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Using Baseball Musings’ excellent day-by-day database.
I would classify ‘clutch’ hitting as what the player does when his team is down by 3 runs to up by 1. So, from 2004-06, (Arod’s Yankee tenure) he has an overall OPS of .945.
trailing by 3 = .764 OPS
-2 = .774
-1 = 1.090
Tied = .941
Leading by 1 = .926
Trailing .905 (-40)
Tied (-4)
Leading .980 (+35)
Not quite as bad as I would have thought. The discrepancy between leading and trailing hitting could exist because opposing teams generally use their best pitchers when they’re ahead or tied. But to really understand, we have to compare him to his peers.
First, The Captain.
2004-06 OPS .854
-3 = .822
-2 = 1.064
-1 = .870
Tied = .883
+1 = .811
Trailing .896 (+42)
Tied (+29)
Leading .793 (-61)
Other than trailing by 2 or 3 runs, Arod has performed better. Even though Arod hits better when ahead, and Jeter hits better when behind, his trailing stats are still better than Jeter’s. The difference in perception comes from the fact that Jeter hits better (than normal) when trailing, as opposed to Arod who hits worse (than normal) when trailing.
Now let’s look at Adrian Beltre, who is right in the middle of the OPS rankings for the 131 hitters who had at least 300 plate appearances in 2006. He’s also a third-baseman so he will make a good comparison.
2004-06 OPS .841
-3 = .815
-2 = .837
-1 = .878
Tied = .889
+1 = .906
Trailing .850 (+9)
Tied (+48)
Leading .788 (-53)
Beltre is a very nice clutch hitter. He hits better when trailing, and much better in tie games.
And finally David Ortiz, who is supposedly the best clutch hitter in baseball.
2004-06 OPS 1.011
-3 = .945
-2 = 1.158
-1 = 1.057
Tied = 1.084
+1 = 1.012
Trailing 1.023 (+12)
Tied (+73)
Leading .940 (-71)
In conclusion, Arod is the only player among these four who hits worse when trailing and better when leading (over the last three years). Assuming trailing hitting is more important, I certainly wouldn’t call Arod ‘unclutch,’ because he does hit about his normal in tie games, but he is clearly not as ‘clutch’ as Jeter, Beltre or Ortiz. Is there a discernible reason for this? Did Arod hit this way before joining the Yanks? That could let us know if it’s consistent with his career, or whether it’s a New York thing.
Arod 1994-03 OPS 1.014
-3 = 1.105
-2 = .828
-1 = 1.050
Tied = 1.113
+1 = 1.029
Leading .984 (-30)
Tied (+99)
Trailing .967 (-47)
Rather interesting. The biggest difference is Arod’s tied OPS. Before New York, it was 99 points higher than his overall OPS. Since joining New York, it is 4 points lower than his overall OPS. Meanwhile, his ‘trailing’ OPS has been lower than his overall OPS throughout his career. But the only area where he improved since joing New York is his ‘leading’ OPS. This is why some critics say Arod does all his production when the Yanks are already ahead.
Arod has never been a better hitter when trailing, but was a better hitter with the score tied (while his leading hitting is actually better in New York). Perhaps this explains people’s view that Arod does most of his damage early in the game (when the score is most often tied), as opposed to the ‘clutch’ innings of 7-9 (when a tie is less likely). Some people say that an RBI in the 1st inning is just as important as an RBI in the 9th inning. It’s true that a run is a run, but ‘clutch’ hits in late innings are more likely to ensure a win only because there are fewer innings to play: when a team takes a lead in inning 1, it probably has about a 60-70% chance of winning – when it takes a lead in innings 7-9, that probability must go up to 80-100%. I don’t have the exact data, but it’s easy to understand this idea. Late, close RBIs are more important than early RBIs.
Fan Graphs has equations for ‘clutchiness,’ and it’s pretty clear where Arod (and Jeter) stand. In 2006, Jeter was the 4th best clutch hitter, while Arod was the 158th best (or 5th worst, among the 162 qualified hitters). However, in 2005 (Arod’s MVP year), he was 54th in ‘clutchiness’ (barely in the positive), while Jeter was 78th (actually a negative clutch hitter). And in 2004, Jeter was 19th and Arod was 23rd. Over the last 3 years, Jeter is clearly the better clutch hitter. Arod has not necessarily been ‘unclutch,’ but throw in that he’s always compared to Derek ‘Superman’ Jeter (as I am guilty of doing), and that Arod is the highest paid player in baseball, it’s easy to see why he is considered ‘unclutch,’ which is an unfair sentiment. He’s just not as clutch as Jeter or Ortiz.
 The editors at Golf World furnish more proof of their secret crush on Phil Mickelson. Little known Charley Hoffman wins the Bob Hope in improbable style and Mickelson finishes tied for 45th. Somehow Mickelson rates another feature on the Bristol CT magazine’s cover. Again I’ll ask, what is cause of Golf World’s obsession with Lefty? Golfers win major championships, but Phil gets his picture on the magazine’s cover. That happened not once but twice last year. Either GW’s editors are totally out of touch or they have a secret homosexual crush on Lefty. I think its time for Ron Sirak, Tim Rostaforte, John Hawkins and the rest of the GW team to come clean.
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| Wednesday, January 24, 2007 |
There is, naturally, quite a bit of speculation as to who will replace Bill Parcells as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys.
Mickey Spagnola reads between the lines in owner Jerry Jones’ statements and believes “you can probably rule out any college head coach lacking NFL experience. That probably means no Bob Stoops, no Tommy Tuberville, no Houston Nutt, no Les Myles, no Mack Brown. Jones thinks the learning curve is not conducive to picking up where Parcells has left off.”
I hope that’s right.
He thinks Dan Reeves is a strong possibility, despite being aged 63, because of his ties to the Cowboys and his success with young quarterbacks. I certainly wouldn’t complain, as I’ve got a lot of respect for Reeves, who I think is underrated.
Other names he throws out:
Mike Sherman, recently named the offensive coordinator in Houston; Steve Mariucci, working at NFL Network; Wade Phillips, defensive coordinator in San Diego; former Cowboys offensive coordinator Norv Turner; and maybe even former Cowboys assistant Jim Bates, a one-time interim head coach in Miami (2004) recently hired by Denver as assistant head coach. As for some of the guys considered top assistants in waiting of head coach jobs, that would include Rex and Rob Ryan – Buddy’s boys – Indy quarterbacks coach Jim Caldwell, former Giants defensive coordinator Tim Lewis recently hired in Carolina, Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith, Chicago defensive coordinator Ron Rivera.
Rivera would definitely be intriguing. I’m generally not a fan of re-cycling failed ex-coaches and don’t know that much about most of the assistants being mentioned.
Todd Archer reports Jones will interview three in-house candidates: “offensive assistants Tony Sparano and Todd Haley as well as secondary coach Todd Bowles.” He notes, “Jones has promoted from within before, bumping up Dave Campo from defensive coordinator in 2001. Campo, however, had a 15-33 record as coach, prompting Jones to go after Parcells.” Which is precisely why he won’t go in-house again, I think.
Rick Gosselin thinks the key is finding someone who can get the most of out young talent.
With salary-cap limits, you must play youth. That means drafting well and playing them early on. Neither Gibbs nor Parcells grasped that. They tried to win the way they won in the 1980s – with older players.
[...]
Old teams tend to play their best football early in the season when the legs are fresh. The Cowboys faded badly in December.
So Jones won’t be merely changing head coaches in 2007. He’ll be changing philosophies.
Jones needs to find a coach willing to play young players and let them develop – as Jimmy Johnson did in the early 1990s. As Tony Dungy does every year at Indianapolis. Someone who is up to speed with how today’s game is played.
[...]
Caldwell has interviewed for head coaching vacancies at Arizona in 2007 and Buffalo in 2006. So he’s legit. If in fact the Cowboys believe Tony Romo is the answer at quarterback, it’s in their best interest to bring in someone who can accelerate his development.
Caldwell has spent the last five years working with the best quarterback in the NFL – Peyton Manning. So he has plenty of coaching expertise to offer a young quarterback. He also would implement the Indianapolis offense that has ranked in the top three in yards each of the last four seasons.
Norm Chow also would be a consideration. He, too, interviewed at Arizona this month. In the last three seasons, Chow coached Matt Leinart to a Heisman Trophy at Southern Cal in 2004 and Vince Young to NFL Rookie of the Year honors at Tennessee in 2006. So he has plenty to offer an emerging young quarterback, as well.
Like Caldwell, Chow appreciates the need to play and develop youngsters. Having spent 22 seasons in the college game, Chow knows how to turn over a roster every four years. He also was the offensive coordinator on the youngest team in the NFL in 2006 – a Tennessee team that finished 8-8.
Mike Martz would be the proven commodity if Jones wants to hire with his offense and quarterback in mind. Young Brian Schottenheimer (Jets) would be the unproven commodity. Also, Jones has a history with Norv Turner. Never discount history with Jones.
Even bringing Gailey back from Georgia Tech would be a thought. In hindsight, it was a mistake firing him in 1999 after back-to-back playoff appearances.
While the idea of returning to the Gailey era makes me cringe, he’s got a point. I’m not really a Martz fan, either, but the man knows offense.
Given that Charlie Wies is bound up in an incredibly expensive contract to buy out of, going with a proven pro coach makes the most sense. I tend to prefer a young up-and-coming coordinator who could ostensibly coach here for years. Then again, Reeves is intriguing.
Recycling a head coach who has failed before, especially in multiple stops, is among the least attractive options. It worked for the Patriots in Bill Bellichick but it’s not a bet I’d like to make.
Former backup QB (and hero of Thanksgiving Day 1994) is in the Dallas coaching search as a possible OffCoord or even HC. Details here.
Garrett is currently the QB coach at Miami and might be in line for the OffCoord position their as well.
Sports Illustrated finished publishing its list of the top 75 prospects for the 2007 season today.
Alex Gordon from the Royals farm system grabs the top spot, one ahead of Delmon Young, who was the consensus top pick last year before he went all Al Capone on a minor league umpire.
Here’s the SI.com Top Ten:
10. Adam Miller, 22, SP, Cleveland Indians
9. Billy Butler, 21, LF, Kansas City Royals
8. Cameron Maybin, 20, CF, Detroit Tigers
7. Justin Upton, 19, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Chris Young, 23, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Brandon Wood, 22, SS, Los Angeles Angels
4. Philip Hughes, 21, SP, New York Yankees
3. Homer Bailey, 21, SP, Cincinnati Reds
2. Delmon Young, 21, RF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1. Alex Gordon, 23, 3b, Kansas City Royals
Both the Royals and the Diamondbacks land two prospects in the top ten. Tampa Bay and the Colorado Rockies each has six farmhands listed in the top 75, so the fan bases of both teams can look forward to more top prospects underachieving at the major-league level soon.
The facetious “Cowboys Head Coaching List” just had one name removed, Jeff Fisher.
Take Jeff Fisher’s name out of the speculation on who might replace Bill Parcells with the Dallas Cowboys.
The Tennessee Titans have Fisher under contract for 2007 after owner Bud Adams picked up an option on his coach, and the team is working on a long-term extension.
“We haven’t been contacted by Dallas,” chief executive officer Steve Underwood said in a statement Tuesday. “In the event that we were, there are no circumstances that we would grant permission to the Cowboys to speak with Coach Fisher.”
With the resignation of Bill Cowher from Pittsburgh on Jan. 5, Fisher is the NFL’s longest tenured coach with one team. He has spent 12 full seasons with the Titans, a tenure that started with six games in 1994 coaching the then-Houston Oilers with a 110-97 record.
Everyone thought this was a long shot when the rumor first arose as Jeff Fisher is currently one of the longest tenured coach in the NFL and has enjoyed great success from Tennessee and the Titans organization.
The question is being raised though, who will be the Cowboys next head coach?
The A’s and Justin Duchscherer came to an agreement on terms today, avoiding arbitration.
Duke, who made $344,500 in 2006, asked for $1.45 million and was offered $925,000. They didn’t immediately release the numbers, but I’d have to guess that the one year deal is worth somewhere around $1.3 million. Kirk Saarloos asked for nearly the same amount, was offered $925,000, and got a $1.2 million deal. No offense to Saarloos, but Duchscherer is certainly worth more.
[UPDATE: The actual figure is $1,187,500, which is lower than I expected]
The A’s have never liked to go to arbitration with players, with the last case that actually went before an arbiter being the Juan Cruz disaster. Cruz, who had a reputation of having a “major league arm, minor league head”, lost his arbitration case. There was speculation that the process left him with less confidence in himself, which contributed to his decline. Of course, it’s also possible that he just couldn’t find the strikezone with a GPS and a sherpa holding his hand.
Signing Duke, the A’s lone All-Star representative in 2005, was one of the more important goals of the offseason for the A’s. He’s been very reliable and produced great results since moving from the rotation to the bullpen. A large part of his success has come after he developed and refined his cutter. He went from a soft-tossing starter with three pitches to a soft-tossing reliever who makes batters look awful with a huge curveball and diving cutter.
I’ll always remember his performance I witnessed in spring training last year, when Duchscherer fanned seven batters in a row, most on his curve. Speaking of which, this may be heresy for an A’s fan, but I’d wager that Duchscherer has every bit as good a curveball as Barry Zito. Not only that, Duchscherer seems to know how to control his, walking only 28 batters in the last two years, over 141 1/3 innings pitched.
This leaves Bobby Kielty as the lone Athletic waiting to either go to arbitration or sign a one year deal. I’d guess that the A’s sign him to a deal worth around $2.2 million, a raise from the $1.85 he made last year. Kielty will likely see most of his time in a platoon, though, possibly with Rule V draft pick Ryan Goleski.
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| Monday, January 22, 2007 |
With the hiring of Mike Tomlin, it seems that a large percentage of Steelers fans have gone nuts.
Blog ‘N Gold the Post-Gazette’s Steelers blog, has collected an obscene amount of fan reaction. Some of it is positive, some is “wait and see”, some is “trust the Rooneys”, and then you have the “I wanted Russ Grimm” haters.
The haters aren’t happy, not one bit. They say things like this:
The Rooneys need to sell the team and move because they have just destroyed the thing every Steeler fan holds sacred. Russ Grim was the obvious choice, a native, a real football player. Russ did not play for some Bill and Mary School that hasn’t even successful at the IAA level. This Tomlin has never been in the trenches, he wasn’t good enough to make it to the next level. He was an AVERAGE PLAYER AND HAS BEEN AN AVERAGE COACH FOR LOSING TEAMS. Russ on the other hand was good enough to play in the trenches at the next level and knows what it takes to be a HALL OF FAMER. I think the Rooneys need to be checked in the head. I don’t want to hear the sob sorry about this guy either about he is just like Bill Cowher, he’s not Cowher played in the NFL. Good Luck Ruineys, my tickets are for sale.
This is fairly representative. Here’s a few things that this guy, Matt, forgets:
1. Cowher hadn’t had much experience before his hire.
2. Cowher was an average football player, and coached under Marty Shottenheimer, who’s playoff “success” has been well documented.
3. Cowher wasn’t an internal hire. He was from outside of the organization, apparently at a time when Mean Joe Greene, the penultimate Steeler, was available. Looking back, I think that went well.
I love the comments that say “they should have gone from within. That’s what Noll would have done.” These comments ignore the fact that Noll didn’t do that (well, the management above Noll didn’t do that). The Rooneys went with Cowher over internal assistants.
The assumption that is prevalent among the haters is “why are we shaking up a Super Bowl caliber team?” I disagree with the premise. As things stand right now, the Steelers aren’t a Super Bowl caliber team. They won last year, but this was because they got slightly lucky and they had a drive, a motivating force in Jerome Bettis. Sure, he wasn’t the player he once was, but he pushed that team to the big game with his motivation. Without him, and with Cowher wavering, the Steelers lost that edge. A new coach there for the long haul, with something to prove, should provide a spark, especially if the team comes to respect him.
Tomlin is an unknown. However, so is Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm. I personally wasn’t inclined to reward anyone from our offensive unit with this job – they offense went backward this year. Someone from the defense, maybe, but not the offense. The only gripe I have is them passing over Rivera so quickly, but perhaps they had made up their minds after their initial investigation of him, and interviewing him again wasn’t going to change anything. I say give the new guy a chance, and I am looking forward to next season.
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