field. The Saitns are not slouches running the ball. Their tandem of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush dashed for almost 1600 yards. They present a good mix of speed and power.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Marques Colston Devery Henderson Joe Horn	Advantage Saints	Mushin Muhammad Bernard Berrian Rashied Davis

The Saints offensive advantage is most pronounced in the receiving corps. Colston and Henderson did not even play in all sixteen games, and were good for a combined 1783 yards through the air. Joe Horn chipped in another 679 yards in only 10 games. The trick for the Saints has been keeping all their wideouts on the field at the same time, which is uncertain with Horn nursing a groin injury that leaves him questionable for the game. He’ll play. On the Bears side, Mushin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian lead the way. Former Arena Football player Rasheid Davis, who caught the key pass last week against Seattle rounds out the receivers.

TIGHT ENDS
Mark Campbell Billy Miller	Advantage Bears	Desmond Clark

This is a definite plus for the Bears. Desmond Clark is the Bears third leading receiver. Campbell and Miller are not featured in the Saints offense to any degree whatsoever. Clark is the short route that Rex Grossman sometimes overlooks.

DEFENSE
Charles Grant Scott Shanle Mike McKenzie	Advantage Bears	Alex Brown Brian Urlacher Charles Tillman

They swarm. They pile on. They gang tackle. The are ball hawks. They love playing defense. They are the Chicago Bears. Monsters of the Midway, maybe not? The Bears defense won’t make anyone forget the 46 Defense of the Super Bowl XX winning Bears. But they effectively kept their opponents out of the end zone weak after week. The Bears earned home field advantage with the best record in the NFC by shutting down teams, not by overpowering them. The Saints defense has been okay. Much like the Colts, they have trouble stopping the run but do quite well shutting down pass plays. Another advantage for Chicago.

SPECIAL TEAMS
John Carney Steve Weatherford Michael Lewis	Advantage Bears	Robbie Gould Brad Maynard Rasheid Davis

Carney continues to hit field goals at a better than 90% clip (23 of 25), but missed one PAT. Robbie Gould, hero of last week, was perfect on PATs, but missed four field goal tries. He did have eleven more attempts than Carney. Brad Maynard handle punting duties for the Bears, doing a great job dropping thirty percent of his kicks inside the twenty. Weatherford was acceptable for the Saints. He did not hit as many punts inside the 20 or the 10 and had more touch backs than Maynard did. The Bears real strength has been in returns. The Bears have brought back 3 kickoffs and 2 punts for touchdowns. Only Reggie Bush has gotten into the End Zone for the Saints on a return.

COACHING
Sean Payton	Even	Lovie Smith

Lovie Smith has wrestled with the most difficult job a coach can have. He has had his most talented quarterback, play foolishly. This has led to a reasonable desire from fans, and probably parts of the locker room as well, to try Brian Griese or Kyle Orton once or twice. His management of that situation could have cost the Bears the Divisional game against the Seahawks. Yes, the Bears got lucky. Sean Payton on the other hand is somewhat of an unknown quantity. The Saints could have put the Eagles away, but they stuck around and kept things a little too interesting. They both have never been to this stage of the game before. So to give an edge to either is unfair. We’ll learn more about who the better coach is by watching them against each other. The jobs they have done in turning around moribund franchise has been noteworthy. But turning a team around and winning a Super Bowl are very different things.

The Saints renaissance has come a year after the disaster in New Orleans. They have played with passion and determination. The Bears need to manage the clock, keep the ball away from the high powered Saints offense and play smart. They quarterback is underwhelming and probably costs them this game. Rex Grossman has a lot of talent. He seems like a decent enough guy. But he makes bad, very bad football decisions. The Bears have the two of the three most important factors to winning playoff football 1) a good defense and 2) a good running game. They lack that third crucial element a reliable, smart quarterback.

New Orleans 23 Indianapolis 14 – The Saints Go Marching to Miami

Rebuilding the Bruins – The Illusory One Year Plan

We can put them back together. We have the technology. Errr, maybe not. Despite the occasional worst to first tales in recent sports history, fixing a train wreck of a team is rarely an immediate process. Organizations with the attitude that we can fix this mess quick, like the Boston Bruins, get stuck in the good season bad season, no chance at winning it all rut.

Boston Bruins fans have gone from feast, 29 consecutive playoff appearances, to more of a hi-carb diet, lots of regular season sugar and not enough post-season steak. They grow understandably frustrated with the cotton candy. Like most hockey fans, denizens of the hub of hockey tend to be a passionate lot. Enough so that Boston’s (top rated) sports talker, WEEI, refers to blocks of call-in time in Bruin fans use to vocalize their anger over the team’s misfortunes as Hockey Talk. The pain was not helped by a recent 10-2 drubbing at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs. At least, they can console themselves that they have the Patriots in the AFC Conference Championship this Sunday. Take that Maple Leaf, fans, you don’t even have real football! The rejoinder? Bruins fans don’t have real hockey. Life is rough when it’s been more than thirty years since your last Cup and you have become a team named Sue.

Last year’s stumbles brought the mid-season firing of GM Mike O’Connell and the much delayed, agonizingly so, dismissal of head coach Mike Sullivan after the season ended. O’Connell sealed his fate by dealing the teams two biggest stars in a desperate attempt to shake up the team. When it didn’t work, he was out of work. Sullivan was dismissed more so new GM Peter Chiarelli could have his own guy behind the bench. But coaches are always getting axed in Boston. The Bruins track record of firing coaches in this decade, and even before, would make George Steinbrenner blush.

The constant turnover behind the bench is matched only by the turnover on the bench. The Bruins parsimoniousness once created numerous trade opportunities whenever a player wanted more money than Ray Bourque got paid. Now, with Bourque long retired and continual roster turnover, the Bruins try to catch lightning in a bottle year in and year out. It’s not stinginess, quite the contrary, it’s spending poorly. In fact, the tightfisted Bruins had more success in getting to the postseason than have the free spending version.

What was once a proud franchise has now become the Washington Redskins of hockey. They spend during the offseason and underachieve when the games are played. This offseason brought a new GM, new coach and new hope in the form of Defensemen Zdeno Chara and Paul Mara and forward Marc Savard. The results have been again underwhelming. Erratic goaltending has been a problem for the Bruins, who are currently relying on journeyman Tim Thomas between the pipes. The Bruins had a Calder Trophy (top rookie) winner in net after the 2004 season, in Andrew Raycroft, but Raycroft was ineffective in the first post lockout season and subsequently dealt to Toronto.

When a team with a bigger budget for player salaries underachieves, talent evaluation, as well as the team’s overall definition of how to compete and succeed in the “new NHL,” need to be called into question. Bruins management for years felt the team was one player away from winning the Stanley Cup. They never could find that guy. It wasn’t Kevin Stevens or Al Iafrate or Mariusz Czerkawski. Now, they need more than one guy, but they keep going after the one guy. Winning it all with this team will take more than a silver bullet solution. Until the Bruins, and other devotees of the One-Year Rebuilding Plan, recognize that the on again, off again seasons are the result of poor organizational planning, their fans will continue to suffer through uninspiring, Championship free seasons.

Griffey to Right

Cincinnati’s favorite son may see some time in rightfield in 2007.

The expected news is that Ken Griffey Jr. remains on schedule to be ready for spring training. The unexpected news is that right field may be in his future for the Cincinnati Reds.

Griffey and manager Jerry Narron have talked about the possibility of Griffey switching to right field and Griffey is open-minded about the possibility.

“Griffey is very open to doing what he can do to be on the field more,” Narron said. “He realizes that Kirby Puckett moved (to right field) and that Cal Ripken, Jr. moved to third base.

“He wants to do what is best for the Cincinnati Reds,” Narron added. “He realizes that to be on the field more he has to change positions.”

Before moving, Griffey wants to be certain somebody better can play center field, the position Griffey has played since signing his first major-league contract in 1987.

Griffey’s defense in center had been slipping from above average to average to adequate to yecch in recent years. The move makes good sense. Thirty-one year old Ryan Freel and twenty-seven year old Chris Denorfia can fill the position with slightly above average defense and offense. In a defense first position, like centerfield that is an acceptable tradeoff.

Take a look at a prossible Reds starting lineup.
CF-Rayn Freel
1B-Scott Hatteberg
3B-Edwin Encarnacion
RF-Ken Griffey Jr.
LF-Adam Dunn
2B-Brandon Philips
C-Dave Ross
SS-Alex Gonzalez

Gonzalez is a hole in the eight spot. But the top of the order has good table setters and the heart of the order can mash the ball. That’s a recipe for scoring runs. The Reds didn’t do enough of that last year. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo anchor a mediocre staff and the bullpen is relying on the aging Mike Stanton to nail down games. They have holes in Cincy, but they’ll plate runs. With as many pitching poor teams, especially in the NL Central, they’ll be in plenty of games and may even surprise folks by getting off to a hot start. But unless they add a solid starter and no, Kyle Lohse is not that guy, they are gonna be watching the postseason from their sofas. Homer Bailey might be that guy. Maybe the Reds will get lucky bringing up a 21 year old kid. Or they might get Mark Prior, flashes of brilliance and arm trouble galore.

Mark Prior: Cubs Tease

From the Cubs Official Website

The Cubs began their winter Cubs Caravan tour on Wednesday with good news regarding Mark Prior, who is throwing off the mound and making good progress.

“Mark is up on the hill, throwing some bullpens and doing well,” Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said Wednesday before boarding a bus with other players and staff for a trip to downstate Illinois.

“The reports have been encouraging, and we’re all keeping our fingers crossed,” Hendry said. “We’d love to show up and have the old Mark back and feel like we have a great, new player come in that we weren’t expecting. We wanted to cover ourselves in depth if Mark was behind, but if he’s on schedule, we’ll feel like we got a bonus.”

To quote longtime Cubs fan and commentator George Will, “Well.” The hope resting on Mark Prior’s right shoulder is the hope of the north side of Chicago. Here’s why:

Carlos Zambrano followed Cubs general manager Jim Hendry’s spending spree closely from his Venezuelan home this off-season, knowing his turn to cash in was just around the corner.

Though the Cubs have yet to begin negotiations on a long-term deal for the impending free agent, they got a good idea of what they’re in for on Tuesday when Zambrano filed for a club-record $15.5 million in arbitration. The Cubs countered with an offer of $11.025 million, meaning Zambrano probably will do no worse than a $13 million salary for ’07 if the two sides settle before his hearing.

Ultimately, Zambrano is expected to seek a six-year deal for somewhere around $100 million-$110 million when contract talks begin next month.

“Carlos always has stated he wants to stay here,” Hendry said. “In the near future we’ll be working to get a multiyear contract done.”

Zambrano’s filing figure was the highest of any arbitration-eligible player this winter.

The spending isn’t done in Chicago. It might just be starting up. If the Cubs and Zambrano can’t work out a deal, Zambrano will be a very attractive free agent in next year’s market. And the Cubs are back to relying on Mark Prior and his limitless potential and questionable health.

Prior will be just 26 next year. It’s a pivotal year for him and the Cubs.