Weekly Miami Dolphins prediction

Bill Jempty | Sunday, October 22, 2006

The Miami Dolphins(1-5) play host to Green Bay(1-4) this afternoon. Last weekend Miami lost to the New York Jets 20-17 after a failed 4th quarter comeback fell short on a field goal attempt by Olindo Mare with less than two minutes to go in the game.

It would be easy to blame Mare, but the Dolphins played terrible last weekend like they have all year. The offense continues to sputter for 3 quarters, then rushes to salvage the game when the 4th quarter comes. This template worked only once against Tennessee, while falling flat with it against Buffalo, Houston and the Jets.(Plus arguably New England who Miami trailed 13-0 early, got it back to 13-10 but then lost 20-10) Miami needs to show offensive consistency for once this year. Will it be versus Green Bay?

Bret Favre is only making his second ever(and almost certainly his last) appearance in Miami. I think Favre should retire. It will be years before the Pack are competitive again. Then that may be true for Miami too who has old starters almost every where and few draft picks producing at present. Just look at their first round pick Jason Allen. He has yet to play a down on defense this year.

Green Bay is a bad team, so is Miami. Who will win? The Palm Beach Post prognosticators are all picking the Dolphins again, but I’m not. Prediction- Green Bay 21, Miami 17.

Note- I’m 4-1 picking the winner of Miami Dolphin games so far this year. Only in week 2 when Buffalo beat Miami was I wrong.

Tags | NFL Bill Jempty, Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, SEC

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NFL Offensive Lines Ranked 1 to 32

| Saturday, October 21, 2006

According to the experts at Scouts, Inc., the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have the best offensive line in football while the hapless Oakland Raiders have the worst. Here’s how they break down all 32 teams:

NFL’s best offensive lines
Rank	Team	Comment
1.		Offensive line coach and former Steeler Russ Grimm does an outstanding job with this team’s line every year. This group didn’t lose a starter from last season and remains very solid across the board. Pittsburgh drafts linemen every year and builds depth from within as well as any team in the league. Overall, this group has not played as well this season. However, not well for them still makes them better than anyone else in the NFL. Best player: OG Alan Faneca
2.		The Broncos employ a zone-blocking scheme. They like undersized offensive linemen who are light on their feet and can move well laterally. They do not have any real star power on the offensive line, but the fact that they have been together as a group for a while and play well together makes them one of the best units in the NFL. Best player: C Tom Nalen
3.		This has the potential of being the top overall line in the NFL. Starting OC Rich Braham and LT Levi Jones have missed extended time this season and as a result, their pass protection has been a problem. When right, the right side of the line is very physical, while the left is athletic and nimble. Best player: C Eric Steinbach
4.		The Colts use a zone-blocking scheme where the most important thing is for the linemen to stay on their feet. There is no one on the line that would jump out at you as a massive physical specimen. With one of the best O-line coaches in the business (Howard Mudd), the players just don’t make many mistakes. They are a better at pass blocking than run blocking. Best player: OT Tarik Glenn
5.		The Eagles like big, tough, physical lineman who have the athletic ability to suit their up-tempo offense. These players must be good pass blockers first as the Eagles are a pass-heavy team. But they also have to be mean enough and big enough to open up holes in the run game. This group is a mix of young and old that has really put the time and effort into becoming one of the best lines in the league. Best player: OG Shawn Andrews
6.		The Redskins like their offensive linemen to have good size and athletic ability to fit their man-blocking scheme. These players must be able to option around and pull to pickup linebackers and defensive backs on the second level because the Redskins are a heavy outside running team. Their lineman have to have the agility to run over obstacles and be good in space. This is a veteran group that is anchored by LT Chris Samuels. Best player: OT Chris Samuels
7.		The Patriots have the best offensive line in the AFC East. They have a bunch of experience and have been together for several years. Rookie tackle Ryan O’Callaghan has done a nice job filling in for starter Nick Kaczur in New England’s mixture of zone and man-blocking schemes. Best player: OT Matt Light
8.		The Jaguars, with new O-line coach Andy Heck, employ primarily zone-blocking scheme, but also will man block at times. Their interior (guards and center) has a lot of power and can get push using their explosive thrust. While they might lack stars, they don’t really have any weak spots, either. They are a better run-blocking team. Best player: OT Maurice Williams
9.		Returning after missing the better part of the last two seasons with injuries center Matt Birk leads a revamped offensive line that includes free-agent addition Steve Hutchinson at OG and Bryant McKinnie at OT. While the strength of the offense, this unit has struggled at times this year with penalties, stalling drives at critical times. Best player: OG Steve Hutchinson
10.		The biggest surprise in Chicago this season has been the explosive play of the offense and the line has been a big reason for that. The Bears’ offensive line has been solid in protection, allowing Rex Grossman to stand in the pocket and throw down the field. Center Olin Kreutz brings intensity and leadership to a veteran group. While solid in the run game, this group sometimes struggles to get to the second level to block linebackers to create big runs. Best player: C Olin Kreutz
11.		Despite the loss of OG Steve Hutchinson, this is a good group. They’re just not as dominant as last year. They are providing good protection for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and opening good run lanes despite the absence of RB Shaun Alexander. Best player: OT Walter Jones
12.		This is one of the more underrated units in the NFL. General manager A.J. Smith has done an excellent job of extending contracts for the young players (OC Nick Hardwick and ROT Shane Olivea) to lock them up long-term. Rookie Marcus McNeill also looks like a budding star at LOT. This is a young group that possess a nice combination of size, strength and athletic ability. They will be in the top five in the near future. Best player: C Nick Hardwick
13.		The Panthers rely on their power running game to setup the play-action pass. The Panthers’ offensive line takes a lot of pride in their smash-mouth rushing attack. Even with the injuries and reshuffling on the line, this unit has been more consistent over the last few weeks. However the loss of LT Travelle Wharton earlier in the season was a blow to this unit. Best player: OG Mike Wahle
14.		The Falcons are the No. 1-ranked rushing unit in the NFL. The Falcons do a great job creating run lanes for RB Warrick Dunn in their zone-blocking schemes. Even though they are effective running the ball, they do have limitations on the interior of their offensive line in pass protection, which a defense can attack and exploit. Best player: OT Wayne Gandy
15.		The Giants’ offensive line is a veteran group that has played together for a number of years. The Giants, like a lot of teams, like their lineman to be big and athletic. That’s especially true at the guard positions because they are called upon to pull on outside running plays and block on the second level in space. Best player: OG Chris Snee
16.		Offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Doug Marrone has done an outstanding job of molding this unit of both veterans and younger players into one of the team’s most consistent units. This no-name unit has done a great job of keeping QB Drew Brees upright in the pocket, while creating space for running backs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Best player: OT Jammal Brown
17.		A big question mark at the start of the season, this unit is still a work in progress as far as pass protection goes because they’ve had trouble picking up the different pressure packages teams have used on them. They do a good job of coming off the ball and re-establishing the line of scrimmage in the run game on the defensive side of the ball. Still, the Cowboys need to be more consistent in pass protection. Best player: OT Flozell Adams
18.		The Titans, under Mike Munchak, are primarily a man-blocking team that, traditionally, likes to grind out the yards with a mauling type line that gets push and creates running lanes. The Titans have changed, somewhat, this year to using the zone techniques that better fit their smaller, more athletic linemen. The core of their strength is in their second- and third-year players, which bodes well for the future if they can lock these guys up long term. Best player: OT Michael Roos
19.		Once one of the best in the NFL, this unit has hit hard times this year with the sudden retirement of LOT Willie Roaf and the suspension of ROT John Welbourn. The interior is still good enough, but ROG Will Shields is at the end of his career. Waters is now the best of the group and a solid player to build around. They have some young OTs in Jordan Black, Kevin Sampson and Will Svitek that are seeing a lot more time this season. If they can develop, the Chiefs will once again be among the top 10 offensive lines in the NFL. Best player: OG Brian Waters
20.		This makeshift offensive line has been playing well together despite losing center Andy McCollum, the veteran leader of this line, in Week 1. A young offensive line at C and RT, the surrounding veterans have helped elevate the run game, but they need to do a better job of protecting the quarterback against the three man rush. Best player: OT Orlando Pace
21.		The Jets’ offensive line has two rookie starters playing as good as anyone up front. The mixture of zone and man schemes employed by New York is similar to the Patriots OL philosophy. Ranked 21st in the league, the line is more effective as pass protectors than being physical run blockers. Rookies Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson give this line a lot of hope for its future effectiveness. Best player: OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson
22.		The run game will be vastly improved once the arguably most consistent offensive lineman (Larry Allen) in the NFL returns from a knee injury. This unit has been marred by injury and has not had a chance to gel. There is good depth and ability at the center and guard spots, but the two tackles are not holding the corner as well as they should. Best player: OG Larry Allen
23.		This is an aging, heavy-footed group that lacks depth. Ogden at left tackle is the only player of the group who is an above average starter for his position. The right side of the line in particular lacks quickness and mobility. The Ravens have three young guys — Chris Chester, Adam Terry and Jason Brown, who is the only one starting — who must progress for the unit to improve. Best player: OT Jonathan Ogden
24.		The Buccaneers’ offensive line has struggled with consistency this season and they continue to hold this team back. There is hope for the future with rookies Davin Joseph and Jeremy Trueblood starting on the right side, but the Buccaneers still have issues on the left side with LT Anthony Davis and the inconsistency at LG with Dan Buenning and Sean Mahan. Best player: C John Wade
25.		The Browns’ offensive line has been a mess since Cleveland rejoined the league. The new regime spent big bucks on LT Kevin Shaffer and C LeCharles Bentley to build it towards respectability. But Bentley was lost in his first practice in Cleveland and Shaffer has not lived up to expectations. The interior of the line has not played well this year, which has really hurt their power running game. Best player: OT Ryan Tucker
26.		The Packers have installed a completely new zone-run game scheme and the offensive line is beginning to show signs of consistency. Green Bay’s line has three rookies rotating at the two guard positions and a relatively inexperienced center, but a solid anchor in left tackle Chad Clifton. While the learning curve is steep, the offensive line is beginning to gel. Best player: OT Chad Clifton
27.		This unit has been decimated by injury all season with center Dominic Raiola and LT Jeff Backus the only constants in the ever-changing lineup. Protection breakdowns, in most part due to a complete lack of continuity, have forced Jon Kitna to hurry throws that have resulted in several critical turnovers. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz was smart to stay committed to the run game in Week 6. Look for this group to continue running the ball or it will continue to struggle. Best player: OT Jeff Backus
28.		Ranked in the bottom five in the league (28th), the Buffalo OL has regressed over the past two weeks. The Bills had some success protecting the passer in their man-protection scheme through Week 4 but have given up eight sacks in the past two weekends. The OL is not physically imposing and must be effective with technique and athleticism. Best player: OT Jason Peters
29.		The Miami offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. The Dolphins had given up 22 sacks prior to Week 6, but improved vs. the Jets with their primarily zone-blocking scheme. Moving left tackle L.J. Shelton to guard and starting Damion McIntosh at left tackle gives them their best combination up front. This line is not very good, but it has shown signs of being better since Joey Harrington became the starting QB. Best player: OT Vernon Carey
30.		The Cardinals’ offensive line does not have an identity or attitude. Lack of viable veteran depth has hindered the progress of this unit and made the team limited in shuffling players into more productive positions. Left tackle Leonard Davis would be a much better player if he was at his natural guard spot. Best player: OG Reggie Wells
31.		The Texans use pretty much the same blocking schemes as the Denver Broncos, where head coach Gary Kubiak came from. The Texans are trying to find or develop athletic linemen. This scheme requires the players to have time together and familiarity with one another, which, at this point, the Texans are lacking. Best player: OG Chester Pitts
32.		This is hands down the worst unit in the NFL this season. The Raiders have two solid players in LOG Barry Sims and C Jake Grove. LOT Robert Gallery has been somewhat of a bust and the entire right side needs to be rebuilt. Although it’s not a great unit by any means, it’s important to note that the coaching staff in Oakland does a terrible job of playing to their players’ strengths. Best player: OG Barry Sims

Tags | NFL Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jonathan Ogden, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, SEC, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins

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Parity in Professional Sports

| Saturday, October 21, 2006

Dan Wetzel argues that, conventional wisdom to the contrary, Major League Baseball, despite wild disparities in team salary, has far more parity than the National Football League and National Basketball Association do with their salary caps and revenue sharing.

MLB will crown its seventh different World Series champion in seven years, either Detroit or St. Louis joining the Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Florida Marlins, (then) Anaheim Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks and Yankees as winners this decade. Even more telling, the Tigers are the 11th different team (out of a possible 14) to reach the World Series during that time.

In comparison, the NFL, with its hard salary cap and “any given Sunday” motto, has crowned just five different champions the past seven years and also seen 11 different teams reach the Super Bowl. The NBA, which also boasts the kind of salary cap seemingly everyone claims baseball desperately needs, has seen just four teams win the title in the past seven years. Just eight teams have reached the NBA Finals during that stretch.

Making the MLB numbers even more impressive is the fact that baseball invites just eight of its 30 teams (26.6 percent) to the postseason. The NFL lets in 12 of 32 (37.5 percent) and the NBA goes with 16 of 30 (53.3 percent), which increases the likelihood of upset-driven diversity in the late rounds.

There is little question that big-market teams with big payrolls have an advantage in fielding a championship-caliber club; obviously, the Yankees have a better chance than the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. But baseball is a different kind of game, and stockpiling talent isn’t enough – as the Yankees’ six-year World Series drought has proven.

[...]

Baseball is a game where the highest-paid player, the Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez ($25 million in 2006), can bat .071 against the Tigers. It is a sport where even the best player only gets up every few innings and the top starting pitcher can only go every fourth day, at best. It is basketball where a player can have an effect at both ends of the court on every single play. It is football where a player can impact at least half of the action.

In baseball, you can’t win without a team – a deep, clutch, close-knit, total team. And you just can’t buy that.

From 1991 through 2005, the Atlanta Braves won their division every year (with an asterisk for the strike-shortened 1994 season, when they were trailing the Montreal Expos but MLB awarded the penants to the team that had won the previous year). They had three Hall of Fame candidates, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz in their pitching rotation simultaneoulsy for most of that stretch. Yet, they won only a single World Series. By contrast, the 1992 expansion Florida Marlins never won a single division title, had losing seasons almost every year, and won two championships.

That’s not so much parity, though, but the nature of the game. In football and basketball, the better team almost always wins. In baseball, even the most dominant teams lose a third of their games. That’s because, as Wetzel notes, a single player can have a major impact every game.

By contrast, baseball is mostly about dominating starting pitching. Since a starter generally only pitches every fifth day, the dynamics are very different from one game to the next. The left hand/right hand thing matters a whole lot more with pitching and hitting, too. Hitters go through hot streaks and slumps in a way that quarterbacks and power forwards don’t.

This is a major reason why baseball experts agree that winning a World Series is partly about luck. A single football game is generally a pretty good test of which team is better, barring a freak injury to the quarterback. A best of seven series in basketball is virtually never won by the inferior team. That’s because a Joe Montana or a Michael Jordan aren’t sitting on the bench in the final minutes of a close game. Barring injury to Tom Brady, the New England Patriots would never start the quarterbacking equivalent of Oliver Perez in the AFC Championship game.

A great regular season baseball team is built around steady production on hitting and defense and a deep pitching rotation. In a 162 game grind, with maybe five or six days off a month, we get a pretty good idea who the best teams are in each league. In the playoffs, though, a team can ride two hot starting pitchers to a championship (see the Arizona Diamondbacks).

Regardless, however, “parity” isn’t so much a measure of which teams win the championship but which ones have a chance to compete. The only way the Kansas City Royals will ever go to another World Series under the current system is to either start spending a whole lot more money or have extraordinarily good luck in developing talent. By contrast, the New York Yankees can essentially buy themselves a ticket to the playoffs every year. That they’ve invested too much in aging superstars past their prime isn’t a testament to parity but bad management.

OTB

Tags | MLB, NBA, NFL Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins, Kansas City Royals, New England Patriots, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals

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Kornheiser’s First Season on MNF Could Be His Last

| Friday, October 20, 2006

One and done for Mr. Tony?

ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser said he has “no plans at the moment” to return to Monday Night Football next season. “At the moment, in my mind, I always thought I signed up for one year,” Kornheiser, in his rookie year on MNF, told NYP TV Sports.

So you don’t think you will be back? “This is the one year,” Kornheiser said. “I have no plans at the moment, but I don’t think anyone should be stunned or shocked or surprised or blow their brains out if I just say, ‘That was fun. Thanks a lot. See ya.”’

When asked if he has had “serious thoughts” about this possible decision, Kornheiser leaned on his self-effacing style that has made him a multi-media success. “No, I haven’t had serious thoughts, I have had random, old-guy musings,” Kornheiser, 58, said.

Kornheiser said he hates the traveling, but he knew he would. What he didn’t anticipate was the amount of preparation it takes each week. “It is a job for me,” said Kornheiser, who will work Monday’s Giants-Cowboys game. “It is work for me.”

While Kornheiser, Mike Tirico and Joe Theismann haven’t been scintillating, MNF has been a huge ratings success for ESPN. This week it beat NBC’s Sunday Night Football – marking the first time a cable network had more households watching in prime time than did a broadcast network on the same NFL weekend.

Via Calvin Watkins. Like his commentators, I’d much rather see Theismann leave than TK, who hasn’t been half bad.

Unfortunately, every MNF trio will be compared to Howard Cossell, Frank Gifford, and Don Meredith. None has stacked up well. Al Michaels and John Madden were, by far, the best post-Cosell combination but the show never regained that sense of watching something unique.

Tags | NFL, Television & The Media

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Fassel Angled for Job Instead of Doing the One He Had

| Friday, October 20, 2006

Ouch:

The hardest part of Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick’s decision to fire offensive coordinator Jim Fassel was the uncomfortableness of telling a friend that he simply wasn’t working very hard.

The word coming out of Baltimore these days is that Fassel spent much more of his time over the past year angling for a new job rather than focusing on his current one. Time and again, other members of the offensive staff would walk to Fassel’s office with a question or comment, only to be turned away as Fassel spent time on the phone networking rather than focusing on the game plan. Or as one person in the building said this week: “I’ve never seen an offensive coordinator who watched less tape than Jim did this year.”

That’s harsh, but it comes laced with great anguish. Many of Fassel’s former cohorts on the Ravens’ staff are friends from years gone by. Over the past year, those friends had hoped that Fassel would break out of the funk that has afflicted him since he was fired as head coach of the New York Giants in 2003. Since then, Fassel has felt a sense of entitlement, thinking he deserved another chance to be a head coach.

“Jim kept telling everybody all the things he had done as head coach of the Giants and asking, ‘How can Nick Saban [Dolphins] get a job before me? How can Scott Linehan [Rams] get a job before me?’” a source said. “Instead of that, he should have been concentrating on doing a good job.”

It’s got to be a hell of an ego letdown going from being an NFL head coach, let alone one who has taken a team to the Super Bowl, to a mere assistant. Many seem to manage the transition, though, and excel while they wait for another offer. Fassel apparently couldn’t.

There’s no small irony, either, that the offensive coordinator he fired while with the Giants, Sean Payton, got the head coaching job with the New Orleans Saints this year and is on his way to Coach of the Year honors.

OTB

Tags | James Joyner, NFL Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants

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Tiki Barber Plans to Retire at End of Season

Sean Hackbarth | Friday, October 20, 2006

Tiki Barber the New York Giants’ all-time rusher plans to call it quits after this season:

“I’ve been talking about retirement for years now, and it has nothing to do with being physical or money or Hall of Fame,” Barber said. “It’s all about my desires, and for me to change them would compromise my integrity and would compromise who I am as a person and what I’ve always stood for.”
…
“I have a lot of interests and I’ve never wanted to be solely defined as a football player,” said Barber, who will earn $4.15 million this season. “I wasn’t that way in high school, I wasn’t that way in college and I won’t compromise my ideals to be that way in the National Football League.”

Tiki’s been very productive the past few years. Last year, he rushed for 1860 yards. In 2004, he rushed for 1518. If he does retire he’ll be like Barry Sanders and leave at his peak.

Tags | NFL New York Giants, Sean Hackbarth

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Cowboys Re-Sign DB Marcus Coleman

| Thursday, October 19, 2006

Just five days after releasing him, the Cowboys have re-signed versatile defensive back Marcus Coleman.

The Dallas Cowboys have re-signed 10-year veteran defensive back Marcus Coleman, who was released last Saturday for procedural reasons, after having had rejoined the team following a league-imposed four-game suspension for a violation of the NFL substance-abuse policy.

Club officials indicated on Saturday that the primary reason for the release was that Coleman would have been guaranteed 75 percent of his salary if he were on the roster last week. By releasing him over the weekend, and now re-signing him, the Cowboys voided the guarantee. Coleman, 32, had signed a one-year, $850,000 contract in April, with a base salary of $810,000, the minimum for a veteran with 10 or more seasons in the league. He will still receive a salary of $810,000, but prorated over the final 11 weeks of the season.

The team cleared a roster spot for Coleman on Monday by waiving wide receiver Jamaica Rector, who was subsequently signed to the Dallas practice squad.

The versatile defensive back was signed to provide the Cowboys veteran depth and flexibility in the secondary. He played in the preseason in nickel and dime packages, then was suspended before the start of the regular season. Team officials feel he can still add stability to a position under scrutiny. Rookie free safety Pat Watkins has started every game but struggled at times. There may be some situations in which Coleman could replace Watkins or play as an extra safety.

Primarily a cornerback for the first eight seasons of his NFL career, much of that with the New York Jets, Coleman moved to safety in 2004 with the Houston Texans and played well at the new position. He started 12 games at free safety in ’04 and, despite missing the final month of the season with a shoulder injury, registered 80 tackles, two interceptions and eight passes defensed.

The Cowboys are very strong on defense but the safety position continues to be a problem. Yes, Roy Williams is a hitting machine and is likely headed to his third straight Pro Bowl. Unfortunately, if the receiver gets past him, it’s a touchdown.

Tags | NFL Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets, SEC

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OLIVER PEREZ is starting Game 7?

| Thursday, October 19, 2006

Tonight’s NLCS Game 7 pitching matchup between Oliver Perez and Jeff Suppan seems like a weird matchup. I don’t think Perez is anyone’s idea of a Game 7 starter.

I read about the decision to pitch Perez this game, and immediately thought of Perez’s last team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. In that organization, Perez has always struggled (but then, most pitchers struggle there for some reason). As most of the pitchers I’ve seen have done in the past 10 years, Perez was touted as a huge prospect, and then proceeded to not do much of anything. The Pirates were only happy to have the Mets take him off their hands.

Now, the Mets are pitching him in Game 7. They really don’t have a good choice here. The only person who can be happy with this situation is Perez, who gets the chance to prove on a national sports stage what he is made of. If he pitches a great game, and advances the Mets to the World Series, he will always be remembered as the worst Game 7 pitcher to win. That is the stuff that legends are made of. If he wins, no matter what happens afterwards, he will be remembered as someone making the most of their opprotunity once thrust on the stage.

If he loses, he really has nothing to lose either. He won’t be blamed, since no one thought they would be counting on him at this stage. Mets fans will blame the injuries that caused them to resort to starting the 3-13 Perez twich in the NLCS. Sure, he won’t be remembered, but he won’t be the goat, either. Unless, of course, he does something worse than put out the losing pitching effort, such as botch an easily catchable out, or hit a batter with the bases loaded to force home the go ahead run. In other words, he’d have to do something besides lose the game in order to be remembered in a negative light.

I can’t imagine that Oliver Perez thought he’d be pitching in Game 7 a month ago, or even a week ago. What a change for him, considering where he was at the beginning of this season.

UPDATE (James Joyner): Rob Neyer dubs Perez “the worst — Game 7 starter ever.” More precisely, “He has the worst regular-season ERA of a pitcher to start a Game 7.”

Tags | MLB James Joyner, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals

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Mike Vanderjagt, Idiot Kicker, Key to Cowboys’ Hopes

| Thursday, October 19, 2006

Greg Garber is right:

Vanderjagt is absolutely, certifiably the most accurate field goal kicker in the history of the National Football League. His success rate (.8745) is nearly four percentage points better than the second-best kicker, Phil Dawson of the Browns.

And yet, when Vanderjagt’s career epitaph is written, two words will loom larger than all others: Idiot Kicker.

Yet, he’s a multi-millionaire in a league that suddenly realizes the value of kickers.

There was a time, not so long ago, when kickers were outcasts in the NFL. They were undersized, finesse-oriented specialists in a smash-mouth man’s game. Kickers, even within the context of a team, weren’t considered real football players. But coaches have long known that special teams can determine the outcome of just as many games as offense or defense. Consider the recent results of Week 6, where, appropriately, six games hinged on the performance of placekickers:

• The Cardinals’ Neil Rackers, who set an NFL record last season by kicking 40 of 42 field goals, missed a 41-yard field goal with 53 seconds left. Arizona — which once led by 20 points — lost to the Chicago Bears 24-23.

• Seattle’s Josh Brown kicked a 54-yard field goal as time expired to give the Seahawks a 30-28 victory over the Rams.

• The Saints’ John Carney kicked a 31-yard field goal as time expired, giving New Orleans a dramatic 27-24 victory over the Eagles.

• Jason Hanson’s 29-yard field goal was the difference in Detroit’s first victory of the season, a 20-17 win over Buffalo.

• Rob Bironas kicked three field goals — including a 30-yarder with 5:11 left to play — to carry the Tennessee Titans to their first victory, 25-22 over Washington.

• Two field goals by Mike Nugent ultimately made a difference in the Jets’ 20-17 victory over the Miami Dolphins.

No wonder they’re paying kickers like CEOs. The Colts, who passed on Vanderjagt in the offseason, signed the Patriots’ three-time Super Bowl champion Adam Vinatieri to a contract that featured a signing bonus of $3.5 million and an average salary of $2.5 million over the next three years. The Vikings signed Packers placekicker Ryan Longwell to a five-year contract worth $10 million and three weeks ago the San Diego Chargers locked up Nate Kaeding — beginning only his third NFL season — for five years with a $12.2 million deal, $3.5 million of it guaranteed.

[...]

With the 2006 NFL salary cap at $102 million and 53 players on each roster, you can argue that — based on their impact — kickers are still underpaid.

“The devil’s advocate will say we don’t really work a whole lot,” Vanderjagt said. “You know, we stand around for an hour and 45 minutes out of a two-hour practice. But we get paid to make plays on Sunday. Field goals are definitely deciding more games and more and more teams are realizing that.

Certainly, the Cowboys are among them, after losing three games last year because of going the street free agent route on kickers.

Enter Vanderjagt, who is as decorated as a placekicker can be. He is one of only four placekickers to go an entire season without missing a field goal, going 37-for-37 in 2003 with the Colts. That was part of his NFL-record 41 consecutive field goal run. Vanderjagt is the Colts’ all-time leading scorer, with 995 points and has scored 100 points in each of his first eight seasons. He also has 11 game-winning field goals in the last 15 seconds of a game.

[...]

Vanderjagt could maintain his lead as the league’s most accurate kicker through the end of his career. For one thing, he has a comfortable margin over Browns’ kicker Dawson. For another: He enjoyed the indoor safety and comfort of the Colts’ RCA Dome and Texas Stadium, though it has an opening in the roof, keeps most of nature’s elements out.

Vanderjagt says he is happy in his working environment, which is something he hasn’t experienced in some time.

“To this day, I have not received any verbal thrashings for missing field goals,” he said. “When I met Coach Parcells for the first time, he said, ‘I don’t want to screw you up. I’m going to let you do your own thing.’ I wasn’t pushing the panic button.

“I keep telling him, ‘You’re the head coach and you’ve got a lot on your mind. The field goal kicker shouldn’t be one of them.’”

Thirty minutes after a lengthy phone interview, the phone rang again.

“Yeah,” he said, “it’s Mike Vanderjagt.

“Hey, I just wanted to mention that my field goal percentage is actually better outside than it is inside. There’s a perception that I’m more of an indoor kicker. It might be just half a point, but you should point out that I’m better outside.”

Heh. So far, at least, the Cowboys haven’t lost any games this year owing to crappy kicking. (Crappy quarterbacking, on the other hand. . . ) I’ll take an Idiot Kicker that makes ‘em over a smart one who misses every time.

Tags | James Joyner, NFL Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, San Diego Chargers, SEC, Tennessee Titans

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