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I watched the game last night between the Rays and Jays (albeit on TiVo at 1:30am) and Devil Rays rookie Andy Sonnanstine looked a lot better than the 6 runs he gave up on 8 hits in 7 innings in his major league debut.
First off, it is very rare to give up 6 runs on 8 base runners (actually 7 because Lind was caught stealing). Three of those runs were on a 3-run homer by Lind too. Sonnanstine threw ten of his first 11 pitches for strikes and he had 4 strikeouts through the first 3 innings. He also gave the Rays their third straight start of at least seven innings. He didn’t walk a single batter while striking out 5. He threw only 90 pitches and 67 of them were strikes.
Sonnanstine threw from about 3-4 different arm alots. He does need to keep the ball down more to be successful. He may not over power you but he throws so many pitches, he’ll throw them in any count, and from different arm slots. Ask Alex Rios who struck out in both of his first two at-bats on 3 pitches each!
I like what the Rays are doing by giving the kids a chance to join th rotation. The rotation of Kazmir, Shields, Howell, Sonnanstine, and Jackson looks good. It could use another name change but that might have to wait. Anyway, look for Sonnanstine to build off of his performance and be a very good major league pitcher.
*Live from ESPN the 2007 MLB Draft*
“With the first overall pick in the 2007 MLB draft the Tampa Bay Devil Rays select…
Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison said they have narrowd their pick down to three finalists: Vanderbilt lefty David Price, Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters, and California high school third baseman Josh Vitters. “I’ve gone and had lunch or dinner with all three of them and the area scouts that are involved, and that’s where we’re at in the process,” Harrison said.
The Rays also aren’t worried about drafting someone who has to be on the “fast track”.
“I think that when you start talking about any of these amateur players being close or immediate help, I think you’re making decisions based on the wrong thing,” Harrison said. “I guess conventional wisdom would say, OK, I guess an advanced college player is a little bit closer to the big leagues than a high school player, but I don’t think you make that choice based upon thinking that guy’s going to be catching for us a year from now or whatever. I think you’ve got to get them in the system and let development take its course.”
If the Rays go with David Price, most experts say they will, he won’t be on the fast track to the majors but might pitch his way on quickly. Price has been very impressive for top ranked Vanderbilt this year. As of last week Price was 10-0 with a 2.76 ERA in 15 starts, he has only walked 29 and struck out 164 in 114 innings. Plus Price is not a Boras client. Price seems to be the best selection here.
“I think that our goal all along has been that we’re going to take the guy that we think’s the best prospect in the draft,” Harrison said. “That’s what we’ve narrowed this down to. “…Funny things can happen. … So to stand here and say, ‘That’s our guy,’ I think, is a little premature.”
With that said, could the Rays go after high school 3B Josh Vitters? Some scouts believe he has the most raw power (I think Micheal Burgess does), and most agree that he is the best overall hitter at the high school level. He can handle the leather and is a good athlete. What’s not to like? I can’t think of anything. The only problem is that the Rays have their 3B of the future in Evan Longoria and they currently have Japanese import Akinori Iwamura blocking him. I personally don’t see Vitters going to the Rays with the first pick. He will go in the first 4 picks though.
“My pick for the best player in this draft, Wieters is 92-94 mph off the mound, but he’s a prospect as a catcher: a switch-hitter who sprays the field with line drives and shows home run power from the left side, and a capable catcher with a laser arm.” – Scouts Inc’s Keith Law.
Why not Matt Wieters? I know, the first thing that comes to people’s minds when people discuss the problems the Rays have is pitching. So the obvious choice is to grab David Price. Right? Not so fast. If the Rays select Wieters, who could be up in the majors as early as September or by mid-June next season, the Rays could have a lineup from top to bottom that would look like this (asuming they re-sign Pena and Wigginton):
1. Rocco Baldelli – CF
2. B.J. Upton – 2B
3. Carl Crawford – LF
4. Ty Wigginton – 1B/DH
5. Delmon Young – RF
6. Evan Longoria – 3B
7. Carlos Pena – 1B/DH
8. Reid Brignac – SS
9. Matt Wieters – C
Bench – Akinori Iwamura – 3B/2B
That is a lineup that could bop with the big boys. Wieters is also a very good defensive catcher, timed around 2 seconds from home to 2B, sometimes under 2 seconds. He calls a good game, and is an offensive force. One scout said he is the closest thing to Joe Mauer at catcher around. Not something to be taken lightly. The one bad thing on his resume: he is a Scott Boras client.
The Rays aren’t as far away in their pitching as some people think. They have Andy Sonnanstine (6-3, 2.35, 65/13 in 65 IP) Mitch Talbot, Jason Hammel (2.85, 61/22 in 66.1 IP), Jeff Niemann (57/20 in 53.1 IP), and J.P. Howell (64/18 in 63.2 IP) in AAA. James Houser (3-0 2.39), Chris Mason (7-1, 2.39, 59/14 in 64.0 IP), Chuck Tiffany, and Chris Seddon in AA.
The best is in Vero Beach (HiA Ball) with two guys I think will be Cy Young contenders: Wade Davis (3-0, 1.69 and 58/16 in 58.2 IP), Jake McGee (4-1, 1.84 and 61/21 in 53.2 IP), plus Matt Walker and Michael Wlodarczyk. Then there is Jeremy Hellickson (2-1, 2.79 in 29.0 IP with 24 SO), Heath Rollins (6-0, 1.04 and 66/14 in 60.1 IP), and Joshua Butler (3-1 2.41 ) in LoA.
Wow! That is a ton of pitching on its way for the Rays. The popular saying is “you can never have too much pithching” but how often does a Joe Mauer-esque catcher come along? I think the Rays should take a shot and draft their catcher of the future.
…Matt Wieters, catcher out of Georgia Tech.”
-Jonathan C. Mitchell
The wife of Tampa Bay Devil Rays rookie outfielder Elijah Dukes filed for a restraining order against her husband and said she fears for her life, The St. Petersburg Times reported Wednesday.
NiShea Gilbert, a middle-school teacher, said that Dukes allegedly burst into her classroom at lunchtime in April. A frightened Gilbert then ran to the principal and got a deputy, who banished Dukes from the school.
Gilbert told a Florida court that Dukes threatened to kill her and sent her a photo of a handgun to her cell phone.
Gilbert played a voice mail allegedly from Dukes for the newspaper. “You dead, dawg. I ain’t even [expletive]. Your kids, too.”
Gilbert has filed requests for protection twice in the last month, according to the newspaper. A hearing on her latest request is scheduled for May 30.
“I just don’t think I should live in fear,” Gilbert told the newspaper. “When [the Rays] go out of town, I come home. When they’re at home, I go stay with my mother. I shouldn’t have to live like that because he’s a baseball player.”
When approached by the newspaper before Tuesday night’s game, Dukes declined to comment on Gilbert’s allegations.
“I’m just going to play ball, that’s it,” Dukes told the newspaper. “I’ve got to go. I’ve got a video game to finish.”
Dukes is batting .231 in his first major league season with eight home runs and 13 RBIs.
Usually when you hear something like this you say “I can’t believe it”. Not this time. Sadly many people could’ve seen this coming.
Dukes, 22, has been arrested 6 times in the last 9 years. He has also been suspended multiple times by the Rays organization, including a season ending 35 game suspension 2 years ago.
Dukes needs help and he needs help fast. The Rays should’ve traded him (like I said) for some pitching help before he blew up again. The Rays have been way too passive about Dukes and a suspension should come out of this, showing the players in this organization that character should matter. This could hurt the Rays right now but it’s the right move to make.
Don’t you love prospects? Who doesn’t? Anyone from Brien Taylor to Alex Rodriguez have been top prospects. Some players have what it takes to dominate the minors and the majors while others end up as AAAA players or out of professional baseball all together. Below is a list of prospects you may or may not have heard of. These are all players that have done one of the above I mentioned: dominate the minors. All they have left to do is prove thier worth in the bigs.
I am not profiling guys that have any big league experience. No Alex Gordon, no Billy Butler, no Delmon Young, no Matt Garza, no Phil Huges… you get the point.
If you are in fantasy keeper leagues that allow you to have a certain number of minor leaguers stashed away I suggest you look closely at the list provided. Some of the players are you going to start tearing up the bigs this season, some will have to wait until 2009.
Without any more rambling I present you with a few prospects you need to keep your eye on.
3B Evan Longoria – Longoria is just 21 and only a year out of college. He has gone a combined .317/.393/.595 in 388 at-bats in his pro career. What is most astounding are his power numbers. Over those 388 at-bats he already has 28 homers, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 92 RBI, 73 runs scored, and a BB/SO ratio of 44/71 (including 25/27 this season). He is a plus defender at 3B with a good arm. He doesn’t have much speed but runs the bases well. He crushes lefties but he hits righties very well too. Longoria projects as a .300-30-110-5-100 middle of the order bat for the Rays. ETA: Sep 2007
SS Reid Brignac – In 128 games in 2006 he hit .321/.376/.539 with 100 runs 32 doubles, 5 triples, 24 homers, 99 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. His only knock is he is an “ok” defender and struck out 113 times. He has improved significantly on his defense and scouts say he can play SS in the majors. He got off to a good start, hitting .298 with 4 homers in his first 114 at-bats. He’s slowed down sicne, going 7 for his last 40 with no homers in his first full season in AA but don’t be fooled, he is one of the youngest players in that league. Brignac projects as a .290-25-90-10-90 guy at SS. If you are in a deep keeper league and have minor league rosters I would stash him away if he isn’t already taken. ETA: Sep 2007 at the earliest and could be the big league SS for TB starting 2008
OF Jay Bruce – Bruce, 20, is one of my favorite prospects. He is a true RF, with plus-plus power and a strong arm. He needs to imporve on hitting lefties so he doesn’t become a platoon plyer but he is too good to allow this to happen. So far this year for the Reds HiA Florida State League (pithcer friendly league) team he has hit .340/.389/.642 with impressive power numbers: 9 homers 12 doubles and 5 triples in only 162 at-bats, driving in 30 and scoring 31 in 40 games. He hit .291/.355/.516 last year with 16 homers 42 doubles 5 triples 81 RBI 69 runs and 19 steals in 444 at-bats. But don’t let the steals fool you, he only has 2 so far this year and isn’t exactly a burner. Bruce projects as a .310-35-110-8 guy in the bigs. That’s no joke! Store him now if you can. ETA: 2009
OF Cameron Maybin – Maybin, 20, is off to a hot start: .317/.434/.486 in 142 at-bats with 4 homers, 6 doubles, and 3 triples. He’s also scored 31 and drove in 20 in 39 games with 13 steals and a 29/47 BB/SO ratio. He needs to cut the strikeouts down a bit but that is an impressive walk rate for a young hitter in a pitcher’s league (HiA FSL). Maybin is the Tigers CF of the future and is an impact bat with plus range and a good arm for center. Last year he hit .304/.387/.457 with 9 homers 20 2B and 6 3B in 385 at-bats, not to mention he drove in 69 and scored 59 and stole 27 bases. He is very young and still a little raw. The Tigers expect him to fill his frame out and when he does they expect some of those doubles to turn into homers. He could be a yearly .300-18-85-30-95 guy in the bigs. ETA: 2009
OF Justin Upton – Upton, who doesn’t turn 20 until late August, is the younger brother of B.J Upton. Upton was the first overall pick by the Diamondbacks two years ago out of high school. He did “ok” last year hitting .263/.343/.413 with 12 homers and 15 steals in 438 at-bats. This year he is tearing up anything that comes his way. He is now in AA at the ripe age of 19 and is hitting a combined .347/.439/.611 between HiA and AA. He also has 9 homers 7 doubles and 2 triples to go with 10 steals a BB/K ratio of 22/33 and 34 runs and 28 RBI in 144 at-bats. The D-Back believe he can be a #3 hitter and see him as a .310-25-100-25-100 player. ETA: SEP 2008
OF Travis Snider – Snider, 19, is tearing up Midwest league pitching to the tune of .366/.394/.557 with 2 homers 11 doubles and 4 triples in 131 at-bats. He has driven in 27 and scored 16 with 3 steals. His BB/SO ratio (8/27 in 33 games) needs to improve and will with more experience. Snider impressed in the Appy league last year going .325/.412/.567 with 11 homers 12 doubles and a triple in 194 at-bats with a 30/47 BB/K ratio. He also stole 6 and had 36 runs and 41 RBI. Snider is projected as a RF, with plus power potential and a good arm that will be fine in RF. The Blue Jays won’t rush him. He projects as a .300/25/100 bat. ETA: SEP 2009
SP Jake McGee – McGee, 20, is 3-1 in 8 starts in HiA ball with a 1.51 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched. He’s also struck out 45 and walked 17. Here is what is key though, only 27 hits allowed for a .182 average and no home runs allowed. Last year he posted a 2.96 with 171 SO in 134 IP and only 7 homers allowed with a .211 avg. McGee is a power pitcher and is a front of the rotation type starter. ETA: Sep 2008 at the earliest
SP Wade Davis – Davis, 21, is 2-0 in 8 starts in HiA ball with a 1.70 ERA in 47.2 IP, including a no-hitter. He has struck out 45 against 14 walks. Like McGee, he doesn’t allow many hits, only 31 for a .191 avg and only one homer against him. Last year he posted a 3.02 ERA and struck out 165 in 146 IP while allowing only 5 homers. Anothr power arm like McGee and also projects as a 1-3 starter. ETA: Sep 2008 at the earliest
SP Adam Miller – Miller, 22, is waiting for a spot in the Indians rotation to open up. He is currently 4-1 with a 2.45 in 44 AAA innings. He a has struck out 39 and walked 14 and only given up 2 homers. His numbers last year were 15-6 with a 2.84 and 161 K to 46 BB in 156.1 IP. He could be at the top of the Indians rotation for many years. ETA: Sep 2007
SP Homer Bailey – Bailey is possibly the best pitching prospect in all of pro ball, possibly better than Phil Highes. Bailey is 21 and doing quite well in AAA with a 3-1 record and a 2.27 ERA in 39.2 IP. His walks are up and strike outs are down (27/19 SO/BB) and that is the only reason he’s not in the Reds rotation right now. Even with the high walk rate he has only allowed 2 homers and a .194 avg against. His numbers last year were 10-6 with a 2.47 in 138.2 IP and 156 SO and a .198 avg against. ETA: no later than Sep 2007
SP Kevin Slowey – Slowey, 23, is a pitcher with great command and control. Some scouts still like to question his “stuff” but his numbers tell the story. So far this year he is 4-2 with a 1.46 in 49.1 AAA innings. What is most impressive is his 44/3 SO/BB ratio. That’s right, only 3 walks! He has a .176 avg against and only 2 homers against. Last year he posted an 8-5 record with a 1.88 ERA and 151/22 SO/BB ration in 148.2 IP with a .188 avg against. He should join the Twins rotation very soon. ETA: mid June 2007.
-stats are from games through 5/18/07
Home openers are a something to awe at. Especially if you are at Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Shea, a new ballpark like PNC or PETCO, or your team has a shot at going all the way this season (i.e. Cleveland, Philadelphia, Los Angeles…).
But what about Tampa Bay? In the words of a good friend of mine “You’d better believe it”! If you were there last night you would agree with me.
Last night the Rays unveiled the “new” Tropicana Field, or as we like to call it here at 3Guys “the house that Stewy re-furbished”. It was beautiful! New scoreboard (one of the biggest in all the majors), new brick and fence facade, very modern advertisements, and a new atmosphere. It looked like a modern ballpark enclosed in an old dome.
Enough about the Trop.
The fans were ignited! It’s the first time since the Rays “Hit Show” that featured Jose Canseco, Fred McGriff, and Vinny Castilla that this type of excitement surrounded the Rays. The announced crowd of 38,437 was a sell out, with close to 38,400 of those cheering for the hometown Rays.
After Ty Wigginton, B.J. Upton, and new 3B Akinori Iwamura each homered the “house that Stewy re-furbished” almost lost its top. It was great to see Rays fans standing when Shields had 2 strikes on a hitter. It was awesome to hear the crowd chanting an elongated version of “Dukes” (sounded like Doooooooks) when rookie CF Elijah Dukes came to bat. It sound like Fenway Park when Kevin Youkilis steps up to the plate.
The Rays eventually lost the lead when Shawn Camp gave up a 2-run homer to Troy Glaus in the top of the 8th. Did it stop the fans from cheering on their favorite team? Heck no! The Rays went down pretty quickly in the 8th though.
Bottom of the 9th comes, the Rays 3-4-5 hitters are due up against one of the best closers in the game in B.J. Ryan. Rocco Baldelli battles and gets teh count to 3-2. Ryan finally wins the battle, on the 10th pitch (I believe) but that at-bat is what seemed to wear Ryan down. Ty Wigginton then singled. Delmon Young homered to right on a beautiful opposite field swing. Akinori got a bunt single which made him 4-4 on the night. Gomes pinch hit and flew out to Wells in center, almost hitting the ceiling with the ball. Dukes singled hard to left, Akinori advanced to third. Upton came up. B.J. vs B. J. Mr. Upton hits a high, soft bouncer past the pitcher to John McDonald at short and McDonald only had one chance to get Upton and couldn’t make the play cleanly. Rays win!! Rays win!!
The fans in Tampa Bay played a huge role in this game. “[The] fans were fantastic,” Maddon said. “I’d like to see that on a more consistent basis. It does make a difference.”
B.J. Upton had this to say: “Great crowd tonight made it special. Hope they continue to come out.”
It was shear pandemonium in the house that Stewy re-furbished that night.
So you ask me, “are home openers the best, even in Tampa Bay?” And I tell you “Yes, you’d better believe it!”
AL East Predictions
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Red Sox
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Julio Lugo SS .288 – 14 – 62 – 26 – 97
2. Kevin Youkilis 1B .285 – 18 – 79 – 3 – 103
3. David Ortiz DH .289 – 47 – 132 – 0 – 118
4. Manny Ramirez LF .309 – 37 – 114 – 0 – 96
5. J.D. Drew RF .290 – 24 – 96 – 2 – 98
6. Mike Lowell 3B .275 – 19 – 84 – 2 – 75
7. Jason Varitek C .260 – 15 – 68 – 2 – 59
8. Coco Crisp CF .285 – 14 – 67 – 21 – 78
9. Dustin Pedroia 2B .291 – 6 – 62 – 5 – 76
Bench
Willy Mo Pena COF .278 – 16 – 53 – 1 – 45
Erik Hinske COF/1B .279 – 10 – 42 – 5 – 44
Alex Cora INF .241 – 1 – 15 – 5 – 26
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Curt Schilling 14- 9 3.67 181
2. Josh Beckett 15-10 4.14 162
3. D. Matsuzaka 14- 9 3.88 179
4. Tim Wakefield 11-12 4.38 128
5. Julian Tavarez 6- 6 4.36 173
6. Jon Lester 7- 6 4.45 79
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Jon Papelbon 4-3 2.36 69 36-41
RP Joel Piniero 3-5 4.66 59 –
RP J.C. Romero 2-3 4.33 42 -
RP Mike Timlin 4-3 3.70 46 4-
RP M. Delcarmen 3-2 3.36 56 1-
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Dustin Pedroia 2B
2. Jon Lester SP
3. Craig Hansen RP
Yankees
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Johnny Damon CF .291 – 22 – 77 – 24 – 119
2. Derek Jeter SS .320 – 16 – 93 – 27 – 115
3. Bobby Abreu RF .295 – 21 – 105 – 26 – 108
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B .296 – 39 – 128 – 14 – 108
5. Jason Giambi DH .261 – 32 – 98 – 0 – 81
6. Hideki Matsui LF .297 – 26 – 104 – 2 – 93
7. Jorge Posada C .272 – 19 – 72 – 1 – 60
8. Robinson Cano 2B .309 – 18 – 81 – 4 – 85
9. D. Mientkiewicz 1B .279 – 7 – 49 – 2 – 47
Bench
Andy Phillips 1B/DH .246 – 9 – 38 – 2 – 33
Migeul Cario INF .254 – 2 – 31 – 11 – 36
Melky Cabrera OF .274 – 8 – 47 – 11 – 68
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Andy Pettitte 13-10 4.08 167
2. Mike Mussina 14- 8 3.69 163
3. Kei Igawa 12-10 4.28 148
4. Carl Povano 8-11 4.56 96
5. Phil Hughes 7- 5 3.48 88
6. ChienMing Wang 14- 9 3.87 73 (DL)
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Mariano Rivera 4-3 2.16 60 35-39
RP Kyle Farnsworth 4-5 4.18 81 5-
RP Scott Proctor 5-4 3.89 73 2-
RP Luis Vizcaino 3-4 3.93 59 2-
RP Brian Bruney 1-2 4.12 42 -
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Phil Highes SP
2. Humberto Sanchez SP
Blue Jays
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Reed Johnson LF .282 – 10 – 48 – 8 – 64
2. Lyle Overbay 1B .309 – 25 – 98 – 3 – 96
3. Vernon Wells CF .290 – 30 – 104 – 11 – 106
4. Frank Thomas DH .278 – 35 – 106 – 0 – 79
5. Troy Glaus 3B .257 – 36 – 106 – 4 – 105
6. Alex Rios RF .296 – 19 – 87 – 17 – 90
7. Greg Zaun C .264 – 12 – 53 – 0 – 47
8. Aaron Hill 2B .287 – 7 – 56 – 6 – 75
9. Royce Clayton SS .260 – 4 – 48 – 13 – 68
Bench
Matt Stairs 1B/COF .250 – 11 – 42 – 0 – 33
Adam Lind COF/DH .297 – 14 – 60 – 1 – 49
Russ Adams MIF .262 – 5 – 31 – 6 – 37
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Roy Halladay 18- 6 2.59 192
2. A.J. Burnett 14-10 3.55 190
3. Gustavo Chacin 11-11 4.30 129
4. Tomo Ohka 6- 8 4.51 77
5. John Thomson 7- 9 4.54 98
6. Shawn Marcum 4- 6 4.65 46
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL B.J. Ryan 2-3 2.06 95 37-42
RP Jason Frasor 3-3 4.02 56 –
RP Brandon League 3-2 3.32 42 2 -
RP Josh Towers 5-7 4.77 49 -
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Adam Lind COF/DH
2. Dustin McGowan SP
Devil Rays
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Carl Crawford LF .311 – 22 – 86 – 52 – 111
2. Ben Zobrist SS .284 – 7 – 68 – 12 – 79
3. Rocco Baldelli CF .306 – 25 – 102 – 23 – 102
4. Ty Wiggington 1B .259 – 19 – 82 – 5 – 65
5. Greg Norton DH .268 – 10 – 41 – 0 – 38
6. Jorge Cantu 2B .276 – 23 – 84 – 1 – 67
7. Delmon Young RF .283 – 18 – 82 – 29 – 88
8. Aki Iwamaru 3B .279 – 14 – 65 – 6 – 68
9. Dioner Navarro C .271 – 10 – 47 – 2 – 53
Bench
Jonny Gomes COF/DH .266 – 26 – 67 – 5 – 62
B.J. Upton OF/INF .274 – 8 – 48 – 27 – 61
Elijah Dukes OF .277 – 7 – 30 – 9 – 38
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Scott Kazmir 15- 8 3.37 217
2. Casey Fossum 7- 9 4.56 110
3. James Shields 13-10 4.18 147
4. Jae Seo 7-10 4.36 93
5. Edwin Jackson , 5- 7 4.76 74
6. J.P. Howell 6- 9 4.12 61
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Seth McClung 3-5 3.80 56 12-17
RP Shawn Camp 4-4 4.32 50 -
RP Ruddy Lugo 2-3 4.09 46 -
RP Dan Miceli 2-3 4.28 39 11-16
RP Brian Stokes 3-4 3.93 58 10-14
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Delmon Young RF
2. B.J. Upton SS
3. Edwin Jackson/J.P. Howell SP
Orioles
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Brian Roberts 2B .293 – 13 – 60 – 37 – 97
2. Melvin Mora 3B .281 – 17 – 85 – 8 – 98
3. Nick Markakis RF .305 – 21 – 84 – 5 – 92
4. Miguel Tejada SS .324 – 29 – 107 – 8 – 101
5. Aubrey Huff LF .277 – 25 – 91 – 3 – 79
6. Ramon Hernandez C .276 – 20 – 79 – 0 – 60
7. Jay Gibbons DH .269 – 19 – 72 – 0 – 58
8. Kevin Millar 1B .276 – 12 – 56 – 1 – 54
9. Corey Patterson CF .278 – 18 – 67 – 43 – 82
Bench
Jay Payton OF .270 – 16 – 59 – 1 – 56
Brandon Fahey Util .272 – 2 – 32 – 21 – 44
Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Erik Bedard 15-10 3.59 178
2. Jaret Wright 10-11 4.40 118
3. Daniel Cabrera 11-13 4.58 163
4. Adam Loewen 9-11 4.59 146
5. Steve Trachsel 10-14 4.64 89
Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Chris Ray 3-5 3.02 59 33-39
RP Danys Baez 3-4 3.56 55 3-
RP Chad Bradford 3-2 3.89 41 -
RP Scott Williamson 3-2 3.86 56 -
Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Hayden Penn SP
2. Val Majewski OF
The 2007 Devil Rays opening day lineup should look a little like this:
1. Rocco Baldelli – CF
2. Delmon Young – RF
3. Carl Crawford – LF
4. Ty Wigginton – 1B
5. Jonny Gomes/Greg Norton – DH
6. Jorge Cantu – 2B
7. Akinori Iwamura – 3B
8. Dioner Navarro – C
9. Ben Zobrist – SS
Bench
Greg Norton – RF/1B/DH
B.J. Upton – 3B/OF/SS/2B/DH
Josh Paul – C
Elijah Dukes – OF
Rocco Baldelli is the catalyst for this team. He’s coming off his best offensive season and it only took him 92 games to do so. His numbers over 600 at-bats projected to .302-26-94-16 with 40 doubles, 10 triples, and 97 runs scored. I see Baldelli putting up numbers similar to that this season, if not a little better. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
149 581 111 178 37 7 25 91 304 36 110 23 3 .351 .523 .306
Delmon Young is the front runner for the American League Rookie of the Year Award not named Matsuzaka. He can be a real force both offensively and defensively. He needs to work on pitch selection and improve his plate discipline if he wants to be a superstar, if not then he’ll have to settle for being just a star. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
145 584 90 165 39 4 18 80 266 31 129 29 6 .324 .455 .283
Carl Crawford is already a superstar, the rest of the league just doesn’t know it yet. Crawford has improved his homers, average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and BB/K ration each year he’s been a full-time starter. Look for Crawford to continue this trend as he is only 25 years old and is getting smarter and better. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
157 618 109 192 26 14 22 96 312 46 81 52 8 .362 .505 .311
Ty Wigginton had a career year last year. No one expected him to hit 24 homers and drive in 79. Wigginton brings an energy and swagger the way Jonny Gomes does. Wiggy is in the last year of his contract and could be dealt for bullpen help to a contender come July. His projected numbers are based on him being traded around late July.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
131 474 59 127 31 1 19 76 217 38 110 5 2 .324 .459 268
Jonny Gomes is my X-factor. If Gomes can come back healthy and start out like he did last year (11 HR in April, 17 before the All-Star break) and remain healthy I see big numbers for him in 2007. I also think he should be moved to 1B but that’s for another day and another blog. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
131 432 63 115 20 2 28 69 223 59 126 5 3 .367 .516 .266
Jorge Cantu is the other X-factor. He set a club record with 117 RBI in 2005 only to have a dismal 2006 that didn’t come close to his 2005 numbers. He could benefit from a move to 1B or DH but the Rays need him at 2B and aren’t giving up on him there. He is completely healthy and vowed to get back to his 2005 form. I believe him! Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
146 560 69 155 38 1 24 90 267 34 80 1 1 .324 .477 .277
Akinori Iwamura is going to play somewhere in this lineup. My prediction is that it will be 3B and he’ll float around to give others days off and to give Upton some games at 3B. It’s hard to project Japanese hitters’ stats into the majors, but I’m gonna give it a shot.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
140 513 73 143 33 5 15 70 231 61 123 6 2 .363 .450 .279
Dioner Navarro is going into this season to prove that he is the Rays catcher of the future. There isn’t anyone pushing for his spot but that could change if he doesn’t play well. He’ll be 23 entering the season. He has a good eye and good patience at the plate, something the Rays need. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
122 430 53 117 20 0 10 47 167 56 70 2 1 .361 .388 .272
Ben Zobrist wants to prove that he belongs in the majors as an everyday shortstop. He went to the Arizona Fall League to work on his hitting and surprised everybody. Zobrist reached base in all 29 games posting a .469 OBP. He also batted .366 with 2 homers and 21 RBI in 101 at-bats. Let’s hope that carries over to the majors in 2007. Projection:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
137 496 72 138 29 3 7 59 194 66 72 12 4 .369 .391 .278
The Devil Rays pitching staff should look a little like this.
1. Scott Kazmir
2. Casey Fossum
3. Jae Seo
4. James Shields
5. Brian Stokes
CL Seth McClung
RP Dan Miceli
RP Shawn Camp
Scott Kazmir is the ace of this staff. He is not just an ace due to the fact that he starts opening. He’s an ace because he goes out there and duels with the number one guys on any team’s staff. He gives you a chance to win every game. This kid could win a Cy Young in the next 3 years. Here are his projected stats:
W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP BB SO
14 8 3.37 31 31 2 1 201 67 217
Seth McClung did a decent job as the Rays closer at the end of last season, converting 6 out of 7 opportunities. The closer job is his to lose and he could lose it easily if he doesn’t show he can handle the job. Projection.
W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP BB SO
4 6 4.38 51 0 21 26 63 34 54
This is certainly a team to watch. Do I actually think they have a legitimate shot at the AL East? Let me just say, everyone is tied for 1st when the season starts. The odds aren’t stacked in the Rays favor but this should be an exciting, progressive 2007 season for the Rays.
Full team-by-team lineups, projections, and projected standings should come soon.
It’s Fantasy Baseball season! That’s right. Football is over, Spring Training is here, and we’re 30 days away from Opening Day. That officially puts us in Fantasy Baseball Season.
Everyone knows that Albert Pujols should go number one, although I have seen Johan Santana and Alfonso Soriano go first overall. We all know that Paul Bako isn’t going to go in any draft of any type. There are some certainties and there are some question marks.
This blog is about those players who tend to fly under the radar in drafts, players who I believe will break out and will get good value, and players who are going to bust and will not provide proper value at a certain draft spot. I’ll sort it out by position and by league. Here we go with the American League, the National League will be ready in a day or two.
American League
Catcher – Mike Piazza: Piazza seems to be going really late in drafts. I’ve seen Jason Varitek, David Ross, and even Jason Kendall. Piazza is hitting in the American League West this year, as a DH! He should get 500+ at-bats and be able to put up better numbers than last season. Don’t expect Frank Thomas numbers though, you’ll get burned. I’d put him just behind the big guns in the AL.
First Base – Dan Johnson, Lyle Overbay: These are two guys that are having a hard time even getting drafted. I’ve already been in three drafts and Johnson didn’t go in any and Overbay went in the final 3 rounds of two drafts and didn’t go in the third draft. Johnson is a wait and see player. He may need to prove himself in Spring Training but he’s at his prime age and could provide a .285-25-100 season if playing time allows. Overbay has more upside. He has the likes of Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios in his lineup and he will be slotted nicely in the middle. He had career numbers last year (.312-22-92) and he could turn some of those 46 doubles into more homers. Look for him to out up a .300-25-100 season or better.
Second Base – Jorge Cantu, Julio Lugo: Second base is a shallow position, especially after Brian Roberts in the American League. Jorge Cantu reported to camp in excellent shape and worked his rear-end off this offseason, determined to put up better numbers than he did when he went ..286-28-117 in 2005. He’s healthy and is swinging well this spring. Lugo could put up better numbers than Roberts. Lugo has an incredible lineup behind him. He could easily spray balls off the Monster in right all season long. I’d bank on a .285-12-60-25-100 season and get him a couple rounds after Roberts. Cantu can be had in the final 5 rounds.
Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta, Bobby Crosby: Peralta was a huge disappointment last season. Last year he hit just over half the homers, his average was 35 points lower and his RBI were 10 less. He’s finally filled out his frame and should be done growing. He will be flying well below the radar in all casual leagues and even some competitive leagues. He could return to his 2005 form but buy low, don’t jump early on him. Everybody knows what’s wrong with Crosby. Health. He claims to be fully healthy and ready to prove he can be a middle of the order hitter. Crosby was listed by many, including the great Peter Gammons, as pre-season MVP last year. Not exactly fair to him. He’ll go late and provide good number, top 10 shortstop numbers in mixed leagues.
Third Base – B.J. Upton, Alex Gordon: You’re probably thinking to yourself right now “this guy is crazy. B.J. Upton!†That’s right! Mr. Upton is getting a ton of work at third, short, second, and outfield (he’s actually playing RF today in a seven inning intrasquad game). He could be Chone Figgins 12 rounds later. Be careful though, he still could be a bust but I would bet 80/20 he puts up good numbers. Draft him late as a bench player and monitor his progression. Alex Gordon is a beast! If he makes the team out of Spring Training he could win Rookie of the Year. Watch him closely, he’s definitely worth a late round selection on your bench, if he makes the team he belongs as your 3B or UTIL.
Outfield – Rocco Baldelli, Kenny Lofton, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis: If you want the number player that could give you first or second round numbers in eighth round then Rocco Baldelli is your man. I’m not giving this a second thought. I believe Baldelli will put up numbers no worse than .300-25-80-20-100 and he could be a right handed version of Grady Sizemore. Kenny Lofton is going undrafted in a lot of leagues. This old man can still hit, especially now that he is in Arlington and has Young, Teixeira, Blalock, and Kinsler hitting behind him. Lofton could go .300-8-50-30-100 in the last 3 rounds. Curtis Granderson is a talented young hitter. He is determined to cut his strikeouts down this season. If he does that and runs a little more, has the speed to steal 25, he could be in line for .280-25-75-10-95. Markakis has incredible strike zone judgment. He put up good numbers last as a rookie and I’ll bet he puts up better numbers this year. He’ll be hitting 3rd in front of Tejada and Huff and behind Roberts and Mora.
Starting Pitchers – Dan Haren, A.J. Burnett, Matt Garza: Haren is a gamer. With Zito gone and Harden’s health uncertain Danny Haren knows that his team needs him to be huge and he is the type of competitor to rise to the challenge. Look for him to be competing for the AL Cy Young Award. Burnett, when healthy, has some of the best stuff in the game. He has an opt out clause in his contract after the ‘08 season and could be pitching like he’s ready to use it. Look for 14+ wins and 200 K. Matt Garza is a phenomenal young pitcher. He put up numbers consistent to Matt Cain in the minors and projects as a future #2 guy in the rotation. He’s a great option for keeper leagues and a good option in all other leagues. Get him in the final 3 rounds.
Relief Pitchers – Joe Borowski, Seth McClung: If you’re looking for some sleeper saves look no further. Although Borowski hasn’t been named the closer he is most likely to get save opportunities for the Cleveland Indians, the team that I believe will win the AL Central this year. You have to look past Seth McClung’s numbers last year as a starter and look at his relief stats (4-2, 4.43 ERA, 21 K, 21 BB, 22.1 IP, 6 sv in 7 chances) and AAA stats (1-0, 2.20 ERA, 5 sv, 26 K, 2 BB, in 16.1 IP). The Rays are a better team than last year and he should be able to give you plenty of saves as a very late draft choice.
On Valentine’s Day, the love comes out for the greatest game in the world -
Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter: “I think because everybody can relate. You don’t have to be seven feet tall; you don’t have to be a certain size to play. Baseball is up and down. I think life’s like that sometimes, you know. Back and forth, up and down, you’re going through this grind. I think people like watching it. Baseball’s like a soap opera every day.”
Ernie Banks, Cubs legend and Hall of Famer: “It’s just life. When I think about baseball, it’s just life. It’s really the way life is. It requires a lot of mental capacity to be involved in it. It creates a lot of joy for people and memories for people who follow it. It’s a family. You like it because it’s a family. You started with it and know all these people — it’s family, it’s friends, it’s fun, it’s a beautiful game. All in all, baseball is amazing.
Joel Kweskin, 56, White Sox fan based in Charlotte, N.C.: “It’s unique unto itself. Football, basketball and hockey are variations of the same concept — back and forth in a linear progression to score a goal. Baseball, however, is mapped out on the field unlike any other sport. A running back or return specialist can run 100 yards, tops; a baserunner legging out an inside-the-park homer runs 20 yards farther. Baseball is the most democratic of sports — any size can play, and because the ball is not controlled by the offense but rather the defense, every player at any given time is involved in a play. Along with the anecdotally accepted premise that hitting a pitched baseball is the single most difficult thing to do in sports, so might be fielding a 175-mph line drive or grounder down the line. I love baseball because it is the greatest game ever invented.”
Former Royals star Willie Wilson: “The first thing is, I don’t think there’s any criteria for size, so anybody can play. I think people can relate. A lot of people never played football; basketball, you’ve gotta be tall and be able to jump. But baseball is a game where you pick up a bat and a ball, and you catch it, you swing the bat and you hit the ball. Most people have played softball or some kind of baseball, so they can relate to the sport. For me, that’s why I think America just embraces baseball, man.”
Baseball Blogger Travis G.: Where to start? I think better when I make a list.
1. Players. The requirements to be a good baseball player are very undefined. You can be short, tall, thin, chunky, anything really. You name the greats and you get tall and chunky (Ruth, Ortiz), short and chunky (Yogi, Gwynn), tall and thin (Sizemore, Jeter), short and thin (Reyes, Ichiro). They may not be the best athletes (e.g. David Wells), but when they’re playing the best game in the world, who cares?
2. The Mentality. Baseball requires more intelligence than any other sport (save for NFL QB). Simply put, every hitter that steps to the plate is trying to out-think the pitcher, and vice versa. 4-5 times a game, focus has to be completely on the man in front of him. Will he throw a fastball, curve, change? If you take an at-bat (or even a pitch) off, you’re toast. Same thing with the pitcher. The only other sport that comes close is football, but mainly just for the QB. Baseball requires every single player to have good mental capacity.
3. The Field. Football, hockey, basketball and soccer all use essentially the same type of field/playing surface: a rectangle. Baseball uses a diamond. It’s not only unique in that aspect, but every single ballpark is unique amongst the sport. Each park has its own quirks and intricacies that make it special. Not a single other sport can say that. Yankee Stadium has Death Valley, the short RF porch, and the facade. Fenway has the Monster. Shea has the apple. Wrigley has the ivy-covered brick. Pac Bell (or whatever it’s called now) has the bay in RF. Houston has the hill in center. Imagine if the RCA Dome’s field was only 95 yards; that’s the equivalent of Death Valley or the Green Monster.
4. One on One. Basically the speech DeNiro makes in The Untouchables. Baseball is a team game: 25 men. But each of them takes one turn – by themself – to help the whole team. Then the next batter gets a chance. Because of the batting order, a team can’t simply send its best hitter up every at-bat. You can’t just give the ball to Jordan or Shaq (Pujols or Ortiz) every time. A team’s best hitter will get 4-5 chances a game to help his team. That’s it. You need a complete team to win.
5. Substitutions. Once a player is removed, he’s done. You can’t just sub in the best defenders when you have a lead. You can’t take out Santana for an inning because he’s tired, then re-insert him. Could you imagine the way baseball would be played if there were no substitution restrictions? It would be bedlam. Players don’t get any breaks (outside of the DH) during the game. Even late inning defensive replacements are a gamble if the trailing team comes back. And substitutions play an ever bigger role in the NL.
6. No Clock. No running out the clock. It doesn’t matter what inning and what score it is, you still need 27 outs to complete the game. There’s no easy way to ‘seal’ a win. You still have to face every batter, and record every out.
7. History. When Japanese kamikaze pilots flew their planes into American ships, they would often yell ‘Fuck Babe Ruth!’ No other American sport has the history baseball does. Some of the most iconic figures in our culture are Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio, Mantle, Ripken, McGwire, Bonds, Aaron, Clemens, Jeter. It’s goes all the way back to the 1830′s. The ‘Junior Circuit’ (AL) had been going strong for over 45 years before the NBA ever started. The Yankees had already won 20 World Series before the first Super Bowl was ever played. I just love that feeling of history when I watch a game.
8. Summer. What better sport to exemplify the feeling of summer than baseball. The only summer sport we have. Warm weather, kids are out of school; remember the day games with your dad, drinking a soda, eating a hot dog? No other sport lets you enjoy the weather. Hockey and basketball are indoors. And the football season lasts from September to February, nuff said.
9. Connection. This ain’t football where the most ardent fans get to see a maximum of just 24 games (including the pre and post-season). Baseball is 3 hours a day, 6 days a week for 6 months. You get a minimum of 162 games. That’s double basketball and hockey, and 10 times that of football. Not only do you get to see your ‘guys’ 162 times a season, but you actually feel close to them. They’re not wearing masks to cover their faces (football, hockey), so you see (and often share) their reactions and emotions. You don’t get that feeling of ‘closeness’ from other sports. And then when you add the fact that baseball plays 162 games, it’s easy to understand where the connection comes from. When the season is over, it’s like you not seeing your family for 5 months.
10. Home-field Advantage. Having the home team hit in the bottom of each inning assures that every team, every season (even Kansas City) will have its share of thrilling, bottom of the whatever, walk-off wins. It’s nothing like football where you squib kick it or have the QB kneel down, or in basketball where you dribble out the clock or foul the opponent 10 times.
Your thoughts?
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays finished the 2006 season with the league’s worst record. Not exactly what they set out to do. A lot of things went wrong. Injuries kept offensive studs like Jonny Gomes and Jorge Cantu from progressing and injuries hit the pitching staff pretty hard. We never got to see Shinjo Mori. Scott Kazmir was shut down for almost the entire month of September. And Casey Fossum was lost to shoulder surgery. I don’t even want to get on the bullpen and the fact that the team lost the lead in over 60 games last year.
A few things did go right though. Carl Crawford showed glimpses of the power he is developing. Rocco Baldelli came back from missing a season and a half and tore up league pitching with a .302 average and .533 slugging percentage. Ty Wigginton was a diamond in the rough. Greg Norton provided a nice punch late in the year. Our farm system (although I’m tired of referring to it so much due to a lack of major league talent) is ranked numero uno by Baseball America and by ESPN’s Keith Law. And Scott Kazmir dominated the first 5 months of the season.
Those are just a few of the things that went right and went wrong with last season.
Now we can fast forward to 2007. In short, not much has changed. The Rays signed Japanese import Akinor Iwamura, traded for utilityman Brendan Harris, and let underachievers walk: Travis Harper, Brian Meadows, Tomas Perez, and Damon Hollins. The Rays signed relievers Al Reyes and Scott Dohmann, 1B Carlos Pena and Hee-Seop Choi, and catcher Raul Casanova to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training.
I know all the Devil Ray fans are getting pumped now (insert sarcastic tone)! But not to worry, the Rays are headed in the right direction (insert serious tone).
Now that the dismal 2006 season is behind us we can expect great things in 2007, right? Not so fast. Don’t get me wrong now, I think the team will improve and I’m not saying that because they finished last and have nowhere to go but up. I’m saying that because the Devil Rays future looks bright in 2007 and beyond.
The Rays have an incredibly talented outfield. Ranked by ESPN.com as the 8th best in all of the Majors the Rays could finish 2007 with the #1 ranked outfield. Carl Crawford is already a star. He continues to improve every season. If he was on almost any other team every house in America would know who he his. Rocco Baldelli has been slowed by injuries but has 2007 to look forward to completely healthy. Baldelli will bat first most of the season and should provide fire power at the top of the lineup. Delmon Young is a star in the making. He has all the tools a star needs. He is still unproven but he is one of the frontrunners for AL Rookie of the Year.
The Rays also have other young talent. B.J. Upton will be given a chance to play at 3B, SS, OF, and 2B. Ben Zobrist made huge strides in the Arizona Fall League but if he doesn’t pan out the Rays have SS Reid Brignac waiting to take the SS job. Jorge Cantu is coming back from injury. Dioner Navarro is a switch-hitting catcher with good plate discipline and is only 23. Akinori Iwamaru has exceptional talent. And Elijah Dukes, if he can stay out of trouble, is another 5-Tool outfielder. Not too far behind at 3B is Evan Longoria who should make his MLB debut sometime after mid-June.
You say, “all that sounds good but you can’t win without pitching.†You are absolutely right.
The Rays have Scott Kazmir. Everyone knows who this kid is. He has Cy Young Award written all over him. James Shields is emerging as a good pitcher. He has good command of his pitches and walks few. But other than those two the Rays are thin in young pitching talent. Jeff Niemann isn’t far from the majors. He has ace stuff but needs to prove that he can stay healthy if he wants to start in the Majors. The Rays are also loaded with talent at the Single-A level. Jacob McGee and Wade Davis look like they can be solid 2-4 guys in the Bigs. Jeremy Hellickson looks like he has the stuff to get Major League hitters out as well. But the Rays need this talent to emerge very soon. Only Niemann has pitched above A-ball. Look for the Rays to draft Vanderbilt lefty David Price with the first overall pick in this year’s draft. He is polished, has 3 plus pitches, good command, and a frame made for starting pitching. Not to mention that he just beat the #1 ranked Rice this past week. The Rays could have a rotation of Kazmir, Niemann, Price, Davis, and Shields by 2009. McGee would be in that rotation if Niemann is in the bullpen or if one of the other starters struggle. I would put money on that rotation if I was a betting man.
The Rays could be this year’s version of the Florida Marlins, but that would take everything going right. Actually, it would take everything going right and every player playing above expectations. The Rays could approach .500 this year, it’s not out of the realms of possibility. But a playoff spot looks like it won’t happen this year.
You can mark my words right here, right now: The Tampa Bay Devil Rays will be playoff contenders no later than 2009 and should contend for the AL Wild Card in 2008. Don’t sell this team short, if they were in any division other than the AL East they would be contending in 2007.
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