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| Wednesday, December 20, 2006 |
Second baseman Marcus Giles joined the San Diego Padres this week, agreeing to a one-year contract for $3.2 million and an option year. Having passed his physical, he should be introduced as a member of the club today. Giles and his brother Brian, also a Padre, grew up near San Diego and have each signed with their hometown team for less than market value. In doing so, the brothers have given the team the option of pursuing higher priced talent as a means of achieving the ultimate goal of winning the World Series.
Often overlooked among baseball’s myriad of celebrity GMs, Kevin Towers has done a terrific job of assembling a capable and young roster. He does not fit into the neat pre-packaged and ill-defined GM categories of stats and scouts. Instead he has focused on filling needs and making sensible deals operating in his budget and winning his division, albeit a weakened division. The 2007 San Diego Padres may be the best team he has assembled, including the NL Champion Padres of 1998. Those Padres, led by Greg Vaughn, Kevin Brown and the late Ken Caminiti, was a veteran team that after losing the World Series fell apart. The back to back division titles seems like a starting point for the resurgent and youthful Padres. Marcus Giles at 29 is the oldest starting infielder on the club. And with young sluggers at the corners in Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2004 Rookie of the Year runner-up Khalil Greene at short, the infield is a strong point.
Giles’s former team appears for the first time in 15 years to be in disarray. Capped by a hard budget from Time Warner as it pursues the sale of the club, the Atlanta Braves were forced to non-tender Giles, knowing he would receive far more in arbitration than the $3.2 million that the Padres will pay him. The Braves tremendous run atop the National League’s Eastern Division was extended by creative moves in the last few years. Their decline will need to be managed with equal competence. Unlike the Padres, the Braves future does not look as bright.
Two teams going in opposite directions. JC Bradbury, professor and Braves fan, blogs over at Sabernomics.com. His take on Marcus Giles and the Braves inability to move him illustrates the trap the Braves are in with several of their players.
Now, it looks like Giles is a .770 OPS player, which is about the NL average. We knew 2003 was a fluke, but so were 2004 and 2005. But still, he has a good defensive reputation and he’s not embarrassing himself with his bat. What’s the deal?
It’s not that no one wants him, but that the Braves are in an awkward position. He’s entering his final year of arbitration and he projects to garner a salary of about $6 million. Because his stats have been over-measuring his true ability, he’s been getting bigger arbitration raises than he otherwise would have for the past two years. I estimate Giles dollar value to the Braves in 2006 to be $5.55 million (slightly more than Jeff Francoeur’s value—where’s Marcus’s Delta commercial?). Using his PrOPS projection, he was expected to have generated about $5.9 million. This means that the projected $6 million he’ll likely get in arbitration is almost exactly what he is worth.
I think this explains what the Braves are having so much trouble moving him. Let’s pretend that Giles is a $10 million player. The team that acquires him will have to pay Giles $6 million. This means that a team wanting to acquire him would be willing to trade $4 million in assets to acquire Giles; and in return, the Braves would receive $10 million in return ($6 million freed up from not having to play Giles + $4 million in other assets). But, Giles’s value is equal to his salary. There is very little that a team would be willing give up beyond $6 million to get Giles—we’re talking a low-A weak prospect. Scott Linebrink was never an option. This is why the Braves can’t find any takers. When a player signed to an over-paying long-term contract a team will often have to pay part of the the traded player’s salary. But, in this case, the cash-strapped Braves can get his salary off the books by simply declining to offer him arbitration.
Bradbury’s point explains a lot of deals that on first glance don’t make much sense. Why did the Yankees give almost nothing for Bobby Abreu? Because they were willing to take on his whole contract, which while just adding to the luxury tax bill, is still insignificant to the Yankees, who measure success less in profits than in titles. Why can the Red Sox not find good value for Manny Ramirez? Most clubs value his production at $19 – $20 million and don’t want to give up more than what they will have to pay Ramirez. Until some team values Manny’s production at $25 to $30 million, the Red Sox will not get the fair return they are hoping for and Manny will just have to be Manny in Boston.
This also explains why the Red Sox dealt Bronson Arroyo after signing him to a hometown discount kind of deal. His estimated value to another team was greater than the salary they would be committed to pay. As a result, a young power hitter was a small price to pay for a slightly better than American League average pitcher who turned into a well above National League average pitcher.
One final note on the Braves, the decrease in payroll leaves the Braves in a difficult position, but Bradbury notes, this is not the responsibility of ownership.
With the release of Marcus Giles and the Braves failure to even make an offer to Tom Glavine, many fans have been complaining about the $80 million payroll constraint that Time Warner has imposed on John Schuerholz. This isn’t a bad ownership problem. It’s not like John Schuerholz was handed a memo to cut payroll last week. He’s been complaining about the constraint since he cut Kevin Millwood lose after the 2002 season—which was an excellent move to avoid overpaying Millwood.
$80 million isn’t too paltry a sum to run a ballclub. Eight NL teams had payrolls less than that in 2006. One of them made the playoffs (San Diego) and another won 78 games—one game less than the Braves—with $15 million (Florida). In the AL, Minnesota and Oakland made the playoffs on $60 million payrolls. And Cleveland and Texas won about the same number of games as the Braves with payrolls under $70 million. Now, this doesn’t mean that a larger budget wouldn’t make things easier. I could do a lot more things if I had more money, but there’s not much I can do beyond working within my constraints.
Salary disparity is getting worse and worse in baseball, but the parity of championships in baseball is remarkable. Since the Yankee juggernaut began to fade, there has not been a repeat World Series winner. In Football, the Patriots meanwhile have won three titles in that same span. And football does have a salary cap. A salary cap is not necessarily the answer. Fiscal restraint and good management are. The continued success of the Oakland A’s, San Diego Padres and yes, Florida Marlins say that you can compete and succeed getting more for less. Those three teams have combined for as many titles as the big spending Red Sox, Yankees, Mets and Cubs in the last six years. That Yankee juggernaut was based on homegrown talent supplemented with reasonably priced veteran role players. It’s still the best way to build a winner. The Padres are using it. The Braves need to get back to it.
Cross posted at Ennuipundit
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| Wednesday, December 20, 2006 |
AP reports that soon-to-be-former Atlanta Braves second baseman Marcus Giles passed his physical and will join his brother, Brian, on their hometown San Diego Padres. It’s good news for the Padres and the Giles brothers but bad news for the Braves, their fans, and baseball in general.
Marcus Giles came up through the Braves farm system, has had a better-than-expected career with them, and would almost certainly love to stay. The Braves would certainly love to keep him but they can’t afford to keep him on a $70 million a year budget.
Since Ted Turner sold his holdings, including the Braves, to Time-Warner, the team has gone from one of the “haves” to a team with an above-average payroll to a point where they can’t afford to keep their own players. Guys like David Justice, Javy Lopez, Tom Glavine, Kevin Millwood, and Rafeal Furcal got dumped for salary reasons. Suddenly, they’re the Montreal Expos.
MLB needs to establish a salary cap system that creates competitive balance, allowing teams that are well managed to develop and keep talent. As it is, the rest of the Major League teams are essentially farm clubs for the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and a handful of other free spenders.
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| Saturday, October 28, 2006 |
Joe Niekro has died.
Former major league pitcher Joe Niekro, Houston’s career victory leader, died Friday, Astros president Tal Smith said. He was 61.
The two-time 20-game winner suffered a brain aneurysm Thursday and was taken to South Florida Baptist Hospital in nearby Plant City, where he lived. He later was transferred to St. Joseph’s Hospital, where he died.
“It came as a real shock to us,” Smith said. “He was a great guy. He had a real spark and a great sense of humor.” Smith said Niekro did not have an active role with the Astros but kept in contact with many of his former Houston teammates.
Niekro, father of San Francisco Giants first baseman Lance Niekro, won 221 games in his career but never became as well known as his Hall of Fame brother, Phil.
Like his older brother, who won 318 games, Joe Niekro found success after developing the knuckleball and pitched into his 40s. They had a combined 539 major league victories, a record for brothers.
[...]
Niekro won a franchise-best 144 games in 11 seasons with the Astros from 1975 to 1985, when he was traded to the New York Yankees. He was an All-Star in 1979, when he went 21-11 with a 3.00 ERA and followed up with a 20-12 record in 1980. He beat the Dodgers in a one-game playoff that clinched Houston’s first postseason berth in 1980. Seven years later, in his 21st season, he finally appeared in the World Series with the Minnesota Twins.
“You are always in shock when you hear something like that, mainly when it hits close to home, a teammate who you have spent a lot of years with,” Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan, a former teammate of Niekro’s, told Houston’s KRIV-TV. “It certainly surprises you when it happens to somebody who has kept themselves in shape and lives a very active life. The last time I saw Joe he looked like he was a picture of health,” Ryan said.
Niekro was born Nov. 7, 1944 in Martins Ferry, Ohio. A third-round draft pick of the Cubs in 1966, he broke into the majors in 1967 and appeared in 702 games, including 500 starts, in 22 years with the Cubs, Padres, Tigers, Braves, Astros, Yankees and Twins. Niekro, who once was suspended for getting caught on the mound with a nail file in his back pocket, pitched his final game in April 1988 — at age 43. He finished 221-204 with a 3.59 ERA, including 144-116 with a 3.22 ERA for the Astros.
Truly a shame.
From AP-
When things looked bleak for the Los Angeles Dodgers, they found their power stroke. The Dodgers hit four consecutive homers in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game, and Nomar Garciaparra’s two-run drive in the 10th lifted Los Angeles to an 11-10 victory over the San Diego Padres on Monday night.
*****
After Los Angeles tied it in the ninth with four straight homers — just the fourth time that’s happened in major league history — the Padres went ahead on Brian Giles’ double and Josh Bard’s two-out single off Aaron Sele (8-6).
But Rudy Seanez (1-2) walked Kenny Lofton to begin the bottom half, and Garciaparra followed by hitting his 18th homer deep into the left-field pavilion.
*****
At Los Angeles, Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew opened the ninth with homers off San Diego’s Jon Adkins. Russell Martin and Marlon Anderson then connected on the first two pitches thrown by Trevor Hoffman, who entered with 475 career saves — three shy of Lee Smith’s major league record.
The last time a team hit four consecutive homers was on May 2, 1964, when the Minnesota Twins accomplished the feat against Kansas City in the 11th inning.
I don’t have anything to add about last night’s game except Dodger stadium is an unlikely place for such a happening. That stadium is one of the toughest hitter’s parks in baseball.
Baseball author Bill James wrote many years ago about the 1964 game. Before that season began, Charles Finley wanted to change the dimensions of Kansas City Municipal Stadium to the exact same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. All in order to increase homerun production. MLB wouldn’t allow the ballpark changes.
So Finley had a line drawn across the outfield in Left and Right where the fence would have been. Whenever a ball was hit over the line, the PA announcer would intone “That would have been a homerun in Yankee Stadium”. On the day of the four consecutive homers, the next batter hit a long fly ball out. The announcer said. “”That would have been a homerun in Yankee Stadium”. The next day that announcement was discontinued.
The 64 A’s did increase their homerun production, but mostly for their opponents. Opposition batters hit a then ML record amount of homers against the A’s.(220 or thereabouts) The record would stand till 1987.
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| Friday, April 21, 2006 |
Julio Franco continues to be the most impressive man in baseball, hitting home runs a decade after most players retire.
The New York Mets must have known what they were doing when they signed Julio Franco to a two-year contract. Franco, 47, became the oldest player in major league history to hit a home run when he connected for a two-run, pinch-hit shot in the eighth inning Thursday night to help the New York Mets rally for a 7-2 win over the San Diego Padres.
And he wants more. “That won’t be the last home run I hit, and I hope I hit one when I’m 50,” said Franco, who has four career pinch-hit homers.
He wasn’t joking.
“Why not? They signed me here for two years,” said Franco, who turns 48 on Aug. 23. “God gave me the great gift to play the game of baseball, and I want to play until I’m 50. If He gives me two more years, don’t you think He’s going to give me another one?”
If Franco lasts that long, he’ll turn 50 during the 2008 season.
I hope he makes it. He resurrected his career when the Braves found him languishing in the Mexican League a few years back. He’s been platooning at first base ever since but the Mets made him an offer the Braves couldn’t match this offseason.
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| Sunday, April 16, 2006 |
A Braves’ starting pitcher finally won a game after eleven tries. Not surprisingly, it was their senior one.
John Smoltz gave the Braves pitching staff a much-needed lift. Smoltz served as the Braves’ stopper with a four-hit shutout to lift Atlanta past Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres 2-0 Saturday night. Smoltz (1-1), relying more on a changeup he says he threw about 25 times, recorded his 16th career shutout and 51st complete game. “This is the type performance I expect,” said Smoltz, who earned the first victory by an Atlanta starter this season.
The Braves starting staff began the day with the worst ERA in the major leagues. “I would say normally it’s no big deal but when you’ve dealt with what we’ve dealt with over the last week and a half … this hopefully will get guys thinking more positively,” Smoltz said.
Peavy (1-2) gave up only four hits and two runs in seven innings as the Braves were held under four runs for the first time this year. He struck out eight batters and issued two walks, one intentional. “Against John Smoltz, you have to be really good to win,” Peavy said. “I wasn’t good enough.”
Smoltz walked two batters in his first shutout since June 21, 2005, a 5-0 win over Florida. He pitched his first complete game since June 26, 2005, against Baltimore.
“It was a well-pitched game on both sides,” said Padres manager Bruce Bochy. “(Smoltz) was on the top of his game. He threw great. We didn’t get many opportunities.” Braves manager Bobby Cox said the 2-0 score “was indicative of the way both guys pitched, which was outstanding.”
The Braves needed the strong start by Smoltz. Through their first 11 games, no Atlanta starter had a win and they had an 8.17 ERA to rank last in the majors. “Statistically there was no way they could keep doing what they had been doing the first week and a half of the season,” said Adam LaRoche, who gave the Braves a 1-0 lead with his second-inning home run. “It was gonna turn. It was just a matter of time.” It is the first time in franchise history the Braves played their first 11 games without a win from a starting pitcher. “This broke the ice,” Smoltz said. “It’s been a storyline for a while and it’s an interesting one because it’s never happened before.” But the Braves stayed close to .500 by leading the majors with 74 runs through 11 games. They set another franchise first by scoring four or more runs in each of the first 11 games.
After all the early season offense, the Braves finally returned to their one constant of the last 15 years. Smoltz, the only player left on the roster from the 1991 team that started the string of 14 straight division championships, was the logical choice to provide the Braves’ first quality start.
I don’t think any of us would have predicted this start for the Braves. The offense probably is not good enough to score four runs a game on a consistent basis–and the starting pitching is certainly better than this. It just shows the streaky nature of baseball and why you shouldn’t get too excited by the way the first few games go. The Braves have won fourteen straight division titles, sometimes dominating right out of the gate and sometimes in last place at the end of May. After 162 games, it all shakes out.
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