Brady Quinn a Safe Pick
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James Joyner | Wednesday, April 25, 2007 |
NFL draft guru Rick Gosselin thinks people are selling Brady Quinn short.
There hasn’t been a college quarterback more prepared to enter than NFL since Peyton Manning in 1998. There is no bust factor in Quinn.
History tells us that. In the last 10 years, the NFL has used 10 first-round picks on quarterbacks who were four-year starters in college. Only one washed out – Cade McNown, who was the fifth quarterback selected in that Class of 1999.
Of those 10 four-year starters, five have become Pro Bowlers: Culpepper, McNabb, Manning , Carson Palmer (drafted in 2003) and Philip Rivers (2004). Two have won NFL passing titles, Manning and Chad Pennington (drafted in 2000), and two have been to Super Bowls, Manning and McNabb.
Seven are currently starting: Manning, McNabb, Pennington, Palmer, Rivers, Jason Campbell (drafted in 2005) and Jay Cutler (2006).
Kyle Boller (drafted in 2003) lost his starting job in 2006 when the Baltimore Ravens signed former NFL MVP Steve McNair in free agency. Boller left the lineup with a winning NFL record (18-16) and more TD passes (36) than interceptions (34). He remains in Baltimore as a backup. Culpepper lost his starting position at Miami in 2006 because of a knee injury.
There’s a school of thought that one of every two quarterbacks selected in the first-round of NFL drafts is a bust. But the deck is stacked in favor of those four-year starters for NFL survival.
It’s a great point. Almost all the big name busts–Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch come readily to mind–skipped their senior seasons. I don’t know that Quinn is going to be a great NFL quarterback. And, thankfully, there’s zero chance that the Dallas Cowboys will draft him, so I don’t have to lose any sleep over it. But he’ll almost certainly be a decent quarterback for years to come.
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