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| Saturday, April 28, 2007 |
 Round 2 is underway and I’ll update as it goes along. The trades are fast and furious and there’s much less information available as we get deeper in the draft and I won’t do player-by-player analyses other than perhaps for the picks made by the Dallas Cowboys and really oddball news (like Philly taking Houston QB Kevin Kolb with their first pick).
ESPN DraftTracker:
33. Arizona Cardinals
Pick acquired from Oakland
The pick: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Scouts take: The saying it all starts up front is a football cliché that rings true more times than not and Arizona is having an excellent draft if you take that into account. In the first, the Cardinals got OT Levi Brown and trade up to get DT Alan Branch. Branch’s stock plummeted because of concerns about his work ethic and durability but he is an outstanding value here. He has the size, power and quickness to control the middle of the line of scrimmage and keep blockers off the linebackers.
34. Buffalo Bills
Pick acquired from Detroit
The pick: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State
Scouts take: The exodus of Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher makes linebacker a substantial need and the Bills helped fill it by getting a first-round talent in the second round. Posluszny possesses rare instincts, he is relentless in pursuit and he knows how to bring ball carriers down in the open field. Even more impressive, he’s versatile enough to line up on the outside or the inside so the Bills can plug him in wherever they think he is most needed.
35. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The pick: Arron Sears, G, Tennessee
Scouts take: USC head coach Pete Carroll might feel a little slighted because either Steve Smith or Dwayne Jarrett, both USC receivers, would have arguably been better picks here. Where Arron Sears lines up will also have an impact on how strong of a pick this ends up being. If he lines up guard, he would be a valuable addition because he is quick and strong enough to eventually excel there. If they drafted him as an insurance policy for injury-prone Luke Pettigout, it’s a poor pick because he isn’t explosive or long enough to consistently hold up in pass protection on the edge.
36. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick acquired from Cleveland through Houston
The pick: Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston
Scouts take: This is too much of a reach to consider it a quality pick and considering this is the Eagles’ first pick of the day makes this even worse but it’s understandable. The reason is Kolb is an excellent fit for the West Coast offense and the future if the quarterback situation needs to be addressed since Donovan McNabb and Kelly Holcomb aren’t getting any younger.
37. San Diego Chargers
Pick acquired from Washington through Chicago and New York Jets
The pick: Eric Weddle, S, Utah
Scouts take: The Chargers are efficient if nothing else, as they have used their first two picks to fill their most pressing needs. Weddle’s lack of ideal speed, athletic ability and size separated him from the top three safeties in the draft but he is a football player who makes the most of his natural ability. That’s good news for a Chargers’ team that needs him to make an immediate impact.
38. Oakland Raiders
Pick acquired from Arizona
The pick: Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State
Scouts take: While the Raiders signed two tight ends during the offseason, neither can be considered a quality starter and there is a big drop off in talent at the tight end position after Miller. He isn’t quite as fast as Olsen but he has excellent body control and he tracks the ball well so he can make the occasional play downfield. Miller also has strong hands to develop into a productive red zone target and hang onto the bullets QB Jamarcus Russell is certain to be firing next year.
39. Atlanta Falcons
Pick acquired from Houston
The pick: Justin Blalock, G, Texas
Scouts take: Head coach Bobby Petrino wants a bigger, tougher offensive line and general manager Rich McKay appears to be listening. Blalock is a mauler who has the upper body strength to lock onto defender’s frame and the meanness to finish the block once in position. He should step into the starting lineup and give the Falcons a much-needed upgrade at offensive guard.
40. Miami Dolphins
The pick:John Beck, QB, BYU
Scouts take: Miami needed a quarterback and Beck, whose stock gained some steam heading into the weekend, has the tools to develop into an effective starter. He is smart, mechanically sound and accurate. However, Drew Stanton is still on the board and he would have been a better pick in our opinion.
41. Atlanta Falcons
Pick acquired from Minnesota
The pick: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Scouts take: Safety is Atlanta’s biggest weakness and getting Houston likely fills the hole there. The reason is Jimmy Williams can move from corner to safety and Houston can move into the starting slot opposite DeAngelo Hall. And the Falcons should be confident in his ability to start because he faced some of the best receivers in the nation at the collegiate and never backed down. Of course, his speed and ability to change directions quickly are reason to be hopeful.
42. Indianapolis Colts
Pick acquired from San Francisco
The pick: Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
Scouts take: Again, Indianapolis needs help on the defensive side of the ball so this is puzzling. In fact, the only logical reason for taking tackle is to start grooming a possible replacement for Tarik Glenn. Ugoh played in a run-heavy scheme at the collegiate level and he doesn’t project as a starting left tackle. The only other possibility is moving him inside but he doesn’t have ideal lower body strength for a guard.
43. Detroit Lions
Pick acquired from Buffalo
The pick: Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State
Scouts take:The Lions did well to get Stanton considering two quarterbacks had already gone in the round. Stanton doesn’t have elite arm strength or size but he is tough, moves well and can pick a defense part when he gets on a roll. He should play behind John Kitna for a year while he gets comfortable with the offense and develop a strong bond with first-round pick Calvin Johnson.
44. Minnesota Vikings
Pick acquired from Atlanta
The pick: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Scouts take: The Vikings needed a receiver and Rice has the potential to develop into a playmaker. He is fast enough to stretch the field and he does a nice job of adjusting to the ball while it’s in the air. With that in mind, this can’t be called a bad pick but there are concerns about Rice’s ability to excel at the NFL level. He doesn’t have great bulk and he is a little soft so he will get pushed around at times. That’s why USC WR Steve Smith may have been the better pick here.
45. Carolina Panthers
The pick: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Scouts take: Mentor finally gets to play with protégé, as Dwayne Jarrett joins Keyshawn Johnson in Carolina. The truth is receiver isn’t a great need for the Panthers but Jarrett is a great value here and, oddly enough, he could eventually replace Johnson when the times comes for him to step down. It makes because both make up for their lack of ideal speed with fluid route running and by using their wide frame to shield defenders from the ball.
46. Pittsburgh Steelers
The pick: LaMarrr Woodley, DE, Michigan
Scouts take: Getting an outside linebacker that can get to the passer appears to be so important to the Steelers that they picked up two with their first two selections. Woodley’s stock dropped during the offseason, but he projected as a first-round pick at the end of the season and for good reason. He has good initial quickness, can shed blocks quickly and shows good closing speed once he turns the corner. The only concern is he has to work on his cover skills so he isn’t going to play an every-down role at outside linebacker in the 3-4 scheme any time soon.
47.New York Jets
Pick acquired from Green Bay
The pick: David Harris, LB, Michigan
Scouts take: The Jets seem to be a completely different team in terms of the draft since Eric Mangini took over as the head coach. After jumping up to get Darrelle Revis in the first round, they jumped again to draft Harris. Harris doesn’t cover as well as Patrick Willis and he will need to be protected at times, but he is a stout run defender who rarely gets caught out of position and delivers some big hits. Just the idea of him lining up opposite Jonathan Vilma should keep opposing ball carriers up at night.
48. Jacksonville Jaguars
The pick: Justin Durant, LB, Hampton
Scouts take: The Jaguars reached for Durant because there are a number of higher rated prospects at outside linebacker, but they have addressed two of their top three needs. Though Durant has the athletic ability and explosiveness to develop into a quality starter, he is a small-school prospect so his ability to adjust to the speed of the game at the NFL level remains to be seen.
49. Cincinnati Bengals
The pick:Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
Scouts take: Irons is a good value here because he runs hard between the tackles and he’s fast enough to break some long runs. His lack of size won’t be as much of a concern in Cincinnati because he will share caries with Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. However, it’s important to note that the Bengals need an outside linebacker and a receiver so they didn’t fill any kind of a hole here.
50. Tennessee Titans
The pick: Chris Henry, RB, Arizona
Scouts take: With LenDale White having problems keeping his weight down and former Titan Travis Henry now wit Denver, the Titans needed a running back and Chris Henry has great upside. He possesses a rare bend of size and speed. With that said, Tennessee has yet to pick up a cornerback or a receiver and they are hurting at both positions. In addition, Henry’s lack of experience at the collegiate level should raise some red flags and Michael Bush is still on the board.
51. New York Giants
The pick: Steve Smith, WR, USC
Scouts take: The Giants couldn’t have done much better than getting Smith here. He is an excellent route runner for such a young player, catches the ball and can produce after the catch. Smith should replace aging Amani Toomer and complement Plaxico Burress well. Perhaps more importantly, he gives Eli Manning another legitimate target.
52. St. Louis Rams
The pick: Brian Leonard, FB, Rutgers
Scouts take: The Rams could have been better served taking a linebacker here because it’s a more pressing need. On the other hand, Leonard is a good choice here and they also need a back that can back Jackson up because undersized free agent signing Travis Minor is strictly a situational back. Leonard can pick up the tough yards between the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield and line up at fullback at times.
53. Cleveland Browns
Pick acquired from Dallas
The pick: Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
Scouts take: From a talent standpoint, the Browns continue to have one of the strongest drafts. They have also addressed up some of the biggest weaknesses on the roster. Wright has the confidence, speed and quick feet to quickly emerge as a quality starting corner as a rookie. So why has he lasted so long? No player has more baggage in terms of character concerns than Wright so teams have been hesitant to pull the trigger. As a result, this looks like a boom or bust pick at this point.
54. Kansas City Chiefs
The pick: Turk McBride, DT, Tennessee
Scouts take: The Chiefs needed a defensive tackle and Turk McBride projected as a second round pick heading into today because he has the quickness to regularly disrupt plays in the backfield. However, it’s not a great fit. Kansas City’s priority should have been improving a mediocre run defense and McBride lacks the size to clog up the middle.
55. Seattle Seahawks
The pick: Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland
Scouts take: Kelly Herndon is a marginal No.2 cornerback who isn’t getting any younger so the Seahawks were wise to bring in Wilson. Wilson is a bit or a reach because he doesn’t have great size and he is inconsistent but he is still one of the best corners available. He’s fast enough to run with most any receiver and he is tough against the run for player his size.
56. Denver Broncos
The pick: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
Scouts take: After taking Moss in the first round, Denver could have filled this need by taking a receiver or a linebacker. On the other hand, Crowder is a sound second round selection. He is a high-motor player with great speed for his size and sound instincts. Though he isn’t as explosive as Moss, he is bigger so he has a better chance of developing into an every-down player.
57. Philadelphia Eagles
The pick: Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
Scouts take: While the Eagles still needing help at safety and corner, getting a defensive end was also on the to-do list this weekend because Javon Kearse and Darren Howard are aging and have underachieved. Abiamari lacks ideal top-end speed and has some problems holding his ground when teams run at him, but he has the strong upper body to keep blockers off him and the quick feet to develop a wide variety of pass rush moves.
58. Detroit Lions
Pick acquired from New Orleans
The pick: Ikaika Alma-Francis, DE, Hawaii
Scouts take:Alma-Francis is coming off a season-ending pectoral injury and he is raw so he will have to work on his technique. While he has the size and quickness to develop into an effective starter in time, the Lions have more pressing needs than end and adding a linebacker or possibly a cornerback makes a little more sense here.
59. Carolina Panthers
Pick acquired from New York Jets
The pick: Ryan Kalil, OC, USC
Scouts take:The bottom line is a team can’t go wrong by taking Kalil at this point. While Justin Hartwig is an adequate starter, Kalil represents an upgrade and could emerge as one of the best centers in the league. He is a technician who gets into good position and he’s strong enough to drive defenders off the ball when he gets under their pads. His pass blocking is just as strong if not better because he has excellent quickness and he has the quick feet to counter when defenders throw double moves at him.
60. Miami Dolphins
Pick acquired from New England
The pick: Samson Satele, OC, Hawaii
Scouts take: Satele is versatile enough to line up anywhere along the offensive line but he fits best at center and the Dolphins’ greatest need at offensive tackle. If they do indeed move him to tackle, defensive ends should have success exposing his lack of ideal lower body strength. In addition, he doesn’t have very long arms so he is going to have problems riding edge rushers past the pocket. In other words, this is a questionable pick.
61. Detroit Lions
Pick acquired from Baltimore
The pick: Gerald Alexander, S, Boise State
Scouts take: Although Alexander rarely makes mistakes when dropping into coverage, fills hard when he reads run and is versatile enough to line up at safety or corner, he doesn’t have great size or speed. In fact, he projects as a sub-package defensive back who makes his biggest contributions on special teams. Why not take DS Josh Gattis or DC/DS Tenard Jackson here? Both would have been better values.
62. Chicago Bears
Pick acquired from San Diego
The pick: Dan Bazuin, DE, Central Michigan
Scouts take: Bazuin is a good pick for the Bears’ Cover-2 schemes because he has the burst to turn the corner and can deliver the big hit when he gets to the quarterback but this is too much of a reach. First off, he doesn’t have great size and he will struggle when teams run at him. Secondly, he had a disappointing senior season and didn’t play in one of the premiere conferences. As a result, there are some concerns about ability to produce working against a considerably higher level of competition.
63. Green Bay Packers
Pick acquired from Chicago through New York Jets
The pick: Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska
Scouts take: The Packers lost out on the Marshawn Lynch sweepstakes so they were wise to take a back here. Only problem is they took the wrong back. On the positive side, Jackson is a balanced runner who bounces of arm tackles and can make defenders miss. On the negative side, he doesn’t have ideal size or speed for a primary back. With Michael Bush and Tony Hunt still waiting for calls, Green Bay probably should have taken one of them.
64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick acquired from Indianapolis
The pick: Sabby Piscitelli, S, Oregon State
Scouts take: DC Daymeion Hughes is a perfect fit for the Cover-2 and would have been a strong pick here Piscatelli, on the other hand, doesn’t have the range to cover the deep half of the field. He’s tough against the run and can make plays in coverage but he just isn’t fast enough to excel in this scheme. In fact, some draft experts thought Piscatelli would have to move to outside linebacker to make it in the NFL.
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| Saturday, April 28, 2007 |
The Carolina Panthers selected Miami linebacker Jon Beason with the 24th pick.
What the Experts Say:
Scout.com Profile:
Player Evaluation: Showing a lot of ability during his short time as a starting linebacker, Beason has the size and speed to be a starter on the weak side.
STRENGTHS: Athleticism, Change of Direction, Foot Quickness
AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT: Shedding Ability
Biography: Former fullback who moved to linebacker as a sophomore and has started the past two seasons. Led the team in tackles as a senior posting 76/8/1.5, also intercepting one pass. Junior totals included 64 tackles. Competes on the school’s track team.
Pos: Terrific athlete with a good degree of upside potential. Breaks down well, plays with excellent balance and rarely off his feet. Explosive up the field, slides laterally to make plays and is effective in pursuit. Takes good angles to the action and covers a great amount of area on the field. Breaks down well, immediately alters his angle of attack and is disciplined with assignments. Hard-hitting, and aggressively puts his shoulders into ball handlers.
Neg: Easily handled at the point once engaged in a block, and is very slow to get back to playing form off the initial hit.
UPDATE Scouts.inc:
The Panthers probably would have liked to have gotten an inside linebacker or a safety but the value just wasn’t there. Another option was tight end and Greg Olsen is still on the board so Carolina could have done slightly better here. It’s tough to be critical of the pick however. Beason is an excellent value at this point in the first round and he is more than capable of pushing Na’il Diggs for playing time on the weak side.
The Panthers will likely work on his cover skills but he has a great bend of instincts, quickness and tenacity. It’s also worth noting that Beason has adequate size and the frame to get even bigger so there’s a chance Carolina considers moving him inside if MLB Dan Morgan can’t stay healthy.
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| Saturday, April 28, 2007 |
The New York Jets traded up from the 25th spot to take cornerback Darrelle Revis. They sent Carolina their 1st, 2nd, and 5th round picks for this pick and Carolina’s 6th. That’s pretty pricey but Revis is an outstanding value at the 14 spot.
What the Experts Say:
Scout.com Profile:
Impacting the game at both cornerback and as a return specialist, Revis offers terrific size/speed and ability for the next level. A first-round choice with starting potential who should immediately help returning punts.
 Biography: Three-year starter awarded All-Conference honors every season since his sophomore campaign. Defensive numbers last season were 39/2/4, when he also averaged 8.6 yards on 22 punt returns, with one score. Sophomore totals were 41/4/13 with an 11.6 yard average on 28 punt returns.
Pos: Well-rounded defensive back with outstanding upside. Jams opponents at the line, slows their release off the snap and plays strong at the point of attack. Fast pedaling in reverse, is fluid in transition and runs with opponents everywhere on the field. Displays a sense of timing, stays with receivers out from their breaks and quickly closes to the action. Displays soft hands for the interception. Impacts the games returning punts, showing both elusiveness and speed.
Neg: Soft in the underneath coverage and occasionally gives up some easy receptions in front of him.
UPDATE Scouts.inc:
With both of the top two corners available and the Jets’ top need a corner, they decided to pull the trigger on the day’s first trade and pick up Revis. Although Revis can take too long to change directions at times and has some problems matching up with explosive slot receivers, he is still a first-round talent. More importantly, his instincts should him an excellent fit for head coach Eric Mangini’s defensive schemes and he is a playmaker than can make a difference.
He could also make an impact as a punt return man, which is probably one of the bigger reasons the Jets chose Revis over Leon Hall. Another reason may be Revis’ fluidity. He does a slightly better job of opening his hips when he’s forced to turn and run downfield so he’s less likely to get beat deep when left on an island.
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| Friday, April 27, 2007 |
The ultimate guides to the NFL draft are produced by Rick “Goose” Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News and ESPN’s Mel Kiper. Gosselin’s is the best, in my judgment, because it’s compiled by consulting the people who actually make the decisions: the scouts and general managers. He’s put out his top 100 prospects. Here are the top 40, which should theoretically take us well through the first round:
| 1-10 |
| Rank, player |
Position |
School |
| 1. Calvin Johnson |
WR |
Ga. Tech |
| Gosselin on Johnson: Since the NFL opened the door to underclassmen in 1990, juniors have gone first overall in 10 of 17 drafts. Come Saturday, make it 11 times. The Oakland Raiders are likely to select either LSU QB JaMarcus Russell or Johnson with the first overall choice. Both are skipping their senior seasons. It also will be the third consecutive draft an underclassman has gone first overall, following QB Alex Smith in 2005 (San Francisco) and DE Mario Williams in 2006 (Houston). A record 15 underclassmen were selected in the first round in 2005. Seventeen juniors carry potential first-round grades into this draft. At 6-5, 239 pounds with 4.35 speed in the 40, Johnson is the best of the bunch. |
| 2. Adrian Peterson |
HB |
Oklahoma |
| 3. JaMarcus Russell |
QB |
LSU |
| 4. Joe Thomas |
OT |
Wisconsin |
| 5. Brady Quinn |
QB |
Notre Dame |
| 6. Gaines Adams |
DE |
Clemson |
| 7. LaRon Landry |
S |
LSU |
| 8. Darrelle Revis |
CB |
Pittsburgh |
| 9. Levi Brown |
OT |
Penn St. |
| 10. Leon Hall |
CB |
Michigan |
| 11-20 |
| Rank, player |
Position |
School |
| 11. Jamaal Anderson |
DE |
Arkansas |
| 12. Patrick Willis |
MLB |
Mississippi |
| 13. Adam Carriker |
DE |
Nebraska |
| 14. Marshawn Lynch |
HB |
California |
| 15. Lawrence Timmons |
OLB |
Florida St. |
| 16. Robert Meachem |
WR |
Tennessee |
| 17. Reggie Nelson |
S |
Florida |
| Gosselin on Nelson: Since 1967, when the AFL and NFL merged drafts, there have never been four safeties taken in a first round. That could change with LaRon Landry, Nelson, Michael Griffin and Brandon Meriweather all toting first-round grades. The search is on for safeties with ball skills, and Nelson is coming off a six-interception season for the national champions. "His nickname is the Eraser," Florida CB Reggie Lewis said. "If I got in a situation where I was beaten, I knew I had the Eraser back there. With Reggie behind me, I knew I didn’t have any problems." |
| 18. Ben Grubbs |
G |
Auburn |
| 19. Ted Ginn Jr. |
WR |
Ohio St. |
| 20. Joe Staley |
OT |
C. Michigan |
| 21-30 |
| Rank, player |
Position |
School |
| 21. Amobi Okoye |
DT |
Louisville |
| 22. Aaron Ross |
CB |
Texas |
| 23. Jarvis Moss |
DE |
Florida |
| 24. Jon Beason |
OLB |
Miami-Fla. |
| Gosselin on Beason: The Hurricanes are no longer a college football power, but they remain a dominant force every April. They’ve had first-round selections in 12 consecutive NFL drafts, the longest current streak among the colleges. The next longest streak is five by Oklahoma. Miami also has had 22 players selected in the first round this decade – 10 more than runner-up Florida State. The Hurricanes can pad both totals with three potential first-round draft picks: Beason, S Brandon Meriweather and TE Greg Olsen. Beason has been compared to ex-teammate Jonathan Vilma, a No. 1 pick by the Jets in 2004. A bit undersized (6-0, 237), Beason packs a heavyweight’s punch in a middleweight’s body. |
| 25. Dwayne Bowe |
WR |
LSU |
| 26. Michael Griffin |
S |
Texas |
| 27. Paul Posluszny |
MLB |
Penn St. |
| 28. Justin Harrell |
DT |
Tennessee |
| 29. David Harris |
MLB |
Michigan |
| 30. Brandon Meriweather |
S |
Miami-Fla. |
| 31-40 |
| Rank, player |
Position |
School |
| 31. Greg Olsen |
TE |
Miami-Fla. |
| 32. Anthony Gonzalez |
WR |
Ohio St. |
| 33. Alan Branch |
DT |
Michigan |
| 34. Anthony Spencer |
DE |
Purdue |
| 35. Chris Houston |
CB |
Arkansas |
| 36. Ryan Kalil |
C |
Southern Cal |
| 37. Trent Edwards |
QB |
Stanford |
| Gosselin on Edwards: The pre-draft hype focused on the two elite passers at the top of this board, LSU’s JaMarcus Russell and Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn. But three quality quarterbacks factor into the second round: Edwards, Drew Stanton of Michigan State and Kevin Kolb of Houston. All could go quickly. Edwards went 26-0 in his final two seasons at Los Gatos (Calif.) HS and set a state record by completing 78.1 percent of his passes as a junior. But he played on some terrible teams at Stanford, winning only 10 of his 31 starts. He also took a beating, missing time with shoulder, thumb and foot injuries. Still, he’s 6-4, 231 pounds with a big arm. The NFL loves measurables at quarterback. |
| 38. Arron Sears |
G |
Tennessee |
| 39. Dwayne Jarrett |
WR |
Southern Cal |
| 40. Drew Stanton |
QB |
Michigan St. |
For 41-100, see his guide.
Mel Kiper is the most famous of the draft geeks and he’s good. He lives and breathes the prospects and knows them better than almost anybody. But that doesn’t mean his opinion–even if it’s right–will match up with that of the GMs and scouts on draft day. Here are his final projections for the 1st round:
We’ll check back tomorrow to see who got closest. It’ll take four or five years to know whose picks were best.
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| Sunday, April 15, 2007 |
Rick Gosselin has put together his first NFL Mock Draft of the 2007 season. He got himself into the sportswriters wing of the NFL Hall of Fame doing these, so he’s worth paying attention to.
| Team |
Player |
Pos. |
School |
| 1. Oakland |
JaMarcus Russell |
QB |
LSU |
| 2. Detroit |
Adrian Peterson |
RB |
Oklahoma |
| Matt Millen has struggled with top-10 picks in his stint as general manager of the Lions. Peterson would be a safe and popular choice. Detroit had success using first-round picks on Oklahoma runners Steve Owens (1970) and Billy Sims (1980). |
| 3. Cleveland |
Calvin Johnson |
WR |
Georgia Tech |
| 4. Tampa Bay |
Brady Quinn |
QB |
Notre Dame |
| 5. Arizona |
Joe Thomas |
OT |
Wisconsin |
| 6. Washington |
Gaines Adams |
DE |
Clemson |
| 7. Minnesota |
LaRon Landry |
S |
LSU |
| 8. Atlanta |
Leon Hall |
CB |
Michigan |
| 9. Miami |
Alan Branch |
DT |
Michigan |
| 10. Houston |
Amobi Okoye |
DT |
Louisville |
| 11. San Francisco |
Jamaal Anderson |
DE |
Arkansas |
| 12. Buffalo |
Marshawn Lynch |
RB |
California |
| 13. St. Louis |
Darrelle Revis |
CB |
Pittsburgh |
| 14. Carolina |
Patrick Willis |
LB |
Mississippi |
| 15. Pittsburgh |
Adam Carriker |
DE |
Nebraska |
| Carriker is the prototypical defensive end for a 3-4 scheme. But his true value lies is his versatility. With his size (6-6, 296), he can line up at any of the four positions along the defensive line. |
| 16. Green Bay |
Ted Ginn Jr. |
WR |
Ohio State |
| 17. Jacksonville |
Jarvis Moss |
DE |
Florida |
| 18. Cincinnati |
Reggie Nelson |
S |
Florida |
| 19. Tennessee |
Robert Meachem |
WR |
Tennessee |
| 20. N.Y. Giants |
Levi Brown |
OT |
Penn State |
| 21. Denver |
Lawrence Timmons |
LB |
Florida State |
| 22. Dallas |
Dwayne Bowe |
WR |
LSU |
| With two starting wide receivers in their 30s, the Cowboys need a young player to build a future downfield passing game for Tony Romo. Bowe is a physical receiver in the Michael Irvin mold. |
| 23. Kansas City |
Justin Harrell |
DT |
Tennessee |
| 24. New England |
Jon Beason |
LB |
Miami |
| 25. N.Y. Jets |
Aaron Ross |
CB |
Texas |
| 26. Philadelphia |
Chris Houston |
CB |
Arkansas |
| 27. New Orleans |
Dwayne Jarrett |
WR |
Southern California |
| 28. New England |
Michael Griffin |
S |
Texas |
| 29. Baltimore |
Joe Staley |
OT |
Central Michigan |
| 30. San Diego |
Anthony Gonzalez |
WR |
Ohio State |
| 31. Chicago |
Paul Posluszny |
LB |
Penn State |
| 32. Indianapolis |
Greg Olsen |
TE |
Miami |
|
| Sunday, February 4, 2007 |
At the beginning of the NFL season, I compiled a list of 2006 predictions from experts and from a panel of bloggers.
None of those surveyed hit a home run but some did reasonably well.
- Nobody picked a Bears-Colts matchup in the Super Bowl.
- Nobody picked the Bears to appear in, much less win, the Super Bowl.
- Several of us picked the Colts to win the Super Bowl: “Experts” Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt, Michael Wilbon and Adam Schefter and bloggers Mark Hasty and myself. Steven Taylor picked the Colts to appear in the Super Bowl and lose to the Dallas Cowboys.
The worst preseason picks:
- ESPN’s team of experts picked the Carolina Panthers to beat the Miami Dolphins in the Super Bowl. Neither team made the playoffs.
- The worst blogger prognosticator was Bill Jempty, who had the Cincinnati Bengals beating the New York Giants.
Again, neither team made the playoffs. The Panthers failed to make the playoffs and the Giants lost in the Wild Card round.
- Honorable mention: NFL.com expert Vic Caruci also picked the Carolina Panthers, who (as I may have mentioned) didn’t make the playoffs, to win the Super Bowl. He did not name their opponent.
It seems that the amateurs are about as good as the experts in predicting the outcome of long NFL seasons.
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At this point in the playoffs there are some interesting subplots to look at.
There’s not much history between Chicago and New Orleans at this level. (While Mike Tanier agrees that the Saints are the better story, he thinks that the Bears are the better team and will win.) However New England and Indianapolis have plenty of history between them in the past six seasons. Mike Tanier writes:
The lessons of history: Ancient scrolls tell us that Peyton Manning first faced a Bill Belichick-coached Patriots team in Week 6 of the 2000 season. Manning threw for 334 yards but was picked off three times, and the Patriots won 24-16. Two weeks later, the Patriots traveled to Indianapolis, and Manning threw three touchdowns in a 30-23 Colts win. At the time, any suggestion that Belichick or the Patriots “owned” the Colts would have been scoffed at. Then again, any suggestion that the 5-11 Patriots were a year away from the Super Bowl would also have been suitable for scoffing.
During that first Super Bowl run in 2001, the Patriots acquired their reputation as Manning killers. The Patriots swept the Colts and forced another three-interception effort from the normally unflappable Manning in one of the games. In 2002, the Colts moved out of the AFC East, but the two teams would find their destinies French-braided together in 2003. In Week 13 of that season, the Patriots out-dueled the Colts 38-34 in a game that ended with a goal-line tackle of Edgerrin James by Willie McGinest. When they met again in the AFC championship in New England, the contest wasn’t nearly as close: the Patriots built a 15-0 halftime lead and then coasted to a 24-14 win. Manning threw four picks and was sacked four times. The 2004 season brought another Patriots-Colts playoff battle, once again on an icy day in Foxboro. Manning had another substandard outing, and the Patriots won 20-3 en route to a third Super Bowl title.
But this isn’t just about how the two teams have played against one another. It’s also about Adam Vinatieri who left the Patriots as a free agent to play for the Colts. In his first decade as a pro, Vinatieri was an essential part of the Patriots’ dynasty. This is from his Wikipedia entry:
In the 2001 playoffs, during a blizzard against the Oakland Raiders in the final game at Foxboro Stadium, Vinatieri kicked a 45-yard field goal to tie the game 13-13 and send it into overtime. The Patriots then won the game on another field goal of 23 yards by Vinatieri. That 45-yard kick in driving snow is regarded as one of the greatest clutch plays (and greatest kicks) in NFL history.
In Super Bowl XXXVI he kicked a 48-yard field goal on the final play to give the New England Patriots their first Super Bowl victory, a 20-17 win over the St. Louis Rams. Two years later, and in an almost identical situation, he kicked a 41-yard field goal with 4 seconds left in Super Bowl XXXVIII to boost the Patriots to another championship (after missing one field goal and having another attempt blocked in the first half). This time, the Patriots defeated the Carolina Panthers, 32-29, making Vinatieri the first player ever to be the deciding factor in two Super Bowl games (Vinatieri kept the balls used on both those kicks).
While Vinatieri was instrumental in defeating the Ravens this past week, he didn’t decide a game with little time left. Will he defeat his old team this week? And if he does will it be as time runs out?
There are two compelling storylines remaining for the Super Bowl.
If the Colts and Saints play each other it will be the team whose greatest quarterback was Archie Manning playing against the team (meaning the IndianapolisJ) Colts whose greatest quarterback is his son Peyton. Archie Manning – a member of the College Football Hall of Fame – owns just about every passing record of the New Orleans Saints. His son Peyton is, arguably, the best player ever to play professional football in Indianapolis.
There’s one other interesting story here. As coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tony Dungy led that beleaguered franchise to some sustained success. For his inability to get them to the Super Bowl, though, he was fired and replaced by Jon Gruden. The Bucs won the Super Bowl the following year against (Gruden’s old team) the Raiders. That must have stung. Getting to the Super Bowl would be vindication for Dungy. The Bucs won the Super Bowl but subsequently haven’t been as good as the Colts.
The other interesting storyline for the Super Bowl would be a rematch of the Bears and Patriots from Super Bowl XX in 1986. That victory came at a time of Super Bowl dominance by the NFC in which that conference won 15 out of 16 Super Bowls. The dominance has shifted as the AFC has now won 7 out of the last 9 Super Bowls. If the Bears of Mike Ditka, Buddy Ryan, Jim McMahon, Walter Perry, Richard Dent and Walter Payton were prohibitive favorites 21 years ago; I’d have to think that the Bill Bellichik/Tom Brady Patriots of today would be as much of a lock this year.
The Bears – despite their dominance that year – haven’t returned to the Super Bowl since then. The Patriots are now hoping to return to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in eleven years.
UPDATE: EnnuiPundit previews the AFC and the NFC.
Crossposted at Soccer Dad.
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| Tuesday, December 26, 2006 |
Mickey Spagnola, reflecting on the Cowboys coming out flat at home against the Eagles and throwing away a chance to lock up the divisional title,
Good gosh, it’s beginning to look a lot like 2003.
[...]
So is this it? Is this who the Cowboys are in 2006? A team capable of beating only one team (Indianapolis) – for sure – that will finish with a winning record this season? (Tennessee at 8-7 has a chance.)
Is this who the Cowboys are? A team incapable of winning the big one, seeing that you would have to consider this game, the Saints game and those early-season games with the Eagles and Giants big games?
Bill Parcells said when he arrived, “You are what your record is.” If that’s the case, this is a pretty mediocre team.
10-6 and out in the first round of the playoffs in 2003. 6-10 in 2004. 9-7 in 2005 and missing the playoffs in both campaigns.
Now, 9-6 and 1-2 in the last two games. So, at best, this team is as good as 2003′s and maybe it’s no better than last year’s. And that’s after four years of picking his own groceries. I’d call that failure.
The team has the tools to beat any team in the league but they have not so far been able to string together many good performances. They could still win the NFC East with some help from the Falcons and still control their own destiny, since they’re guaranteed at least a wild card berth. Realistically, though, it’s hard to imagine them beating four good teams in a row to win a championship.
The play calling on offense has been simply awful and, despite spending virtually all their draft picks and free agency money on defense, that unit has been in steady decline. And this is a team with the #1 statistical defense in the league when Parcells got to town.
Four years is more than enough time to turn a team around. John Fox did it in Carolina in two, arguably with less to work with. Sean Payton–Parcells’ offensive coordinator his first three years in Dallas–has done it in one with the Saints. Still, I wouldn’t fire him just yet. It’s just too hard to start over, since new coaches tend to want to build a team around their vision, meaning that many of the draft picks in recent years no longer fit. Still, Parcells has failed to live up to his future Hall of Famer legend.
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| Monday, December 11, 2006 |
Steve Bainbridge has some interesting thoughts on yesterday’s games, which provides me a launching point for a broader discussion of a season that, 13 games into a 16 game regular season, is still hard to get a handle on.
Apropos the Saint’s whuppin’ on my Dallas Cowboys last night, in Dallas, Steve offers:
* The Saints are for real. Very real.
* Is Drew Brees having a once in a lifetime year or will he sustain this level of production for at least a few more years? My guess is the latter.
[...]
* Some people were in way too much of a hurry to annoint the Cowpunks and Tony Romo.
I think he’s right on Brees and the Saints and premature on the Cowboys and Romo. Even good teams have horribly bad games on occasion. For reasons I can’t fully explain, the wheels came off the Cowboys last night and getting behind early took them out of their game plan. There defense got exposed last night by a great offense but I am confident that Parcells and Zimmer will address it.
The Saints had the advantage of a head coach, defensive coordinator, and several players who were with the Cowboys the last three seasons; a few of the players were among Dallas’ final cuts this year. That gave them far more insights into the team’s weaknesses than you’d get from a couple days’ film study.
* UCLA alum/Jaguar rookie Maurice Jones-Drew has gained more yards, is averaging more yards per carry, has scored more TDs, is averaging more yards per reception, and has committed fewer fumbles than USC alum/Hesiman winner/Saints rookie Reggie Bush. Jones-Drew’s DPAR rank of 23rd also looks mighty good compared to Bush’s rank of 50th. In short, Bruins rule.
The Jags would trade Jones-Drew for Bush right now, no questions asked. Bush has gotten off to a slow start but has exploded the last two weeks.
* I’m not convinced by Eli Manning, Matt Leinart, or Vince Young, all of whom strike me as candidates for the Tim Couch Award, no matter what the Football Outsiders’ PFP claims. Ditto FO’s projections for Jason Campbell, whose 51% completion rate and DPAR score of -2.1 are stunningly unimpressive.
Manning is already much better than Couch ever was, although he is burdened with the expectations that come from being a Manning. Leinart and Young have looked pretty doggone good, frankly. I was in attendance at Young’s first start, a drubbing at the hands of my Cowboys in Nashville, but he’s come along quite nicely of late, having led his team to three straight wins.
It’s too early to say on Campbell, who is a rookie on what appears to be an incredibly inept offensive unit. Similarly, I understand a fan’s frustration here:
* If the Redskins can’t beat the Eagles with Jeff Garcia at the latter’s QB position, we might as well turn out the lights at Fed Ex Field.
But Garcia is a well-above-average NFL quarterback. He was a Pro Bowler with the 49ers until the team got caught in salary cap hell and has played journeyman from one bad team to the next.
* There’s no way the Colts make the Super Bowl with their rush defense. I just hope they make it to the AFC championship game so we can watch what LaDainian Tomlinson does to them in his house. But if they catch Jacksonville or New England in the playoff opener, they probably won’t even get that far.
* The Bears must secure home field advantage. I wouldn’t like their chances against the Saints in the Superdome. Conversely, I don’t see the Saints winning in Chicago, even with Rex Grossman playing QB for the Bears, unless global warming speeds up right now.
I predicted the Colts would go to the Super Bowl and had the Chargers backing into the playoffs as a Wild Card. Philip Rivers, though, has been the Real Deal.
Rex Grossman ain’t. I’m not sure Griese is better but he’s a least a veteran who can serve as a Parcells-style bus driver. Grossman’s license should be revoked.
I still have no real sense about a lot of teams on the playoff bubble:
*Panthers
*Giants
*Eagles
*Falcons
*Steelers
*Broncos
*Chiefs
All of these guys have the potential to win or lose on any given Sunday. Whether it’s parity or mediocrity, I can’t say. I’m not sure there’s a difference.
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| Saturday, November 18, 2006 |
Rick Gosselin lists the 25 semi-finalists for Canton:
Quarterbacks:
â– Ken Stabler, QB, 1970-79 Oakland Raiders, 1980-81 Houston Oilers, 1982-84 New Orleans Saints
Running backs:
â– Terrell Davis, RB, 1995-2001 Denver Broncos
â– Thurman Thomas, RB, 1988-99 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Miami Dolphins
Wide receivers:
â– Michael Irvin, WR, 1988-99 Cowboys
â– Art Monk, WR, 1980-93 Washington Redskins, 1994 New York Jets, 1995 Philadelphia Eagles
â– Andre Reed, WR, 1985-99 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins
Offensive linemen:
â– Dermontti Dawson, C, 1988-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers
â– Russ Grimm, G, 1981-91 Washington Redskins
Bob Kuechenberg, G, 1970-84 Miami Dolphins
â– Bruce Matthews, G/T/C, 1983-2001 Houston Oilers/Tennessee Oilers/Titans
â– Randall McDaniel, G, 1988-99 Minnesota Vikings, 2000-2001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
â– Gary Zimmerman, T, 1986-92 Minnesota Vikings, 1993-97 Denver Broncos
Defensive linemen:
â– Charles Haley, DE/LB, 1986-91, 1999 San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96 Cowboys
â– Fred Dean, DE, 1975-81 San Diego Chargers, 1981-85 San Francisco 49ers
â– Richard Dent, DE, 1983-93, 1995 Chicago Bears, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1996 Indianapolis Colts, 1997 Philadelphia Eagles
Linebackers:
â– Randy Gradishar, LB, 1974-83 Denver Broncos
â– Kevin Greene, LB/DE, 1985-92 Los Angeles Rams, 1993-95 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1996, 1998-99 Carolina Panthers, 1997 San Francisco 49ers
â– Derrick Thomas, LB, 1989-99 Kansas City Chiefs
â– Andre Tippett, LB, 1982-88, 1990-93 New England Patriots
Secondary:
â– Lester Hayes, CB, 1977-86 Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders
â– Roger Wehrli, CB, 1969-82 St. Louis Cardinals
Special teams:
â– Ray Guy, P, 1973-86 Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders
Contributors:
â– Paul Tagliabue, commissioner, 1989-2006 NFL
â– Art Modell, owner, 1961-95 Cleveland Browns, 1996-2003 Baltimore Ravens
â– George Young, GM, 1968-74 Baltimore Colts, 1975-78 Miami Dolphins, 1979-97 New York Giants, 1998-2001 NFL
The list will be narrowed to fifteen in January, then to six, with a minimum of three and a maximum of six making the final cut on the eve of the Super Bowl. Goose says the class is “considered soft because of the scarcity of quarterbacks and running backs.”
Indeed, while I think a dozen or more of these guys deserve to be in the Hall, Tagliabue is the only shoe-in among first-time eligibles. I think Bruce Matthews makes it on the first ballot, too, simply because of his incredible longevity. Then again, I can’t believe Charles Haley (he of the five Super Bowl rings), Michael Irvin (three rings and a dominant player on the Team of the 1990s), Ray Guy (the consensus Best. Punter. Ever.), and Lester Hayes have been passed over so many times.
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