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I’ll try to be brief.
Please don’t succumb to the media pressure to trade Phil Hughes to land Johan Santana. Contrary to the opinions you might be reading in the newspapers, the Yanks do NOT NEED Santana. It would be nice, but not worth giving up a potential #1 ace-type guy for.
I’m sure you know all the reasons: Santana’s decline over the last few years (and during 2007′s latter half), Hughes’ resurgence in September and October when he became the Yanks best pitcher, not to mention all the cost controlled years of Hughes that would be thrown away vs. having to sign Santana to a long, lucrative extension. Also, Dave Eiland was just promoted to pitching coach – if not to help out the youngsters, why even do it?
Myself and a large majority of Yankee fans I’m in touch with feel the same way. Kennedy, Melky, Ajax, sure. Replace Kennedy with Hughes? No way. Kennedy should be a solid #3/4 pitcher in the Bigs but doesn’t project much higher. Hughes projects to be that frontline, ace starter that every team covets. Again, he’s on his way up (he was a league average pitcher as a 21-year-old – the youngest in all MLB in ’07) while Santana is on his way down.
If Boston gets Santana, so be it. They’ll probably have to give up a boatload of talent to do it, and while their 2008 rotation would be very strong, I prefer to hold onto the guy who will be strong for the next 10-15 years instead of the next 5 (while costing $100 million less). Why is Clay Buchholz deemed ‘untouchable’ yet Hughes, who projects better (better fb, better size, younger, better minor league stats) is not?
One last thing, on a personal note, it’s far more fun for us fans to root for homegrown Yankees than for the latest ‘veteran star’ that was acquired via trade or free agency. Anyway, I hope you feel the same way and won’t pull the trigger on the proposed deal with Hughes in it.
Thank you for your time,
Travis G.
Hughes is part of the Santana package. Say it ain’t so Brian. Hopefully this is just a ploy to get Boston to add more into the pot.
From the article:
“He was just starting to get that late life back at the end of the season,” one AL scout said Friday. “I think the leg injuries had a lingering effect. He was at 91, 92 (mph) after he came back, instead of 94-95. It cost him some explosiveness, and I’ve gotta believe it will come back next season. The impressive thing was that he was able to win anyway.”
And why was Dave Eiland named pitching coach if not to help the young’ins (he was Trenton’s pitching coach during Hughes’ phenomenal ’06 season and with Scranton this year)? Acquiring the lefty Santana, they may as well have just kept Guidry.
Or maybe if Andy Pettitte could make up his damn mind already, we’d be in a better to position to trade (or hold) the youngsters.
We throw around all these names like ‘I’d trade Kennedy and Melky for Santana, but not Hughes,’ or something akin to that. Then you read these stories about the actual players involved and it makes you want to keep all of them, even Melky. Phil Hughes was drafted out of High School by the Yankees – it’s the only organization he’s ever known. He doesn’t want to leave. Our instructors, managers, coordinators, scouts have all put work in to make him as good a pitcher as possible. Millions of dollars and thousands of hours were spent nurturing Hughes to the big leagues. I know Santana is the ‘best pitcher in baseball,’ but over the next 5-10 years, the combo of Hughes, Melky, Kennedy, Ajax, Tabata (and whoever else gets mentioned in trades) will help the team a lot more than one (currently) great starting pitcher.
First, how to define ‘Peak’? It’s a players most productive seasons, but how many? Their best three, four, five? To have a nice simple number, I’ll choose five. Using BRef’s Play Index, I’ll look at various age ranges, e.g. 24-28, 25-29, 26-30, etc. Then I’ll take the average runs created for the top five players, followed by the 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th and 50th player. I’m going to try looking at the modern era, so I’ll go from 1973 (start of the DH) to the present. First, hitters overall, to be followed by LHB and RHB. Then the same for pitchers.
Overall, hitters are easier to analyze. Their peaks have a nice, simple bell curve. In 5-year spans, they peak from 27 to 31 (you could also expand it a bit from 26-32). Going by 3-year spans, hitters peak from 27 to 29 (while still hitting great at 30 and 31). What about the difference between lefties and righties? Righties peak relatively early – 25 to 29. Lefties peak a bit later – 27 to 31.
Pitchers are pretty similar, peaking at the same ages as hitters – 27 to 31. However, if the peak was to be extended two years, it would definitely include the age 25 and 26 seasons. In other words, pitchers peak slightly earlier than hitters. A problem comes when differentiating between lefties and righties. Southpaws peak from 24 to 28. Righties peak from 27 to 31 – that’s a fairly significant difference.
Interesting the difference in handedness. Lefty pitchers peak earlier than righties, but lefty hitters peak later than righties.
What does all this tell us?
- Well, in terms of current events, the Yanks should be very careful trading for Johan Santana. He’s a small lefty that may have peaked early (not uncommon for southpaws) and is on the way down. Randy Johnson and Tom Glavine are outliers.
- It may still be a few years before Robbie Cano hits his prime and becomes the #3 hitter many think is inevitable. Be patient.
- Arod is on the way down.
- Melky should only get better.
- Same with Hughes, Joba and Kennedy.
- What is the right package for Santana? Does the Tampa deal kill any chance the Yanks have of trading for Johan? I believe so. The Twins will need another starter (now that Garza’s gone) capable of going 200+ innings. Hughes and Joba wont go over 150 each. Kennedy and Wang are the only pitchers capable of that, but neither are good enough in Minny’s opinion to trade for Santana. They want a higher ceiling pitcher. Also, they may not be in the market for a centerfielder anymore. Minny acquired a minor league centerfielder (Jason Pridie) and Delmon Young, a major league right-fielder who could probably play an average CF. He’d probably have below average range but his cannon arm could make up for it. Anyway, now that they have two solid CF candidates, their interest in our centerfielders – Melky and Austin Jackson – could dissipate.
- The Yanks are looking at David Riske and Troy Percival to better the bullpen. I don’t know how much better they would be than what we have in the minors, e.g. Ohlendorf, Edwar, Britton, Veras, Whelan, etc. But for the right deal (in terms of money and length), sure, go ahead.
- Call me crazy, but I don’t get why Clay Buchholz of Boston is getting more love than Phil Hughes right now (ok, maybe I do – because of the no-hitter). Did everyone forget that Hughes was pitching a no-no of his own back in May (only to have it cut 7 outs short by injury)? Hughes has more ML innings under his belt than Clay. Outside of k/9, he has better minor league stats across the board (era, hits/9, walks/9, HR/9 and k/bb) than Clay. Oh, one more thing – Hughes is two years younger!
- How does the mid-90s Mets Trio compare to the current Yanks Trio? Is there any chance they bust as much as Pulsipher, Wilson and Isringhausen?
The following are their MiLB stats through age 23:
Pulsipher
(he missed the entire 1996 season with injuries at the age of 22, derailing his whole career. Let’s look at what he did up to that point.)
527 ip
7.65 h/9
3.9 bb/9
7.65 k/9
1.96 k/bb
2.87 era
Wilson
248 ip
7.26 h/9
2.69 bb/9
9.22 k/9
3.53 k/bb
2.98 era
Izzy
476 ip
7.0 h/9
2.7 bb/9
2.9 k/bb
7.85 k/9
2.72 era
Very good overall. Izzy’s career was set back by an injury that cost him his entire age-23 season.
Now for the Bronx guys
Kennedy first
149 ip
5.62 h/9
3.14 bb/9
9.97 k/9
3.17 k/bb
era 1.87
Joba
88.1 ip
6.33 h/9
2.76 bb/9
13.79 k/9
5 k/bb
2.45 era
followed by an even more impressive ML stint
Hughes
275 ip
5.56 h/9
2.16 bb/9
10.18 k/9
4.7 k/bb
2.03 era
The Yankee Trio puts the Met Trio to shame. Far, far better minor league stats at younger ages. I don’t think the two should even be compared.
- MiLB.com is in the process of listing it’s top 50 prospects. Two Yankees have been named so far: A-Jax at 49 and Kennedy at 26. Tabata and Joba will inevitably be in the top 20.
- Mark Melancon’s on the mend. The guy has closer potential and could be setting up Mo sometime next year – ala Joba in 2007.
Am I the only one upset about the home run record incentive Arod is about to get? He could earn an additional $30 million if he passes Barry Bonds’ career home run record. 1. passing Mays, Ruth, Aaron and Bonds isn’t enough of an incentive by itself?, 2. what’s to stop him for swinging for the fences all the time?
Why the Yanks are giving him this and 10-year deal I’ll never know. By passing those historic names on the home run list, Arod will become enshrined in baseball history (even moreso than now) while increasing his fame and financial/marketing clout. There will be plenty more money there for him that the Yanks should not feel a need to ‘share’ with Arod the extra (if there is any) money they’ll make from the home run chase.
The second part is even more frustrating. Here’s a scenario: tie game in the late innings, runner on 2nd, two outs, Arod up. The count goes full. He strikes out swinging at a slider in the dirt because he’s swinging for the fences, inning over. He doesn’t get any closer to his incentives by merely taking a walk or even hitting a game-winning single. The only way he does inch closer is by parking a ball into the seats, hence the overanxiety. We won’t know that’s the reason, but it will be a thorn in our mind, torturing us. Was he swinging for the fences? Was he unwilling to walk? Same thing with all the pop-ups, double-play grounders, two-strike swings, full count swings, etc. It really, really irks me. It’s like Hank, Brian and Arod are putting the productivity of one player above that of the team. If they’re going to give him $6 million for each home run record broken, why not the same for every title won (or why not $10 million for that)? And because of the ridiculous length of the deal, it’s a problem that’s going to bother the fans, managers, front office, and especially his teammates for the next decade. Honestly, I’d rather them just give him $305 million straight up than add in these stupid HR incentives. If Arod got booed for grounding into a double-play before, there’ll be even more reason to boo him now since we’ll have the suspicion that he’s swinging for the fences. If they just give him all the $305 million, at least there wouldn’t be any suspicions. Despite the extra $30 million, it’s preferable in my mind. Why is Yankee management giving in? Ugh…
- Here’s another example of how wildly Arod will be overpaid for the next decade (still hard to fathom the length). Projections are, of course, no sure indication of a player’s productivity, but they are worth at least a look when splurging on a record-setting deal.
He’s not projected to have a single year OPS of more than 1.000, and will bat under .270 the last half (five years) of the deal. If this projection is remotely close, it will be a debacle the likes of which will make Carl Pavano look like a bargain (well, almost).
Brian and Hank, back out now while you still can!
This sums up my thoughts quite well.
From Newsday -
For 10 years. The A-Rod Yankees.
Forget that Hank Steinbrenner is the new Boss or Joe Girardi is the manager or Derek Jeter is the captain (and how happy does Jeter have to be with the idea of looking to his right every day and seeing A-Rod’s mug?).
The Yankees will be A-Rod’s team, for better or worse. We say worse. If the Yankees were ever planning to get away from the star system – wasn’t that the plan for about five minutes? – that’s over now. It’ll be all A-Rod, all the time, and how has that worked out so far?
Can A-Rod live up to the contract? Will fickle Yankees fans boo every strikeout and cheer ever home run? Will he ever have a sleepover with Jeter again? Will he hit in the postseason? Will he shout “Ha!” at an opposing third baseman? Will he be able to remain faithful to his wife? Will C-Rod wear any more tops with obscene messages on them to the Stadium?
And these are just the questions we know about now. Only a striking soap opera writer would be able to plot out what new distractions A-Rod might bring to the Yankees over the next 10 years. But make no mistake – it will happen. Wins and losses will take a back seat to the A-Rod circus. Championships are out, TV ratings are in.
Like Pamela Anderson remarrying Tommy Lee, A-Rod re-upping with the Yankees is a bad idea, especially once it seemed the divorce was final. The Yankees were moving on, they told us. No chance, Hank Steinbrenner said. We’re looking for a third baseman, Brian Cashman said with no hint of deceit in his blue eyes.
Then A-Rod reached out, and that guy from Goldman Sachs reached out, and just like that the Yankees were falling over themselves to guarantee 10 years to someone who wouldn’t take their calls and quit on them through the evil Scott Boras in a failed effort to start the bidding at $350 million.
Why offer 10 years to a 32-year-old player, even one in such amazing physical shape it makes Boras drool with dollar-signed delight? It would make sense to offer him, say, five or six or even seven years because then you get the bounce from the Bonds pursuit. But 10? Who exactly are the Yankees bidding against? Offer him seven years, tell him to prove his love for New York by “settling” for it, and cut him off like the phony he is when he changes his tune and starts shopping that contract around.
- Mo Rivera is expected to sign the Yankees three-year, $45 million record offer early this week. He was the most important free agent to re-sign because without him, who would be the closer? Cordero, who had a decent year (in the NL Central)? Joba Chamberlain, whose progress would be stunted by a full year as a reliever? Rivera was clearly the best option out there, but unfortunately, extremely expensive. At least the Yanks aren’t giving him a fourth year.
- The reported four-year, $60 million offer to Mike Lowell to play first was debunked. Thank goodness. I was starting to doubt Brian Cashman’s sanity.
- USA! USA! USA!
People were saying that after Arod’s deal in 2001 that $25 million a year wouldn’t look as bad in a few years (with inflation and the increasing free agent financial market). It still does. Some thought that other top players would be compensated similarly. It never happened nearly to the extent some thought it would. Even Manny’s crazy contract ($160 million for 8 years) has him making $8 mil (per year) less than Arod. Is Arod worth $8 mil more than Manny? Nope. Look at the stats – Arod’s the better defender and base-runner, but Manny’s the better hitter.
Sure Arod will (probably) be good for .295/.380/.570 for the next few years. But what happens when he starts declining, which could happen as soon as next year? Everyone has to realize Arod had a career year in ’07. He’s highly unlikely to repeat it. Historically speaking, he’ll only get worse from here on out. That Bonds played great well into his late 30s and early 40s is only a testament to the power of steroids. As in my previous post, I don’t believe Arod juices so the same benefits of longevity won’t apply to Alex. Never mind the decline in defense he’ll suffer.
Another reason not to sign Arod to the supposed mega-deal is the draft picks. If he signs elsewhere, the Yanks get two top picks in the 2008 draft. They probably wouldn’t be better than Arod, but together they might be. Who will have more value over the next 5-10 years, Arod or Joba and Kennedy (the top two picks of 2006)? Probably the pitchers, especially counting for value (effectiveness per dollar). Now not every draft is that good, but we know now that it can be. Phil Hughes was a first round pick. So was C.J. Henry who helped us acquire Abreu. There are definitely busts out there, but the pros outweigh the cons (in my opinion, as always).
And it ain’t just the amount of money ($275 million+, which is insane), but it puts the Yanks even higher above the luxury tax. That money goes to other teams. I’m sick of handing out money to make other teams better. If the Yanks were run more efficiently (Lowell for 4 years, $60 million?!), they would have a top team without helping out our competitors.
The next decade (still hard to believe the length) is going to be a(nother) damn circus. It’s enough. Let another team get the albatross, we get the draft picks and can finally move on. Contrary to popular belief, Arod is not a prerequisite to winning. Arod has two MVPs in the last three years, yet zero titles (or even World Series appearances). ’96-’03, six Series appearances, four titles. Obviously a lot of that was due to pitching, but that’s the point: we did it without an MVP and first-ballot Hall of Fame hitter – we didn’t need one. Now, I do think the team will be better for the next few years with Arod, but again, he’s not a prerequisite to winning. For the long term I believe it’s a detriment.
What’ll happen when he has an off year (or off month) and the boos return? It’s tough for Arod, tough for his teammates, tough for the managers, tough for the front office, tough for the fans that don’t boo him – just a bad situation. I really think its better for everyone to just split.
And the home run record incentive is stupid too. What’s to stop him from solely trying for HRs from here on out? Pride you might say? The same pride that made him opt-out during the World Series? Anyway, that seemed to be his biggest problem in ’06 – always trying to hit the long ball. Now that he has a (huge) monetary incentive just to hit HRs, why would he try to get that runner in from 2nd with a single rather than swinging for the fences?
In closing, I’m sure I’ve overlooked some things but I tried to get all my thoughts out at once. They just came flowing and I apologize in advance for any mistakes.
- And look whose come crawling back, clinging to the last shreds of good will he has in New York. Supposedly, for the Yanks to take him back, he would have to ‘reimburse’ them for losing the Texas money (about $21 million) AND exclude Scott Boras from the negotiations. Rumors exist of a 10-year, $275 million deal in the works. God no. Too much per year and too many years – $27.5 mil for a 42-year-old 1b/DH?! $175 million for seven is more like it. Offer that to Arod, if he doesn’t take it, let him get a better deal elsewhere. We’re a better team with him but we have won without him.
- Mo wants $50 million… No way in hell should he get that. $45 million for three years is more than enough for a 38-year-old closer. No one is going to match his demand (or even the Yanks offer).
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