The John Hart Post-season

If someone would ask who is the most influential general manager in baseball today, many people would answer, Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics. Beane, the one-time prospect, was the first general manager to put the ideas of Bill James to practical use. By using metrics that other organizations ignored, Beane built a team that has been competitive over the past decade despite operating with one of the smallest budgets in the game. Now more teams are using statistical analysis to evaluate their talent, but Beane was the first to do it. (At least this time around. Other teams did it in the past, but there wasn’t a fancy name like Sabermetrics to describe it then.) And Beane had a book written about him. How much more influential can he be?

It’s possible though, that Beane isn’t the answer. In fact an argument could be made that the most influential GM in baseball isn’t even a GM anymore.

John Hart now a special assistant to owner Tom Hicks of the Texas Rangers may have transformed the game even more than Beane has. In fact, it’s the change that Hart introduced that has helped make statistical analysis more accepted throughout the game.

Hart did set an example in the early 90′s as he brought the Cleveland Indians back to respectability and the World Series (twice). He signed his young talent to multi-year contracts before they reached arbitration. He figured that if he locked up players early, he might spend more at the beginning of the deal but spend a lot less than he otherwise would have at the end of the deal.

Back in the day when teams controlled the players (and salaries) Branch Rickey famously said “Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.”

For baseball, things have changed a lot economically in the past half century. Given the popularity of the sport, the free movement that players have achieved and the resulting rising salaries, identifying, signing, developing and keeping talent is the toughest challenge of every major league team. But what Branch Rickey describes that challenge.

What John Hart did in Cleveland was introduce a way to meet that challenge. But what he did behind the scenes was even more interesting.

At the time of the championship series this year, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN wrote John Hart’s family tree.

Excuse Hart if he feels as if his professional life is flashing before his eyes.

His former right-hand man, Dan O’Dowd, is riding a late-season wave with the resurgent Rockies. But first Colorado must get past the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are run by Josh Byrnes, a former front-office assistant in Cleveland at the height of Hart’s regime.

And the Cleveland Indians, the franchise Hart guided to six postseason berths and two World Series appearances from 1995 through 2001, will try to end 59 years of championship futility against Boston. General manager Mark Shapiro, yet another Hart protégé, is the man in charge in Cleveland.

That means three of the four general managers still playing consider Hart a mentor and lifelong influence. Which makes you wonder: How did he miss Theo Epstein?

How’d he develop all of this front office talent?

The John Hart front-office “tree” encompasses more than the three LCS general managers. Neal Huntington, the new GM in Pittsburgh, spent nine years in Cleveland. Paul DePodesta worked for the Indians before moving on to Oakland, the Dodgers and San Diego. And Chris Antonetti, Shapiro’s top assistant, is widely regarded as a GM-in-waiting.

Shapiro has a history degree from Princeton, Byrnes went to Haverford, Huntington is an Amherst graduate and DePodesta went to Harvard. Those academic pedigrees might seem a little highfalutin for the old guard, but Hart found a way to marry the two approaches in Cleveland. Nothing got done until John Goryl, Tom Giordano and the veteran baseball men had their say.

“This isn’t Sabermetrics,” Hart said. “I wanted our guys to hear what the manager says and how tough it is in that dugout, because I’ve been there. I wanted them to respect the old scout in the blue Plymouth who’s going from one city to the next trying to find the next young superstar out of high school or college. They all got schooled on old baseball.”

Antonetti was widely regarded as a future GM someplace else. His name came up as a possibility in St. Louis but Cleveland offered him a deal to stay in place. but look at the academic backgrounds of the men listed above. It appears that John Hart’s innovation to the front office was to introduce the interdisciplinary approach to running a baseball team.

There are still those who deride the statistical approach to baseball. But what Hart showed was that different approaches could be melded together to run a baseball team successfully.

Rob Neyer, in a similar article, four years ago had Hart describe his philosophy.

“My background was field development,” Hart recalls. “But as I noticed the evolvement of the game, I realized that while there were a lot of strengths I was going to bring, if we wanted to have the best organization, we needed to have people around that offered another skill set. When you’re in that position, you worry. You want to be good. And at some point I said to myself, ‘Here’s where we want to be. And if we want to get here, this is what I need. I can’t do this by myself.’ ”

As the new general manager, one of Hart’s first hires was Shapiro. “I knew that Mark had great leadership skills,” says Hart, “in addition to being a Princeton graduate and very bright. But what I wanted to do with Mark was get him to where he was in a leadership position, to where he could go lead a farm department. And the great thing was to get him around the baseball people, the guys that had made a living in the game for so long, the Johnny Goryls and the other 40-year guys. Mark picked it up. He just got it, and the baseball guys established a great confidence in Mark.”

But Crasnick didn’t give Hart enough credit. Hart’s model may well have been copied by the Boston Red Sox. No Theo Epstein didn’t serve under Hart, but he apparently learned quite well from him.

One majored in history at Wesleyan University. One studied psychology at Harvard. One pursued American studies at Colby College. One elected Russian studies and political science, also at Colby.

One managed two hits off future Anaheim Angel Jarrod Washburn as a sophomore at Wesleyan. One had a .301 career average for the Crimson. One began at Colby as an “OK field, no hit” infielder, took up pitching, and won nine games. One tried out for the varsity at Weymouth South High as a junior and was told “I’d made the team, but that I was never going to play.”

One grew up in Plymouth, N.H., one in Swampscott, one in Walpole, N.H., the other in Weymouth, all fans of the Boston Red Sox.

Today, they constitute much of the organization’s underpinning, literally and figuratively. Literally, they are based underground, below the Fenway Park box office at the corner of Brookline Avenue and Yawkey Way. Figuratively, they get the necessary and complex work — contracts, arbitration casework, player recruitment, advance scouting, and more — done.

But there was another way that John Hart influenced the Red Sox this year. Not in the front office but on the bench.

When he was a younger manager with the Phillies, Francona did little to distinguish himself. In four years on the job, Francona never managed more than 77 wins in a season, and by the end of his tenure he’d lost control of the team. There were also concerns that Francona overused his young pitchers in the service of, well, not much of anything. After the smoke cleared, it appeared that Francona had squandered his opportunity.

However, he then spent time in the Cleveland Indians front office and as the bench coach for the Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s. In those roles, Francona learned new approaches to the game — namely, the value of statistical analysis when it comes to making baseball decisions. Certainly, Francona never abandoned his traditionalist bearing, but his time in progressive organizations like Cleveland and Oakland helped him learn to blend approaches. That rare skill impressed the new regime in Boston when they interviewed Francona for their vacant managerial post.

At the time of his hiring, Francona’s managerial record was pocked with failure, and he was viewed by fans and media as an uninspired choice; you may recall a similar reaction when Torre was named Yankees manager. Of course, Francona promptly proved them all wrong.

Dayn Perry, who wrote the article, also noticed what I did: the similarity of the Francona signing with the Red Sox to the Torre signing by the Yankees. Each came in with a less than impressive managing career, but both emerged as top managers. Francona, was prepared for his new position, in part, by learning the Hart approach to baseball.

Baseball Musings noted something about Francona right after he was hired.

I always thought this was Buck Showalter’s strength with the Yankees, using players in situations in which there was a high probability of them succeeding. If that’s Terry’s philosophy as well, he’ll do well with the Red Sox.

So it can reasonably be argued that John Hart’s influence extended to all four teams to reach the championship series this year. And with another Hart protege now running the show in Pittsburgh the interdisciplinary approach to running a ballclub continues to spread.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

Umpires vs. technology

As I’ve said before, umpires need help. And I refer you to a piece I wrote over a year ago on this very same subject. Baseball (and sports in general) is far behind the times in utilizing modern technology where it can, specifically to improve officiating.

I’ve thought about this topic for a long time. I think Questec is a good thing. (For those who dont know, it’s a computerized system that measures ball & strikes, and compares it to what the umpire actually called.)

One of the biggest and most frustrating problems in pro sports are bad calls by umps/refs. What I’d like to see is the steady removal of the so-called ‘human error’ from sports; I’ll talk specifically about baseball:

When umps are unsure when a ball is fair or foul down the line, why can’t a system be installed like they use in tennis? They could use technology to determine whether balls are just that, fair or foul.

Also, on disputed HRs, they must use instant replay. There’s no other fair way. An ump should be stationed in the park somewhere near a TV, like in the NHL. He should have the final word, since he’ll have access to the replay.

On balls and strikes, why not use Questec or ESPN’s ‘K-Zone’ (for example) to actually call the strikes? The only problem is that strike zone height is different for every hitter, but width is exactly the same, 17 inches (the width of homeplate). Rickey Henderson had a smaller up/down zone because he was short and crouched, and Richie Sexson’s up/down zone is bigger because he’s 6’8″. But their side-to-side zone is exactly the same. Therefore, computers/technology should be used to tell an umpire when a ball hits the plate or just misses. For the time being, umps will still need to call the up/down pitches (because every hitter is different), but will know for sure when a pitch crosses the corner or not. Or an ump could be assigned to determine the upper limit of each hitter’s strike zone dependent on his stance.

It also sucks when a pitcher throws a strike, but it’s not where he meant to throw it, the catcher has to reach for it, so the ump automatically calls it a ball. It doesn’t matter where the pitcher MEANT to throw the ball, it only matters whether it’s a strike or a ball.

For out/safe calls, when the closest ump feels the play is too close to call, he could send it to the ‘booth ump.’ TV technology is such today that it could be done in 30-60 seconds. Or (ala the NFL) managers should have two replays to use per game.

These steps would help legitimize the officiating and would make for fewer arguments from players and managers. You can’t argue with Questec strikes – it’s 100% consistent and 0% prejudiced (for veterans, or against rookies). Instant replay would also ensure the right call, and isn’t that worth waiting (at most) 60 seconds for – especially in close and/or playoff games?

A’s Designate Milton Bradley for Assignment

According to ESPN, the A’s have designated OF Milton Bradley for assignment, which all but ends his career with Oakland.

The Oakland Athletics designated outfielder Milton Bradley for assignment Thursday, cutting ties with a player who was expected to play an important role on the team this season.

Bradley had been on the disabled list three times this year and was frustrated that the team waited two extra days to activate him this week because of uncertainty about third baseman Eric Chavez’s health.

Asked Tuesday how he was feeling, Bradley curtly responded, “I’m healthy and on the bench.” Bradley was activated from the DL the following day and went 0-for-3 with a walk.

The A’s have 10 days to trade or release Bradley. Because he has more than three years of major league service time, Bradley can refuse an assignment to the minor leagues.

“It’s an unfortunate situation,” said Bradley’s agent, Sam Levinson. “Milton is healthy and looking forward to helping some club win many games this season.”

I am sure Milton will land with another team as he is a quality ball player. A team like the Twins who need a real bat in LF would be great, although I am not sure many teams would want to put up with his poor clubhouse presence. Another suitor if he made it to the waiver wire could be the Pirates. Bradley would be a huge upgrade in CF over the current platoon of Duffy/Nady/Bautista.

It is a contract year for Bradley, and he would be playing to earn a great contract if he can catch on with a team (and behave himself) for the rest of this season.

Curt Schilling Almost Has a No-Hitter

Curt Schilling came within one out of his first career no-hitter Thursday, losing his bid when Shannon Stewart lined a clean single to right field in Boston’s 1-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics.

Schilling was a model of efficiency, pounding the strike zone reaching a three-ball count only once. He got the A’s to hit routine fly balls to the spacious Coliseum outfield, recording 12 of his outs in the air. He also struck out four in the 100-pitch outing — his first shutout since May 14, 2003, for Arizona against Philadelphia, and first complete game since 2004.

A’s sign Swisher to 5yr extension

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA (TICKER) — One day after flexing their offensive muscles, the Oakland Athletics secured the long-term future of slugger Nick Swisher.

The Athletics on Friday agreed to terms with Swisher on a five-year contract extension through the 2011 season with a club option for 2012.

Financial terms were not disclosed.

The news came less than 24 hours after Oakland pounded a season-high six home runs in Thursday’s 17-3 rout of the Kansas City Royals. The A’s also established season highs for runs and hits (18) in the contest.

Ironically, the switch-hitting Swisher did not join in on the fun, going 0-for-2 with a walk before being replaced by Todd Walker in the fifth inning.

Despite his quiet outing against Kansas City, the 26-year-old Swisher is one of Oakland’s top power hitters. The outfielder is batting .286 with a team-leading six homers and 17 RBI this season, posting a .426 on-base percentage in 27 games.

A first-round draft pick in 2002, Swisher enjoyed a breakthrough campaign in 2006, batting .254 with career bests of 35 homers and 95 RBI. He is a career .249 hitter with 64 homers in three-plus seasons with the A’s. – yahoo.com

This is a wonderful move by the Billy Beane and the A’s. Nick Swisher was once considered the poster child of “Moneyball”, and will not have to live in the shadows of that book.

Swisher has real Big-League power, great plate discipline, and is a great leader on the field and in the clubhouse. Locking Swisher up for the next 5-6 years is indication that the team is serious about winning. They are building a new stadium in Fremont and they need a contender when they get in.

The A’s still have a few other things they need to do. Eric Chavez has been the poster boy for the A’s and has been a fixture in the lineup for years. He may not be around to see the new stadium. The A’s have these players locked up: Eric Chavez (2010, club option 2011), Bobby Crosby (2009), Alan Embree (2008, club option 2009), Rich Harden (2008, club option 2009), Dan Haren (2009, club option 2010), Mark Kotsay (2008), Esteban Loaiza (2008, club option 2009).

The A’s have a group of yongsters here, just arriving, and on the way: outfielders Travis Buck, Danny Putnam, Javier Herrera, and Jermaine Mitchell. Pitchers Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Jason Windsor, and Dan Meyer. 1B/DH Daric Barton. Plus young catchers Kurt Suzuki and London Powell.

Billy Beane and the A’s have use a formula that has set this team up to win both now and in the future and Nick Swisher is a key part of the equation.

Ryan Langerhans Traded Again

Ryan Langerhans is a man on the move. Sunday, he was traded from the Braves to the A’s. Wednesday, he was traded to the Nats.

Outfielder Ryan Langerhans was traded Wednesday night for the second time in a week, going from the Oakland Athletics to the Washington Nationals for outfielder Chris Snelling. Langerhans, obtained Sunday from Atlanta, went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and a walk against Boston in two games for Oakland. He started both games in center field and misplayed a liner for an error that led to a run in the Red Sox 6-4 win Wednesday.

Quite a plummeting in the stock of a guy who looked to be a big time pro when first called up by the Braves a couple years back.

2007 AL West Stat Projections

AL West Predictions

1. Oakland A’s
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

Athletics
Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Jason Kendall C .298 – 2 – 54 – 10 – 79
2. Shannon Stewart LF .288 – 7 – 55 – 8 – 62
3. Milton Bradley CF .302 – 18 – 73 – 14 – 81
4. Eric Chavez 3B .278 – 30 – 98 – 5 – 89
5. Mike Piazza DH .286 – 25 – 81 – 0 – 67
6. Nick Swisher RF .277 – 36 – 109 – 3 – 113
7. Bobby Crosby SS .273 – 21 – 78 – 9 – 76
8. Dan Johnson 1B .281 – 19 – 72 – 0 – 67
9. Mark Ellis 2B .285 – 13 – 60 – 6 – 76

Bench
Bobby Kielty OF .268 – 9 – 42 – 3 – 40
Marco Scutaro INF .259 – 5 – 30 – 5 – 36
Mark Kotsay CF .279 – 5 – 40 – 4 – 48

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Danny Haren 16-11 3.53 182
2. Rich Harden 12- 9 3.16 159
3. Esteban Loaiza 12-12 4.37 132
4. Joe Blanton 14-12 4.21 112
5. Joe Kennedy 10-13 4.26 106

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Huston Street 4-2 2.72 74 38-43
RP Justin Duchscherer 3-2 2.94 66 4-
RP Kiko Calero 4-2 2.96 63 2-
RP Alan Embree 2-3 3.42 41 -
RP Chad Gaudin 3-3 3.82 39 -

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Daric Barton 1B/DH
2. Travis Buck COF
3. Jason Windsor P

Angels

Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Gary Matthews Jr.CF .274 – 14 – 62 – 8 – 81
2. Orlando Cabrera SS .279 – 11 – 68 – 26 – 93
3. Vlad Guerrero RF .336 – 34 – 121 – 12 – 103
4. Garret Anderson LF .276 – 18 – 80 – 0 – 59
5. Shea Hillenbrand DH .282 – 21 – 83 – 0 – 76
6. Howie Kendrick 2B .311 – 14 – 82 – 18 – 80
7. Mike Napoli C .246 – 22 – 60 – 2 – 58
8. Casey Kotchman 1B .275 – 9 – 36 – 2 – 24
9. Chone Figgins 3B .284 – 9 – 36 – 57 – 104

Bench
Macier Izturis 3B/SS/2B .278 – 5 – 40 – 12 – 53
Juan Rivera DH/COF .288 – 15 – 62 – 1 – 57 (DL)
Kendry Morales 1B/DH .278 – 10 – 43 – 0 – 35

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. John Lackey 15- 9 3.46 192
2. Kelvim Escobar 12-11 3.87 160
3. Ervin Santana 13-11 4.32 151
4. Jared Weaver 12- 9 3.68 158
5. Bartolo Colon 10- 9 4.36 127

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Fran Rodriguez 3-3 2.16 96 46-51
RP Scott Shields 5-4 2.74 92 5-
LP Darren Oliver 3-5 4.46 55 -
LR Hector Carrasco 5-4 4.02 68 -
RP Justin Speir 3-4 3.92 5 -

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Brandon Wood SS/3B
2. Eric Aybar SS
3. Joe Saunders SP
4. Jeff Mathis C

Rangers

Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Kenny Lofton CF .305 – 5 – 51 – 26 – 97
2. F. Catalanotto LF/DH .302 – 8 – 57 – 1 – 68
3. Michael Young SS .312 – 19 – 96 – 8 – 112
4. Mark Teixeira 1B .289 – 38 – 120 – 2 – 109
5. Hank Blalock 3B .274 – 23 – 93 – 1 – 85
6. B. Wilkerson DH/LF .256 – 17 – 60 – 5 – 70
7. Nelson Cruz RF .246 – 16 – 58 – 7 – 54
8. Gerald Laird C .279 – 13 – 48 – 4 – 56
9. Ian Kinsler 2B .287 – 18 – 71 – 16 – 86

Bench
Sammy Sosa OF/DH .256 – 12 – 38 – 0 – 30
J. Hairston Jr. 2B/3B/OF .249 – 2 – 22 – 8 – 34
Jason Botts 1B/COF .276 – 9 – 36 – 0 – 34
Joaquin Arias INF .275 – 2 – 19 – 6 – 27

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Kevin Millwood 16-13 3.92 155
2. Vicente Padilla 13-12 4.46 142
3. Brandon McCarthy 11-13 4.26 131
4. Robinson Tejada 10-12 4.39 119
5. Jon Koronka 8-11 4.96 91

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL Eric Gagne 3-3 2.67 60 23-26
RP Akinori Otsuka 4-3 3.11 64 9-
RR Kameron Loe 5-6 4.62 56 -
RP Rick Bauer 3-4 4.12 38 -

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Nelson Cruz COF
2. Jason Botts 1B/DH/COF
3. Joaquin Arias INF

Mariners

Projected Stats
Projected Lineup AVG HR RBI SB R
1. Ichiro Suzuki CF .341 – 13 – 60 – 42 – 115
2. Adrian Beltre 3B .274 – 26 – 92 – 10 – 88
3. Jose Vidro DH .283 – 6 – 53 – 2 – 58
4. Richie Sexson 1B .268 – 37 – 111 – 1 – 86
5. Raul Ibanez LF .282 – 25 – 93 – 2 – 91
6. Kenji Johjima C .287 – 19 – 78 – 3 – 61
7. Jose Guillen RF .269 – 17 – 68 – 2 – 60
8. Jose Lopez 2B .276 – 12 – 76 – 6 – 74
9. Y. Betancourt SS .274 – 7 – 45 – 13 – 66

Bench
Ben Broussard 1B/DH .271 – 15 – 54 – 1 – 48
Willie Bloomquist Util .264 – 3 – 29 – 18 – 41
Jeremy Reed OF .282 – 7 – 39 – 9 – 46

Rotation W- L ERA SO
1. Felix Hernandez 13-11 3.83 185
2. Jarrod Washburn 12-10 4.09 110
3. Miguel Batista 10-12 4.35 118
4. Jeff Weaver 10-13 4.46 128
5. Horacio Ramirez 10-11 4.20 76

Bullpen W- L ERA SO SV-SVO
CL J.J. Putz 3-2 2.89 92 34-39
RP Julio Mateo 5-4 3.57 46 -
RP Chris Reitsma 3-5 4.40 37 3-
RP George Sherrill 2-3 3.81 48 –
RP Arthur Rhodes 1-2 4.57 31 1-

Prospect who can impact the 2007 season
1. Adam Jones CF
2. Jeff Clement C/1B

2007 AL Fantasy Sleepers

It’s Fantasy Baseball season! That’s right. Football is over, Spring Training is here, and we’re 30 days away from Opening Day. That officially puts us in Fantasy Baseball Season.

Everyone knows that Albert Pujols should go number one, although I have seen Johan Santana and Alfonso Soriano go first overall. We all know that Paul Bako isn’t going to go in any draft of any type. There are some certainties and there are some question marks.

This blog is about those players who tend to fly under the radar in drafts, players who I believe will break out and will get good value, and players who are going to bust and will not provide proper value at a certain draft spot. I’ll sort it out by position and by league. Here we go with the American League, the National League will be ready in a day or two.

American League

Catcher – Mike Piazza: Piazza seems to be going really late in drafts. I’ve seen Jason Varitek, David Ross, and even Jason Kendall. Piazza is hitting in the American League West this year, as a DH! He should get 500+ at-bats and be able to put up better numbers than last season. Don’t expect Frank Thomas numbers though, you’ll get burned. I’d put him just behind the big guns in the AL.

First Base – Dan Johnson, Lyle Overbay: These are two guys that are having a hard time even getting drafted. I’ve already been in three drafts and Johnson didn’t go in any and Overbay went in the final 3 rounds of two drafts and didn’t go in the third draft. Johnson is a wait and see player. He may need to prove himself in Spring Training but he’s at his prime age and could provide a .285-25-100 season if playing time allows. Overbay has more upside. He has the likes of Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios in his lineup and he will be slotted nicely in the middle. He had career numbers last year (.312-22-92) and he could turn some of those 46 doubles into more homers. Look for him to out up a .300-25-100 season or better.

Second Base – Jorge Cantu, Julio Lugo: Second base is a shallow position, especially after Brian Roberts in the American League. Jorge Cantu reported to camp in excellent shape and worked his rear-end off this offseason, determined to put up better numbers than he did when he went ..286-28-117 in 2005. He’s healthy and is swinging well this spring. Lugo could put up better numbers than Roberts. Lugo has an incredible lineup behind him. He could easily spray balls off the Monster in right all season long. I’d bank on a .285-12-60-25-100 season and get him a couple rounds after Roberts. Cantu can be had in the final 5 rounds.

Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta, Bobby Crosby: Peralta was a huge disappointment last season. Last year he hit just over half the homers, his average was 35 points lower and his RBI were 10 less. He’s finally filled out his frame and should be done growing. He will be flying well below the radar in all casual leagues and even some competitive leagues. He could return to his 2005 form but buy low, don’t jump early on him. Everybody knows what’s wrong with Crosby. Health. He claims to be fully healthy and ready to prove he can be a middle of the order hitter. Crosby was listed by many, including the great Peter Gammons, as pre-season MVP last year. Not exactly fair to him. He’ll go late and provide good number, top 10 shortstop numbers in mixed leagues.

Third Base – B.J. Upton, Alex Gordon: You’re probably thinking to yourself right now “this guy is crazy. B.J. Upton!” That’s right! Mr. Upton is getting a ton of work at third, short, second, and outfield (he’s actually playing RF today in a seven inning intrasquad game). He could be Chone Figgins 12 rounds later. Be careful though, he still could be a bust but I would bet 80/20 he puts up good numbers. Draft him late as a bench player and monitor his progression. Alex Gordon is a beast! If he makes the team out of Spring Training he could win Rookie of the Year. Watch him closely, he’s definitely worth a late round selection on your bench, if he makes the team he belongs as your 3B or UTIL.

Outfield – Rocco Baldelli, Kenny Lofton, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis: If you want the number player that could give you first or second round numbers in eighth round then Rocco Baldelli is your man. I’m not giving this a second thought. I believe Baldelli will put up numbers no worse than .300-25-80-20-100 and he could be a right handed version of Grady Sizemore. Kenny Lofton is going undrafted in a lot of leagues. This old man can still hit, especially now that he is in Arlington and has Young, Teixeira, Blalock, and Kinsler hitting behind him. Lofton could go .300-8-50-30-100 in the last 3 rounds. Curtis Granderson is a talented young hitter. He is determined to cut his strikeouts down this season. If he does that and runs a little more, has the speed to steal 25, he could be in line for .280-25-75-10-95. Markakis has incredible strike zone judgment. He put up good numbers last as a rookie and I’ll bet he puts up better numbers this year. He’ll be hitting 3rd in front of Tejada and Huff and behind Roberts and Mora.

Starting Pitchers – Dan Haren, A.J. Burnett, Matt Garza: Haren is a gamer. With Zito gone and Harden’s health uncertain Danny Haren knows that his team needs him to be huge and he is the type of competitor to rise to the challenge. Look for him to be competing for the AL Cy Young Award. Burnett, when healthy, has some of the best stuff in the game. He has an opt out clause in his contract after the ‘08 season and could be pitching like he’s ready to use it. Look for 14+ wins and 200 K. Matt Garza is a phenomenal young pitcher. He put up numbers consistent to Matt Cain in the minors and projects as a future #2 guy in the rotation. He’s a great option for keeper leagues and a good option in all other leagues. Get him in the final 3 rounds.

Relief Pitchers – Joe Borowski, Seth McClung: If you’re looking for some sleeper saves look no further. Although Borowski hasn’t been named the closer he is most likely to get save opportunities for the Cleveland Indians, the team that I believe will win the AL Central this year. You have to look past Seth McClung’s numbers last year as a starter and look at his relief stats (4-2, 4.43 ERA, 21 K, 21 BB, 22.1 IP, 6 sv in 7 chances) and AAA stats (1-0, 2.20 ERA, 5 sv, 26 K, 2 BB, in 16.1 IP). The Rays are a better team than last year and he should be able to give you plenty of saves as a very late draft choice.

Keith Foulke to Hang ‘Em Up

A radio report out of Cleveland gives no reason why Foulke is deciding to retire and abandon a $5 million salary.

Pitchers and catchers reported to Winter Haven today, all but one of them that is. Keith Foulke will announce his retirement, ending the closer competition before the first practice session even took place. Joe Borowski will be the Tribe 9th inning man after Foulke decided to call it quits. Even though it was called a competition, Foulke was the guy most expected to win the job and be the team’s stopper, the role he had with the Boston Red Sox when they won the World Series in 2004.

Foulke had three rocky years in Boston, highlighted by his remarkable playoff performance in the 2004 ALCS and World Series. As powerful as Manny Ramirez’ bat was, Foulke’s gutty performances were truly the most valuable for the Red Sox as they won that season’s World Series. The following two injury riddled seasons seemed to deflate Keith Foulke, and some quarters of Red Sox fandom soured on the one time hero of the team.

In ten major league seasons Foulke had a 41-34 record with 190 saves and a ERA of 3.30. He didn’t do it with power, instead relying on a deceptive change up to fool batters.