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After the Ravens’ 13-3 playoff run last year, this year’s 4-5 record is a huge disappointment. At this point it’s a better bet that the Ravens will finish 6 – 10 than 10 – 6. In other words, it would be a miracle for this team to make the playoffs.
This has gotten a lot of fans and the media talking about who should stay and who should go. Rick Maese argued after the loss that Billick should go.
That time has come. The most important man not named Lewis in this team’s short history has reached a point of ineffectiveness.
In relation to Billick’s fine career pacing the Ravens’ sideline, the 2007 season feels like an old rock band getting wheeled out on stage long after the music died. Billick’s song has faded. He no longer moves the fans – but that’s not really the problem. Unfortunately, Billick no longer moves his players. There’s no harmony, no new notes. Where we used to bob our heads to the beat, we now shake our heads in defeat.
The column was largely a fan’s rant rather than an analysis. Billick has been a fine coach of the Ravens. He was at the helm for only two years when the team won a Super Bowl. However, looking at his whole record and the one word that comes to mind is “uneven.” Sure he’s had good years as coach, but he’s also had years like 2005, when the team went 6 – 10.
What is it about Billick that’s so frustrating? Mike Preston, put his finger on it.
The Billick defenders will point fingers at current quarterback Steve McNair. That’s the easy way out. The big picture is, what quarterback has prospered under Billick? Even Elvis Grbac, a Pro Bowl performer the year before he came to Baltimore, retired one season after playing here.
I remember that year well. Grbac was terrible in the red zone. (Backup Randall Cunningham was much better there. Or at least that’s what it looked like to me.)
It’s funny that Billick whose experience prior to Baltimore, was offensive coach for the Vikings, has presided over teams lacking in offense. Even 2000, the year the team won the Super Bowl, it looked like it was the defense and special teams that led the team. The offense was just there.
Preston continues:
For years, Billick got a free pass in Baltimore because some of his inadequacies were overlooked. As long as the defense continued to make plays, and the Ravens won, everyone was happy in the Castle.
But it’s different now. Some of the great defensive players are gone or have gotten older. This defense can’t dominate as it used to.
So, after years of riding Newsome’s drafts and the back of middle linebacker Ray Lewis, Billick can’t hold up his end as far as the X’s and O’s. The Ravens can’t overcome his weakness.
Preston doesn’t feel that Billick has to go, however he writes
We’ve heard all the excuses during the past nine years. Billick didn’t have receivers. He didn’t have a quarterback. He didn’t have athletic offensive linemen. He didn’t have a running back.
Blah, blah, blah. … Enough, please.
It’s time general manager Ozzie Newsome and Bisciotti delivered the ultimatum to Billick. Either he guts this system, or he goes.
But Billick isn’t the only Raven with a question mark hanging over him.
After last week’s game there was a question whether or not Steve McNair would continue being the team’s #1 quarterback. At the time David Steele answered in the negative.
Before the game, Steve McNair spoke up for himself. After the game, his teammates spoke up for him.
But his actions have spoken louder than any of their words. His actions are screaming out: This is the end. For McNair as the Ravens’ starting quarterback, and for the Ravens as the Super Bowl contenders he was supposed to have turned them into.
The answer for now has been answered by a very convenient injury to McNail meaning that he will be sidelined for at least the next few weeks. That would be enough time to evaluate what Kyle Boller’s value is to the team. (This is not longer an issue of potential. We’re way past that stage.)
So how can we expect Boller to perform? There’s been a lot of dissension. Even among those who feel that Boller is better than McNair for now, there seems to be little support for Boller as quarterback of the future. Except for Bill Ordine.
Putting it briefly, A) Boller has generally had to play under exceptionally adverse circumstances; B) He sill has a big-time arm that’s plenty rare; and C) Drafting quarterbacks is always an iffy proposition and now we’re looking at a crop of college QBs that lacks the blue-chippers of the last few years. (Free agent wise, I give you Vinny Testaverde and Tim Rattay).
Further on Ordine warns,
And there’s one more thing. Don’t expect Boller to work miracles in these last seven games. The Ravens have the toughest stretch of games imaginable. Boller is probably going to be playing from behind in most of them with all the disadvantages that implies. And the offensive line is not playing anywhere near as well as it did last season (14 regular-season sacks in 2006 and 17 so far in ’07). That means the bottom line on Boller will have to be weighted to reflect these realities.
So here’s the conclusion. Unless Boller absolutely comes apart at the seams or John Elway magically appears in the draft or as a free agent (oops, bad example), a fair decision on whether he’s a genuine playoff-caliber quarterback should wait until the end of 2008.
So how does the prognosis for each work out?
Billick – iffy.
McNair – iffy.
Boller – iffy.
Not very encouraging. Of all three, Boller appears to be in the best position. His future is largely in his own hands.
McNair’s comments that if he were replaced he couldn’t blame the team suggest that he is done. While it’s admirable for him to take responsibility, athletes who realize that there are better options than themselves are usually finished.
And Billick? I’m uncomfortable saying that the coach is at fault. However he’s had only 4 winning seasons in eight so far. The team has never been so far away from contention that he hasn’t been able to redeem himself.
Arguing for keeping him is that the team’s performance last year earned him a 4 year extension suggesting that owner Steve Biscotti realizes that his commitment is long term and is willing to take some lumps along the way.
Arguing against his continued service as Ravens coach is, I guess, Rex Ryan.
The Ravens know what is at stake for Ryan. He almost became the head coach of the San Diego Chargers in the offseason.
Since he became the Ravens’ coordinator in 2005, the team has had the No. 2- and No. 1-ranked defenses in the league. With one more good season — the Ravens are currently ranked fifth — Ryan will become a top head coaching candidate again.
If Billick is fired, Ryan would become a serious candidate here, especially because he is so popular with the players.
The Ravens have lost a lot of talented coaches over the years for head coaching jobs elsewhere. True, the results of those moves have been mixed. It also speaks well of the franchise that it recognizes coaching talent. But maybe now it’s time for the Ravens to say, “enough” and give one of their coaching stars the chance to be promoted.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
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| Wednesday, October 24, 2007 |
The California wildfires have forced half a million people to flee their homes, so football is certainly low on the totem poll of concerns in the situation. Still, the San Diego Chargers have had to deal with the effects of the fire on their families, the use of their stadium as an emergency housing facility, and travel to Arizona so that they could practice for their “home” game against the Houston Texans in breathable air. Now, it looks like they’ll have to play their “home” game in Texas.
The Chargers expect to hear today from Mayor Jerry Sanders whether they can play their scheduled game against the Houston Texans in Qualcomm Stadium, and they are narrowing down contingencies for playing elsewhere. “The Chargers are working closely with Mayor Sanders and the fire and police departments to determine how best to deal with Sunday’s scheduled NFL game at Qualcomm Stadium,†the team said in a statement. “Protecting the public safety is the mayor’s top goal, and the Chargers will continue to cooperate with the mayor to achieve this goal.â€
[...]
Among the issues with playing the game at Qualcomm Stadium are air quality, the availability of police and other support personnel and the fact that several thousand evacuees are currently housed at the stadium.
The Chargers and the NFL are also considering whether playing the game in San Diego is in the best interest of the community. It appears likely the Chargers will end up playing in Texas Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys, if they can’t play at home, sources said last night. The Cowboys have a bye Sunday. Dallas makes sense because the game would likely draw more fans than would a game in Arizona, which would ease the financial losses the Chargers will incur. Also, the Chargers would count on the fact LaDainian Tomlinson is from Waco and went to school at nearby TCU, as well as Dallas fans’ acrimony for Houston, to ensure the crowd is not pro-Texans.
The Chargers do have an insurance policy that covers lost gate receipts, but the deductible is extremely high. The team can generally expect a home game to bring a gate of more than $7 million.
Team President Dean Spanos has met several times over the past two days with league Commissioner Roger Goodell, as well as other league and network executives. All are in Philadelphia for league meetings.
The commissioner said yesterday the Chargers and the league are also considering playing in Los Angeles, Phoenix or Houston.
The chief issues working against the game being in Los Angeles are the unpredictability of the Southern California fires and the logistics of staging a game in a non-NFL stadium. An NFL game requires high-definition replay equipment for game officials. The same would presumably be an issue at Arizona State’s Sun Devil Stadium. The Chargers played at ASU in 2003 when the wildfires in San Diego forced them to move a Monday night game against the Miami Dolphins, but Sun Devil Stadium was then the home of the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals’ University of Phoenix Stadium is not available Sunday because it is the site of a motorcycle convention.
The game could be played at Houston’s Reliant Stadium. That would likely guarantee a big gate, but the Chargers are concerned about the competitive disadvantage in making the Texans the home team and “would like to avoid†playing there.
A wag at Football Outsiders wonders, “Is there any way we can get the NY Giants an extra home game out of this situation?”
I like this deal.
The Dolphins traded receiver Chris Chambers on Tuesday to San Diego for a second-round pick in this April’s draft, freeing up playing time for two younger receivers who fit in the Dolphins’ long-term plans.
Chambers, 29, made the 2005 Pro Bowl and leads the Dolphins with 415 receiving yards this season on 34 catches, but has largely underachieved since being drafted in the second round in 2001.
“This trade will give some of our younger players at that position, such as Ted Ginn and Derek Hagan, more of an opportunity this year,”
Chambers was a good WR for Miami but 06 was an off year and 2007 hasn’t been all that good. A second round pick if used properly should make this a good deal for Miami.
I’d put Ginn in the lineup and have Hagen as the third wideout. Its time for Miami to see if their 2007 first round pick will produce. Ginn showed some of his promise last Sunday, two excellent kickoff returns, one for a TD. Both ruined by penalties.
2nd year player Hagen can be a good wide receiver, if he can learn to hang onto the ball that is. He hasn’t gotten a great deal of play time because of Chambers and Marty Booker. Note- It was Hagen being called for holding that negated the Ginn Kickoff return for a TD.
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| Wednesday, October 10, 2007 |
There are still three undefeated teams going into Week 6 of the NFL season: the New England Patriots, defending champion Indianapolis Colts, and the surprising young Dallas Cowboys. They top this week’s Power Rankings as determined by the analysts at ESPN.
| 2007 Power Rankings: Week 6 |
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RK (LW) |
TEAM |
REC |
COMMENT |
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1 (1) |
Patriots |
5-0-0 |
The Pats and Cowboys have met just nine times, so history doesn’t figure to influence Sunday’s game. But if it means anything (OK, it really doesn’t), Bill Belichick is just 1-3 vs. Wade Phillips. |
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2 (2) |
Colts |
5-0-0 |
Raise your hand if you figured Kenton Keith and Craphonso Thorpe (hey, no snickering!) would be integral parts of the Colts’ pummeling of the Bucs. Indy has made a habit of these 5-0 starts. |
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3 (3) |
Cowboys |
5-0-0 |
Can a kicker be rookie of the year? Not only did Nick Folk nail the 53-yarder (twice) to beat Buffalo but his execution of the onside kick was flawless. His only missed FG this season was a block by the Bears. |
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4 (6) |
Steelers |
4-1-0 |
Want to see a textbook example of how to protect a lead? Check out what the Steelers did Sunday, holding the ball for nearly 25 of the 30 second-half minutes in their 21-0 win over the Seahawks. |
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5 (4) |
Packers |
4-1-0 |
The Packers, like most teams, aren’t good enough to turn the ball over five times, commit 12 penalties and still win. ‘We’re not a bad football team, but we’re not great either,’ said Brett Favre after the loss to the Bears. |
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6 (8) |
Jaguars |
3-1-0 |
QB David Garrard is doing the things that make coaches sleep easier — basically, he’s not screwing up. Garrard has yet to throw an interception this season, which helps explain why he ranks 4th in QB ratings. |
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7 (7) |
Titans |
3-1-0 |
For the fourth time since Jeff Fisher became head coach, the Titans have started 3-1. Good news for Tennessee: On those three previous occasions, they made the playoffs. |
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8 (13) |
Redskins |
3-1-0 |
The 144 yards allowed to Detroit was the lowest total given up by a Redskins defense in 15 years. It helped that Washington enjoyed a nearly 10-minute edge in time of possession. |
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9 (11) |
Ravens |
3-2-0 |
For the first time since their 2000 Super Bowl season, the Ravens won a game despite scoring only field goals. Injuries to the offensive line might force Baltimore to keep relying on Matt Stover for all its points. |
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10 (5) |
Seahawks |
3-2-0 |
Will having a new lead blocker get Shaun Alexander untracked? Leonard Weaver will be the new lead blocker for Alexander now that 15-year vet Mack Strong is retiring after suffering a herniated disc in his neck. |
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11 (9) |
Buccaneers |
3-2-0 |
If the Bucs are going to be playoff contenders in the second half, they must find a solution (re: trade) to their RB injury woes. Names being mentioned by the Tampa Bay media: Vikings’ Mewelde Moore, Chargers’ Michael Turner, Broncos’ Mike Bell. |
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12 (16) |
Chargers |
2-3-0 |
There are confidence boosters. And then there are CONFIDENCE BOOSTERS. The Chargers got the latter in routing the Broncos and can now move into at least a tie for the AFC West lead by beating the Raiders on Sunday. |
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13 (15) |
Cardinals |
3-2-0 |
With Matt Leinart out and 36-year-old Kurt Warner now the full-time QB, the Cards need a solid backup. But The Arizona Republic reports that it won’t be ex-Cardinal Jake Plummer, who has retired. |
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14 (18) |
Giants |
3-2-0 |
The Giants go into Monday night’s game at Atlanta having won three straight. Inconsistent play is still a troubling sign, though. Eli Manning on Sunday: 22 yards passing in first half, 164 in second half. |
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15 (20) |
Bears |
2-3-0 |
Although the Bears knocked the Packers from the ranks of the unbeatens, just how impressive was the win? The Chicago defense was steamrolled in the first half, and the rushing game produced only 82 yards on 33 attempts. |
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16 (17) |
Texans |
3-2-0 |
Will Kris Brown’s 5-FG performance go down as the greatest kicking day in NFL history? It should. He nailed three from 50-plus yards, including the winner from 57 with one second left to beat the Dolphins. |
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17 (14) |
Panthers |
3-2-0 |
The Panthers are in a precarious state at quarterback. Jake Delhomme is out for the rest of the season. David Carr is banged-up. Undrafted rookie Matt Moore is now the backup. The phone lines will be heating up in Charlotte. |
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18 (12) |
Lions |
3-2-0 |
Take away the fourth-quarter, 34-point explosion against the Bears, and this much-ballyhooed Lions offense has been held out of the end zone in its past 10 quarters. But hey, it can’t be Mike Martz’s fault. After all, he’s an offensive genius. |
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19 (10) |
Broncos |
2-3-0 |
Life figures to get worse before it gets better for the Broncos. They’ve been humiliated at home, have lost three straight and will come out of the bye week with games against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Detroit. |
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20 (24) |
Raiders |
2-2-0 |
Don’t look now, but your AFC West leaders are … the Raiders, the only team without a losing record. The next two games (San Diego, Kansas City) should provide a better picture of just how seriously we should take Oakland. |
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21 (19) |
49ers |
2-3-0 |
The 49ers rank last in the league in time of possession, and with QB Alex Smith hurt, it doesn’t figure to get better. RB Frank Gore ranks 36th in the league in yards per carry (3.6). |
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22 (22) |
Eagles |
1-3-0 |
Only Detroit (27) has allowed more sacks than the Eagles’ 19, but despite facing intense pressure, quarterback Donovan McNabb has thrown just one interception this season. |
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23 (23) |
Bengals |
1-3-0 |
The Bengals hope to repeat their post-bye-week success of 2003 (when they won six of seven after going into the bye 1-4) and 2004 (when they won five of eight after going into the bye 1-3). |
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24 (25) |
Browns |
2-3-0 |
The last time the Browns won two consecutive games was 2003, and they sure weren’t going to do it Sunday at New England. But give the Browns credit for putting up a fight, even though, as 16-1/2 point underdogs, they still failed to beat the spread. |
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25 (21) |
Chiefs |
2-3-0 |
How bad has it gotten in K.C.? Tight end Tony Gonzalez is hoping the final-play TD the Chiefs scored to avoid being shut out by the Jags is ‘something we can build from.’ Well, might be easier if the Chiefs had a running game. |
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26 (30) |
Bills |
1-4-0 |
The Bills fortunately have a bye week to deal with the anguish of losing a game they should’ve won. But as many big plays as Buffalo made against the Cowboys, Dick Jauron correctly pointed out that it needed just one more. |
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27 (27) |
Vikings |
1-3-0 |
A tough stretch awaits the Vikings coming out of their bye week. They face four consecutive playoff teams from 2006, starting with Sunday’s game at Chicago, then must travel to Green Bay in Week 10. Minnesota needs to improve in a hurry. |
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28 (26) |
Jets |
1-4-0 |
Is Chad Pennington on a short leash? The Jets quarterback has thrown five interceptions in the past two weeks, prompting some discussion that backup Kellen Clemens should start warming up. The Jets need a turnaround. Quick. |
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29 (28) |
Falcons |
1-4-0 |
Warrick Dunn is expected to reach the 10,000-yard career rushing mark this season. But at this rate, it won’t be anytime soon. He gained just 27 yards in the loss to Tennessee, giving him 9,710 for his career. |
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30 (29) |
Saints |
0-4-0 |
Odds are against the Saints’ returning to the playoffs this season. Since the NFL increased the playoff teams to 12 in 1990, just one team — the ’92 Chargers — has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. |
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31 (32) |
Rams |
0-5-0 |
If St. Louis loses at Baltimore on Sunday, this squad will tie the ’62 Rams for the worst start (0-6) in franchise history. And 0-7 is a distinct possibility, given that the Rams must travel to Seattle in Week 7. |
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32 (31) |
Dolphins |
0-5-0 |
How soon will the John Beck era begin Miami? Trent Green is out, and his career might be over. Cleo Lemon is now the starter, but it’s Beck, the second-round draft pick from BYU, who’s pegged as Miami’s future QB. The future might be now. |
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| Sunday, September 9, 2007 |
Phil Jackson is about to be enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame. J.A. Adande takes a look at his unique style of coaching.
Phil Jackson enters the Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend, and to understand how he coached his way there, it might help to familiarize yourself with the concept of “antimatter” — that is, to realize that the opposite of something is still something, not nothing. That way, it makes sense that some of his best coaching moves come from not coaching, that the best way for players to appreciate him is to not play for him.
For a man with such an immense ego, the irony is Jackson has derived so much success by taking himself out of the equation. He realizes coaching isn’t about getting the players to do what you want, it’s about getting them to want to do what’s right. He always put the game above himself, placed his trust in the players more than his ways.
Opposing coaches might wonder why he doesn’t make an adjustment while they run the same play successfully against him time after time. Fans get agitated when the other team runs off 10 consecutive points and Jackson steadfastly refuses to call a timeout, sitting as motionless as if he were modeling for a Buddha sculpture. Jackson always believed that during times of duress, if the players discovered their own solutions they would benefit in the long run. He was right.
What is the essence of coaching? Getting the most out of your players and putting them in position to win. You won’t find a coach or manager who did that on a more consistent basis than Phil Jackson.
Jackson’s big number is the record nine NBA championships he shares with Red Auerbach, but here’s the telltale stat: Only once has Jackson lost a playoff series in which his team had home-court advantage. That means that nearly every time they were supposed to win, they did. A grand record of 35-1 when starting at home. His squads almost always maxed out, even these past two Lakers first-round departures, who traveled just as far as they were built to go.
Sure he’s had great players, most notably Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in Chicago and Shaq and Kobe in L.A. But Auerbach coached 10 future Hall of Famers in Boston, so he wasn’t exactly doing it with scrubs. And if the best talent always guaranteed the best results, Marty Schottenheimer would still be coaching the San Diego Chargers. Why didn’t the 1991 Portland Trail Blazers or the 2002 Sacramento Kings win championships? Oh, that’s right, Rick Adelman was coaching them.
Another sign of Jackson’s success: the way his critics keep turning into allies.
[...]
When players see the alternative usually involves more stress and less winning, they realize they’re better off with Jackson. That’s why these days you’ll hear Bryant praise Jackson for “his understanding of the game, his understanding of unit cohesiveness, his patience. I think all of those things, the little intricacies of the game that he’s really picked up, that a lot of coaches and players don’t really understand, he’s mastered. It’s separated him from the pack, in my opinion.”
Jackson can do X’s and O’s. But he isn’t the best at it. And it’s not what he does best. Sometimes less is more.
[...]
The goal of Buddhism is nirvana, a state of being that’s devoid of wants and fears, the extinction of the individual consciousness. There’s that notion of nothing again. For Jackson, it might be more of a means than an end. He might not have reached nirvana, but he has made it to Springfield, Mass. He’s the “Seinfeld” of the sidelines, turning the concept of nothing into success.
It’s been an amazing thing to watch. He’s simply unparalleled in modern professional sports, with its free agency, massive league expansion, and culture of individuality. Nobody has come close to getting this much of out teams since the era when great coaches could stockpile talent and keep the same stars together for a decade or more.
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| Wednesday, July 25, 2007 |
Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders ranked the 32 NFL linebacking corps. Here are his top 10.
1. Baltimore Ravens (12)
How talented is this group? So talented that they can lose Adalius Thomas to the Patriots and still finish first in our rankings. Ray Lewis and Bart Scott man the inside. While Lewis’ best days are behind him, he’s still the leader of this unit and the man who keeps everyone in line. You’ll see the occasional superlative moment (and reasonable consistency), but he’s no longer the player who defined his position in the early part of this decade. Scott took his first opportunity as a full-time starter and enjoyed a breakout season. He finished sixth in the NFL in Stop Rate and was the Head Quarterback Terrorizer among Baltimore’s linebackers with 9.5 sacks, 11 hits and 15 hurries.
Left outside linebacker Terrell Suggs’ fourth season was very much like his first three: outstanding from a pass rush perspective (he’s never finished a season with less than eight sacks and has averaged 10 per year), with an additional focus on run-stopping. Suggs finished third in the NFL in yards allowed per rushing play at 2.2, although that’s partly because he plays some defensive end in the Ravens’ flexible alignment. Replacing Thomas’ versatility and athleticism will be no easy task, and it’s possible that defensive coordinator Rex Ryan will try to do it by committee. Jarret Johnson is listed as the preseason replacement, but Dan Cody and Antwan Barnes will try to shake up the second tier in training camp.
2. San Diego Chargers (3)
If we were compiling a separate list for outside linebackers, the Chargers would take the top spot in an absolute rout. Shawne Merriman led the league in sacks despite missing four games last season after testing positive for steroids. Merriman claimed the test results came from a tainted supplement, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell disclosed in April of this year that Merriman has tested clean in 19 of the 20 drug tests he’s taken. It may be difficult for some to get over the stigma, because at his best, Merriman does things that simply defy belief. When Walter Jones pushes you to the ground on a pass play, and you somehow get up, get past the NFL’s best left tackle and still pick up the sack … well, people are going to wonder.
Lost in the shadow of Merriman’s “Lights Out” persona was the job turned in by Shaun Phillips on the weak side. Phillips had 11.5 sacks of his own and didn’t miss a beat when Merriman was out of the lineup, with three sacks and 20 tackles in three November games. The questions about San Diego’s linebackers are on the inside. The Chargers lost both of their inside starters: veteran Randall Godfrey was released after the draft, and free agent Donnie Edwards returned to the Chiefs after five seasons in San Diego. Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm are in line to replace Godfrey and Edwards, respectively, and that’s a lot of continuity to ask for when the “new kids” have totaled eight starts in eight seasons between them. Third-round pick Anthony Waters from Clemson could find an early place on the inside if he’s recovered from the torn ACL he suffered in his senior season.
3. Chicago Bears (2)
The defending NFC champs have had more than their share of off-season drama, and most of it surrounded the defense that got the Bears back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 21 years. The roster churn in the front four has been the big public story, thanks to Tank Johnson. But the real Sword of Damocles for the best defense of 2006 has been the battle between the team and Lance Briggs. The Bears franchised Briggs, and the elite weak-side linebacker has responded by threatening to sit out the first 10 games of the season. The Bears almost had a pre-draft trade done with the Redskins in which Briggs would be dealt for Washington’s first-round pick, but that fell through. We’re projecting him playing a full season, what with the potential payday and all. Briggs is a force no matter what is coming at him; he finished fifth in Stop Rate against the run and in the top five in Defeats against the run and the pass.
As good as Briggs is (and as improbable as his return to Chicago would be after this season), the defense belongs to Brian Urlacher. Urlacher continues the Chicago tradition of great middle linebackers, and may be the most versatile of the Bill George/Dick Butkus/Mike Singletary line. His closest antecedent of that group is George, the Hall-of Famer who played for the Bears from 1952 to 1965 and is credited by some as the first middle linebacker, a position he may have created when he dropped back from his middle guard spot in the five-man lines of the time and began defending the aerial game. George picked off eighteen passes in his career. Urlacher has long been regarded as one of the best in the modern game against the pass, and he matched his career highs in 2006 with three interceptions and six passes defensed. Though he didn’t record a sack last season, he was credited with 10 quarterback hits, the most of any inside linebacker. Hunter Hillenmeyer fills out the best 4-3 group in the NFL, though Briggs’ situation and uncertainty about the front four could see Chicago’s linebackers give way to …
4. Seattle Seahawks (4)
This was a formidable group on paper after the acquisition of Julian Peterson, but schematic issues and one key injury conspired to provide less than optimal results. Peterson put up a career year in the sack department with 10, but his versatility was the real worth behind the seven-year, $54 million contract Seattle gave him before the 2006 season. Lining him up as a rush end, as the Seahawks did frequently to start the season, overemphasized one aspect of his talent. As the season progressed and the fit began to happen, Peterson’s ability to drop into coverage became a factor. This also helped Leroy Hill, who was negatively affected by Peterson’s initial focus on quarterback pressure. In his 2005 rookie season, Hill posted 7.5 sacks and had the highest Stop Rate against the run of any Seahawks linebacker. Hill does these things well, but he doesn’t have a reverse gear, and this was made very evident from his rookie season when he found himself routinely embarrassed in coverage. Seattle’s defensive coaching staff promises to allow Hill to be less reactive and more aggressive in his third year.
The injury that affected Seattle’s linebackers actually happened to the front four, when defensive tackle Marcus Tubbs missed 11 games with a knee injury. Nobody was more impacted by this than middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu, an undersized Tasmanian devil who makes the defense go when he can shoot gaps and make plays. With Tubbs gone, Tatupu proved unable to consistently shed blocks at the line. Still, he continued to develop his ability to read opposing offenses as if they were cereal boxes, and he’s surprisingly adept when retreating into deep coverage. He’s also a textbook tackler, but he’ll need Tubbs (or third-round pick Brandon Mebane of Cal) to man the nose and soak up blockers.
5. Dallas Cowboys (5)
The transition at head coach for the Cowboys from Bill Parcells to Wade Phillips means that more aggressive defensive schemes will be in play. Phillips, who served as San Diego’s defensive coordinator during Shawne Merriman’s development, could have another monster on his hands in DeMarcus Ware. In his second NFL season, Ware not only increased his sack total from eight to 11.5, he also blew away all other linebackers with 25 quarterback hurries (New England’s Rosevelt Colvin was second with 20). Joining Ware this season will be first-round pick Anthony Spencer of Purdue, who will bring his disruptive abilities and self-proclaimed “Fro-hawk” to a linebacker unit already stuffed with pass rushers. Spencer is an ideal outside man in a 3-4; he’s aggressive and on point, racking up 10½ sacks and 26½ tackles for loss in his senior year alone. Optimally, Spencer could play Shaun Phillips to Ware’s Merriman, though those comparisons are a reach at this point.
Ten-year veteran Greg Ellis manned the strong side last year, but concerns about his recovery from a torn Achilles, and past struggles with his role, could have Spencer in the mix sooner than later. On the inside, fellow Purdue alum Akin Ayodele has a knack for being in the right place at the right time, ranking eighth in Stop Rate against the run and 19th in Success Rate against the pass. With Bradie James, Bobby Carpenter and Kevin Burnett available for different personnel packages, the Cowboys match their enviable frontline talent with impressive depth. Whatever the doubts about his ability to maintain overall discipline with a mercurial roster, Phillips’ influence could put this bunch of linebackers over the top.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (1)
We ranked Pittsburgh’s linebackers number one last year for good reason — it could be argued that the Steelers went through the NFL’s four best offensive lines in the postseason on the way to their fifth Super Bowl title. The changes came quickly after the team’s disappointing follow-up year, starting with the hire of new head coach Mike Tomlin. Though Tomlin has a graduate degree in Tampa-2, he’ll defer to Dick LeBeau’s 3-4 professorship.
Joey Porter took $20 million in guaranteed money from the Miami Dolphins; now the Steelers will find out whether Porter was the defense’s soul, or just its mouth. Replacing him at right outside linebacker is James Harrison. Harrison has spent most of his time as a backup, though he did enjoy cups of coffee as a starter in 2004 and 2005. He may be good enough against the run and rushing the passer that there won’t be a decline, though Porter was one of the better linebackers against the pass last season. Looking to the future, the Steelers can turn rookies Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley loose on enemy quarterbacks. Timmons, Pittsburgh’s first-round draft pick, seems a natural for his new team — he won Florida State’s “Hines-man Award” for best overall performance.
Opposite Harrison will be Clark Haggans, a savvy and reliable veteran. James Farrior and Larry Foote have been the primary inside men for the last three seasons. Farrior’s 27 Defeats led the team, and Foote ranked 11th in the league with a 75 percent Stop Rate against the run. The concern here is that overall depth could be an issue with two rookies to rely on.
7. Oakland Raiders (26)
Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan put together one of the most remarkable coaching jobs in recent memory; the Raiders defense ranked ninth in our DVOA stats even though the offense was pathetic. This defense faced the fewest pass attempts (410) and most rushing attempts (542) in the league. That may make an offensive strategy easier to discern, but the mental wear of playing at that level with nonexistent hope on the other side of the ball must be astonishing.
Middle linebacker Kirk Morrison is the star of this unit, an oft-ignored product of the same 2005 draft that produced Merriman and Tatupu. He ranked sixth with a 67 percent Success Rate against the pass, the highest among inside linebackers. His 33 Defeats tied him for third with Brian Urlacher and Cato June. Rookie Thomas Howard impressed on the weak side, though his run-stopping skills need to improve. Sam Williams and Robert Thomas alternated on the strong side, with Thomas proving to be the better player. Morrison and Howard have a world of talent, excellent coaching and an extremely solid group around them. If they had an offense that wasn’t reminiscent of the 1927 Dayton Triangles (link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/day1927.htm), there might be some relief in store.
8. Miami Dolphins (9)
Zach Thomas led the NFL with 174 plays, and had a Stop Rate of 61 percent, one of the best percentages for any inside linebacker whose responsibilities comprised more than just staying at home in a 3-4. Add in nine passes defensed and three sacks and you have an amazing season from a 33-year old who didn’t fade out no matter how often he was targeted.
To complement Thomas’ abilities, the Dolphins threw a great deal of money at Joey Porter. Porter will try to put a somewhat disappointing 2006 behind him, but his seven sacks are still more than the 5.5 that Miami’s entire linebacker corps managed last year. The Dolphins will need continued improvement from strong-side linebacker Channing Crowder. He ranked fifth in Stop Rate against the run, but his Success Rate in pass coverage was just 32 percent, one of the worst of any linebacker.
9. Cleveland Browns (21)
The Browns haven’t posted a winning season since 2002 and suffer from several positional shortfalls, but their linebackers aren’t part of the problem. Cleveland drafted Kamerion Wimbley to get after the quarterback on the weak side, and he did so with abandon, racking up 11 sacks, 16 hits and 19 hurries. On the other side, 14-year veteran Willie McGinest might split time with Antwan Peek this season. Houston’s switch back to a 4-3 left Peek as a man without a position, but he could surprise in Cleveland. On the inside, D’Qwell Jackson and Andra Davis are players who work well in this system and would have much better numbers with better linemen in front of them. Chaun Thompson provides good depth.
10. New England Patriots (13)
The dominant linebacker sets of the recent Super Bowl years are a memory; at this point, Bill Belichick is balancing the value of experience against the effectiveness of pure athleticism. As usual, the Pats come up trumps when presented with such a conundrum. This time, they split the difference between veteran know-how and pure talent by signing free agent Adalius Thomas, formerly of the Ravens. Thomas will be a perfect fit in his new system, because Belichick may have a greater appreciation than any other coach for players who can do many things well. Thomas isn’t just another mid-level “Swiss Army Knife” guy, either. He managed to stand out in Baltimore’s ridiculous 2006 group, and fared better than any teammate when considering all aspects of linebacker play. Thomas’ prominence will increase in New England, because the talent around him is starting to fade a bit.
The names you know — Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau (post-temporary retirement version) — are still here, but there will have to be a serious re-set sooner than later. The Patriots finished eighth in Defensive DVOA last season, but remember what we’ve said about dominant front lines skewing linebacker performance. New England’s improved ranking here is almost all about the new guy. Bruschi and Vrabel are still strong against the run, but suffer in pass coverage. Rosevelt Colvin, the other outside linebacker, is an excellent pass-rusher, with nine sacks, 19 hits and 20 hurries.
Due to a lack of depth, The Patriots can’t be ranked higher. Larry Izzo is mostly a special-teamer, and Eric Alexander’s first start in his three-year NFL career (a good portion of which has been spent on the practice squad) was in the 2006 AFC Championship Game. Dallas Clark has your learning curve right here, Eric.
These comparisons are a little strained given the different ways NFL teams use linebackers. Certainly, it’s easier for linebackers to dominate in a 3-4 than a 4-3, where the main rush comes from defensive ends. Still, if the Cowboys can live up to this #5 ranking, they should be much improved over last year.
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| Wednesday, July 25, 2007 |
Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders ranks the NFL receiving units from 1-32 including, rightly I think, tight ends. Here’s the top 10:
1. Dallas (1)
After six weeks of Drew Bledsoe, the Cowboys’ receivers were struggling. While Terry Glenn had a very respectable 16.8 percent DVOA, Terrell Owens was at a woeful -7.7 percent, and Patrick Crayton (the likely third or fourth target on most plays) had only been thrown 12 passes in six weeks because Bledsoe couldn’t stay upright long enough to find him. Even Jason Witten’s 17.0 percent DVOA had him at a mediocre 13th amongst tight ends.
By the end of the year, Glenn’s DVOA had improved to 20.4 percent, while Owens got all the way up to 12.2 percent. Crayton got 36 more attempts in the final 10 games and was the best third receiver in football. Witten’s DVOA went up to 19.1 percent, seventh amongst all tight ends. The point: Having an even competent quarterback can be the difference between a group of receivers struggling, or being amongst the league’s elite. While Owens and Glenn are getting up there in age, both have yet to show an appreciable level of decline in their metrics, and Owens will likely see an improved catch rate after healing his finger injury. Crayton remains one of the unsung threats in the league, and Witten, the best tight end in a division full of them. A team’s top four receivers will see 65-70 percent of all the throws made by a quarterback over the course of a season; one through four, no one’s better than the Cowboys.
2. Indianapolis (3)
On one hand, it would be incredibly interesting to see what would happen if Marvin Harrison ended up playing with Charlie Frye, or someone of that ilk. How much of his performance would he lose? On the other hand, breaking up Manning and Harrison just seems wrong, like sticking Tennille with Tom Jones, Chuck D with Prince Markie D.
What makes Indianapolis so dangerous, though, is their depth. In Harrison and Reggie Wayne (No. 1 and No. 2 in wide receiver DPAR last season), they have a one-two punch to match any in football; when you add Dallas Clark to the equation, you may have the three best pure receivers in the game. What makes this team even scarier in 2007 is the addition of Anthony Gonzalez in the first round; while it’s impossible to forecast certain success for the young man, take a gander at the other skill-position players the Colts have used first-round picks on under Bill Polian: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne. These guys could make Jim Sorgi look good. While Gonzalez will undoubtedly struggle some with the complex Colts playbook, his 3.6 GPA while at Ohio State offers some encouragement that he might be a quick study.
3. Cincinnati (4)
As good as Indianapolis’ starting wide receivers were, Cincinnati’s star combo of Chad Johnson (5th in DPAR) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (4th) were right behind them. In fact, it’s easy to construct a pretty convincing argument that by the time Carson Palmer had come all the way back from his knee injury, the combination were approaching the performance of Wayne and Harrison. Before the Bengals bye in Week 5, the Colts’ duo were averaging 5.5 DPAR per game combined, while the Bengals’ top two had a measly 2.3 DPAR per game between them. Over the rest of the year, while the Colts’ stars kept their numbers up at 5.69 DPAR per game, the Bengals got up to 4.46 DPAR per game; still not at the Colts’ level, but approaching it.
What separates the Colts’ offense from the Bengals, though, is depth. The Bengals offense does not enjoy a threat at tight end the level of Dallas Clark, although Reggie Kelly has proven to be an effective receiver (17.8 percent DVOA in 2006) when used. While Chris Henry was an excellent third wide receiver, a full season of Anthony Gonzalez will be better than the maximum eight games Henry will be allowed to suit up for in 2007. While they’re not the Colts’ set of receivers — very few teams in NFL history have been — Johnson and Houshmandzadeh are an elite duo, and they are likely to continue to be for at least two more seasons.
4. Baltimore (18)
A great group of receivers hidden by a quarterback losing his arm strength and pocket dexterity. While neither Derrick Mason nor Mark Clayton had spectacular statistics last season, the offensive scheme they played in, and Steve McNair’s quickness to check down caused some deflation in their numbers as opposed to their actual talent level. Mason remains one of the more reliable No. 1 receivers in football, a steady target who runs excellent routes and frees up space underneath while being double-covered. Clayton, on the other hand, is a star waiting to happen, a deep threat in the vein of Chicago’s Bernard Berrian with an upside not dissimilar to Carolina’s Steve Smith. He gained confidence as the year went along, and by the time the playoffs rolled around, was receiver No. 1A. He may have as good a chance to enjoy a breakout 2007 as anyone in pro football.
While third wideout Demetrius Williams is a step down from those two, he was a serviceable deep threat in his first season of playing time on offense, and is likely to see more action out of the slot as the Ravens open up their offense some in 2007. The real third option, though, is tight end Todd Heap, who’s ready to assume the mantle of best non-Gates tight end in football from Tony Gonzalez as he enters his peak and Gonzalez leaves his. Heap remains an excellent end zone option and requires safeties to help out on him, creating space for Clayton behind them.
The Football Outsiders say Anquan Boldin hasn’t been as great as his numbers would suggest in Arizona. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)
5. Arizona (6)
Oh, if they only had a tight end. Last year, we panned former first-round pick and Cardinals’ third receiver Bryant Johnson as a bust, and the player holding the Cardinals’ wideouts back; Johnson responded with an excellent campaign, ranking 13th in DVOA and 27th in DPAR despite not being a starter. This year, we turn our scornful gaze, surprisingly, toward Anquan Boldin; while he’s been a workhorse at wide receiver (his 18.8 points of DPAR were 21st in the league last year), he’s yet to post a DVOA above 5 percent in his career, which points somewhat to the source of his success being a significant level of usage as opposed to spectacular performance. Expect that to improve some as the Cardinals’ offensive line does. The scary thing is that this threesome is already among the top two or three in football on their own merits, and they’re just now getting a good quarterback and slowly developing an offensive line. Oh, and they haven’t even hit their peak yet.
6. Denver (14)
It’s not often that a team’s Hall of Fame receiver suffers a steep decline and yet the receiving corps gets better, but that’s exactly what’s happened in Denver. Despite the controversy at quarterback, Javon Walker emerged as roughly the same receiver he was in Green Bay before his 2005 ACL tear; he was eighth in DPAR and 22nd in DVOA in 2004, 16th and 30th, respectively, in 2006. The effects of having to adjust to Jay Cutler’s development and Jake Plummer’s regression peg those as sufficiently similar performances. Of course, to speak of regression would require discussing Rod Smith, who absolutely fell off the cliff in 2006, 78th in DPAR and 77th in DVOA; toast got offended when you mistook it for the far-more-burnt Smith. With Smith still struggling to return from hip surgery, Denver will likely give more playing time to free agent Brandon Stokley and promising second-year player Brandon Marshall, who came on at season’s end and looks to be a real player.
The other advantage to Denver’s attack are their tight ends, who may be the deepest group in the game. Former Patriots first-round pick Daniel Graham is primarily known as a mauler, but he’s also a reliable pair of hands and good underneath option; meanwhile, backup Tony Scheffler posted an 8.7 percent DVOA last year, good enough for 14th in the league. He runs deeper routes than Graham, and the two will serve as solid complements to each other. Last year’s starter, Stephen Alexander, will likely remain as a blocker and decoy receiver. All in all, Cutler will be spoiled for choice in his first full season at the helm.
7. New England (10)
Speaking of spoiled for choice, New England had a hole at receiver, and instead of sticking a finger in to plug it, they just threw in the whole hand. Five new receivers come to the Patriots to supplement Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson, but each of them has flaws. Donte’ Stallworth has had one healthy year in five; health is a skill, and it’s the one thing Stallworth lacks that keeps him from being an elite wideout. Randy Moss hasn’t been Randy Moss in three seasons, and for a player who’s 30 and has always relied on his physical skills, it’s unlikely that he’ll return to being Randy Moss as a Patriot.
Randy Moss struggled in Oakland. Will he be able to return to glory in New England? ( Jonathan Ferrey / Getty Images)
Wes Welker is an excellent third receiver and return man, but has very little upside and has likely already peaked. Kelley Washington was squeezed out in Cincinnati because of a loaded wideout group, but he’s also injury-prone and his aptitude for playing special teams (which is what he’ll need to do to grab a roster spot) has been questioned. Finally, Kyle Brady is likely to fulfill most of the blocking requirements Daniel Graham served in previous years, but he’s no threat in the air and the Patriots will need David Thomas to serve as the second tight end in the receiving game. While the Patriots have certainly improved their group of receivers, the improvements might not be as dramatic as first glance would have it.
8. San Diego (5)
This discussion begins with Antonio Gates because the passing attack is all based around him. At this point, Gates is one of the five best free talent acquisitions in NFL history; at 27, and with a body a little bit healthier than most tight ends because of his lack of a college football career, we can even expect that Gates might turn it up another notch as Philip Rivers matures.
Outside of Gates, the Chargers have a group of talented wide receivers with something to prove. Eric Parker is a first-down machine, and one of the most underrated players in football; his DVOA rankings over the last three years are 26th, 3rd, and 7th. While the departed Keenan McCardell had clearly lost a step across from Parker, he was booted from the starting lineup by injury and the emergence of 6-foot-5 Vincent Jackson as a viable starter. Jackson still has a ways to go before he’s of McCardell’s caliber, but he creates dramatic matchup problems for every defensive coordinator the Chargers face: how do you defend against two guys who are 6-foot-4-plus and run like the wind? If Norv Turner actually does finally live up to his offensive guru reputation, it could be a scary time for safeties league-wide. When you throw in first-round selection, and former LSU speed demon Craig Davis, this is another batch of receivers who are already good and will only get better. San Diego suffers from this analysis not including the receiving benefits of LaDainian Tomlinson, but either way, this is a promising group.
9. Seattle (2)
If this list was purely looking at wide receivers, Seattle would be in the top-five. That’s what happens when you have Football Outsiders favorite and emerging star D.J. Hackett pushing his way into a lineup that already features fellow Outsiders poster boy Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson and a now-settled Deion Branch. Hackett’s DVOA answered only to Devery Henderson’s last year, as he caught 67 percent of the passes thrown to him, and averaged nearly 14 yards per completion.
The problem, though, is that the Seahawks have neglected to acquire any tight ends to suit up for them this year; while Marcus Pollard, Will Heller and Bennie Joppru may answer to that title, none of them are players anyone would want to rely on as a championship-caliber tight end. While Engram and Hackett may do the underneath work that tight ends normally do in the West Coast offense, expect Seattle’s blocking effectiveness to decrease.
10. Detroit (27)
Well, they have to be above-average at something. The Lions’ bugaboo became the position they could hang their hat on last year, as Roy Williams’ development within Mike Martz’s pass-happy attack pushed him into the upper-echelon of NFL wide receivers; his 29 DPAR were good for sixth in the league, although at a 14.1 percent DVOA, he was only 21st. Mike Furrey’s conversion to wideout became one of the better stories of that nature in recent memory, as he caught 98 passes and put up a solid DPAR and DVOA. In addition, the selection of Calvin Johnson gives the Lions what appears to be — caution now — a sure thing across from Williams. In addition, tight end Dan Campbell posted a whopping 44.2 percent DVOA on 32 attempts last year, the best for any tight end in football.
The problem is that some of these successes are obviously schematic; Campbell’s never been that level of receiver and isn’t likely to be again, while Furrey’s skills are also overstated by his usage pattern. Even if Johnson’s the real deal, Detroit’s still a step behind the elite receiving corps in football.
Click the link for teams 11-32 and an explanation for all the acronyms.
It’s interesting that they rank the Cowboys #1, given the lack of depth behind their two geriatric starters at wideout. Patrick Crayton is generally underrated, I think, but I never would have guessed he was the best #3 in the game. And the tight end production should increase substantially this year under the new offense.
Of course, there are several other teams in contention for this title and most have more established quarterbacks. If Tony Romo doesn’t return to mid-2006 form, his receivers won’t be the best in the League.
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| Wednesday, July 25, 2007 |
Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders ranks all 32 teams at quarterback using some highly scientific formula. Actually, though, he’s mostly ranking the top 32 presumptive starting quarterbacks, since the backups barely factor into the equation.
His top 10, then:
1. Colts (2006 Rank: 1)
If you lumped together all of Peyton Manning‘s third down pass attempts from the last three seasons, you would get this stat line: 243-of-384 (63.3%), 2889 yards, 38 touchdowns, eight interceptions. The dude is pretty good on third downs.
Take four years of Peyton’s fourth quarter performances and add them together to get this stat line: 304-of-454 (66.9 percent), 3,589 yards, 22 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. He’s pretty good late in the game, too. If you are only interested in “late clutch” situations (fourth quarter, game within seven points), Peyton is 229-of-335 (68.3 percent) for 2,768 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s not too shabby with the game on the line.
In short, Manning is the guy you want to give the ball to in pressure situations. The “playoff choke artist” isn’t dead; he never existed. The Peyton Manning we saw in January and February — the guy who battled back from a 21-3 lead in the AFC title game against the Team of the Decade, who threw for 247 yards against the league’s best defense in the rain-drenched Super Bowl — is an all-time great, a legend in his prime.
Jim Sorgi has been in the system for four years and has looked good in mop-up duty. John Navarre provides much needed preseason comic relief as the third stringer.
(Note: Manning naysayers should email their complaints to me at mtanier@footballoutsiders.com, not Aaron Schatz or Rupert Murdoch.)
2. Patriots (2006 Rank: 2)
Fourteen wins. Twenty-four touchdowns. Over 3,500 yards. Another 724 yards and five touchdowns in the postseason. Welcome to an off year, Tom Brady style. When Brady comes within four points of reaching the Super Bowl, he’s a disappointment. With three rings on his fingers and a new crop of receivers to throw to this season, he’s sure to find a way to bounce back in 2007.
Brady is best in the league at spraying the ball to his backs and tight ends in space, and he has the best pocket awareness since Troy Aikman. Only Peyton is better at dissecting and dismantling coverage schemes. Some micro-analysts think he can’t throw the deep ball. Just wait until Brady sees Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth streaking down the sidelines. He’ll show you a deep ball.
Backup Matt Cassel has been with the Patriots so long that he once fumbled in Nickerson Stadium. In a preseason game, of course. Cassel is a swashbuckling scrambler with a case of fumble-itis, but he knows the system. Rookie Matt Gutierrez posted marginal numbers at I-AA Idaho State but has NFL size and arm strength.
3. Eagles (2006 Rank: 8)
Donovan McNabb surprised many by participating in a May mini-camp; it was an encouraging sign that he is ahead of schedule in his ACL rehab. McNabb underwent a grueling off-season program of knee exercises that included, among other things, long games of tag. Yes, as in “you’re it.” Don’t laugh; children’s games can help athletes improve the strength and flexibility in their legs. In fact, legend has it that Dan Marino overcame his collegiate knee injuries by riding the Double Dutch Bus.
When healthy, McNabb is an elite quarterback. He’s great at launching deep passes, but he’s even better when the Eagles offense is balanced and he has the chance to throw underneath. McNabb underthrows some passes and is starting to lose his scrambling ability, but he’s a great decision maker in the pocket and one of the hardest quarterbacks in NFL history for players not named Ronde Barber to intercept.
McNabb has missed 13 starts in the last two seasons and is coming off a major injury. Luckily, the Eagles have the best quarterback depth in the NFL. A.J. Feeley is an Andy Reid disciple who knows the system and takes what the defense offers. Rookie Kevin Kolb is a shotgun quarterback with great touch and mobility; the Lewin Career Forecast ranks him as an excellent long-term prospect. Kelly Holcomb, acquired in the Takeo Spikes trade, may be the odd man out, but he’s a heady veteran who can win a game or two if called upon.
4. Bengals (2006 Rank: 6)
As Carson Palmer continues to recover from that devastating ACL injury, the Bengals could move up this list. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
Carson Palmer slipped a bit after his tremendous 2005 season. The lingering effects of his ACL tear troubled him early in the season, and injuries on the offensive line resulted in 36 sacks. Still, 4,000 yards and a 28/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio are nothing to apologize for. Palmer may have the quickest release in football and excels at throwing deep outs and comebacks. He also knows how to check down and can buy time in the pocket. The Bengals would rank third, but mediocre backup Doug Johnson and rookie Jeff Rowe wouldn’t win many games in Palmer’s absence.
5. Seahawks (2006 Rank: 3)
You may have seen Matt Hasselbeck sporting a blonde wig during mini-camp. Do not be alarmed. Hasselbeck and Mike Holmgren just had some communication issues. Holmgren said that the quarterback had to be more like Montana. Holmgren meant “Joe.” Hasselbeck thought he meant “Hannah.”
After suffering through his worst season in five years, Hasselbeck probably felt the need to wear a disguise and lay low. Hasselbeck missed four games with a knee injury, then started forcing balls into coverage when he returned. Dropped passes and instability on the offensive line didn’t help. Hasselbeck is healthy again (the minor off-season surgery on his non-throwing shoulder is not an issue), so look for him to return to form as soon as he loses the wig. He’s a consummate West Coast quarterback who breaks down coverages well and puts tremendous touch on the ball.
Backup Seneca Wallace is a 5-foot-10 scrambler with an average arm. Mike Holmgren changes the offense when Wallace is in the game, calling more shotgun formations and rolling pocket plays. Despite his physical limits, Wallace has a little bit of Flutie Magic and can surprise opponents.
6. Saints (2006 Rank: 10)
He’s short. His passes don’t exactly whistle in the air. He can run a little, but he’s no Michael Vick. He came from the type of spread college offense that has been churning out NFL busts for two decades. Drew Brees‘ measurables don’t add up to a Pro Bowl quarterback, but here he is. Brees has now enjoyed three straight outstanding seasons for two different teams, so it’s time to give him his due. Brees is a mechanically sound technician with great touch and accuracy who has good pocket awareness and gets rid of the ball quickly. Combine all of those “little” skills, and you get 4,400 yards, 26 touchdowns, and a deep playoff run.
Backup Jamie Martin has been in the NFL for 13 seasons, most of them as a third stringer. He’s auditioning for an offensive coordinator’s job. Second-year pro Jason Fife is a project.
7. Rams (2006 Rank: 17)
Another year, another 4,000 yards or so and 24 touchdowns. Bulger may be the most consistent quarterback in the league. He rarely has a truly bad game, and when he does (like last season’s 151-yard, zero touchdown, seven-sack effort against the Panthers), it’s pretty obvious that there were breakdowns elsewhere on offense. If Rex Grossman could take Marc Bulger pills, Bears fans wouldn’t need so much ibuprofen to get through the fall.
Backup Gus Frerotte is a streak shooter with a great arm and tons of experience. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fleet-footed Ivy Leaguer who throws well on the run. Neither could lead the Rams to the playoffs, but both could win a game in a pinch.
8. Steelers (2006 Rank: 4)
He led his team to a 15-1 season. He won a Super Bowl. Then he turned 24. He accomplished so much that it was easy to forget how young Ben Roethlisberger was. He crashed his motorcycle. He needed an appendectomy. He battled back, but he couldn’t overcome the distractions and the expectations. He was awful early in 2006, throwing no touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first three games. He got better, but he kept pressing. Roethlisberger was a terrible fourth quarter passer in 2006: four touchdowns, 11 interceptions, many of the picks coming at the worst possible times. He was trying too hard, playing outside the system. It was a miserable year.
Now, the good news: Big Ben is healthy and focused. The new coaching staff plans to maximize his strengths by introducing more spread formations and a no-huddle package. And he’s still only 25 years old. Think of last season as his “rookie lumps” year. He just had it out of order.
Backup Charlie Batch has a poor arm and has lost much of his athleticism, but he’s crafty and played well in relief over the last two seasons. Brian St. Pierre has been hanging around practice squads for four years. Brian Randall, a former standout at Virginia Tech, will try to make some noise in camp.
9. Ravens (2006 Rank: 12)
Steve McNair is Captain Checkdown, a dink-and-dunk specialist who never met a slant, hitch, or curl route that he didn’t like. McNair still has the arm to throw deep but rarely does; just 13 percent of his passes traveled 16 or more yards in the air, easily the lowest figure among starters. McNair is a marksman on short routes, and while he isn’t very fast, he knows when to tuck and run for positive yardage.
Backup Kyle Boller has plenty of experience, throws a great deep ball, and can run away from trouble. Boller played well when McNair was hurt last year but still overthrows too many receivers. Rookie Troy Smith has all the intangibles but must prove that he is more than a shotgun-option rollout quarterback.
10. Chargers (2006 Rank: 22)
Philip Rivers finished fifth in the league in DPAR (88.6), threw for 3,388 yards, and led his teams to a 14-2 record. Still, his performances against the Raiders in Week 12 (14-of-31, 133 yards, one interception) and Chiefs in Week 15 (8-of-23, 97 yards, two interceptions) suggest that Rivers is still suffering through some growing pains. New coach Norv Turner will focus on fundamentals to improve Rivers’ awkward backpedal and delivery style. But Turner’s system lacks creativity, and Rivers may struggle when opponents figure out the game plan. Backup Billy Volek went from heir apparent to dirty dishrag in Tennessee in just a few weeks last year. Volek has a live arm and has proven he can win games off the bench.
11. Cowboys (2006 Rank: 21)
Tony Romo is no half-year wonder. Romo spent three years on the Cowboys bench learning the ropes from Sean Payton before bursting into the spotlight last October. When he’s focused, his mechanics are solid, his release is quick, he makes good decisions, and he can make plays on the run. Focus, though, is the key. By December, Romo seemed to be reading his press clippings; he started scrambling around in search of highlight-film touchdowns and carrying the football like it was an overfilled diaper pail. With a season to settle into his role as a starter, Romo will calm down and return to the form he displayed during his nine-touchdown, one-interception November run.
Backup Brad Johnson aged quickly last year. He’s a fine sounding board and mentor for Romo, but the Cowboys are in trouble if he plays.
Okay, so that’s 11. But I wasn’t going to leave the ‘Boys off the list when they were so close! Moving up 11 spots over last year is quite impressive, especially considering that Romo fell apart down the stretch and single handedly (quite literally) lost the Cowboys’ playoff game against the Seahawks.
The other 21 teams are rated at the link.
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| Wednesday, July 11, 2007 |
Scouts, Inc. ranks the best running back team combos:
1. San Diego Chargers
It is hard to not be ranked No. 1 when you have the reigning league MVP and best running back in the NFL on your roster. LaDainian Tomlinson was unstoppable last season. He is the most versatile running back in the NFL because he can beat you as a runner and receiver. The 2006 coaching staff did an excellent job creating mismatches with him in the passing game. With his vision, run instincts and playmaking ability, we expect him to pick up right where he left off in 2007. The other thing that makes this unit special is depth. In addition to Tomlinson, they have Michael Turner, who is the best backup in the NFL. Turner provides an excellent change of pace to Tomlinson. When both are in the lineup at the same time, they give defenses fits.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
We put the Chiefs second not because of their depth, but because of the star power they have in No. 1 RB Larry Johnson. Johnson is the No. 1 workhorse back in the NFL and set a league record last season with 416 carries. Throw in 41 receptions, and Johnson averaged nearly 29 touches per game. With veteran quarterback Trent Green gone to Miami, Johnson will be counted on for similar production in 2007. The Chiefs must avoid overworking him and get better production out of their backups. Often injured and seldom-used backup Michael Bennett has excellent speed, but he can’t stay healthy. He could be a solid change-of-pace runner if he can shake the injury bug. Veteran Priest Holmes is still on the roster, but his neck injury remains a concern. Don’t look for him to play anywhere in 2007.
3. Washington Redskins
If San Diego has the best one-two punch in the NFL, Washington isn’t far behind. Starting RB Clinton Portis was limited to eight games last season because of a shoulder injury. That injury really opened the door for backup Ladell Betts. Betts finished the 2006 season with 1,154 yards on 245 carries. Betts, scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after the 2006 season, re-signed with Washington. His return should make for a very good training camp battle with Portis. Depth-wise, the Redskins are excellent. They also signed former Chiefs and Jets RB Derrick Blaylockand have a scatback in Rock Cartwright. Fullback Mike Sellers is a very good special teams player, blocker and pass catcher. With young QB Jason Campbell at the controls, the Redskins will rely on this deep backfield to carry the offense.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars feature runners who can attack the line of scrimmage and make plays consistently. They finished the 2006 season with the No. 3-ranked run offense in the NFL. The leader of this group once again will be veteran Fred Taylor. He led the team in rushing last season with 1,146 yards on 231 carries. Second-year RB Maurice Jones-Drew will dip even deeper into Taylor’s carries this season. As a rookie last year, Jones-Drew had 941 yards on 166 carries. Taylor is not the player he once was, but when healthy, he still can make defenders miss and shows very good explosiveness through the hole. Look for the two backs to be closer to a 50-50 split in carries this season, which will put a ton of pressure on defenses.
5. Minnesota Vikings
When Brad Childress went to Minnesota last season, you could see there would be a major emphasis on running. The Vikings’ offensive line underachieved a little last season, but with a year to gel, it should be one of the best units in the NFL in 2007. With barely tested Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, the Vikings once again will focus on the ground game behind starting RB Chester Taylor. Taylor joined Minnesota as an unrestricted free agent after the 2005 season and in his first season as a starter showed he could carry the load as the No. 1 runner. This season he will get some help in that area from rookie first-round pick Adrian Peterson, who dropped right into the Vikings’ lap on draft day. These two have a chance to be one of the top duos in the NFL in 2007. Taylor is exceptional out of the backfield catching the ball and Peterson is an excellent inside runner who can get the tough yards. Throw in Mewelde Moore, Ciatrick Fason and Artose Pinner, who played well late in the season, and the Vikings have the deepest running back unit in the NFL.
6. New Orleans Saints
You could say the rich got richer this offseason when you talk about the Saints’ running backs. The team will once again have Deuce McAllister as its featured back. One year removed from a knee (ACL) injury, he rushed for 1,057 rushing yards in 2006. While that number is not great, it is very good for a player coming off a serious knee injury, and we expect that he will be healthier and more explosive in 2007. Even though McAllister will be the starter, former USC star Reggie Bush will continue to get more involved in the offense in his second season. Bush had 155 carries in 2006 but more importantly, he had 88 receptions. Look for Bush’s carries to go up some while still being heavily involved in the passing game. The team also got a steal in the draft, Antonio Pittman, in the fourth round. He might struggle to get touches early, but should have a bright future. The Saints won’t put up huge rushing numbers because they love to throw, but this unit is deep and talented.
7. Seattle Seahawks
While the depth is not great, the team still features 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander. Alexander rushed for only 896 yards last season, but he missed five games and played the first three games of the season with a broken bone in his foot. He never really got healthy, but still bounced back to have a solid second half of the season. If Alexander is healthy in 2007, look for him to be closer to the MVP of 2005. Backup Maurice Morris proved his worth when Alexander was out. Morris finished the season with 604 rushing yards and averaged 3.8 yards per carry last season. Overall, this is a team with a great back in Alexander and solid backup in Morris.
8. Denver Broncos
Despite finishing the 2006 season ranked in the top 10 (No. 8) in rushing, the Broncos shook up their backfield this offseason. They traded starter Tatum Bell to the Detroit Lions. Despite being productive at times, Bell had durability issues, is not a physical runner, and fumbles too often. The team got a solid upgrade when it added former Titans RB Travis Henry. Henry is more experienced, has better vision and is a tougher runner than Bell. Backing up Henry will be Mike Bell, who put together a solid rookie season in 2006 as an undrafted free agent. There is no legitimate star power here, but Henry and Bell will provide a solid 1-2 punch for an offense that loves to work its play-action passing game off the run game.
9. San Francisco 49ers
It is hard to place the 49ers when you talk about the running back unit as a whole. This is a team that doesn’t have great running back depth. But it has one of the best young runners in the game in Frank Gore. Behind Gore’s 1,695 yards, the 49ers featured the NFL’s No. 6 rushing offense in 2006. Gore, who has had a history of knee issues prior to coming to the NFL, should continue to get stronger. The depth is not very good here, and if Gore gets hurt, the 49ers would have serious issues. Former college quarterback and backup RB Michael Robinson has been used primarily in short-yardage situations, and Maurice Hicks averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. Gore is a stud in this offense, but the depth is marginal at best.
10. Dallas Cowboys
With a new head coach in Wade Phillips, a lot of jobs will be up for grabs. One of those jobs will be the running back position that has been manned by starter Julius Jones over the past few seasons. However, Jones has been pushed by backup Marion Barber III, who will get his opportunity in the preseason to win the starting job. The two bring a little something different to the table. Jones is a better outside runner, and Barber is a more physical runner between the tackles. Neither back is really a feature guy, but used properly, they form a very good 1-2 punch.
While I admit to bias, I think the Cowboys tandem of Jones and Barber are much better than 10th best in the league. They’re not LT and Turner, to be sure, but they’ve both quite good. And they should be much better in a non-stupid offense.
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| Wednesday, June 20, 2007 |
So, who is this year’s team?
Don’t like the 5-1 Indianapolis Colts , 6-5 New England Patriots , or 7-2 San Diego Chargers ? OK, here’s a radical suggestion: D. As in the Denver Broncos .
I think it’s quite obvious were my money is going. But, do you want to make some money? Listen up!
Going off at a mere 9-1 to win the AFC and a big 17- or 18- or even 20-1 to take Super Bowl XLII, some gamblers have got to be thinking about Mike Shanahan’s boys.
There is a lot of talk about New England’s off-season. But, take this into consideration.
As good as the Patriots’ offseason was, the Broncos can boast one amazing addition in cornerback Dre’ Bly, adding him to an already respectable ‘D’. This creates the most fearsome secondary in the league; today’s speculative depth chart puts the starters as Champ Bailey, Bly, John Lynch and Nick Ferguson.
Check out this and other examples of the overhauled Denver Broncos at realfootball365
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