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Prospects You Need to Keep An Eye On

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Don’t you love prospects? Who doesn’t? Anyone from Brien Taylor to Alex Rodriguez have been top prospects. Some players have what it takes to dominate the minors and the majors while others end up as AAAA players or out of professional baseball all together. Below is a list of prospects you may or may not have heard of. These are all players that have done one of the above I mentioned: dominate the minors. All they have left to do is prove thier worth in the bigs.

I am not profiling guys that have any big league experience. No Alex Gordon, no Billy Butler, no Delmon Young, no Matt Garza, no Phil Huges… you get the point.

If you are in fantasy keeper leagues that allow you to have a certain number of minor leaguers stashed away I suggest you look closely at the list provided. Some of the players are you going to start tearing up the bigs this season, some will have to wait until 2009.

Without any more rambling I present you with a few prospects you need to keep your eye on.

3B Evan Longoria – Longoria is just 21 and only a year out of college. He has gone a combined .317/.393/.595 in 388 at-bats in his pro career. What is most astounding are his power numbers. Over those 388 at-bats he already has 28 homers, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 92 RBI, 73 runs scored, and a BB/SO ratio of 44/71 (including 25/27 this season). He is a plus defender at 3B with a good arm. He doesn’t have much speed but runs the bases well. He crushes lefties but he hits righties very well too. Longoria projects as a .300-30-110-5-100 middle of the order bat for the Rays. ETA: Sep 2007

SS Reid Brignac – In 128 games in 2006 he hit .321/.376/.539 with 100 runs 32 doubles, 5 triples, 24 homers, 99 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. His only knock is he is an “ok” defender and struck out 113 times. He has improved significantly on his defense and scouts say he can play SS in the majors. He got off to a good start, hitting .298 with 4 homers in his first 114 at-bats. He’s slowed down sicne, going 7 for his last 40 with no homers in his first full season in AA but don’t be fooled, he is one of the youngest players in that league. Brignac projects as a .290-25-90-10-90 guy at SS. If you are in a deep keeper league and have minor league rosters I would stash him away if he isn’t already taken. ETA: Sep 2007 at the earliest and could be the big league SS for TB starting 2008

OF Jay Bruce – Bruce, 20, is one of my favorite prospects. He is a true RF, with plus-plus power and a strong arm. He needs to imporve on hitting lefties so he doesn’t become a platoon plyer but he is too good to allow this to happen. So far this year for the Reds HiA Florida State League (pithcer friendly league) team he has hit .340/.389/.642 with impressive power numbers: 9 homers 12 doubles and 5 triples in only 162 at-bats, driving in 30 and scoring 31 in 40 games. He hit .291/.355/.516 last year with 16 homers 42 doubles 5 triples 81 RBI 69 runs and 19 steals in 444 at-bats. But don’t let the steals fool you, he only has 2 so far this year and isn’t exactly a burner. Bruce projects as a .310-35-110-8 guy in the bigs. That’s no joke! Store him now if you can. ETA: 2009

OF Cameron Maybin – Maybin, 20, is off to a hot start: .317/.434/.486 in 142 at-bats with 4 homers, 6 doubles, and 3 triples. He’s also scored 31 and drove in 20 in 39 games with 13 steals and a 29/47 BB/SO ratio. He needs to cut the strikeouts down a bit but that is an impressive walk rate for a young hitter in a pitcher’s league (HiA FSL). Maybin is the Tigers CF of the future and is an impact bat with plus range and a good arm for center. Last year he hit .304/.387/.457 with 9 homers 20 2B and 6 3B in 385 at-bats, not to mention he drove in 69 and scored 59 and stole 27 bases. He is very young and still a little raw. The Tigers expect him to fill his frame out and when he does they expect some of those doubles to turn into homers. He could be a yearly .300-18-85-30-95 guy in the bigs. ETA: 2009

OF Justin Upton – Upton, who doesn’t turn 20 until late August, is the younger brother of B.J Upton. Upton was the first overall pick by the Diamondbacks two years ago out of high school. He did “ok” last year hitting .263/.343/.413 with 12 homers and 15 steals in 438 at-bats. This year he is tearing up anything that comes his way. He is now in AA at the ripe age of 19 and is hitting a combined .347/.439/.611 between HiA and AA. He also has 9 homers 7 doubles and 2 triples to go with 10 steals a BB/K ratio of 22/33 and 34 runs and 28 RBI in 144 at-bats. The D-Back believe he can be a #3 hitter and see him as a .310-25-100-25-100 player. ETA: SEP 2008

OF Travis Snider – Snider, 19, is tearing up Midwest league pitching to the tune of .366/.394/.557 with 2 homers 11 doubles and 4 triples in 131 at-bats. He has driven in 27 and scored 16 with 3 steals. His BB/SO ratio (8/27 in 33 games) needs to improve and will with more experience. Snider impressed in the Appy league last year going .325/.412/.567 with 11 homers 12 doubles and a triple in 194 at-bats with a 30/47 BB/K ratio. He also stole 6 and had 36 runs and 41 RBI. Snider is projected as a RF, with plus power potential and a good arm that will be fine in RF. The Blue Jays won’t rush him. He projects as a .300/25/100 bat. ETA: SEP 2009

SP Jake McGee – McGee, 20, is 3-1 in 8 starts in HiA ball with a 1.51 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched. He’s also struck out 45 and walked 17. Here is what is key though, only 27 hits allowed for a .182 average and no home runs allowed. Last year he posted a 2.96 with 171 SO in 134 IP and only 7 homers allowed with a .211 avg. McGee is a power pitcher and is a front of the rotation type starter. ETA: Sep 2008 at the earliest

SP Wade Davis – Davis, 21, is 2-0 in 8 starts in HiA ball with a 1.70 ERA in 47.2 IP, including a no-hitter. He has struck out 45 against 14 walks. Like McGee, he doesn’t allow many hits, only 31 for a .191 avg and only one homer against him. Last year he posted a 3.02 ERA and struck out 165 in 146 IP while allowing only 5 homers. Anothr power arm like McGee and also projects as a 1-3 starter. ETA: Sep 2008 at the earliest

SP Adam Miller – Miller, 22, is waiting for a spot in the Indians rotation to open up. He is currently 4-1 with a 2.45 in 44 AAA innings. He a has struck out 39 and walked 14 and only given up 2 homers. His numbers last year were 15-6 with a 2.84 and 161 K to 46 BB in 156.1 IP. He could be at the top of the Indians rotation for many years. ETA: Sep 2007

SP Homer Bailey – Bailey is possibly the best pitching prospect in all of pro ball, possibly better than Phil Highes. Bailey is 21 and doing quite well in AAA with a 3-1 record and a 2.27 ERA in 39.2 IP. His walks are up and strike outs are down (27/19 SO/BB) and that is the only reason he’s not in the Reds rotation right now. Even with the high walk rate he has only allowed 2 homers and a .194 avg against. His numbers last year were 10-6 with a 2.47 in 138.2 IP and 156 SO and a .198 avg against. ETA: no later than Sep 2007

SP Kevin Slowey – Slowey, 23, is a pitcher with great command and control. Some scouts still like to question his “stuff” but his numbers tell the story. So far this year he is 4-2 with a 1.46 in 49.1 AAA innings. What is most impressive is his 44/3 SO/BB ratio. That’s right, only 3 walks! He has a .176 avg against and only 2 homers against. Last year he posted an 8-5 record with a 1.88 ERA and 151/22 SO/BB ration in 148.2 IP with a .188 avg against. He should join the Twins rotation very soon. ETA: mid June 2007.

-stats are from games through 5/18/07

 

Twins’ Hunter keeps promise, breaks rule

Minnesota Twins center fielder Torii Hunter has found himself in a little bit of hot water for making good on a promise he made to the Kansas City Royals after thier sweep of the Detroit Tigers gave the Twins a Division Title.

Hunter had four bottles of Dom Perignon delivered to the Royals clubhouse in response to some comments from Royals designated hitter Mike Sweeney before the two teams played earlier this week.

Of course, there is no opportunity for bad press that MLB will let slide by.

From ESPN.com:

[B]aseball has rules about this sort of thing.

Namely, rule 21-b, which proclaims “Any player or person connected with a Club who shall offer or give any gift or reward to a player or person connected with another Club for services rendered … in defeating or attempting to defeat a competing Club … shall be declared ineligible for not less than three years.”

The Twins have asked the Royals to return the bottles so as to negate the “reward” from Hunter. As if losing out on the number one pick in this year’s amateur draft isn’t reward enough.

This will be an interesting case for the commissioner.

While it’s pretty clear from this article about the Twins clinching the division last year that Hunter made the offer in jest, the offer was made.

Minnesota Twins center fielder Torii Hunter, running through their raucous clubhouse celebration Sunday afternoon, vowed to not only win the World Series but to deliver a present to his newest best friends. “Kansas City is going to get a bottle of Dom Perignon champagne from me,” Hunter screamed.

Does the ghost of Joe Jackson haunt Hunter for the next three years, or will Bud Selig’s better PR instincts kick in to keep this incident from exploding?

 

What’s baseball got to do with it?

via BallBug

Forbes has an article about the Business of Baseball. Given that Forbes is a business magazine not a sports magazine its list of baseball 10 best general managers will be the subject of some debate.

Being an Orioles’ fan, I hardly think that Mike Flanagan (#10 according to Forbes) deserves to be anywhere near the top of this list (yet.) He works for a difficult owner and as a fan I haven’t seen a good product for an entire year during his tenure. If this year turns out well, as it appears it might right now, there’s still little hope for long term success here. The Orioles have one of the weaker farm systems in MLB and the team isn’t especially young. (Overall that is. There’s Markakis, Cabrera, Loewen and Ray, but most everyone else of significance is 28 and up.) Success this year isn’t likely to extend more than two years unless the team’s scouting improves drastically.

I realize that this ranking is primarily from a business not a baseball standpoint, that’s why stathead favorite GM’s without much success (so far) like Mark Shapiro and Doug Melvin don’t rank. (Forbes does have metrics for evaluating them, but success on the field isn’t necessarily one of them.) Still how can Mike Flanagan make the list but not the likes of Kenny Williams, Brian Cashman, Bill Stoneman or even Tim Purpura whose teams have been in the World Series in recent years. Or Kevin Towers and Terry Ryan whose teams have made the playoffs?

And how does John Schuerholz rank below Brian Sabean or Pat Gillick?

Shouldn’t baseball have something to do with it?

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

 

2007 AL Central Stat Projections

AL Central Predictions

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

Indians

Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Grady Sizemore CF .303 – 31 – 91 – 23 – 136
2. Casey Blake RF .273 – 24 – 71 – 6 – 76
3. Travis Hafner DH .316 – 44 – 128 – 0 – 108
4. Victor Martinez C .308 – 19 – 98 – 0 – 86
5. Ryan Garko 1B .285 – 13 – 58 – 0 – 41
6. David Delluci LF .265 – 14 – 57 – 3 – 65
7. Jhonny Peralta SS .277 – 18 – 72 – 0 – 79
8. Andy Marte 3B .254 – 14 – 55 – 1 – 46
9. Josh Barfield 2B .286 – 15 – 64 – 20 – 82

Bench
Trot Nixon COF .274 – 9 – 53 – 1 – 57
Hector Luna INF .272 – 5 – 35 – 8 – 39

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. C.C. Sabathia 16-10 3.40 170
2. Jake Westbrook 14-10 3.90 117
3. Cliff Lee 11- 8 3.61 149 (DL)
4. Jeremy Sowers 14- 9 3.51 93
5. Paul Byrd 11-10 4.48 96
6. Fausto Carmona 3- 5 4.60 55
7. Adam Miller 4- 3 3.61 43

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Scott Borowski 3-4 3.62 65 31-35
RP Ro. Hernandez 2-2 3.44 47 1-
RP Matt Miller 2-1 3.06 33 -
RP Rafael Betancourt 3-3 3.29 51 -

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Adam Miller SP
2. Sin Soo Choo OF

Twins

Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Luis Castillo 2B .301 – 4 – 46 – 24 – 90
2. Nick Punto 3B .278 – 3 – 48 – 16 – 69
3. Joe Mauer C .329 – 16 – 97 – 10 – 98
4. Mike Cuddyer RF .290 – 26 – 112 – 7 – 100
5. Justin Morneau 1B .294 – 36 – 119 – 1 – 94
6. Torri Hunter CF .272 – 28 – 96 – 15 – 86
7. Rondell White LF .261 – 10 – 54 – 1 – 47
8. Jason Kubel DH .278 – 9 – 52 – 3 – 48
9. Jason Bartlett SS .287 – 7 – 56 – 18 – 76

Bench
Lew Ford OF .268 – 9 – 40 – 9 – 56 (DL)
Matt LeCroy 1B/DH .270 – 9 – 34 – 0 – 29
Jeff Cirillo INF .296 – 3 – 31 – 2 – 36
Mike Redmond C/DH .297 – 1 – 22 – 0 – 18

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Johna Santana 18- 8 2.81 247
2. Boof Bonser 13-11 4.28 160
3. Carlos Silva 10-11 4.48 74
4. Ramon Ortiz 4- 9 4.86 82
5. Sidney Ponson 5- 8 5.10 59
6. Matt Garza 11- 7 3.56 124
7. Glen Perkins 4- 3 3.93 53

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Joe Nathan 5-2 2.19 92 40-43
RP Jesse Crain 5-3 3.09 57 2-
RP Juan Rincon 4-3 3.06 68 -
RP Pat Nesheck 4-2 2.26 73 2-
RP Jesse Crain 2-3 3.80 46 –

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Matt Garza SP
2. Glen Perkins SP
3. Kevin Slowley SP

Tigers

Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Curtis Granderson CF .280 – 22 – 74 – 14 – 98
2. Placido Polanco 2B .292 – 8 – 59 – 3 – 84
3. Gary Sheffield DH .288 – 29 – 107 – 9 – 101
4. Magglio Ordonez RF .302 – 23 – 99 – 2 – 83
5. Carlos Guillen SS .300 – 17 – 80 – 14 – 91
6. Sean Casey 1B .287 – 11 – 66 – 1 – 69
7. Ivan Rodriguez C .289 – 15 – 67 – 7 – 72
8. Craig Monroe LF .261 – 24 – 81 – 3 – 73
9. Brandon Inge 3B .257 – 25 – 78 – 6 – 80

Bench
Marcus Thames 1B/OF .246 – 19 – 56 – 0 – 52
Omar Infante Util .267 – 6 – 32 – 5 – 39

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Jeremy Bonderman 13- 9 4.32 188
2. Kenny Rogers 13-10 3.98 91 (DL)
3. Justin Verlander 14-10 3.72 141
4. Nate Robertson 12-13 4.42 132
5. Mike Maroth 9-13 4.48 89
6. J.D. Durbin 2-3 4.64 29

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Todd Jones 3-4 3.77 37 34-39
RP Joel Zumya 5-3 2.62 93 4-
RP Fernando Rodney 4-3 3.65 61 5-
RP Jose Mesa 2-4 4.08 34 -
RP Jason Grilli 3-4 4.28 38 -

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Jordan Tata RP

White Sox
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Scott Podsednik LF .278 – 4 – 35 – 36 – 69 (DL)
2. Tadahito Iguchi 2B .284 – 17 – 73 – 12 – 93
3. Jim Thome DH .286 – 39 – 104 – 0 – 98
4. Paul Konerko 1B .296 – 37 – 113 – 0 – 94
5. Jermaine Dye RF .281 – 32 – 101 – 6 – 89
6. A.J. Pierzynski C .290 – 16 – 69 – 0 – 63
7. Joe Crede 3B .275 – 26 – 81 – 1 – 73
8. Juan Uribe SS .249 – 16 – 67 – 2 – 59
9. Darin Erstad CF .277 – 5 – 31 – 8 – 46

Bench
Pablo Ozuna Util .301 – 1 – 19 – 10 – 33
Toby Hall C .281 – 4 – 29 – 0 – 24
Brian Anderson OF .252 – 5 – 26 – 6 – 35
Josh Fields 3B/COF .276 – 13 – 56 – 14 – 61

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Jose Contreras 12-13 4.46 148
2. Mark Buehrle 13-12 3.90 123
3. Jon Garland 15-11 4.22 110
4. Javier Vazquez 12-13 4.46 186
5. Jon Danks 8-10 4.54 103
6. Charlie Haeger 4- 5 4.26 48

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Bobby Jenks 3-5 4.25 78 32-38
RP Mike MacDougal 3-2 3.12 54 8-
RP Matt Thornton 3-4 3.83 51 2-
RP David Aardsma 2-2 4.30 46 1-
RP Andrew Sisco 2-3 4.28 47 -

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Jon Danks SP
2. Jerry Owens OF

Royals

Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. David DeJesus CF .307 – 13 – 67 – 10 – 89
2. M. Grudzielanek 2B .287 – 7 – 50 – 4 – 76 (DL)
3. Mark Teahen RF .293 – 24 – 91 – 12 – 94
4. Mike Sweeney DH .296 – 12 – 52 – 0 – 44
5. Ryan Shealy 1B .282 – 19 – 83 – 2 – 76
6. Emil Brown LF .276 – 14 – 76 – 9 – 72
7. Alex Gordon 3B .289 – 18 – 77 – 14 – 71
8. John Buck 2B .250 – 13 – 46 – 1 – 42
9. Tony Pena Jr. SS .249 – 4 – 38 – 16 – 56

Bench
Joey Gathright OF .277 – 1 – 36 – 28 – 51
Esteban German Util .302 – 5 – 38 – 12 – 59
Reggie Sanders COF .256 – 14 – 52 – 6 – 46
Ross Gload 1B/COF .289 – 8 – 46 – 3 – 33

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Gil Meche 12-11 4.31 153
2. Odalis Perez 8-12 4.49 110
3. Zack Grienke 8- 9 4.24 91
4. Jorge dela Rosa 7- 9 4.65 101
5. Brandon Duckworth 4- 7 4.68 69
6. Luke Hudson 8-10 4.46 77 (DL)
7. Brian Bannister 4- 6 4.44 44

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Octavio Dotel 2-4 3.61 69 22-31
RP David Riske 4-2 3.26 51 6-
RP Joe Nelson 1-2 4.20 39 4-
RP T. Wellemeyer 2-3 4.12 52 -
RP Joe Peralta 2-3 4.16 54

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Alex Gordon 3B
2. Billy Butler DH/OF
3. Justin Huber 1B

 

2007 Fantasy Busts!

This isn’t so much about “all out” busts but more about players that may be getting drafted too high and too early. Again, when you see the name Joe Mauer, don’t freak out. I’m not saying I wouldn’t draft him, I’m just saying that he is going too early and that way too many people are overrating him. Here is a list of some of the “overvalued” players in fantasy right now along with some that you should just stay away from. Again, this is not a list of people I wouldn’t draft, I actually own a couple in some leagues, this is a list of people that I wouldn’t reach too early for.

CatcherJoe Mauer, Jorge Posada: You heard a little about why I believe Mauer is overrated above. Sure the guy won a batting title, but 12 other catchers hit 16 or more homers to Mauer’s 13. Four other catchers had more RBI, and 2 others had more stolen bases. This is not to say that he won’t top his power numbers from last year, I just believe he is beong overvalued and that I wouldn’t take him any earlier than the mid-late 3rd round. Jorge Posada is kinda in the same boat. He gets drafted for three reason: his homers, the fact he plays for the Yankees, and his lineup protection. Not bad reasons. But he gets drafted before guys like Ramon Hernandez, Mike Piazza, and Russ Martin. Posada is turning 36 this year and his career .270 AVG is probably in decline and is gonna be a killer and walks don’t help in most fantasy leagues. He’s good but I have him ranked around 8-12 for catchers.

First BaseSean Casey: I love Casey. Nice guy, everybody on his team and the opposing team, loves him. But on fantasy teams… Yes he has topped .300 5 times in his career and hit 20 or more homers 3 times. But those days seem long gone. He should never be drafted above guys like Overbay, Conor Jackson, or even Ty Wigginton. Stay away from him at all costs.

Second BaseRickie Weeks, Ray Durham: I’m not gonna mention Dan Uggla here. He is actually being avoided by everyone and he seems to be getting drafted in a perfect spot. But Weeks is an intiguing player. He has 20-30 potential every year. But he seems to get injured every year. He currently is fighting wrist problem, and his wrists are what generate his bat speed, and he could kill your team AVG (he is a career .257 hitter). You can look like a genius if you get him and he performs, but I wouldn’t draft him any sooner than the 10th round. And if anyone thinks Durham is going to repeat his numbers, let’s please make a bet!

ShortstopCarlos Guillen: Guillen is a guy I could be dead wrong about. He has .300-20-90-20-100 potential but I’ve seen him go in round 3 before. He isn’t getting younger and he is also getting slower (both at SS and in actual speed). I would love to have him on my team but I wouldn’t take his 2006 stats to the bank. I would rest on .300-15-80-10-90.

Third BaseJoe Crede: Two sets of two words for you: Back Problems, and Josh Fields. Crede continues to have back problems and the young Josh Fields is waiting to snag the 3B job. The White Sox need to trade Crede while his value is at it’s highest. If traded, his stats should diminish because he’s most likely headed to a ballpark that is not Chicago’s.

OutfieldWilly Taveras, Dave Roberts, Moises Alou, Gary Matthews Jr.: I’ll start with the speedsters. Taveras is not going to hit for power because he’s in Colorado. He is going to put up numbers around the same as last year’s. Don’t draft him expecting Coors Field to magically bring him power, it didn’t do it for Juan Pierre. Roberts is on a team with aging vets and he himself fits perfectly on that platform. He could easily swipe 40 bags but that’s all you should draft him for. I hear from people that Alou is going to perform miracles because he’s in the Mets lineup. Don’t buy it. He hits lefties like no one else but he probably won’t see more than 400 at-bats. Draft him as your 4th or 5th OF, not one of your starting 3. Lastly we come to Matthews Jr. Do I have to explain here? I’ll keep it simple: No Way he duplicates last year’s stats which were overrated in themselves!

Starting PitchersJered Weaver, Chien Ming-Wang, Orlando Hernandez: Weaver is having some problems with nagging injuries and his season last year was a season in which hitters never saw him before and he took advantage of it. Hitters are wise and they will catch on. Weaver should still have a good year but he’s going earlier than Kazmir, Hamels, and Cain and I think that’s ridiculous. Wang will give you 15+ wins, no doubt. But can he win 19 again? I wouldn’t bet on it. 76 strikeouts in 218 innings is not a sign for good things to happen. Some of those balls in play will drop for hits this year and his ERA won’t be duplicated from last year. Wang, in my opinion, is a one-dimensional fantasy starter. He’s a good #3, maybe #2, but don’t make him your #1. And Orlando Hernandez is just not going to have a stikeout per inning again. His ERA will kill you and you will regret taking him ahead of young guys like Garza, Sowers, and even James Shields of the Rays.

Relief PitchersBob Wickman, Takashi Saito, Armando Benitez: All three of these guys are on this list because they all have a history of injuries. They all also have people behind them (Wickman has Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, Saito has Jonathan Broxton, and Benitez has Brian Wilson) that will step in and may not give the job back if given the opportunity. Don’t be scared to take Wickman though, but monitor the other two closely. Closers are one-dimensional players (saves) and saves can be had in the waiver wire every year (2006: Putz, Saito, Francisco Cordero anyone?!)

 

2007 AL Fantasy Sleepers

It’s Fantasy Baseball season! That’s right. Football is over, Spring Training is here, and we’re 30 days away from Opening Day. That officially puts us in Fantasy Baseball Season.

Everyone knows that Albert Pujols should go number one, although I have seen Johan Santana and Alfonso Soriano go first overall. We all know that Paul Bako isn’t going to go in any draft of any type. There are some certainties and there are some question marks.

This blog is about those players who tend to fly under the radar in drafts, players who I believe will break out and will get good value, and players who are going to bust and will not provide proper value at a certain draft spot. I’ll sort it out by position and by league. Here we go with the American League, the National League will be ready in a day or two.

American League

Catcher – Mike Piazza: Piazza seems to be going really late in drafts. I’ve seen Jason Varitek, David Ross, and even Jason Kendall. Piazza is hitting in the American League West this year, as a DH! He should get 500+ at-bats and be able to put up better numbers than last season. Don’t expect Frank Thomas numbers though, you’ll get burned. I’d put him just behind the big guns in the AL.

First Base – Dan Johnson, Lyle Overbay: These are two guys that are having a hard time even getting drafted. I’ve already been in three drafts and Johnson didn’t go in any and Overbay went in the final 3 rounds of two drafts and didn’t go in the third draft. Johnson is a wait and see player. He may need to prove himself in Spring Training but he’s at his prime age and could provide a .285-25-100 season if playing time allows. Overbay has more upside. He has the likes of Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios in his lineup and he will be slotted nicely in the middle. He had career numbers last year (.312-22-92) and he could turn some of those 46 doubles into more homers. Look for him to out up a .300-25-100 season or better.

Second Base – Jorge Cantu, Julio Lugo: Second base is a shallow position, especially after Brian Roberts in the American League. Jorge Cantu reported to camp in excellent shape and worked his rear-end off this offseason, determined to put up better numbers than he did when he went ..286-28-117 in 2005. He’s healthy and is swinging well this spring. Lugo could put up better numbers than Roberts. Lugo has an incredible lineup behind him. He could easily spray balls off the Monster in right all season long. I’d bank on a .285-12-60-25-100 season and get him a couple rounds after Roberts. Cantu can be had in the final 5 rounds.

Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta, Bobby Crosby: Peralta was a huge disappointment last season. Last year he hit just over half the homers, his average was 35 points lower and his RBI were 10 less. He’s finally filled out his frame and should be done growing. He will be flying well below the radar in all casual leagues and even some competitive leagues. He could return to his 2005 form but buy low, don’t jump early on him. Everybody knows what’s wrong with Crosby. Health. He claims to be fully healthy and ready to prove he can be a middle of the order hitter. Crosby was listed by many, including the great Peter Gammons, as pre-season MVP last year. Not exactly fair to him. He’ll go late and provide good number, top 10 shortstop numbers in mixed leagues.

Third Base – B.J. Upton, Alex Gordon: You’re probably thinking to yourself right now “this guy is crazy. B.J. Upton!” That’s right! Mr. Upton is getting a ton of work at third, short, second, and outfield (he’s actually playing RF today in a seven inning intrasquad game). He could be Chone Figgins 12 rounds later. Be careful though, he still could be a bust but I would bet 80/20 he puts up good numbers. Draft him late as a bench player and monitor his progression. Alex Gordon is a beast! If he makes the team out of Spring Training he could win Rookie of the Year. Watch him closely, he’s definitely worth a late round selection on your bench, if he makes the team he belongs as your 3B or UTIL.

Outfield – Rocco Baldelli, Kenny Lofton, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis: If you want the number player that could give you first or second round numbers in eighth round then Rocco Baldelli is your man. I’m not giving this a second thought. I believe Baldelli will put up numbers no worse than .300-25-80-20-100 and he could be a right handed version of Grady Sizemore. Kenny Lofton is going undrafted in a lot of leagues. This old man can still hit, especially now that he is in Arlington and has Young, Teixeira, Blalock, and Kinsler hitting behind him. Lofton could go .300-8-50-30-100 in the last 3 rounds. Curtis Granderson is a talented young hitter. He is determined to cut his strikeouts down this season. If he does that and runs a little more, has the speed to steal 25, he could be in line for .280-25-75-10-95. Markakis has incredible strike zone judgment. He put up good numbers last as a rookie and I’ll bet he puts up better numbers this year. He’ll be hitting 3rd in front of Tejada and Huff and behind Roberts and Mora.

Starting Pitchers – Dan Haren, A.J. Burnett, Matt Garza: Haren is a gamer. With Zito gone and Harden’s health uncertain Danny Haren knows that his team needs him to be huge and he is the type of competitor to rise to the challenge. Look for him to be competing for the AL Cy Young Award. Burnett, when healthy, has some of the best stuff in the game. He has an opt out clause in his contract after the ‘08 season and could be pitching like he’s ready to use it. Look for 14+ wins and 200 K. Matt Garza is a phenomenal young pitcher. He put up numbers consistent to Matt Cain in the minors and projects as a future #2 guy in the rotation. He’s a great option for keeper leagues and a good option in all other leagues. Get him in the final 3 rounds.

Relief Pitchers – Joe Borowski, Seth McClung: If you’re looking for some sleeper saves look no further. Although Borowski hasn’t been named the closer he is most likely to get save opportunities for the Cleveland Indians, the team that I believe will win the AL Central this year. You have to look past Seth McClung’s numbers last year as a starter and look at his relief stats (4-2, 4.43 ERA, 21 K, 21 BB, 22.1 IP, 6 sv in 7 chances) and AAA stats (1-0, 2.20 ERA, 5 sv, 26 K, 2 BB, in 16.1 IP). The Rays are a better team than last year and he should be able to give you plenty of saves as a very late draft choice.

 

Love for Baseball

On Valentine’s Day, the love comes out for the greatest game in the world -

Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter: “I think because everybody can relate. You don’t have to be seven feet tall; you don’t have to be a certain size to play. Baseball is up and down. I think life’s like that sometimes, you know. Back and forth, up and down, you’re going through this grind. I think people like watching it. Baseball’s like a soap opera every day.”

Ernie Banks, Cubs legend and Hall of Famer: “It’s just life. When I think about baseball, it’s just life. It’s really the way life is. It requires a lot of mental capacity to be involved in it. It creates a lot of joy for people and memories for people who follow it. It’s a family. You like it because it’s a family. You started with it and know all these people — it’s family, it’s friends, it’s fun, it’s a beautiful game. All in all, baseball is amazing.

Joel Kweskin, 56, White Sox fan based in Charlotte, N.C.: “It’s unique unto itself. Football, basketball and hockey are variations of the same concept — back and forth in a linear progression to score a goal. Baseball, however, is mapped out on the field unlike any other sport. A running back or return specialist can run 100 yards, tops; a baserunner legging out an inside-the-park homer runs 20 yards farther. Baseball is the most democratic of sports — any size can play, and because the ball is not controlled by the offense but rather the defense, every player at any given time is involved in a play. Along with the anecdotally accepted premise that hitting a pitched baseball is the single most difficult thing to do in sports, so might be fielding a 175-mph line drive or grounder down the line. I love baseball because it is the greatest game ever invented.”

Former Royals star Willie Wilson: “The first thing is, I don’t think there’s any criteria for size, so anybody can play. I think people can relate. A lot of people never played football; basketball, you’ve gotta be tall and be able to jump. But baseball is a game where you pick up a bat and a ball, and you catch it, you swing the bat and you hit the ball. Most people have played softball or some kind of baseball, so they can relate to the sport. For me, that’s why I think America just embraces baseball, man.”

Baseball Blogger Travis G.: Where to start? I think better when I make a list.
1. Players. The requirements to be a good baseball player are very undefined. You can be short, tall, thin, chunky, anything really. You name the greats and you get tall and chunky (Ruth, Ortiz), short and chunky (Yogi, Gwynn), tall and thin (Sizemore, Jeter), short and thin (Reyes, Ichiro). They may not be the best athletes (e.g. David Wells), but when they’re playing the best game in the world, who cares?
2. The Mentality. Baseball requires more intelligence than any other sport (save for NFL QB). Simply put, every hitter that steps to the plate is trying to out-think the pitcher, and vice versa. 4-5 times a game, focus has to be completely on the man in front of him. Will he throw a fastball, curve, change? If you take an at-bat (or even a pitch) off, you’re toast. Same thing with the pitcher. The only other sport that comes close is football, but mainly just for the QB. Baseball requires every single player to have good mental capacity.
3. The Field. Football, hockey, basketball and soccer all use essentially the same type of field/playing surface: a rectangle. Baseball uses a diamond. It’s not only unique in that aspect, but every single ballpark is unique amongst the sport. Each park has its own quirks and intricacies that make it special. Not a single other sport can say that. Yankee Stadium has Death Valley, the short RF porch, and the facade. Fenway has the Monster. Shea has the apple. Wrigley has the ivy-covered brick. Pac Bell (or whatever it’s called now) has the bay in RF. Houston has the hill in center. Imagine if the RCA Dome’s field was only 95 yards; that’s the equivalent of Death Valley or the Green Monster.
4. One on One. Basically the speech DeNiro makes in The Untouchables. Baseball is a team game: 25 men. But each of them takes one turn – by themself – to help the whole team. Then the next batter gets a chance. Because of the batting order, a team can’t simply send its best hitter up every at-bat. You can’t just give the ball to Jordan or Shaq (Pujols or Ortiz) every time. A team’s best hitter will get 4-5 chances a game to help his team. That’s it. You need a complete team to win.
5. Substitutions. Once a player is removed, he’s done. You can’t just sub in the best defenders when you have a lead. You can’t take out Santana for an inning because he’s tired, then re-insert him. Could you imagine the way baseball would be played if there were no substitution restrictions? It would be bedlam. Players don’t get any breaks (outside of the DH) during the game. Even late inning defensive replacements are a gamble if the trailing team comes back. And substitutions play an ever bigger role in the NL.
6. No Clock. No running out the clock. It doesn’t matter what inning and what score it is, you still need 27 outs to complete the game. There’s no easy way to ‘seal’ a win. You still have to face every batter, and record every out.
7. History. When Japanese kamikaze pilots flew their planes into American ships, they would often yell ‘Fuck Babe Ruth!’ No other American sport has the history baseball does. Some of the most iconic figures in our culture are Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio, Mantle, Ripken, McGwire, Bonds, Aaron, Clemens, Jeter. It’s goes all the way back to the 1830′s. The ‘Junior Circuit’ (AL) had been going strong for over 45 years before the NBA ever started. The Yankees had already won 20 World Series before the first Super Bowl was ever played. I just love that feeling of history when I watch a game.
8. Summer. What better sport to exemplify the feeling of summer than baseball. The only summer sport we have. Warm weather, kids are out of school; remember the day games with your dad, drinking a soda, eating a hot dog? No other sport lets you enjoy the weather. Hockey and basketball are indoors. And the football season lasts from September to February, nuff said.
9. Connection. This ain’t football where the most ardent fans get to see a maximum of just 24 games (including the pre and post-season). Baseball is 3 hours a day, 6 days a week for 6 months. You get a minimum of 162 games. That’s double basketball and hockey, and 10 times that of football. Not only do you get to see your ‘guys’ 162 times a season, but you actually feel close to them. They’re not wearing masks to cover their faces (football, hockey), so you see (and often share) their reactions and emotions. You don’t get that feeling of ‘closeness’ from other sports. And then when you add the fact that baseball plays 162 games, it’s easy to understand where the connection comes from. When the season is over, it’s like you not seeing your family for 5 months.
10. Home-field Advantage. Having the home team hit in the bottom of each inning assures that every team, every season (even Kansas City) will have its share of thrilling, bottom of the whatever, walk-off wins. It’s nothing like football where you squib kick it or have the QB kneel down, or in basketball where you dribble out the clock or foul the opponent 10 times.

Your thoughts?

 

A’s Sign Shannon Stewart

The Oakland Athletics have reached an agreement with free agent outfielder Shannon Stewart for a one-year deal that could be worth as much as $2.5 million with incentives, pending a physical, ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney has learned.

Stewart, 32, is a .299 career hitter with 102 home runs in 11 seasons with Toronto and Minnesota. His best year came in 2000, when he hit 21 homers and drove in 69 runs for the Blue Jays.

Stewart has had plantar fasciitis problems in both feet over the past three years, limiting him to 92 games in 2004 and only 44 last season with the Minnesota Twins. The plantar fascia is a long tissue that connects the heel bone to the base of the toes.

Apparently Billy Beane is really, really worried about outfield depth. Right now he’s got Mark Kotsay, Milton Bradley, Nick Swisher, Bobby Kielty, Ryan Goleski and Ricky Ledee. If this report is correct, and I’ll assume it is since it came from Buster Olney, now Shannon Stewart joins the fold.

If Stewart can return to full health, I envision him as a sort of Jay Payton with more OBP and slightly less power, although Payton definitely has the edge on defense and health. Perhaps getting Stewart off of fake grass for the first time in his career (Toronto, Minnesota) will keep him healthy.

 

Yankees reached deal with 1B Mientkiewicz

ESPN.com news services

NEW YORK — The New York Yankees have reached a tentative deal with first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, according to reports in the New York Daily News and the New York Post.

The addition of Mientkiewicz, a left-handed hitter better known for his defense at first, would allow Jason Giambi to be the Yankees’ full-time designated hitter.

Mientkiewicz hit .283 with four home runs and 43 RBI bats for the Kansas City Royals last season before season-ending back surgery sidelined him on Aug. 29. He is a career .270 hitter in nine seasons with the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and the Royals and won the 2001 AL Gold Glove at first base.

The signing of Mientkiewicz would give the Yanks one of the best defensive 1B in the league. This would help young Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez with dome throwing errors.

Mientkiewicz also has great plate discipline. He sees about 4 pitches per plate appearance and puts the ball in play with a good average. He won’t hit many homers, although the short porch in New York could help.

All-in-all this is a good signing for the Yanks.

 

Watch out for Cleveland!

The American League Central is overflowing with teams that all have playoff hopes for the 2007 season.

There is obviously the Detroit Tigers, who made it to the World Series. Then we have the Chicago White Sox, who won the World Series the year before. Let us not forget about the Minnesota Twins, they always seem to make it work. The Kansas City Royals aren’t that far behind with all their young players (Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Luke Hochovar, Jeff Bianchi, Chris Lubanski…). Enter the Cleveland Indians.

Considered by most to be a bust last year after giving the White Sox a run for the Central title in 2005 all the way up to final series of the season, the Cleveland Indians are ready to take back the division the way they did in the mid-to-late 90′s when they had Belle-Alomar-Baerga-Thome-Ramirez and they were an offensive powerhouse.

With a rotation matched by few in the entire the Majors, the Indians know what it takes to win championships. Remember, the last two AL Champs (White Sox, Tigers) both lead the league in ERA.

Here is what the Indians rotation will look like:

    1. C.C. Sabathia
    2. Jake Westbrook
    3. Cliff Lee
    4. Jeremy Sowers (Watch out for this kid!)
    5. Paul Byrd

The Indians know that good pitching will beat good hitting most of the time, just look back to 1995 and 1997 when they were beat by the Braves and Marlins. But the 2007 Indians could look like the 1995 Indians, who lead the majors in Batting Average, won 100 games, and lead the AL in team ERA. I don’t think they will lead the majors in AVG, or even get 100 wins, but they have a legitimate shot at leading the AL, if not the Majors in ERA. But let’s not fool anyone, they can mash with the best of teams.

Their lineup could look a little like this:

    1. Grady Sizemore CF
    2. Casey Blake RF
    3. Travis Hafner DH
    4. Victor Martinez C
    5. Ryan Garko 1B
    6. Jhonny Peralta SS
    7. David Delluci LF
    8. Andy Marte 3B
    9. Josh Barfield 2B

The Indians have also revamped a horrible bullpen. They added veteran Roberto Hernandez, closer Joe Borowski, lefty Aaron Fultz, and are giving former closer Keith Foulke his physical as I write this. Add those guys to some of the flame throwing young arms like Jason Davis, Fausto Carmona, Fernando Cabrera, and a personal favorite of mine Tom Mastny.

The Cleveland Indians are tired of losing, tired of not reaching the playoffs, and more importantly tired of not winning a World Series since 1948. And don’t bring up the curse of Rocky Colavito.

Travis Hafner will mash to the tune of .300-40-125, Grady Sizemore is my pick to win the AL MVP, and Josh Barfield adds a good bat at the bottom, speed, and good defense up the middle. Let’s not forget that Victor Martinez is a lock for .300-20-100 and the emergences of young players like Ryan Garko, Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin Gutierrez, and Andy Marte. Jeremy Sowers will finish 2nd behind Delmon Young in AL Rookie of the Year voting, and establish himself as one of the best young arms in the game. Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd are both pitching for huge contracts; they will both be free agents at the end of the season.

This may be a little pre-mature but I am predicting the Cleveland Indians to win the AL Central this season. Who knows, maybe they can be the third team in four years to end a ridiculous streak of championship less seasons.

Tribe fans have a real reason to believe this year is their year!

 
 


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