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It was Jonathan Papelbon who approached Terry Francona Wednesday to talk about going back to the closer role. That’s what he did in college. It’s what got him to the All-Star Game last summer.
It wasn’t panic, as Curt Schilling articulated in his “38 Pitches” blog, but choice.
Still, Papelbon saw what was and was not transpiring. The Red Sox doctors said his shoulder is stronger than it had been at any time since he signed in 2003 because he was so diligent in following their offseason and spring training program.
Boston had no trade options. The notion that the Astros, the favorites in the NL Central, would give them Brad Lidge was pure folly; the Red Sox are not enamored with Chad Cordero’s stuff, much less his asking price (the demands from Arizona were two players, neither of whom the D-Backs would deal by himself for Cordero); and Texas is not giving Akinori Otsuka away. “Reality,” says one AL GM, “is that there are 20 to 24 teams that right now are unhappy with their bullpen situations. Brett Tomko, Byung-Hyun Kim and Armando Benitez are not answers, especially in the American League East.”
So Papelbon went in and told Francona that he’d prefer closing. Boston will give the initial fifth starting job to Julian Tavarez — 3-0, 4.01 in six September starts, with swingman Kyle Snyder, Devern Hansack and Kason Gabbard on the radar and Jon Lester a June possibility. This also means that there will be further Roger Clemens speculation as a complement to what should be a very good, contrasting rotation of Schilliing, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield.
“There is no legitimate bullpen help to be acquired right now,” said another AL GM. “And what we saw in Papelbon this spring is that he’d start out at 92-94 mph and gradually fall down to 88. Our people feel that he may throw so many pitches as a starter he’s a five-inning guy. And the Red Sox cannot afford to blow five leads in April with Papelbon sitting out there.”
Now, with Mike Timlin returning around April 10 and a setup staff of Brendan Donnelly, J.C. Romero, Snyder, Hideki Okajima and Joel Pineiro, there is order. Craig Hansen can go to the minors and try to find his lost natural delivery. When Timlin returns, Manny Delcarmen can get regular work at Pawtucket, if necessary.
The Red Sox dream about building a young, power bullpen with Hansen, Delcarmen, Justin Masterson, Bryce Cox and perhaps even Daniel Bard, with Papelbon at the end.
Francona will not use Papelbon as he did last year, for eighth-inning situations. But the manager knows if Papelbon blows a couple of saves in April, it is a relatively normal occurrence. But if Tavarez, Pineiro, et al blew three or four before May Day, it would be a constitutional crisis.
If Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew and Jason Varitek are healthy spread around Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox are going to be back among the top three offensive teams in the American League. What they cannot do is try to deal with what Bobby Cox calls “the disease” of bullpen failures, and a winter in which not one significant closer was acquired and a spring with no one on the radar. Papelbon walked in and offered an answer. -Peter Gammons of ESPN.com
Very interesting move. I guess it works out in the short term for the team. They can develop the young kids; Craig Hansen, Daniel Bard, Bryce Cox, and Manny Delcarmen; and see what they have for the future. Don’t expect Papelbon to repeat his 0.92 ERA of last year but he should still be an excellent closer. I rank him probably 6th or 7th in fantasy value.
The thing I don’t like about this move is that it puts Papelbon on a longer road to regain stamina when they decide, and they will, to put him in the rotation full-time. He finally got up to 5 innings, even though he was only sitting at 88mph. It has taken him all offseason and all spring training to get to that point and now it will take all of next offseason and probably all of spring training and some of the regular season in 2008 to get back to being the capable inning eating starter scouts and Boston Red Sox brass claim he can be.
AL West Predictions
1. Oakland A’s
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
Athletics
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Jason Kendall C .298 – 2 – 54 – 10 – 79
2. Shannon Stewart LF .288 – 7 – 55 – 8 – 62
3. Milton Bradley CF .302 – 18 – 73 – 14 – 81
4. Eric Chavez 3B .278 – 30 – 98 – 5 – 89
5. Mike Piazza DH .286 – 25 – 81 – 0 – 67
6. Nick Swisher RF .277 – 36 – 109 – 3 – 113
7. Bobby Crosby SS .273 – 21 – 78 – 9 – 76
8. Dan Johnson 1B .281 – 19 – 72 – 0 – 67
9. Mark Ellis 2B .285 – 13 – 60 – 6 – 76
Bench
Bobby Kielty OF .268 – 9 – 42 – 3 – 40
Marco Scutaro INF .259 – 5 – 30 – 5 – 36
Mark Kotsay CF .279 – 5 – 40 – 4 – 48
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Danny Haren 16-11 3.53 182
2. Rich Harden 12- 9 3.16 159
3. Esteban Loaiza 12-12 4.37 132
4. Joe Blanton 14-12 4.21 112
5. Joe Kennedy 10-13 4.26 106
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Huston Street 4-2 2.72 74 38-43
RP Justin Duchscherer 3-2 2.94 66 4-
RP Kiko Calero 4-2 2.96 63 2-
RP Alan Embree 2-3 3.42 41 -
RP Chad Gaudin 3-3 3.82 39 -
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Daric Barton 1B/DH
2. Travis Buck COF
3. Jason Windsor P
Angels
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Gary Matthews Jr.CF .274 – 14 – 62 – 8 – 81
2. Orlando Cabrera SS .279 – 11 – 68 – 26 – 93
3. Vlad Guerrero RF .336 – 34 – 121 – 12 – 103
4. Garret Anderson LF .276 – 18 – 80 – 0 – 59
5. Shea Hillenbrand DH .282 – 21 – 83 – 0 – 76
6. Howie Kendrick 2B .311 – 14 – 82 – 18 – 80
7. Mike Napoli C .246 – 22 – 60 – 2 – 58
8. Casey Kotchman 1B .275 – 9 – 36 – 2 – 24
9. Chone Figgins 3B .284 – 9 – 36 – 57 – 104
Bench
Macier Izturis 3B/SS/2B .278 – 5 – 40 – 12 – 53
Juan Rivera DH/COF .288 – 15 – 62 – 1 – 57 (DL)
Kendry Morales 1B/DH .278 – 10 – 43 – 0 – 35
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. John Lackey 15- 9 3.46 192
2. Kelvim Escobar 12-11 3.87 160
3. Ervin Santana 13-11 4.32 151
4. Jared Weaver 12- 9 3.68 158
5. Bartolo Colon 10- 9 4.36 127
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Fran Rodriguez 3-3 2.16 96 46-51
RP Scott Shields 5-4 2.74 92 5-
LP Darren Oliver 3-5 4.46 55 -
LR Hector Carrasco 5-4 4.02 68 -
RP Justin Speir 3-4 3.92 5 -
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Brandon Wood SS/3B
2. Eric Aybar SS
3. Joe Saunders SP
4. Jeff Mathis C
Rangers
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Kenny Lofton CF .305 – 5 – 51 – 26 – 97
2. F. Catalanotto LF/DH .302 – 8 – 57 – 1 – 68
3. Michael Young SS .312 – 19 – 96 – 8 – 112
4. Mark Teixeira 1B .289 – 38 – 120 – 2 – 109
5. Hank Blalock 3B .274 – 23 – 93 – 1 – 85
6. B. Wilkerson DH/LF .256 – 17 – 60 – 5 – 70
7. Nelson Cruz RF .246 – 16 – 58 – 7 – 54
8. Gerald Laird C .279 – 13 – 48 – 4 – 56
9. Ian Kinsler 2B .287 – 18 – 71 – 16 – 86
Bench
Sammy Sosa OF/DH .256 – 12 – 38 – 0 – 30
J. Hairston Jr. 2B/3B/OF .249 – 2 – 22 – 8 – 34
Jason Botts 1B/COF .276 – 9 – 36 – 0 – 34
Joaquin Arias INF .275 – 2 – 19 – 6 – 27
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Kevin Millwood 16-13 3.92 155
2. Vicente Padilla 13-12 4.46 142
3. Brandon McCarthy 11-13 4.26 131
4. Robinson Tejada 10-12 4.39 119
5. Jon Koronka 8-11 4.96 91
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Eric Gagne 3-3 2.67 60 23-26
RP Akinori Otsuka 4-3 3.11 64 9-
RR Kameron Loe 5-6 4.62 56 -
RP Rick Bauer 3-4 4.12 38 -
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Nelson Cruz COF
2. Jason Botts 1B/DH/COF
3. Joaquin Arias INF
Mariners
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Ichiro Suzuki CF .341 – 13 – 60 – 42 – 115
2. Adrian Beltre 3B .274 – 26 – 92 – 10 – 88
3. Jose Vidro DH .283 – 6 – 53 – 2 – 58
4. Richie Sexson 1B .268 – 37 – 111 – 1 – 86
5. Raul Ibanez LF .282 – 25 – 93 – 2 – 91
6. Kenji Johjima C .287 – 19 – 78 – 3 – 61
7. Jose Guillen RF .269 – 17 – 68 – 2 – 60
8. Jose Lopez 2B .276 – 12 – 76 – 6 – 74
9. Y. Betancourt SS .274 – 7 – 45 – 13 – 66
Bench
Ben Broussard 1B/DH .271 – 15 – 54 – 1 – 48
Willie Bloomquist Util .264 – 3 – 29 – 18 – 41
Jeremy Reed OF .282 – 7 – 39 – 9 – 46
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Felix Hernandez 13-11 3.83 185
2. Jarrod Washburn 12-10 4.09 110
3. Miguel Batista 10-12 4.35 118
4. Jeff Weaver 10-13 4.46 128
5. Horacio Ramirez 10-11 4.20 76
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL J.J. Putz 3-2 2.89 92 34-39
RP Julio Mateo 5-4 3.57 46 -
RP Chris Reitsma 3-5 4.40 37 3-
RP George Sherrill 2-3 3.81 48 –
RP Arthur Rhodes 1-2 4.57 31 1-
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Adam Jones CF
2. Jeff Clement C/1B
The 2007 Devil Rays opening day lineup should look a little like this:
1. Rocco Baldelli – CF
2. Delmon Young – RF
3. Carl Crawford – LF
4. Ty Wigginton – 1B
5. Jonny Gomes/Greg Norton – DH
6. Jorge Cantu – 2B
7. Akinori Iwamura – 3B
8. Dioner Navarro – C
9. Ben Zobrist – SS
Bench
Greg Norton – RF/1B/DH
B.J. Upton – 3B/OF/SS/2B/DH
Josh Paul – C
Elijah Dukes – OF
Rocco Baldelli is the catalyst for this team. He’s coming off his best offensive season and it only took him 92 games to do so. His numbers over 600 at-bats projected to .302-26-94-16 with 40 doubles, 10 triples, and 97 runs scored. I see Baldelli putting up numbers similar to that this season, if not a little better. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
149 581 111 178 37 7 25 91 304 36 110 23 3 .351 .523 .306
Delmon Young is the front runner for the American League Rookie of the Year Award not named Matsuzaka. He can be a real force both offensively and defensively. He needs to work on pitch selection and improve his plate discipline if he wants to be a superstar, if not then he’ll have to settle for being just a star. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
145 584 90 165 39 4 18 80 266 31 129 29 6 .324 .455 .283
Carl Crawford is already a superstar, the rest of the league just doesn’t know it yet. Crawford has improved his homers, average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and BB/K ration each year he’s been a full-time starter. Look for Crawford to continue this trend as he is only 25 years old and is getting smarter and better. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
157 618 109 192 26 14 22 96 312 46 81 52 8 .362 .505 .311
Ty Wigginton had a career year last year. No one expected him to hit 24 homers and drive in 79. Wigginton brings an energy and swagger the way Jonny Gomes does. Wiggy is in the last year of his contract and could be dealt for bullpen help to a contender come July. His projected numbers are based on him being traded around late July.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
131 474 59 127 31 1 19 76 217 38 110 5 2 .324 .459 268
Jonny Gomes is my X-factor. If Gomes can come back healthy and start out like he did last year (11 HR in April, 17 before the All-Star break) and remain healthy I see big numbers for him in 2007. I also think he should be moved to 1B but that’s for another day and another blog. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
131 432 63 115 20 2 28 69 223 59 126 5 3 .367 .516 .266
Jorge Cantu is the other X-factor. He set a club record with 117 RBI in 2005 only to have a dismal 2006 that didn’t come close to his 2005 numbers. He could benefit from a move to 1B or DH but the Rays need him at 2B and aren’t giving up on him there. He is completely healthy and vowed to get back to his 2005 form. I believe him! Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
146 560 69 155 38 1 24 90 267 34 80 1 1 .324 .477 .277
Akinori Iwamura is going to play somewhere in this lineup. My prediction is that it will be 3B and he’ll float around to give others days off and to give Upton some games at 3B. It’s hard to project Japanese hitters’ stats into the majors, but I’m gonna give it a shot.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
140 513 73 143 33 5 15 70 231 61 123 6 2 .363 .450 .279
Dioner Navarro is going into this season to prove that he is the Rays catcher of the future. There isn’t anyone pushing for his spot but that could change if he doesn’t play well. He’ll be 23 entering the season. He has a good eye and good patience at the plate, something the Rays need. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
122 430 53 117 20 0 10 47 167 56 70 2 1 .361 .388 .272
Ben Zobrist wants to prove that he belongs in the majors as an everyday shortstop. He went to the Arizona Fall League to work on his hitting and surprised everybody. Zobrist reached base in all 29 games posting a .469 OBP. He also batted .366 with 2 homers and 21 RBI in 101 at-bats. Let’s hope that carries over to the majors in 2007. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
137 496 72 138 29 3 7 59 194 66 72 12 4 .369 .391 .278
The Devil Rays pitching staff should look a little like this.
1. Scott Kazmir
2. Casey Fossum
3. Jae Seo
4. James Shields
5. Brian Stokes
CL Seth McClung
RP Dan Miceli
RP Shawn Camp
Scott Kazmir is the ace of this staff. He is not just an ace due to the fact that he starts opening. He’s an ace because he goes out there and duels with the number one guys on any team’s staff. He gives you a chance to win every game. This kid could win a Cy Young in the next 3 years. Here are his projected stats:
W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP BB SO
14 8 3.37 31 31 2 1 201 67 217
Seth McClung did a decent job as the Rays closer at the end of last season, converting 6 out of 7 opportunities. The closer job is his to lose and he could lose it easily if he doesn’t show he can handle the job. Projection.
W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP BB SO
4 6 4.38 51 0 21 26 63 34 54
This is certainly a team to watch. Do I actually think they have a legitimate shot at the AL East? Let me just say, everyone is tied for 1st when the season starts. The odds aren’t stacked in the Rays favor but this should be an exciting, progressive 2007 season for the Rays.
Full team-by-team lineups, projections, and projected standings should come soon.
You already got a look at my American League Fantasy Sleepers with my last blog, now it’s time to move onto the National League Sleepers.
Nation League
Catcher – Chris Iannetta: Iannetta should easily win the starting catcher job in Colorado this spring. His best competition is aging veteran Javy Lopez. Iannetta has the ability to hit for a good average (.303 career in the minors) and produce double digit homers. He is well worth a late round pick and should be a top 10 overall catcher very soon. Plus he hits in humidor-less Colorado this year.
First Base – Conor Jackson: With the perfect combination of discipline and strike-zone judgment Conor Jackson could put up huge numbers in the middle of Arizona’s lineup. He makes consistent, hard contact. His gap power could produce 25 homers and he could easily drive in 100 runs while batting over .310. Jackson goes in the last 3 rounds and sometimes undrafted. Grab him, especially if your league has CIF in addition to 1B and UTIL.
Second Base – Chris Burke, Kaz Matsui: While Burke is currently blocked at 2B by future Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio the Astros are going to find him playing time in CF. He could bat at the top of this order and produce 100 runs and 12-15 homers with 20+ steals. Kaz Matsui is more of a longshot. He has to first win the 2B job in Colorado. Then he has to hold onto it if he wins it. In 113 at-bats in Coloroado, Matsui hit .345 with 2 homers, 22 runs, 19 RBI, and 8 stolen bases. Incredible numbers! Monitor him closely and if he wins the job grab him out of the free agent pool.
Shortstop –Stephen Drew, Felipe Lopez: Stephen Drew came out of the gates swinging last year. He hit .316 in 209 at-bats with 5 homers, 13 doubles, and 7 triples. Drew is going to be the Diamondbacks’ starting SS this year and should get 550+ at-bats. He could provide great punch with a stat line around .285-15-80-10-90. Felipe Lopez is playing on a team that is going to try and get wins by using grit and letting players use their God-given talent. This is good news for Felipe Lopez. Lopez stole 44 bases last year. More importantly he learned how to take walks, 81 of them to be exact. He will be on 1B a lot this season and the Nats will need to find any way they can to score. Lopez is a sleeper to get 50 steals. He should also improve on his .274 AVG a bit. Don’t expect him to top 20 homers again though, look for 15-17 tops.
Third Base – Morgan Ensberg, Wes Helms: Get past Ensberg’s .235 AVG and 387 at-bats from last year. Look at his other numbers: 23 homers in 387 at-bats and 101 walks. Ensberg has improved his eye and has the protection of Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman in front of him now. Ensberg could put up huge numbers this year. Wait and grab him late. You’re probably thinking to yourself right now “Wes Helms? Why in the world would I want this guy?†I’ll tell you why. He’s the starting 3B for the Phillies (meaning he gets to hit in one of the 5 best hitters parks in the league, not to mention in a lineup with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins), he hits lefties with the best of ‘em (.336 in 107 at-bats), and has hit .316 over the last two years. Put him on your watch list because he most likely won’t go in any draft. Grab him out off of the free agent bin once you get a roster spot open. Oh yeah, he’s eligible at 3B and 1B too.
Outfield – Brad Hawpe, Luke Scott, Chris B. Young, Barry Bonds: Brad Hawpe put up good numbers last year (.293-22-84) and was available in the free agent pool. He won’t be available via free agency this year. He is going somewhere in the 14-18 round range and I’ve even gotten him in the last round in one draft. He is quite the uncommon by posting better numbers away (.303-16-48) than at Coors (.282-6-36). Don’t look for that to happen again. The humidor is gone and Hawpe proved that he can hit away from Coors. He could easily approach .310-30-100 this season. Luke Scott put up huge numbers in his major league stinit last season (.336-10-37 in 214 at-bats). He should win the starting job but will sit against lefties. If you are a competitive fantasy leaguer I would grab him in the last two rounds and sit him when the Astros face lefties. He’ll produce against righties. Chris B. Young is gonna be in the rookie of the year running all season long. He has 20-20, even 25-25 potential right away. Be careful though, his average will be in the .260-.270 range but if you can make up for it then grab young in the last 2 rounds, he seems to be going undrafted in almost every mixed-league. Bonds is Bonds. You know he can hit if healthy. Grab him, but don’t reach for him.
Starting Pitchers – Dave Bush, John Patterson, Tim Hudson: Dave Bush, if you haven’t read any other fantasy blogs, is the talk of the fantasy sleeper world. Everyone, including me, expect him to break out in a big way this year. Sure his ERA was 4.41 last year and he went 12-11. He’s 27 now and his secondary numbers suggest he is ready to bust out. He only gave up 18 homers and more importantly posted a WHIP of 1.13. His “converted†ERA, according to Bill James Handbook, was 3.47. The youngsters in that Brewers team are going to hit and they are going to field. Bush should put up 14-16 wins, an ERA below 4.00, and 160+ strikeouts. John Patterson has ace stuff. John Patterson also needs ace bandages everywhere. Grab him in the mid-late teen rounds and watch his progress. If healthy he can be amongst the league leaders in ERA, SO, and WHIP. Tim Hudson has worked out like a horse this offseason. He said he is putting his “horrible season†of last year behind him and working hard to get back to where he was when he was in Oakland. Look for Hudson to be somewhere in the middle of where he was in Oakland and where he was last year in Atlanta, which means great numbers! Grab him in the mid teen rounds.
Relief Pitchers – Jonathan Broxton, Tony Pena, Bill Bray: I don’t care if Saito is the closer in Los Angeles, Jonathan Broxton will likely get double digit saves and record over 100 strikeouts while posting an ERA below 3.00. Grab him late and laugh at everybody who missed out on him. For keeper leagues this guy is the closer of the future for the Dodgers. Tony Pena is someone to simply keep an eye on. Watch Arizona closer Jose Valverde and see if he struggles. If Valverde struggles and so does the team look for Arizona to trade Jorge Julio and put Tony Pena in at closer for good. Same can be said for Bill Bray in Cincinnati. Mike Stanton and Dave Weathers are supposed to split all the saves but young Bill Bray is the future closer. Watch the closer situation in Cincinnati and grab Bray if he gets the job midseason.
That’s all for now (fantasy-wise), I hope you enjoy the Fantasy Sleepers and good luck in your leagues!
It’s Fantasy Baseball season! That’s right. Football is over, Spring Training is here, and we’re 30 days away from Opening Day. That officially puts us in Fantasy Baseball Season.
Everyone knows that Albert Pujols should go number one, although I have seen Johan Santana and Alfonso Soriano go first overall. We all know that Paul Bako isn’t going to go in any draft of any type. There are some certainties and there are some question marks.
This blog is about those players who tend to fly under the radar in drafts, players who I believe will break out and will get good value, and players who are going to bust and will not provide proper value at a certain draft spot. I’ll sort it out by position and by league. Here we go with the American League, the National League will be ready in a day or two.
American League
Catcher – Mike Piazza: Piazza seems to be going really late in drafts. I’ve seen Jason Varitek, David Ross, and even Jason Kendall. Piazza is hitting in the American League West this year, as a DH! He should get 500+ at-bats and be able to put up better numbers than last season. Don’t expect Frank Thomas numbers though, you’ll get burned. I’d put him just behind the big guns in the AL.
First Base – Dan Johnson, Lyle Overbay: These are two guys that are having a hard time even getting drafted. I’ve already been in three drafts and Johnson didn’t go in any and Overbay went in the final 3 rounds of two drafts and didn’t go in the third draft. Johnson is a wait and see player. He may need to prove himself in Spring Training but he’s at his prime age and could provide a .285-25-100 season if playing time allows. Overbay has more upside. He has the likes of Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios in his lineup and he will be slotted nicely in the middle. He had career numbers last year (.312-22-92) and he could turn some of those 46 doubles into more homers. Look for him to out up a .300-25-100 season or better.
Second Base – Jorge Cantu, Julio Lugo: Second base is a shallow position, especially after Brian Roberts in the American League. Jorge Cantu reported to camp in excellent shape and worked his rear-end off this offseason, determined to put up better numbers than he did when he went ..286-28-117 in 2005. He’s healthy and is swinging well this spring. Lugo could put up better numbers than Roberts. Lugo has an incredible lineup behind him. He could easily spray balls off the Monster in right all season long. I’d bank on a .285-12-60-25-100 season and get him a couple rounds after Roberts. Cantu can be had in the final 5 rounds.
Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta, Bobby Crosby: Peralta was a huge disappointment last season. Last year he hit just over half the homers, his average was 35 points lower and his RBI were 10 less. He’s finally filled out his frame and should be done growing. He will be flying well below the radar in all casual leagues and even some competitive leagues. He could return to his 2005 form but buy low, don’t jump early on him. Everybody knows what’s wrong with Crosby. Health. He claims to be fully healthy and ready to prove he can be a middle of the order hitter. Crosby was listed by many, including the great Peter Gammons, as pre-season MVP last year. Not exactly fair to him. He’ll go late and provide good number, top 10 shortstop numbers in mixed leagues.
Third Base – B.J. Upton, Alex Gordon: You’re probably thinking to yourself right now “this guy is crazy. B.J. Upton!†That’s right! Mr. Upton is getting a ton of work at third, short, second, and outfield (he’s actually playing RF today in a seven inning intrasquad game). He could be Chone Figgins 12 rounds later. Be careful though, he still could be a bust but I would bet 80/20 he puts up good numbers. Draft him late as a bench player and monitor his progression. Alex Gordon is a beast! If he makes the team out of Spring Training he could win Rookie of the Year. Watch him closely, he’s definitely worth a late round selection on your bench, if he makes the team he belongs as your 3B or UTIL.
Outfield – Rocco Baldelli, Kenny Lofton, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis: If you want the number player that could give you first or second round numbers in eighth round then Rocco Baldelli is your man. I’m not giving this a second thought. I believe Baldelli will put up numbers no worse than .300-25-80-20-100 and he could be a right handed version of Grady Sizemore. Kenny Lofton is going undrafted in a lot of leagues. This old man can still hit, especially now that he is in Arlington and has Young, Teixeira, Blalock, and Kinsler hitting behind him. Lofton could go .300-8-50-30-100 in the last 3 rounds. Curtis Granderson is a talented young hitter. He is determined to cut his strikeouts down this season. If he does that and runs a little more, has the speed to steal 25, he could be in line for .280-25-75-10-95. Markakis has incredible strike zone judgment. He put up good numbers last as a rookie and I’ll bet he puts up better numbers this year. He’ll be hitting 3rd in front of Tejada and Huff and behind Roberts and Mora.
Starting Pitchers – Dan Haren, A.J. Burnett, Matt Garza: Haren is a gamer. With Zito gone and Harden’s health uncertain Danny Haren knows that his team needs him to be huge and he is the type of competitor to rise to the challenge. Look for him to be competing for the AL Cy Young Award. Burnett, when healthy, has some of the best stuff in the game. He has an opt out clause in his contract after the ‘08 season and could be pitching like he’s ready to use it. Look for 14+ wins and 200 K. Matt Garza is a phenomenal young pitcher. He put up numbers consistent to Matt Cain in the minors and projects as a future #2 guy in the rotation. He’s a great option for keeper leagues and a good option in all other leagues. Get him in the final 3 rounds.
Relief Pitchers – Joe Borowski, Seth McClung: If you’re looking for some sleeper saves look no further. Although Borowski hasn’t been named the closer he is most likely to get save opportunities for the Cleveland Indians, the team that I believe will win the AL Central this year. You have to look past Seth McClung’s numbers last year as a starter and look at his relief stats (4-2, 4.43 ERA, 21 K, 21 BB, 22.1 IP, 6 sv in 7 chances) and AAA stats (1-0, 2.20 ERA, 5 sv, 26 K, 2 BB, in 16.1 IP). The Rays are a better team than last year and he should be able to give you plenty of saves as a very late draft choice.
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays finished the 2006 season with the league’s worst record. Not exactly what they set out to do. A lot of things went wrong. Injuries kept offensive studs like Jonny Gomes and Jorge Cantu from progressing and injuries hit the pitching staff pretty hard. We never got to see Shinjo Mori. Scott Kazmir was shut down for almost the entire month of September. And Casey Fossum was lost to shoulder surgery. I don’t even want to get on the bullpen and the fact that the team lost the lead in over 60 games last year.
A few things did go right though. Carl Crawford showed glimpses of the power he is developing. Rocco Baldelli came back from missing a season and a half and tore up league pitching with a .302 average and .533 slugging percentage. Ty Wigginton was a diamond in the rough. Greg Norton provided a nice punch late in the year. Our farm system (although I’m tired of referring to it so much due to a lack of major league talent) is ranked numero uno by Baseball America and by ESPN’s Keith Law. And Scott Kazmir dominated the first 5 months of the season.
Those are just a few of the things that went right and went wrong with last season.
Now we can fast forward to 2007. In short, not much has changed. The Rays signed Japanese import Akinor Iwamura, traded for utilityman Brendan Harris, and let underachievers walk: Travis Harper, Brian Meadows, Tomas Perez, and Damon Hollins. The Rays signed relievers Al Reyes and Scott Dohmann, 1B Carlos Pena and Hee-Seop Choi, and catcher Raul Casanova to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training.
I know all the Devil Ray fans are getting pumped now (insert sarcastic tone)! But not to worry, the Rays are headed in the right direction (insert serious tone).
Now that the dismal 2006 season is behind us we can expect great things in 2007, right? Not so fast. Don’t get me wrong now, I think the team will improve and I’m not saying that because they finished last and have nowhere to go but up. I’m saying that because the Devil Rays future looks bright in 2007 and beyond.
The Rays have an incredibly talented outfield. Ranked by ESPN.com as the 8th best in all of the Majors the Rays could finish 2007 with the #1 ranked outfield. Carl Crawford is already a star. He continues to improve every season. If he was on almost any other team every house in America would know who he his. Rocco Baldelli has been slowed by injuries but has 2007 to look forward to completely healthy. Baldelli will bat first most of the season and should provide fire power at the top of the lineup. Delmon Young is a star in the making. He has all the tools a star needs. He is still unproven but he is one of the frontrunners for AL Rookie of the Year.
The Rays also have other young talent. B.J. Upton will be given a chance to play at 3B, SS, OF, and 2B. Ben Zobrist made huge strides in the Arizona Fall League but if he doesn’t pan out the Rays have SS Reid Brignac waiting to take the SS job. Jorge Cantu is coming back from injury. Dioner Navarro is a switch-hitting catcher with good plate discipline and is only 23. Akinori Iwamaru has exceptional talent. And Elijah Dukes, if he can stay out of trouble, is another 5-Tool outfielder. Not too far behind at 3B is Evan Longoria who should make his MLB debut sometime after mid-June.
You say, “all that sounds good but you can’t win without pitching.†You are absolutely right.
The Rays have Scott Kazmir. Everyone knows who this kid is. He has Cy Young Award written all over him. James Shields is emerging as a good pitcher. He has good command of his pitches and walks few. But other than those two the Rays are thin in young pitching talent. Jeff Niemann isn’t far from the majors. He has ace stuff but needs to prove that he can stay healthy if he wants to start in the Majors. The Rays are also loaded with talent at the Single-A level. Jacob McGee and Wade Davis look like they can be solid 2-4 guys in the Bigs. Jeremy Hellickson looks like he has the stuff to get Major League hitters out as well. But the Rays need this talent to emerge very soon. Only Niemann has pitched above A-ball. Look for the Rays to draft Vanderbilt lefty David Price with the first overall pick in this year’s draft. He is polished, has 3 plus pitches, good command, and a frame made for starting pitching. Not to mention that he just beat the #1 ranked Rice this past week. The Rays could have a rotation of Kazmir, Niemann, Price, Davis, and Shields by 2009. McGee would be in that rotation if Niemann is in the bullpen or if one of the other starters struggle. I would put money on that rotation if I was a betting man.
The Rays could be this year’s version of the Florida Marlins, but that would take everything going right. Actually, it would take everything going right and every player playing above expectations. The Rays could approach .500 this year, it’s not out of the realms of possibility. But a playoff spot looks like it won’t happen this year.
You can mark my words right here, right now: The Tampa Bay Devil Rays will be playoff contenders no later than 2009 and should contend for the AL Wild Card in 2008. Don’t sell this team short, if they were in any division other than the AL East they would be contending in 2007.
MILWAUKEE — Bill Hall and the Milwaukee Brewers agreed Monday to a $24 million, four year contract.
Hall, who is slated to play center field for the Brewers, gets a $500,000 signing bonus, $3 million this year, $4.8 million in 2008, $6.8 million in 2009 and $8.4 million in 2010. The Brewers have a $9.25 million option for 2011 with a $500,000 buyout.
“We are pleased to know that Billy has made this commitment to the Brewers’ organization and to the fans,” Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin said. “His mentality for accepting the team concept, his work ethic to get better every year and his improving performance gave us the confidence needed in committing to this multiyear contract. Billy has worked hard to deserve this kind of contract and we are looking forward to having him lead our club to the next level.”
Hall made $418,000 last year and had asked for $4,125,000, and the Brewers had offered $3 million. His agreement was first reported on the Web site of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
“The timing was just right,” Hall told the newspaper in a telephone interview from Phoenix. “I always wanted to stay in Milwaukee. We’ve got a good thing going there. Now, I know I’ll be there for a long time.”
Hall took over at shortstop last season when starter J.J. Hardy injured an ankle and finished with a .270 batting average in a career-high 148 games. He compiled 78 extra-base hits and 297 total bases, also club highs.
Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press
In my opinion this deal works if Bill Hall finds a permanent position.
He is slated to start in CF for the Brewers in 2007. He has been a utility man for his entire career and a move to CF doesn’t seem to be permanent, not with top prospect Ryan Braun (who is currently at 3B) possibly moving to the OF and most likely CF.
Hall’s best position is 3B and it is currently occupied by Corey Koskie. But we all know that Corey Koskie carries a 90% cahance of getting injured. This creates a problem, or does it? I think Bill Hall will eventually end up at 3B or LF. He is not a CF and the Brewers can’t afford to have a utility player averaging $6M over the next 4 seasons.
I expect Hall to be at 3B and to have a good career there.
By HOWARD FENDRICH, AP Sports Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) — Right fielder Austin Kearns and the Washington Nationals agreed Thursday to a three-year contract that guarantees him $17.5 million, adding a long-term piece to the team’s rebuilding effort.
“I don’t think there’s going to be a better place to be very soon,” Kearns said. “I feel comfortable here and I feel good about where it’s going.”
Kearns will get $3.5 million this year, $5 million in 2008, and $8 million in 2009, and the Nationals hold a $10 million club option for 2010, with a $1 million buyout. The contract does not include bonus clauses.
“Certainly we think Austin’s going to be a cornerstone of this franchise,” general manager Jim Bowden said. “His best years are ahead of him. His prime just starts now.”
Kearns had filed for arbitration, asking for $4.25 million in 2007, while the Nationals offered $3.65 million. He made $1.85 million last season, when he hit .264 with 24 homers, 33 doubles and 86 RBIs for the Nationals and Reds.
Washington acquired Kearns, infielder Felipe Lopez and reliever Ryan Wagner in July in an eight-player trade with Cincinnati.
In five major league seasons, the 26-year-old Kearns has batted .265 with 79 homers, 104 doubles and 299 RBIs.
He’s expected to be a middle-of-the-lineup fixture for Washington, which is revamping its player development system after three consecutive last-place finishes in the NL East.
Kearns joins third baseman Ryan Zimmerman (runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in 2006), first baseman Nick Johnson and catcher Brian Schneider as the team’s building blocks. Johnson and Schneider both signed deals through 2009 last offseason.
“We have a good core group,” Kearns said. “I don’t think people actually realize the talent that already is here and how close this thing can get to where we want it.”
It’s about time the Nationals locked up a young player with huge upside. This is a great move for them and the fans. Kearns is still very young, has huge power potential, and is a good defensive rightfielder. The Nationals need to build that team arounf Kearns, Ryan Zimmerman (who is a STAR in the making), Felipe Lopez, and John Patterson (if he can stay healthy). They need to rebuild their farm system and use all the money they get and the money they have saved by dumping aging vets and invest in some pitching. The Nationals will probably finish last in the NL East and in the bottom 5 in all of baseball this year but they have a great chance to turn things around by 2008. It’s gonna be a wait and see season for fans, let’s hope they don;t get too disgruntled by 2007 though.
Chase Utley might be the best second baseman in the National League. Now, the Phillies are paying him as such.
Utley and the Phillies agreed to a seven-year, $85 million extension Sunday, avoiding salary arbitration. The extension covers the final three arbitration seasons for Utley and his first four seasons of free agency. The deal is contingent on Utley passing a physical.
Utley gets a $2 million signing bonus and salaries of $4.5 million this year, $7.5 million in 2008, $11 million in 2009 and $15 million in each of the final seasons.
“We view Chase as not only a great second baseman but also one of the top 10-15 players in the game,” Phillies assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “He’s a hard-nosed, full-throttle player who exemplifies the spirit of Philadelphia. He is tailor-made for this city and we couldn’t be happier to lock him up for years to come.”
Utley, who made $500,000 in 2006, hit .309 last season with 40 doubles, 32 home runs, 102 RBIs and 131 runs. He also had a 35-game hitting streak that tied for the 10th-longest in major league history and longest by a second baseman.
Utley also became the 15th player in major league history — and second Phillie — to hit .300, and record 200 hits, 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, 40 doubles and 130 runs in one season. He and Hall of Famer Chuck Klein (1930 and 1932) are the only Phillies to accomplish the feat.
Over the past two seasons, Utley leads all major league second basemen in home runs (57), RBIs (197), hits (350) and runs (217). He was Philadelphia’s first-round pick in the 2000 draft.
Arn Tellem, Utley’s agent, believed the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols was the only other player who got a seven-year contract after just three years of major league service. Pujols and St. Louis agreed to a $100 million, seven-year contract that began in 2004.
“When the Phillies came to us with a multiyear deal of this length and magnitude, it made it very easy for Chase to accept, given that he loves Philadelphia, wanted to stay in Philadelphia and is hoping to retire in Philadelphia,” Tellem said. “He is excited about the team’s prospects and nucleus and feels they can be competitive for the term of this contract and beyond, He was very appreciative of the security this early in his career, and he was willing to give the Phillies a break in the free-agent years.”
Information from The Associated Press and ESPN.com was used in this report.
This is a great move by both the Phillies and Chase Utley. This allows the Phillies to build a core group areound Utley and Ryan Howard. The deal is also heavily backloaded. This would allow the Phillies to get maximum value for their signing if they feel the need to trade him at the end of his contract. Even if they don’t trade him this deal is slightly below today’s market value given the offensive output by Utley.
Associated Press
SAN DIEGO — David Wells is all but penciled in as the No. 5 starter for his hometown San Diego Padres.
The Padres and Wells’ agent agreed in principle Friday to a $3 million, one-year deal that gives the 43-year-old left-hander the chance to make another $4 million in incentives.
Padres general manager Kevin Towers said the two sides need to finalize some contract language and Wells must pass a physical. He expects the deal to be finalized by Monday or Tuesday.
Wells’ agent, Gregg Clifton, said the deal was 98-percent done, but that he needed to talk with his client one more time.
Wells’ return comes a little more than a month after the Padres signed 40-year-old Greg Maddux to a $10 million, one-year deal.
Wells will anchor a rotation that includes Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Clay Hensley and Maddux, a four-time Cy Young Award winner.
“I think it’ll give us one of our better pitching staffs probably since 1998, with a great blend of experience as well as young starters,” Towers said.
With Kevin Brown as their ace in 1998, the Padres reached the World Series before being swept by Wells’ New York Yankees. Wells won Game 1 at Yankee Stadium.
“It also gives us a left-hander, which we think was much-needed,” Towers said. “In talking to him last Thursday, I think this guy is dedicated and focused, somebody who can put together a good season for us.”
The Padres obtained Wells from Boston for the stretch run on Aug. 31. He went 1-2 with a 3.49 ERA in five starts for the two-time NL West champions before losing Game 2 of the division series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Wells said then he was leaning toward retirement, adding that it would take a “stupid” offer in terms of money for him to come back.
Besides his $3 million in base pay, Wells can earn $1 million in active roster bonuses, meaning he must avoid time on the disabled list, and another $3 million based on making starts 11 through 27.
When Wells pitched for the Padres in 2004, he earned $1.25 million in base pay plus $4.75 million in bonuses for making 31 starts.
Including his 2-0 loss to the Cardinals in October, Wells is 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 27 career postseason appearances, including 17 starts. He’s been to the World Series three times, winning it with Toronto in 1992 and the Yankees in 1998.
In a big league career dating to 1987, he is 230-148 with a 4.07 ERA with Toronto, Detroit, Cincinnati, Baltimore, the Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Boston and San Diego.
Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press
The San Diego Padres are going to boast one of the best rotations in the entire Majors next year. Wells will join a staff that was already a top 10 rotation going into the season. The Rotation will look something like this:
1. Jake Peavy RHP
2. Chris Young RHP
3. Greg Maddux RHP
4. David Wells LHP
5. Clay Hensley RHP
I believe the 1-3 spots will each win atleast 45 games combined and as many as 55 combined. Add Wells and Hensley to those and you could see a rotation with possibly 70-75 combined wins.
This deal is neither a big one or a small one. It’s a low risk-medium or higher reward. A win-win situation for the Padres as long as Wells stays healthy.
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