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First the Miami Dolphins play a home game out of town, next up could be the Marlins.
Major League Baseball and Puerto Rican officials are working toward bringing the Marlins back to San Juan.
El Nuevo Dia reported discussions were underway to have the Marlins and Mets play a three-game series at Hiram Bithorn Stadium sometime next season. With Puerto Rican stars Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, the Mets would be an attractive opponent for the Marlins, who would be the home team.
Yet the Marlins could end up playing another opponent on the Caribbean island if the numbers aren’t right. The Marlins are prepared to give up three home games only if it’s financially worthwhile. Mets-Marlins games generally are among the best attended Dolphin Stadium.
What’s next? The Florida Panthers playing playing the New York Rangers in Bangkok, Rio de Janeiro, or Gaborone?(Capital of Botswana)
Moving a New York series to another location is a kick in the balls to those Marlins fans who attend these games. The money matters more than the team’s fans. Then that has been the Marlins’ history for ten years at least.
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| Tuesday, October 30, 2007 |
Let the Hot Stove begin. ESPN reports the essentials.
The Detroit Tigers made the first splash in baseball’s offseason as they addressed a pressing priority.
Again.
Detroit filled its No. 1 void Monday, acquiring shortstop Edgar Renteria and cash from the Atlanta Braves for two prospects.
Shortly after reaching the World Series last season, the Tigers pulled off the first major move when they traded for Gary Sheffield.
The two prospects ended up being 21-year old righthander Jair Jurrjens and 19-year old centerfielder Gorkys Hernandez.
What a coup for Atlanta. Even without John Schuerholz in the GM chair, the Braves are still well aware of players’ expiration dates. Ever a hallmark of Schuerholz’ trades, the Braves always seemed to know just when to move a player. Renteria fit a need on a contender who was awash with young arms, just what the Braves need. Hernandez meanwhile has speed to burn, good doubles power and the potential to blossom into a very good centerfielder.
Wren noted that the Braves had other moves to make. One of course will be installing Yunel Escobar as the full-time starting shortstop. In one move, the Braves just got a lot younger. The National League East should be on notice. The Braves may have missed the post season in each of the last two years, they are on their way back to contention.
In Motown, however, the story is contending with an aging core of known veteran players – familiar ones at that, to GM Dave Dombrowski and Manager Jim Leyland. Their last two big offseason acquisitions (Sheffield and Renteria) were playing for Leyland and Dombrowski in 1997 when they, as Marlins, were World Series Champions.
Age must be a concern at some point. Of Tigers position players, only centerfielder Curtis Ganderson is under 30. Top prospect Cameron Maybin showed he was not quite ready for the majors in his debut this past fall. Meanwhile Pudge Rodriguez is 36. Magglio Ordonez is 34. Sheffield is 39 and the Tigers offense is old, in a dangerous position for decline.
Their pitching is young however, with fireballers Justin Verlander, Andrew Miller and Jeremy Bonderman heading a deep rotation and Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney at the back of the bullpen. Only Rodney is over thirty. They can contend with these pitchers in the near term and continue to patch the lineup with veteran replacements for another couple of years.
Short term, this deal benefits the Tigers more, who may be able to make it back to the World Series in 2008, but long term this is a real steal for the Braves.
As I’ve said before, umpires need help. And I refer you to a piece I wrote over a year ago on this very same subject. Baseball (and sports in general) is far behind the times in utilizing modern technology where it can, specifically to improve officiating.
I’ve thought about this topic for a long time. I think Questec is a good thing. (For those who dont know, it’s a computerized system that measures ball & strikes, and compares it to what the umpire actually called.)
One of the biggest and most frustrating problems in pro sports are bad calls by umps/refs. What I’d like to see is the steady removal of the so-called ‘human error’ from sports; I’ll talk specifically about baseball:
When umps are unsure when a ball is fair or foul down the line, why can’t a system be installed like they use in tennis? They could use technology to determine whether balls are just that, fair or foul.
Also, on disputed HRs, they must use instant replay. There’s no other fair way. An ump should be stationed in the park somewhere near a TV, like in the NHL. He should have the final word, since he’ll have access to the replay.
On balls and strikes, why not use Questec or ESPN’s ‘K-Zone’ (for example) to actually call the strikes? The only problem is that strike zone height is different for every hitter, but width is exactly the same, 17 inches (the width of homeplate). Rickey Henderson had a smaller up/down zone because he was short and crouched, and Richie Sexson’s up/down zone is bigger because he’s 6’8″. But their side-to-side zone is exactly the same. Therefore, computers/technology should be used to tell an umpire when a ball hits the plate or just misses. For the time being, umps will still need to call the up/down pitches (because every hitter is different), but will know for sure when a pitch crosses the corner or not. Or an ump could be assigned to determine the upper limit of each hitter’s strike zone dependent on his stance.
It also sucks when a pitcher throws a strike, but it’s not where he meant to throw it, the catcher has to reach for it, so the ump automatically calls it a ball. It doesn’t matter where the pitcher MEANT to throw the ball, it only matters whether it’s a strike or a ball.
For out/safe calls, when the closest ump feels the play is too close to call, he could send it to the ‘booth ump.’ TV technology is such today that it could be done in 30-60 seconds. Or (ala the NFL) managers should have two replays to use per game.
These steps would help legitimize the officiating and would make for fewer arguments from players and managers. You can’t argue with Questec strikes – it’s 100% consistent and 0% prejudiced (for veterans, or against rookies). Instant replay would also ensure the right call, and isn’t that worth waiting (at most) 60 seconds for – especially in close and/or playoff games?
He was demoted back to the minor leagues in May. From the Sun-Sentinel-
Nine and half months after throwing a no-hitter and getting a triumphant ride on his teammates’ shoulders, Anibal Sanchez must start over.
The Venezuelan right-hander learned Thursday he would miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.
Alabama-based orthopedic surgeon James Andrews operated on Sanchez, who will not resume throwing for 3-4 months. The hope is he will be ready for the start of spring training.
It’s the second major surgery for Sanchez, 23, in five seasons. He missed all of 2003 in the Red Sox minor league system after undergoing nerve-transposition surgery on his throwing elbow.
Sanchez went 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA in six starts this year. His final outing was May 2 in New York, and he was optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque two days later.
As a Marlins rookie in 2006, he went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA after a June promotion. He never threw more than 114 pitches and on Sept. 6 against Arizona became the fourth Marlins pitcher to throw a no-hitter.
23 years old and already needing to have his throwing arm operated on twice does not bode well for a long MLB career. Still because of his no-hitter, Anibal Sanchez has gotten himself a little bit of baseball immortality.
The second year pitcher was demoted on Friday-
The team optioned Anibal Sanchez to Class AAA Albuquerque on Friday, two days after the shortest outing of his brief career.
“He wasn’t the same as he was last year,” manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “We need to get him straightened out for his own good and also for the team.”
Sanchez, 23, is 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA. He has pitched 30 innings in six starts and has posted 19 walks and 14 strikeouts. He allowed seven hits, three runs and four walks in just 31/3 innings Wednesday in a loss to the Mets in New York. He went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA and finished ninth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season.
Gonzalez and pitching coach Rick Kranitz said Sanchez was unhappy with the team’s decision.
Sanchez has several issues, Kranitz said. They include the command of his pitches, his work tempo, a tendency to become too predictable, an inability to adjust to hitters, and a slight mechanical flaw that keeps him from throwing on a downhill plane, like he did last season.
“He’s throwing too many pitches,” Kranitz said. “He’ll get ahead 0-2, and then it’s 3-2. And he’s thrown blocks of four balls in a row.”
Sanchez is scheduled to start for the Isotopes on Tuesday against Portland, Ore. Kranitz does not believe Sanchez will spend much time in New Mexico.
“I have no doubt in my mind he will come back up here, whether it’s after two or three or four starts, and he will be better,” Kranitz said. “This will make him better.”
Sanchez pitched a no-hitter for the Marlins last September. In 1953, rookie Bobo Holloman pitched a no-hitter for the Philadelphia Athletics in his his first ML start. Two months later, Holloman was shipped to the minors. He never made it back to the majors. I think Sanchez will be back, as to future effectiveness, I’d only be guessing. His poor control isn’t a good omen.
I know these are late. I had these donw before the season the started but didn’t have the time to transfer them from paper to the CPU before the season started. But due to popular demand I will post the NL stat predictions I made prior to the season starting. To make it easier on myself I will just post the most notable players and not do it by team and lineup spot.
Here are the NL East hitters:
Moises Alou .293-17-68-2-60
Alfredo Amezaga .254-3-20-23-49
Willy Aybar .282-6-33-3-37
Rod Barajas .249-15-47-0-41
Carlos Beltran .282-36-114-21-129
Aaron Boone .253-8-40-6-37
Joe Borchard .238-9-26-2-31
Pat Burrell .262-30-98-0-84
Miguel Cabrera .319-35-114-6-108
Ryan Church .279-14-62-12-67
Matt Diaz .287-8-36-4-41
Carlos Delgado .278-34-118-0-92
Damion Easly .248-7-33-2-33
Rob Fick .271-7-33-1-29
Jeff Francoeur .276-32-106-4-88
Shawn Green .280-19-71-6-73
Christian Guzman .244-3-38-14-51
Wes Helms .280-21-72-0-60
Ryan Howard .307-49-131-0-108
Mike Jacobs .271-28-86-1-67
Andruw Jones .276-45-126-6-109
Chipper Jones .310-28-93-6-95
Kelly Johnson .273-14-59-8-79
Nick Johnson .288-13-45-3-51 (DL)
Austin Kearns .273-23-83-8-78
Paul LoDuca .297-7-56-3-78
Felipe Lopez .279-12-58-43-92
Brian McCann .291-25-86-2-63
Lastings Milledge .256-6-29-5-33
David Newhan .266-4-26-5-29
Miguel Olivo .256-14-50-3-47
Hanley Ramirez .284-16-56-54-105
Edgar Renteria .289-15-67-16-98
Jose Reyes .304-16-79-60-124
Jimmy Rollins .279-20-72-41-124
Aaron Rowand .278-16-71-18-92
Scott Thorman .269-19-71-1-60
Dan Uggla .272-20-78-5-86
Chase Utley .306-34-109-13-120
Jose Valentin .247-15-52-4-59
Shane Victorino .282-11-59-17-77
Jayson Werth .265-12-39-8-44
Josh Willingham .279-28-81-1-70
Craig Wilson .259-14-46-1-45
David Wright .308-27-114-19-108
Dimitri Young .248-8-38-2-32
Ryan Zimmerman .296-22-98-10-83
*Key players in bold
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| Sunday, April 1, 2007 |
In reference to an article by Clark Spence in the April 1st edition of MiamiHerald.com on Miguel Cabrera, I wanted to take the deeper look. The good folks at Baseball-reference.com have a database that lists the following players as ‘Most Similar’* of Cabrera for each of the three years he’s been in the league by age. Therefore, in his first season, at age 21, the player who had the most historically similar season to Miguel at age 21 was Hank Aaron in 1955.
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At 21Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â At 22Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â At 23
Hank Aaron        Hank Aaron        Hank Aaron
Ruben Sierra      Frank Robinson  Orlando Cepeda
Sam Crawford    Orlando Cepeda  Frank Robinson
Dick Kokos        Tony Caligliaro     Joe Medwick
Mickey Mantle     Mickey Mantle     Mickey Mantle
Joe Medwick       Joe Medwick       Andruw Jones
Whitey Lockman Hal Trosky          Ken Griffey, Jr.
Mike Tiernan      Ken Griffey, Jr.   Hal Trosky
Andruw Jones   Albert Pujols       Vladimir Guerrero
Greg Luzinski    Cesar Cedeno     Al Kaline
There are obviously a number of interesting ways you can begin to compare players of different eras, but believing the numbers as interpreted the most interesting dissimilarity between these players and Cabrera is that it appears Cabrera will play at 3B for a number of seasons. Of the top 10 prospects listed in the Marlins system by Baseball America only Chris Coghlan plays 3b. He was ranked 9th in the system in an article by Mike Berardino. Last year Coghlan split time between the Gulf Coast League Marlins (Rookie) and Jamestown (A) – he played 30 games and hit .297/.373/.372 with 0 HR. In three years at Univ. of Mississippi he played in 189 games, hit over .350 twice and hit 13 HR. Baseball America notes Coghlan playes “3b/2b†and he certainly does not seem to have the power stroke yet – if ever – to play the hot corner.
While Spence discusses the comparisons to other players hitting stats he does not mention any other player’s positions. Of the players above only Cepeda (1B), Trosky (1B), and Pujols (1B/3B) had a primary position that was not in the outfield. Of the 571 games Cabrera has appeared in he has played 348 in the outfield and 221 at 3B, he appeared as a designated hitter in 2 games as well. While defensive prowess is clearly not at the forefront of Spence’s article – the only mention of position made in the whole article is noting that Cabrera was an ‘18 year-old shortstop’ – it is interesting that there are no 3b to compare him with.
Other ‘slugging’ 3b like Mike Schmidt and George Brett had their breakout seasons after the age of 23. In 1974 at 24 Schmidt hit .282/.395/.546 with 36 HR; in 1979 at 24 Brett hit .312/.373/.532 with 22 HR.
It is worth noting that both Brett and Schmidt had played in the majors for a number of seasons before their ‘breakout’ years. If Cabrera is still in search of his ‘breakout’ it may be a season for the ages.
3b is changing. As SS has evolved from Ozzie Smith to Miguel Tejada, the other infield positions are also seeing power jumps. While Cabrera is certainly putting up numbers that would seem ‘hall worthy’ – a shift in the type of players at the position may change who and what is required for entrance.
*As is written on baseballreference.com:
Similarity scores are not my concept. Bill James introduced them nearly 15 years ago, and I lifted his methodology from his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To this there is a positional adjustment. Each position has a value, and you subtract the difference between the two players position. James just uses primary position, but I computed an average position for players who had more than one primary position.
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The Miami city commission voted yesterday on a plan to build the Florida Marlins a new baseball stadium.
Miami city commissioners on Thursday unanimously endorsed a nonbinding $490 million financing plan for a new Florida Marlins stadium, while the push for a downtown location for the facility continued to lose steam.
Commissioners, following similar action by county leaders earlier this week, approved the preliminary stadium funding plan but removed a portion of it that named a nine-acre piece of public land adjacent to downtown’s Government Center complex as the top location choice. The question of where to build is left unsettled in the plan.
Criticisms of the downtown site have included its relatively small size and the fact that it would complicate efforts to build a children’s courthouse and Miami police training facility/specialized public high school on the same land.
”The downtown site looked good. However, I think that other sites in Miami, including the Orange Bowl, could be very good sites,” City Manager Pete Hernandez told city commissioners. Hernandez asked commissioners to endorse the work-in-progress stadium plan on Thursday so it could be presented to state lawmakers in Tallahassee.
The stadium proposal, despite considerable contributions from both city and county governments, still has a $30 million funding gap. Major League Baseball and local elected officials are hoping the Legislature will close that gap by granting a sales tax rebate.
Thursday’s vote sends a message to the state Capitol that ”the city of Miami wants the Marlins in Miami,” Hernandez said.
The Orange Bowl site, which has been the subject of talks for years but has stalled in the past, is now heavily in play again. Its fate may hinge on whether the University of Miami moves its football games from there to Dolphin Stadium, something UM is considering. The school is expected to make a decision within two months.
Logistically speaking, Hernandez said building a Marlins stadium at the Orange Bowl would likely be easier than building downtown, though he declined to rule out the downtown site.
TFM has been opposed to using public money for a Marlins stadium all along. I say if they Marlins ownership doesn’t like Dolphins stadium, build your own or move.
Now yesterday’s vote really means little but may not be a good sign. Another half billion dollars could be spent on a sports stadium and one in Miami’s downtown area. We all know how well the Miami Arena worked to revitalize that area.
Alex at SOTP raises a good point about the proposed Orange Bowl site.
Let me tell you why an Orange Bowl location blows.
By putting the stadium in Little Havana, you have essentially lost your Broward and Palm Beach audience. I live in South Broward and let me tell you, the last thing I want to do is try to drive to the OB during rush hour. Most of the evening games start at around 7 which means patrons from Broward and Palm Beach would be driving down I-95, the Palmetto, the Turnpike or the even more nightmarish secondary roads of Miami-Dade County anywhere from 5 to 7 PM. No way is that going to happen. Weekends are obviously a little different but still, Broward and Palm Beach drivers will have to drive deep into Miami-Dade County instead of hopping off the turnpike at the county line.
There are no mass transit alternatives to take you to an OB stadium location like there would be at a downtown location. And the people who would love to grab a bite to eat after work and then wander over to a downtown stadium and catch a game before heading home will not even consider jumping in their car to battle their way over to the OB.
Yes siree, only a complete masochist dedicated baseball fans will want to make the drive through hellish Miami traffic to the OB area. The same applies to downtown also. Building a baseball stadium in either area is simply insane.
The team has just had its first signifigant injury of the 2007 season.
JUPITER — Marlins right-hander Josh Johnson was diagnosed with an irritated ulna nerve that will keep him out for at least the first two months of the season.
“I just know now so I can put it on a timetable,” Johnson said Tuesday. “It’s better but I’m still in the same position, I guess.”
The best scenario has Johnson, who was penciled in as the No. 2 starter, throwing in a month and returning to the mound around June 1. He will continue to condition and go through all non-throwing drills.
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A nerve specialist examined Johnson for 45 minutes Monday. Previous MRI exams and bone scans ruled out any stress fractures or ligament damage. The pain is on the inside of Johnson’s right arm just above the elbow.
Johnson was 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA last season. He finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting.
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Johnson was told his injury is similar to that of Brad Penny, who was shelved for most of the final two months of the 2004 season after being traded from Florida to the Dodgers. Penny pitched two innings on Aug. 8 and then returned for a three-inning stint Sept. 22 before shutting it down for the rest of the season.
Certainly a blow for the Marlins’ who have high hopes going into the season. What effect long-term this injury will have on Johnson is the big unknown. Sabermetrician Bill James was always good pointing out that the pitchers with long and or Hall of Fame careers almost all started out in the majors as nothing special. In other words, young arms are more likely to suffer serious career ending arm injuries. Will Johnson be the next in a long line of these type of pitchers?
On Valentine’s Day, the love comes out for the greatest game in the world -
Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter: “I think because everybody can relate. You don’t have to be seven feet tall; you don’t have to be a certain size to play. Baseball is up and down. I think life’s like that sometimes, you know. Back and forth, up and down, you’re going through this grind. I think people like watching it. Baseball’s like a soap opera every day.”
Ernie Banks, Cubs legend and Hall of Famer: “It’s just life. When I think about baseball, it’s just life. It’s really the way life is. It requires a lot of mental capacity to be involved in it. It creates a lot of joy for people and memories for people who follow it. It’s a family. You like it because it’s a family. You started with it and know all these people — it’s family, it’s friends, it’s fun, it’s a beautiful game. All in all, baseball is amazing.
Joel Kweskin, 56, White Sox fan based in Charlotte, N.C.: “It’s unique unto itself. Football, basketball and hockey are variations of the same concept — back and forth in a linear progression to score a goal. Baseball, however, is mapped out on the field unlike any other sport. A running back or return specialist can run 100 yards, tops; a baserunner legging out an inside-the-park homer runs 20 yards farther. Baseball is the most democratic of sports — any size can play, and because the ball is not controlled by the offense but rather the defense, every player at any given time is involved in a play. Along with the anecdotally accepted premise that hitting a pitched baseball is the single most difficult thing to do in sports, so might be fielding a 175-mph line drive or grounder down the line. I love baseball because it is the greatest game ever invented.”
Former Royals star Willie Wilson: “The first thing is, I don’t think there’s any criteria for size, so anybody can play. I think people can relate. A lot of people never played football; basketball, you’ve gotta be tall and be able to jump. But baseball is a game where you pick up a bat and a ball, and you catch it, you swing the bat and you hit the ball. Most people have played softball or some kind of baseball, so they can relate to the sport. For me, that’s why I think America just embraces baseball, man.”
Baseball Blogger Travis G.: Where to start? I think better when I make a list.
1. Players. The requirements to be a good baseball player are very undefined. You can be short, tall, thin, chunky, anything really. You name the greats and you get tall and chunky (Ruth, Ortiz), short and chunky (Yogi, Gwynn), tall and thin (Sizemore, Jeter), short and thin (Reyes, Ichiro). They may not be the best athletes (e.g. David Wells), but when they’re playing the best game in the world, who cares?
2. The Mentality. Baseball requires more intelligence than any other sport (save for NFL QB). Simply put, every hitter that steps to the plate is trying to out-think the pitcher, and vice versa. 4-5 times a game, focus has to be completely on the man in front of him. Will he throw a fastball, curve, change? If you take an at-bat (or even a pitch) off, you’re toast. Same thing with the pitcher. The only other sport that comes close is football, but mainly just for the QB. Baseball requires every single player to have good mental capacity.
3. The Field. Football, hockey, basketball and soccer all use essentially the same type of field/playing surface: a rectangle. Baseball uses a diamond. It’s not only unique in that aspect, but every single ballpark is unique amongst the sport. Each park has its own quirks and intricacies that make it special. Not a single other sport can say that. Yankee Stadium has Death Valley, the short RF porch, and the facade. Fenway has the Monster. Shea has the apple. Wrigley has the ivy-covered brick. Pac Bell (or whatever it’s called now) has the bay in RF. Houston has the hill in center. Imagine if the RCA Dome’s field was only 95 yards; that’s the equivalent of Death Valley or the Green Monster.
4. One on One. Basically the speech DeNiro makes in The Untouchables. Baseball is a team game: 25 men. But each of them takes one turn – by themself – to help the whole team. Then the next batter gets a chance. Because of the batting order, a team can’t simply send its best hitter up every at-bat. You can’t just give the ball to Jordan or Shaq (Pujols or Ortiz) every time. A team’s best hitter will get 4-5 chances a game to help his team. That’s it. You need a complete team to win.
5. Substitutions. Once a player is removed, he’s done. You can’t just sub in the best defenders when you have a lead. You can’t take out Santana for an inning because he’s tired, then re-insert him. Could you imagine the way baseball would be played if there were no substitution restrictions? It would be bedlam. Players don’t get any breaks (outside of the DH) during the game. Even late inning defensive replacements are a gamble if the trailing team comes back. And substitutions play an ever bigger role in the NL.
6. No Clock. No running out the clock. It doesn’t matter what inning and what score it is, you still need 27 outs to complete the game. There’s no easy way to ‘seal’ a win. You still have to face every batter, and record every out.
7. History. When Japanese kamikaze pilots flew their planes into American ships, they would often yell ‘Fuck Babe Ruth!’ No other American sport has the history baseball does. Some of the most iconic figures in our culture are Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio, Mantle, Ripken, McGwire, Bonds, Aaron, Clemens, Jeter. It’s goes all the way back to the 1830′s. The ‘Junior Circuit’ (AL) had been going strong for over 45 years before the NBA ever started. The Yankees had already won 20 World Series before the first Super Bowl was ever played. I just love that feeling of history when I watch a game.
8. Summer. What better sport to exemplify the feeling of summer than baseball. The only summer sport we have. Warm weather, kids are out of school; remember the day games with your dad, drinking a soda, eating a hot dog? No other sport lets you enjoy the weather. Hockey and basketball are indoors. And the football season lasts from September to February, nuff said.
9. Connection. This ain’t football where the most ardent fans get to see a maximum of just 24 games (including the pre and post-season). Baseball is 3 hours a day, 6 days a week for 6 months. You get a minimum of 162 games. That’s double basketball and hockey, and 10 times that of football. Not only do you get to see your ‘guys’ 162 times a season, but you actually feel close to them. They’re not wearing masks to cover their faces (football, hockey), so you see (and often share) their reactions and emotions. You don’t get that feeling of ‘closeness’ from other sports. And then when you add the fact that baseball plays 162 games, it’s easy to understand where the connection comes from. When the season is over, it’s like you not seeing your family for 5 months.
10. Home-field Advantage. Having the home team hit in the bottom of each inning assures that every team, every season (even Kansas City) will have its share of thrilling, bottom of the whatever, walk-off wins. It’s nothing like football where you squib kick it or have the QB kneel down, or in basketball where you dribble out the clock or foul the opponent 10 times.
Your thoughts?
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