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Sports Outside the Beltway

Yankees to make offer to Arod

And a very lucrative one at that.

 

Yankee managers: why should Girardi replace Torre?

Why?
1. He was a bench coach for Joe Torre for two years. There aren’t many better bosses to learn from, especially in terms of dealing with the media and with megastar players (egos).
2. He spent this season working in the YES broadcast booth. How else to learn how to deal with the media than to actually experience it?
3. Girardi won Manager of the Year for his one season with the 2006 Marlins. No, it ain’t the most objective award, but he did manage to bring a seemingly awful team to a near .500 record.
4. You want someone the players look up to? Girardi was a hard-nosed player; he caught Mo Rivera and Andy Pettitte early in their careers and mentored Jorge Posada at the very start of his career (perhaps helping him become one of the best in the game?), and won three titles with those guys. I’m sure he’d have a shitload of respect from everyone in the clubhouse.
5. This part is mostly subjective, but he’s young (43), smart, and has less loyalties than Torre. He can bring some new ideas, some freshness perhaps to a team that seemed to stagnate under the 67-year-old Torre. He seems very intelligent from listening to him on YES – almost everything he says oozes baseball intelligence; he’s also got a great sense of humor and gets along well with Al Leiter, Michael Kay and Paul O’Neill (and Kenny and Bobby). Charm, charisma, whatever it is, he’s got it and it could go a long way to helping a ballclub. Outside of possible loyalties to Mo, Pettitte, Posada and Jeter, no one else on the Yanks was a teammate of Girardi’s, so all those feelings and egos that Torre was afraid to hurt because he was there 12 years (and seen somewhat as a father figure) would have no bearing on Girardi’s managing. Objective managing is the way to go.

Why not?
1. If Girardi, off the Yanks coaching staff for two years gets the job, will Don Mattingly feel slighted? Yes, probably. Enough to leave the team? I don’t know.
2. One of the big cons with Girardi is the way he got along (or didn’t) with Florida’s ownership during his season there. There’s no owner more imposing or distracting than The Boss. And even if he’s indisposed of, the Steinbrenner boys and Randy Levine seem to have taken a lesson from the pages of King George on how to disrupt a ballclub. Will Girardi be able to handle it the (usually successful) way Torre did? Since he served as Torre’s bench coach, I believe he can.
3. The other big con with Girardi is how he (supposedly) treated his young pitching staff. Several Marlins pitchers reached career highs in 2006 in innings pitched, and this year they had terrible injury problems. Is Girardi at fault? Is he the right guy for a staff that will have three early 20′s phenoms? This is a subject I’m going to tackle in depth, so stay tuned…

 

Another reason to dislike ESPN

During Joe Torre’s press conference Friday, they kept flashing screens of where Joe ranked among Yankee managers. Two stats soured me – the first read:
‘Most Consecutive Postseason appearances:
Joe Torre 12
Casey Stengel 5
Joe McCarthy 4′

The second:
’76 postseason wins (all-time record)’

A casual sports fan seeing this would think Joe was the greatest manager in baseball history. But as usual, ESPN twisted stats to meet their viewpoint. Stengel and McCarthy managed when only one AL team made the playoffs every year instead of four (since 1995). And Joe managed the Yanks in the wildcard/three-round era when playoff teams play at least three games and as many as 19 – teams now have by far the most opportunities to win playoff games. It’s nothing major and most baseball fans know it, but ESPN should know better. As part of the media, they have a responsibility to represent the facts without trying to mislead.

So how many times did Joe manage the Yanks to the best record in the AL? To BRef for the answer…
2006
2004
2003
2002
1999
1998

So six out of 12 years is great, but they never had the best AL record more than thrice in a row as compared to Stengel’s five or McCarthy’s four. ESPN – the misleader in sports.

 

Torre’s tenure is over

12 seasons, 12 playoff appearances, 10 division titles, 6 pennants and 4 titles.

The Yankees offered Manager Joe Torre a one-year deal with a base salary of $5 million and the chance to make another $3 million in performance bonuses. But after 12 years and 12 postseason appearances (including four World Series titles), Torre turned it down.

“We respect his decision. We appreciate everything he’s done. But it is now time for the New York Yankees to move forward, and we will be doing it very quickly,” team President Randy Levine said.

General Manager Brian Cashman said that Torre’s successor has not been named, nor have potential candidates been formally identified. “I can promise you that the process is going to take some time,” Cashman said. “I ask for everyone’s patience as we review the individuals and make recommendations to ownership.”

Under the deal he was offered, Torre would have received a $1 million bonus for reaching the playoffs, another $1 million for reaching the American League Championship Series and $1 million if the team made the World Series. If he did lead the Yankees to the World Series in 2008, there would have been an $8 million option for the 2009 season.

This is a way for both sides to save face: the Yanks offer a very nice deal to a Hall of Fame manager instead of firing him, and Joe gets to decline the offer instead of coming back at a (possibly) reduced salary. This might have an impact on re-signing Posada, Arod, Mo and Pettitte, but I’m hoping Joe Girardi takes over the position. I know about the Marlins pitcher problems, but he did win Manager of the Year, has a rapport with many of the players, is young and intense, seemingly very knowledgeable (from his YES work), and knows what it’s like to play in New York.

 

If Arod departs…

What to do? With Scott Boras asking for an astronomical extension for Arod, perhaps he will opt-out to be a free agent. What will the Yanks do in that case? There are basically two options with a dream third option that’s unlikely to ever happen.

1. sign Mike Lowell
He’ll be a free agent this off-season, is coming off his best year yet and is a better defender than Arod. The caution flags arise when we realize that Lowell had his best year in his contract year (danger! danger!) and had huge home/road splits. His Fenway OPS was .226 higher than his road OPS. His career OPS at the Stadium is a sub-par .786 and he’ll turn 34 next year. I say stay far away.

2. play Wilson Betemit everyday at 3b
A far more efficient use of resources, considering Betemit’s salary isn’t even $400 K and he’s just 26 years old. His career OPS+ is just 98, but perhaps with regular playing time (something he’s rarely received) he could post numbers that more accurately reflect his immense talent. I could potentially see .270/.350/.450. His defense is about average for a third-baseman but his arm rivals Cano’s for the best in the infield.

3. trade for Miguel Cabrera
How much would it take to get the hefty 3b/OF slugging phenom from Florida? A lot. The 24 year old Cabrera (career 144 OPS+) would cost a lot of prospects, but Florida is open to the idea of dealing him, as they can probably only afford one of Dontrelle Willis and Cabrera. Apparently they want young, ML ready starting pitching, and since I’m totally unwilling to give up Hughes or Joba, what about Melky, Kennedy, Horne, Tabata/AJax and Betances for Miggy? It could turn out to be way too much or not nearly enough. A lot of it depends on Cabrera’s ability to get and stay in shape and how close Betances comes to reaching his mammoth potential. And the nice part is that Cabrera is actually a versatile (though poor) defender – he could play a below average 3b and OF, or be taught to play 1b and probably be just fine.

4. just sign Arod
The most risk-free option. I believe Arod wants to stay a Yankee and the Yanks obviously want him. If he bolts for the 4th team of his career, he’ll always (if not already) be seen simply as a mercenary/gun-for-hire type with no sense of loyalty or tradition and will go into the Hall of Fame never having a ‘true’ team or fanbase.

PS: Joba will enter Spring Training as a starter. Nice!

 

Wang sucks (again), ends Yanks season

That’s why baseball needs a first round ‘best of seven’ series. Cleveland was a little better during this four game stretch, but I still think the Yanks were the better overall team (best record in the second half anyone?).

The sad thing is that we would have given Boston much more of a run for their money. Cleveland is highly unlikely to continue their insane hitting with runners in scoring position while the Yanks would be unlikely to continue their woeful RISP hitting. After all, during the 162 game regular season the Yankees OPS with RISP was .829 compared to Cleveland’s .743. Boston must be ecstatic to face the Tribe (5-2 in 2007) instead of us who went 10-8 against them.

I won’t kill Torre for deciding to start Wang over Moose because I agreed with it for several reasons: 1) Wang pitches much better at home, 2) short rest can be a blessing for a sinkerballer who tries to keep the ball down, 3) he only threw 94 pitches in Game 1, 4) I just didn’t trust Mussina. He sucked though and was one of the main culprits behind the series loss: 5.2 ip, 19.06 era. When your ‘ace’ gets shelled like that it’ll be tough to win any series – throw in the poor hitting (Jeter hit .176, Posada .133, Matsui .182, Melky .188) and that’s the series.

The bad news:
1. Obviously, the season’s over and the guys deserved a better ending.
2. At least a month of speculation about Mo, Pettitte and Jorge… oh wait, and a guy named Alex.
3. Boston has a better chance to win the LCS.
4. If they do win the series, I’ll have to listen to a lot of shit from my New England relatives at Thanksgiving.

The good news:
1. A far less stressful October from this point on.
2. Guys like Joba, Phil and Shelley got valuable postseason experience (and showed they could succeed) which should help them next year.
3. The possibility of bringing in a new manager. I like Joe but as some of the postgame guys said, the players have to raise their intensity level in the playoffs and it seemed like they were simply duplicating their regular season approach.
4. Their resiliency – this team seemed dead in late May (I was 80% sure they’d miss the playoffs) only for them to turn around the season and nearly clinch the best record in baseball.
4. Four months until pitchers and catchers report.

 

Hughes saves Yankees season

Phil Hughes saved the game and season tonight (for at least another 24 hours). Roger Clemens failed to get through three (with a bad hammy) so on came Phil who shut down Cleveland’s offense for 3.2 innings. How ironic that the guy that nicknamed ‘Little Rocket’ picked up the ‘Big Rocket’ in possibly his last game ever? He became the youngest pitcher to ever win a playoff game for the Yankees.

Arod had his first hit(s) of the postseason, as did Posada and Matsui, but the big blow came off the bat of Johnny Damon who delivered a 3-run HR that gave the Yanks a 5-3 lead. Later on Robbie Cano ripped a bases loaded single to right that Trot Nixon misplayed into a bases-clearing triple. That pretty much sealed the win.

I didn’t get to see much of Friday night’s bug-fest (I was out of town) – but I know Melky was the entire Yankee offense and even threw out a runner at home; and as the Yanks were clinging to a 1-0 lead, bugs descended into Jacobs Field causing Joba to uncork two wild pitches that allowed Cleveland to tie the game. In the 11th, Vizcaino sucked and Hafner ripped a 2-out bases loaded single to win the game…

Anyway, now that this is a series (literally, every other LDS ended in a sweep), the Yanks get to face Paul Byrd tomorrow who was shelled in his last start against them. Wang will start on three days of rest (good for a sinkerballer) at home with Mussina waiting in the wings, so this game looks to be in New York’s favor. A win tomorrow means Pettitte in Game 5 in Cleveland…

 

Yanks lose – it sure looks like Torre was wrong

to start Wang in Game 1 and start Matsui over Duncan. Like I said, it should have been Pettitte in Game 1, Hughes in Game 2, Wang in Game 3. Someone on some website said that of all the Game 1 starters in the playoffs this year, the one most likely to get shelled was Wang – and he was right. He had two outs and none on in the 1st before allowing three runs! WTF? Then there was Posada k’ing with the bases full and none out. After the Yanks pulled to within one, and Wang walked the leadoff hitter, I knew Torre should have pulled him, but no, he stayed in to give up a two-run HR that felt like the death knell.

What else went wrong? Outside of Ohlendorf getting bombed, Melky has become an automatic out (0-4), Arod walked twice but also went 0-2 with two popups, Posada, Matsui and Jeter went 0-12 with five Ks (leaving 12 men on base).

The good news? Abreu and Cano looked good at the plate, Hughes looked good in his first postseason work (despite giving up an 0-2 HR – inexcusable Phil), this was a game the Yanks were expected/supposed to lose (they’re only down 0-1), and finally, the last two years when the Yanks have won Game 1 they’ve gone on to lose the series, so maybe a first game loss will reverse that.

PS: Is that stadium some kind of launching pad or what? I didn’t think at least two of those HRs had any shot of getting out.

 

Yankees vs. Indians LDS Game 1 preview

Sabathia vs. active Yankees

Last start against: Sept. 1, 2004 in the Bronx – 6 ip, 3 er, 5 h, 4 bb, 3 k
The righties killed him while the lefties couldn’t touch him. Matsui didn’t get one hit in 10 plate appearances – why the hell is he starting over Shelley Duncan who has killed southpaws this year (although he fared better against righties in Triple-A Scranton)? And it’s not like Matsui hit some screamers for outs against CC – he had one lineout in those 10 pa, but in his defense he only struck out once too (his first pa).

Wang vs. active Indians

Last start against: July 3, 2006 in Cleveland – 5.1 ip, 5 er, 11 h, 2 bb, 2 k
The good news: he’s owned Hafner and Martinez, holding them both under a .612 OPS. In fact, he’s held the Cleveland hitters to an abysmal line – .228/.323/.368.
The bad: Grady Sizemore has killed him to a .333/.333/.778 tune in nine pa. And Wang has struggled on the road throughout his career – 3.04 era at home vs. 4.62 on the road (and even more so this year – 2.75 home era vs. 4.91 road era).

Ironically, neither of the starting pitchers have faced their opponent this season. Going by these numbers the Yanks have the advantage, but the wildcard is how will the Yanks do against Sabathia after not seeing him in three years? He’s gone from being a good but raw pitcher to the Cy Young favorite…

For a slightly more in depth preview, go here.

My prediction? Yanks in 4.

 

Tonight! Yanks clinch playoff spot

And will probably play Cleveland in the Division Series. The Yanks have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break (48-24).

They started the journey seven months ago, across the bay in spring training at Legends Field. Joba Chamberlain was not invited, Roger Clemens was not signed, Melky Cabrera was not a starter, and Carl Pavano was not hurt.

So much has changed, the season unfolding in surprising and sometimes painful ways. The Yankees lost 29 of their first 50 games, and kept stumbling into July.

“There were times,” Manager Joe Torre said, “when you felt like you’d won the lottery when you won a game.”

But the bumpy road has brought them to their expected destination, the playoffs, for the 13th season in a row. With George Steinbrenner, their principal owner, watching from a box after lunching with Torre in the afternoon, the Yankees clinched a spot in the postseason Wednesday night with a 12-4 wipeout of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Tropicana Field.

“This has definitely been the hardest one,” said Derek Jeter, who went 3 for 5 with a homer. “We scuffled early on, but everybody here knew we had a good team; we were just playing bad. A lot of people counted us out, and everybody sort of liked that.”

It does feel good, especially considering how many ‘experts’ put forks in the Yankees in May.

 
 


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