Random Yankee (and other things) thoughts

- Hank seems to be losing his temper. He wants Joba to start now while criticizing Mike Mussina. Honestly, he’s not far off base. Don’t worry, Hank, Joba will be a starter in time but there’s something called ‘inning caps’ for his protection. On Moose, I find myself agreeing with Hank, he should learn something from Jamie Moyer. Look at today’s game for proof. Steve Trachsel is basically a poor-man’s Mike Mussina, yet had a very effective start against a great offense. And he did it by doing the opposite of how Moose has been going about pitching this season: he used his fastball sparingly. Mussina still thinks his 85-88 mph fastball is an out-pitch, as evidenced by his five consecutive fastball at-bat against Manny (who homered). Watching Trachsel work his magic, using a lot of changeups and curves, it’s evident Moose needs to follow suit to be an effective pitcher: he has to become a junkballer, and he still has good enough offspeed stuff and command to do it.

- Any ‘Lost‘ fans out there? I just finished season 3, and [spoiler alert] couldn’t believe how idiotic Charlie was. Ok, before we even get to that, how the fuck did Mikhail pull off his stunt? He had a spear in his chest but managed to put on goggles, swim outside the underwater station right to the window where Charlie was and detonate it. Anyway, the grenade went off and Charlie drowned. But Jesus, did he not see the gaping hole that he could have easily swam out of to safety?

- Watched highlights from the Rangers-Devils game 5 and something jumped out at me. The Devils score and are celebrating in front of the glass boards; that’s all good and normal but right behind them a Ranger fan is furious and gives them the double middle-finger. It’s clear as day on TV and funny as hell.

- Andy the Stopper.

Former MLB Catcher John Marzano dead at 45

He died Saturday after a fall down the stairs at his home. John was strictly a bullpen catcher, but he managed to stay employed at the Major league level for 12 years. Afterwards he went into broadcasting. RIP.

Yankee thoughts – March 27 edition

- I know it’s a year from now, but the 2009 bullpen has a chance to be dominant (and cheap). Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon, Chris Garcia and JB Cox are all returning from serious injuries this year. All have outside chances of a Joba-like rise this year, but more likely they’ll have a realistic shot a making the Bigs in 2009. With Farnsworth and Hawkins coming off the books next year, the pen competition will be wide open; the only lock is Mo Rivera. Joba will hopefully be starting full time next year, leaving six open spots. It’s quite possible we could see a 100% non-free agent bullpen, featuring the likes of Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, JB Cox, Mark Melancon, Dan McCutchen, Chris Garcia, Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan, as well as current bullpen candidates such as Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Patterson, Edwar Ramirez and Brian Bruney. Unfortunately, there’s not a single lefty in the group (Billy Traber is not a long term option).

- Three questions

1. Were the Yankee hitters even trying today?

2. How can Patterson and Ohlendorf not make this team?

3. Why does Girardi insist on a long-man?

I’m giving one of the three undecided bullpen spots to Traber. And we know Girardi wants a long-man – now with Karstens tweaked groin, it’s down to Rasner vs. Igawa. The last spot is down to three candidates: Bruney, Patterson and Ohlendorf.

Ohlendorf was a starter throughout college and the minors: he started 74 minor league games and 28 at Princeton. It’s only since mid-way through last season that he was converted into a reliever (because of the glut of solid Yankee minor league starting pitching and a bullpen need at the major league level). He can be both a long-man and one-inning reliever.

So with the two open spots, who makes the most sense out of Igawa, Rasner, Bruney, Patterson and Ohlendorf? It’s pretty clear: the last two, who’ve done nothing this spring but throw strikes and get outs, which is a lot more than the others can say.

-What about Brett Gardner?

His biggest criticism is his lack of power – his career minor league slugging percentage is a measly .374, lower than his on-base percentage (.381). He’s hit six homers in over 1100 at-bats.

But his best attribute is his plus-plus speed, and proponents point to this as a reason he can be a ML regular, perhaps the Yanks everyday centerfielder. But again, his lack of power might hold him back.

How can we take speed into account when calculating a hitter’s value? Perhaps adding in one total base for every steal, and subtracting one for every caught stealing. This increases Gardner’s (and other weak speedster’s) slugging percentage into very respectable territory.

Instead of a .374 SLG, Gardner’s slugging percentage would look like such:

161 xbh (4 x HR + 3 x 3b + 2 x 2b) + 256 1b = 417 TB
116 SB – 22 CS = 94 SB
511 TB/1115 AB = .458 SLG

That’s roughly the same as Derek Jeter last year, who, using the same SLG equation, had a .463 SLG. It’s also the same as Adam Laroche, and better than Kevin Youkilis, Nick Swisher and Travis Hafner (in 2007). (Bear in mind, of course, that I’m using Gardner minor league numbers.)

Admittedly, a steal of 2nd is not as valuable as a double, because a double (like all extra-base hits) has a chance to score a baserunner. But speed doesn’t show up in a player’s ability to tag up, it causes throwing errors, and beats out GIDPs. So perhaps they are somewhat akin, and there is something to be said for adding steals into SLG.

New York Yankee News – March 14 edition

If the games meant something, would a comedian play in them?

A swath of Yankees fans kept saying they couldn’t wait to see the new, aggressive Yankees under Joe Girardi. I don’t think they had Billy Crystal in mind.

Signing a comedian for a one-day-only gig does not fit into the W.W.B.D. (What Would Billy Do) wing of Yankees fandom, who felt Joe Torre was much too passive in his final years as the manager. (I thought Torre was mature.) Having Crystal gamboling in a spring training game, as a 60th birthday gift, as he did Thursday, does not jibe with the new leaner-meaner image of the Yankees.

Once a good high school player and still in excellent shape, Crystal carried himself with dignity while striking out swinging on a 3-2 pitch to lead off for the Yankees.

Yankees: What I’m reading

- The Yanks are doing more running this year because apparently it builds the hamstring (which was a major problem last year) – who woulda thunk it?

- Was Joe Girardi responsible for the Marlins plague of pitcher injuries?

- AL East preview, with a short piece on Phil Hughes.

- An interview with Hal (the other) Steinbrenner.

Inside scoop on the Santana deal

from Jon Heyman:

If you can really fault the Twins, perhaps it was for failing to pounce on the Yankees’ offer of top young pitcher Phil Hughes, center fielder Melky Cabrera, pitching prospect Jeffrey Marquez and a fourth undetermined prospect when it was briefly on the table for the first couple days of the winter meetings back in early December. Instead, the Twins pressed for the Yankees to also include another top young pitcher, Ian Kennedy, going for the grand slam. If you want to hit the Twins, hit them for that.

The Yankees’ proposal, however fleeting, may have been the best one. Even the AL scout who defended the Twins thought so, saying, “I think the Yankees’ deal would have been better because those two guys (Hughes and Cabrera) already showed what they can do in the big leagues.”

Even if that’s true — and Cabrera is no world-beater yet (even those who don’t love Gomez say he’s “a tick above” Cabrera in terms of value) — it’s still hard to knock Smith for ignoring Hank Steinbrenner’s quick deadline and pressing for more.

Who could have thought Hank the Yank would actually stick to the deadline this time? In Steinbrenner the Junior’s tenure at the top, he has showed he is willing to change his mind (hence the re-signing of A-Rod), to seal certain deals by giving away the store (thus a fourth year for 36-year-old catcher Jorge Posada) and even to over-rule general manager Brian Cashman (both A-Rod and Posada). So it’s understandable why Smith still hoped for more.

But as we know by now, Cashman made a strong stand, building a convincing case regarding Hughes’ toughness and potential. Then Hank’s younger brother Hal, who controls the purse strings, tightened hard before Hank could loosen them again.

When the Twins made a last pass at the Yankees on Tuesday, it was too late. So when Cashman told the Twins yet again that Hughes was off the table, the Twins went for the gusto, requesting that instead Cashman send them both Kennedy and Chien-Ming Wang to go with Cabrera and Marquez. Why not? By then, it was clear that there was only one place left to go, and that was the Mets.

That’s insane to ask the Yankees for that much. I guess it just shows how badly Minnesota wanted Santana out of the AL.

Yankee News – January 29 edition

- Robbie Cano and the Yanks have reached an agreement on a four-year, $30 million deal, avoiding arbitration.

- David Cone will join the YES broadcasting booth.

- Could Santana finally be traded? To the Mets that is. Carlos Gomez was pulled off his Winter League team. Could be nothing or could be something.

- Brian Banister gave a great interview (also at MLBTR). I especially liked his description of the three types of quality ML pitchers.

- The ’27 Yankees were good. So good, in fact, that their team OPS+ was 137 and their team ERA+ was 120! They led the league in both categories.

- Are steroids responsible for the power surge that began in the early ’90s? I still say yes (at least partially).

- If the Giants want to win, they should cheat, just like the Pats.

Yankee News – Jan 24 edition

Great Q & A session with Phil Hughes over at his place. The best part:

Your mechanics/delivery seemed to get a lot closer to where it was before the hamstring injury (first 2 starts) upon the arrival of Dave Eiland back in September of last years, do you credit your late season success to this?

After coming back from my injury last season my mechanics were a little out of whack. This led to a little loss of velocity and command. When Dave arrived in September we were able to work out some things and I think that had a lot to do with the success I had at the end of the season. It was nice to finish off the year on a good note so I have something to work toward to get back to my normal self in 2008.

Good to know that it was in fact Dave Eiland that allowed Hughes to have a great September and October. I’m very looking forward to a full season of his tutelage.

- The Yanks and Robbie Cano are close to signing a four-year extension worth $30 million (with two team option years). It would buy out all his arbitration years and one or two years of free agency (through his age 30 season). Even if Cano never got any better, he would still be worth every penny. His career line is a robust: .314/.346/.489 through the age of only 24. He’s sixth all-time among second baseman through the age of 24, and the best second baseman in the AL over the last three years (and the youngest in the top 10).

Other non-newsworthy stuff:
- The Yanks had the highest payroll (again). $218.3 million; tell me something I don’t know.

- Chuck Knoblauch was subpoenaed by Congress. I really don’t care anymore.

- Tom Brady wore a cast, then he didn’t, then he was a no-show for the media portion of his practice. What’s it all mean? My best guess is that it’s a ploy by Belichick and Co. to unnerve and confuse the Giants. Yeah, that’s it.

Yankees Big Three in 2008

It seems us hardcore Yankee fans (notice it’s not YankeeS fans) are looking forward to 2008 more so than any other season in a long time. In 2007, we saw that our top prospects were not over-hyped as Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy lived up to or exceeded expectations. The only dampers were Hughes’ three-month injury that spoiled an important developmental year and Joba’s loss of control for one inning in the playoffs that essentially ended the series. Assuming none are traded, all will be important pieces of the ball club in 2008 and well beyond. With their potential production for the next decade at stake, Yankee management is taking every precaution to ensure the Trio can and will contribute for as long as possible. While this may hamper the 2008 team due to innings limitations, it is a necessary evil to maintain the viability of the Big Three (could the group have a more boring nickname?) and the team as a whole for years to come.

In what way should the Trio be used, in what way will they be used, and what can we reasonably expect from them?

First we have to look at their innings totals in 2007 between the minors and majors, how much those increased from 2006, and how much we can expect from them this year:

Hughes pitched 72.2 with the Yankees, 5.2 in the playoffs and 37.2 in the minors = 116 total innings pitched. That’s exactly 30 fewer innings than 2006 (due to the pulled hamstring and the ensuing ankle sprain). With the knowledge that he pitched 146 innings in 2006, it’s possible he could be stretched to 170 innings.

Joba pitched 24 with the Yanks, 3.2 in the playoffs and 88.1 in the minors = 116 total. That’s 11 fewer than 2006, when he threw 89.1 at Nebraska and 37.2 in the Hawaiian Winter League. He probably won’t be stretched beyond 150, but some put it up to 170.

Kennedy pitched 19 with the Yanks and 146.1 in the minors = 165.1 total innings. He threw almost exactly 30 more innings than he did in 2006 (101.2 at USC, 2.2 in the minors and 30.1 in Hawaii). He’s ahead of the others, so we can reasonably expect 195 innings this year.

We saw how safe management played it last year with the ‘Joba Rules’, even in the midst of a pennant race. Going by the ‘Rule of 30’ (supported by Rick Peterson, Will Carroll and Tom Verducci) none of the Trio will be allowed to reach 200 innings in 2008. If we assume we’ll get 200 each from Wang and Pettitte, who each topped 200 in ’07 (counting the playoffs), it would still require about 550 innings from the remaining starters. The 2007 Yankees compiled just 921 innings by starters, 27 fewer than the AL average of 948 – a reasonable goal for the upcoming season. This is especially true considering starter-friendly Joe Girardi is now manager and the bullpen is currently weak. 948 innings pitched equates to 182.2 innings over three pitchers (not doable with the Trio) or 137 innings over four (very doable). (I always think of George’s secretary when I hear ‘doable’.)

With this in mind, and assuming that any or all of them will outperform Mike Mussina (of the 5.15 2007 ERA), the Big Three should be used to their maximum innings limits. That means no more than 150 innings for Hughes and Joba, and 200 for Kennedy. (Of course, if they should have low pitch counts, their limits could be extended. Wang went from 150 innings in 2005 to 218 in 2006.)If we say the Trio will average six innings per start, that would allow the former duo to start 25 games each and Kennedy to start 33 games. Great, pretty much a full season from Kennedy and over two-thirds from Hughes and Joba. However, it still leaves about 50 starter innings unaccounted for, hence a number of spot starts will be needed from Mussina or the hot hand of the moment – perhaps someone from Scranton like Alan Horne, Steven White, Kei Igawa or Jeff Marquez. That would require a kind of 5 ½-man rotation, going something along the lines of:

1. Wang
2. Pettitte
3. Kennedy (due to higher innings limit)
4. Hughes (assuming his limit is only 150 innings)
5. Joba (an April rotation that is 100% homegrown!)
6. Mussina

Moose will need to fill in for Hughes and Joba (alternately) roughly twice for every four times through the rotation. However, with off days, it would drop to about eight starts throughout the season. This maximizes our best starters, minimizes our worst (sorry Moose), and keeps the Trio within their individual innings limitations.

The problem with tandem starting (i.e., having Joba pitch four innings followed by Hughes going four too every fifth game) is that neither pitcher builds up significant arm strength. We want these guys to head into 2009 able to pitch at least six innings per start. They won’t start as often in my rotation, but when they do it will be treated pretty much as a normal ‘go as long as you can’ start. If Joe, Cash and Co. ever get concerned with the kids over-extending themselves, that’s what Moose and Scranton are for.

I haven’t yet touched on the argument that Joba should be a reliever because it just doesn’t make sense (unless it’s only done to limit innings), but to summarize (as RAB did excellently on Tuesday): 150 vs. 75 innings (and the difficulty that brings when trying to increase Joba’s innings again in 2009 (of course, that’s not a problem if he becomes a full time reliever)), four average to plus-plus pitches, the ability to maintain velocity late into games, the difficulty of finding/acquiring a ‘True #1 Ace’ (™) starter, and the ever-present fail safe option: if Joba does fail at starting, he can always fall back to relieving – pitchers don’t just fall back to starting. Make no mistake, the long-term plan is to make Joba a starter. That said, using Joba as a reliever through the first month or two wouldn’t be terrible, but converting him back to starting (a transition that could take a month by itself) is much harder than going from starting to relieving – that conversion wouldn’t happen until late in the season, and then what would happen in the playoffs? Would the Yanks try to convert him back to starting on the cusp of the playoffs? Or would they force (maybe) their best starter to stay in the pen?

As far as the playoffs go, there probably won’t be any restrictions (just as the ‘Joba Rules’ were lifted last year in October), so no worries there.

The benefit of the 5.5-man rotation is that these questions don’t have to be answered. Moose is part of the team whether we like it or not, but he can be effective as a long reliever and spot starter (and occasional set-up man if Farnsy, LaTroy, etc. need a rest) so as to not waste a roster spot. It also allows Hughes, Joba and Kennedy (all better than Moose) to start throughout the year, gaining valuable experience that can’t be gleaned from relieving, never having to transition between roles, limiting innings to ensure their health, and allowing the team to have one of the best long relievers/spot starters in baseball. This assumes they remain healthy, which is always a crap shoot, but there’s no guarantee that Wang, Pettitte or even Johan Santana will either.

Example of the 5.5-man rotation (assuming no off days):

Week1
Wang
Pettitte
Kennedy
Hughes 1
Joba 1

Wk2
W
P
K
H2
J2

Wk3
W
P
K
H3
Moose 1

Wk4
W
P
K
J3
M2

Then back to Week 1.

These proposals are all well and good, but the Yankees seem to be leaning toward giving a spot straight out to Mussina and letting the Trio fight for the two remaining spots. That is unfortunately what I believe will be the case this year (at least going into the season), with the probability of the odd-man out pitching in Scranton (or out of the pen) to limit his innings then coming up to the Bronx around mid-season to spell Mussina. Management and fans need to have patience – I truly believe the pen will be above average by mid-season: Albaladejo will be solid, Farnsworth out of the windup will cause less heart attacks, Ohlendorf brings his nasty stuff, Edwar will improve his command (call me an optimist), and later in the year the possibilities of Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez and Mark Melancon stepping into important roles. The problem with Joba in the pen is the fear that he’ll be so good that management (read Hank Steinbrenner) and the average fan will only see the short-term success (as a great set-up man) instead of the long-term possibilities (perennial Cy Young candidate).

Before we cast off Moose completely, we should evaluate whether he will have a worse 2008 than any of the Trio (in other words: what should we expect from the Big Three this year)?

Scores of scouting reports have been written on the Trio, most of them glowing, but it’s their track records that will ensure their short and long-term success. Let’s start with Hughes. The ‘popped’ hammy was an absolute killer – Hughes was going through his usual ‘adjustment game’ that he has at every level (the first game in which he dominates), only to have the fairytale night cut short by a serious injury that sidelined him until August, and he didn’t hit his stride again until September. Based on the following evidence, we can expect 10-15 wins and an ERA around 4.00 in 150 innings.

Exhibit A: consensus top pitching prospect in all MLB heading into 2007 as a 20-year old;
Exhibit B: nearly threw a no-hitter in his second ML game;
Exhibit C: dominant minor league stats through 2.5 seasons – better than Clay Buchholz at a younger age with a better size/frame and mechanics;
Exhibit D: an average AL pitcher (4.46 ERA, 100 ERA+) as the youngest pitcher in all baseball (and counting the playoffs, his ERA drops to 4.14);
Exhibit E: the Yanks best starter in September and October (coinciding with Dave Eiland joining the team?);
Exhibit F: for what it’s worth, ZIPS projects him to a 3.70 ERA in 141 innings.

As for Joba, he’s been a starter his entire college and professional career until July of last year. It was great to see him excel in a relief role (the best ERA+ in history among pitchers with at least 24 innings) but how will he fare in the rotation? The Yanks top prospect as ranked by Baseball America, John Sickels, along with every other prospect publication, we can expect a season similar to Hughes’: ERA around 4.00, 150 innings. He’ll get hit more as he loses velocity and batters see him three and four times a game (compared to 1-2 inning relief stints), but his high strikeout rate will limit the damage.

Kennedy is a very interesting case – he doesn’t have the stuff of Hughes or Joba but at this point is a more ‘polished’ (as Dave Eiland put it) pitcher, possessing command of four pitches with the most college and pro experience. Oh, and he was named 2007 ‘Minor League Pitcher of the Year.’ That said, there’s no way he pulls off another 1.89 ERA season, and while he has the ability to have a better 2008 than either Hughes or Joba (because of the higher innings limit and ‘polish’), I see a year along the lines of 4.40 ERA over 190 innings.

As for Moose, he wasn’t as bad as his ERA would indicate. Outside of three horrendous starts in August, his ERA was under 4.50. But he will be 39, so an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00 over 50+ innings sounds about right.

Sorry for the length of this opus. It was intended to top out at 500 words (the LoHud version) but ballooned to 2000 due to the sheer enthusiasm I experienced writing it. Perhaps by the time you’re done reading, pitchers and catchers will have already reported to Tampa…

sources:

BRef

Baseball Cube

HWL

Moundtalk

NY Times

Newsday