ESPN has released their Power Rankings for Week 13 of the 2007 NFL season and, despite the AFC hype, two NFC teams are in the top three. The voting was done by ESPN writers John Clayton, Len Pasquarelli, Matt Mosley, Jeffri Chadiha and Mike Sando; Scouts Inc. Insiders Jeremy Green and Keith Kidd; and ESPN.com NFL senior editor Mike McAllister.
Twenty different Patriots players have scored TDs this season. That equals or is more than the touchdown totals for 11 other teams this season. We know you never get tired of those kinds of comparisons, right?
Home-field advantage in the NFC likely is at stake Thursday, and the last thing the Cowboys want to do is play the NFC title game at Lambeau in January. But Wade Phillips has won a playoff game at Green Bay — as Atlanta’s D-coordinator in 2002.
Brett Favre has played five or more regular-season games against 18 different NFL teams — and his .286 winning percentage (2-5 record) vs. Dallas is his lowest. Add his 0-3 playoff record and Favre is batting .200 against the Cowboys.
The Colts, according to the Indy Star, have led or shared the lead in the AFC South for 90 of the 97 weeks since the division was formed in 2002. Beating the Jags on Sunday would likely add the rest of 2007 to that total.
The Jags are rolling into Sunday’s division showdown against Indy with a ton of confidence. "The guys are hungry," QB David Garrard told the Times-Union. "I’m sure everybody can feel this season is different."
Shame on the Steelers organization for allowing their MNF game to be played on such poor field conditions. It wasn’t fair to the players, or the fans who invested time and money to watch the game. Either get it right or start using the artificial stuff.
The Browns are plus-2 in the giveaway/takeaway category. That may not mean much to you, but the Browns have finished on the plus side of turnover differential just once since 1993.
In three previous meetings against the Eagles, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been sacked 11 times (including a career-high seven back in 2001) and has a 58.8 passer rating, his lowest against any NFC team. So what’s the over/under for sacks this Sunday?
You’ve heard of QB controversies, but with the backups? Jon Gruden isn’t revealing his hand on who will start against the Saints if No. 1 guy Jeff Garcia can’t play due to a back injury. The fans of Bruce Gradkowski and Luke McCown eagerly await.
Of the eight division leaders, none has a worse road record this season than the Chargers’ 1-4 mark. With their next two games at KC and Tennessee, LT knows what must be done: "We’re going to have to find a way to win on the road."
Go ahead, blame Eli (and he deserves it). But don’t forget to blame the rest of the Giants for a wretched performance against the Vikings. After all, the defense allowed Minny QB Tarvaris Jackson to post a 139.2 passer rating.
On five drives against the Bengals, the Titans entered the red zone. Three times they had goal-to-go situations. And yet they couldn’t find the end zone. It’ll be one of their many regrets if they don’t make the playoffs.
The Saints have underachieved, but at least they have a meaningful December, starting with a key home game against NFC South leader Tampa Bay. "It doesn’t get any better than it’s about to get," QB Drew Brees told the Times-Picayune.
Reports have surfaced that owner William Clay Ford Sr. wants the coaching staff to increase the workload of rookie WR Calvin Johnson. On the flip side, head coach Rod Marinelli is demanding that Ford build a better-looking SUV.
The question in Philly: Would Donovan McNabb had played better than A.J. Feeley did in nearly beating the Patriots? When healthy, McNabb’s still the main guy, but Andy Reid is adamant that nothing less than a fully healed McNabb will play.
So is running back Cedric Benson’s season-ending ankle injury a plus or minus for the rest of the season? Benson’s an underachiever, but it’s not like Adrian Peterson (Bears’ version) has run like Adrian Peterson (Vikes’ version) this season.
Until Sunday, the Broncos’ special-teams play — after a dismal start — had recently been among the league’s best. Perhaps that improvement resulted in overconfidence. Ultimately, it just led to a harsh lesson: Don’t kick to Devin Hester.
Earlier this month, the Vikings were blanked by Green Bay, 34-0, and dropped to 3-6. Hard to imagine now that they’re in the playoff race. A win on Sunday vs. Detroit (Adrian Peterson may be back) puts them in good shape.
Kurt Warner triggered the Greatest Show on Turf, yet he never threw for as many yards with those Rams offenses as he did Sunday against the 49ers. But his career-high 484 yards was overshadowed in the shocking way the Cards lost.
FedEx Field will be an emotional place the next two games, as the Redskins and their fans deal with the tragic loss of Sean Taylor. Joe Gibbs will need to draw on all of his coaching experience to get his team prepared for the rest of this season.
No team has committed more turnovers; in fact, opponents have converted Houston’s 29 turnovers into 108 points. "There are a lot of things we can do to win, but turning the ball over ain’t one of them," OT Ephraim Salaam told the Chronicle.
The Bills’ offense is not one for steady drives, as just four TD drives this season have been 10 plays or longer. J.P. Losman just doesn’t seem like a good fit, which explains why the Bills are going back to Trent Edwards this week.
Admit it — you’ve missed Ocho Cinco’s TD celebrations. Chad Johnson’s TV cameraman act opens up a whole new genre. Next time, let’s see him take a sideline reporter’s microphone and interview himself about his TD. Watch out, Rachel Nichols!
It has been 30 years since the Chiefs lost six home games in a single season at Arrowhead Stadium, but with a 2-4 home record, it could happen this year if they can’t beat the Chargers and Titans in December.
The five-game losing streak is the longest in franchise history, and it figures to reach seven with games against the Patriots and Colts the next two weeks. Right now, not even the Dec. 16 game at Miami seems like a sure win.
Panthers fans, frustrated by their team’s inability to win at home, are starting to stay away from Bank of America Stadium. That’s not good for the job security of coach John Fox and GM Marty Hurney, who are both on the hot seat.
After beating the Chiefs in the season finale of 1999, the Raiders went 33-15 the next three years, culminating in a Super Bowl appearance. Will Sunday’s win at KC have the same impact? "Maybe this is our roll," DT Warren Sapp told the Tribune.
Let’s see … Ted Tollner arrives to assist with the offense. The 49ers then produce a season-high 374 yards in beating the Cards. Does A+B=C? Seems that way, but maybe not. "Ted was very uninvolved in the play-calling," QB Trent Dilfer said.
Gus Frerotte’s fumbled snap was a heartbreaker, but the Rams should never have let it come to that in losing to Seattle. The offense went into a shell after taking a 19-7 lead, failing to produce points on their final nine possessions.
TE Alge Crumpler tells the J-C that "it just puzzles me that we can’t score points." But is it really puzzling that Atlanta’s averaging four points less than last season? Mike Vick’s absence accounts for at least that much, if not more.
If the Jets can’t beat the winless Dolphins this week, this season will likely end up as the team’s worst since the Rich Kotite days. And QB Kellen Clemens isn’t making much of a statement in his audition as the starter.
Hypothetical question: Could the Dolphins beat the Saskatchewan Roughriders, who won the Grey Cup on Sunday? It’d be tough, especially using those funky CFL rules. Of course, that wouldn’t faze Ricky Williams (2006 Argonauts).
It’s hard to argue much with these rankings, even if they’re a bit too closely related to teams’ overall records. Presumably, some teams that had hot starts but have since faded (Giants, Steelers) and teams that have started poorly but have gotten better of late (Rams) should have rankings weighted to reflect the recent performance. There might also be a strength of schedule component, as some teams play in much more competitive divisions.
He played 15 years and had a less than unspectacular two seasons as an NFL head coach. RIP.
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Jim Ringo, a Hall of Fame center who played 15 seasons for the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles, died Monday morning after a short illness. He was two days shy of his 76th birthday.
Former Packers teammate Willie Davis said Ringo, who lived in Chesapeake, Va., had been battling Alzheimer’s.
“One minute, you’re reliving an experience,” said Davis, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame with Ringo in 1981. “And the next minute, he’d be asking, ‘Who’s this?’”
The Packers drafted Ringo out of Syracuse in the seventh round in 1953, and he became one of the league’s best centers despite being undersized at just over 200 pounds.
“But what tenacity he had as a center in the NFL,” Davis said. “Probably, no one was better.”
But Ringo turned his relatively small size into an advantage, leading the way on the power sweep that made the Packers’ offense so effective.
“As Vince Lombardi once observed, Jim epitomized the toughness and determination needed to not only play the center position but to become one of the game’s most dominant offensive linemen of his era,” said Steve Perry, president/executive director of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. “On behalf of all of us at the Pro Football Hall of Fame, I extend my heartfelt condolences to Jim’s family.”
Ringo played for Green Bay through 1963, but a contract dispute led Ringo and Lombardi to part ways. According to Packers folklore, Ringo had the audacity to bring an agent with him to negotiate a new contract — and Lombardi traded him to Philadelphia on the spot.
“The story goes that Jim came in with a representative to visit with coach Lombardi about his contract,” Packers historian Lee Remmel said. “Vince excused himself, came back, and said ‘You now are a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.’”
As far as Davis is concerned, the story is true.
“Jim was probably not out of place,” Davis said. “But at that point, Lombardi was not prepared to have an intermediary.”
Agents, of course, now are an accepted part of the today’s game, something Davis said Lombardi would have struggled with.
“I don’t think he’d be a very happy camper,” Davis said.
It wasn’t the first time Ringo didn’t see eye to eye with a Packers coach. In fact, his Hall of Fame career almost was over before it started.
Remmel said that as a rookie in 1953, Ringo decided training camp was too tough and simply walked out one day. Then-coach Gene Ronzani sent one of the team’s scouts all the way to the East Coast to pick him up.
“It’s fortunate that he did, because he went on to become a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame,” Remmel said.
Ringo played for the Eagles from 1964-67. He was voted to 10 Pro Bowls and was chosen for the NFL’s All-Decade Team of the 1960s. He started in a then-record 182 consecutive games from 1954-67.
Ringo later went in to coaching. He replaced Buffalo Bills coach Lou Saban part of the way through the 1976 season, and the Bills lost their last nine games. He returned the following year, and the Bills went 3-11. Ringo was fired after the season and replaced by Chuck Knox.
Ringo’s death comes just a month after the death of former Packers receiver and broadcaster Max McGee, making for a tough couple of weeks in what has otherwise been a joyful season on the field the Packers.
“It does,” Davis said. “While each one kind of has its place, you can’t be oblivious to the McGee and Ringo kind of disasters. As far as I’m concerned, one of the best things that that could happen is for the Packers to go on and get into the Super Bowl.”
Ringo’s wife Judy said her husband was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s in 1996, and the couple moved to Chesapeake about 10 years ago. He lived at home for much of that time until moving to a treatment unit in nearby Virginia Beach, she said, and he had recently developed penumonia.
The Dolphins lost again yesterday. The result didn’t surprise me but the game left me feeling hopeful.
*- Much maligned DB Jason Allen intercepted two passes. One should never have been thrown, but the first INT was totally legit. Allen also made five tackles in the game.
*- John Beck was only 9 for 22 for a little over 100 yards. He threw no INT and wasn’t sacked. Beck did make several nice throws, particularly to Ted Ginn. No question, Beck has legitimate arm strength to stretch the field.
Beck on 2nd and goal from the 1 in the fourth qtr, almost got his first TD pass. Only a great breakup by a Eagle defender kept TE Aaron Halterman from hauling in the pass.
*- Ted Ginn has his most productive day as a WR. 4 receptions for 52 yards.
*- The defense still can’t stop the run, but they harried Eagle Qbs Donovan McNab, and after he left the game for an injury, AJ Feeley. Neither QB had a good day at all, throwing 3 INTs and being constantly pressured.
Other than the run defense, the worst part of the game for Miami was…..
*- Cam Cameron’s play call on 4th and 1 from the Philadelphia one yard line in the 4th Qtr. What was the coach thinking of? A pitch back to where the running back needs to go 10 yds for a TD. I don’t blame Cameron for going for the TD, but the play call was absolutely idiotic.
At this point the most I expect from Miami is 2-14 or 1-15. Getting Beck and other young players experience in the NFL, and landing next year’s #1 pick to me are the real goals for the rest of the 2007 Miami Dolphin season. Right now I see some hope for the Dolphins future.
Yesterday’s CBS broadcast(I taped it while attending the golf) should be shown to all future football announcers to demonstrate what not to do when play is occuring on the field.
On third down, Philadelphia QB Donova McNab failed to complete a pass in the light rain. Seconds after the play was over, CBS cut to the booth and have Gannon and Harlan talk about how hard it is to throw a wet ball and what teams try to do to make it easier. While this is going on Philadelphia lines up to punt from their own 40.
Dolphin WR/KR Ted Ginn hasn’t done a great deal this year, but he has had two kick returns for touchdowns taken back by penalties in the last five games. You’d think the announcers would concentrate on Ginn.
No Gannon and Harlan are still talking wet footballs as Ginn fields the punt at the 13 yard line. Ginn takes off, Gannon and Harlan keep rambling on(Mostly Gannon), Ginn runs past the entire Eagle special teams unit. It isn’t till Gannon is talking about dryers and Ginn has reached the fifty yardline, that the bozo announcer notices there is a punt return in progress for a touchdown.
“This is Ted Ginn.” Gannon stops to say as the punt returner races to the endzone.
Seconds after the play was over, Harlan mentions a great block that freed Ginn by Michael Lehan that freed Ginn. Lehan made a block but it was totally inconsequential to Ginn’s return. Both were out of the play. Though the person Lehan blocked tried running down Ginn afterwards.
Was Harlan watching the play when it happened, then why didn’t he break into Gannon’s monologue? I make a bet the block was told to Harlan by someone in the production booth.
Here’s the video
You screw up the live call and then can’t call the replay properly either. Great job CBS.
Update- The video is from the Dolphin game, but that is not the CBS announcing crew.
Miami(0-9) plays at Philadelphia(4-5) this afternoon. It will be the first NFL regular season game for Dolphin QB John Beck. It was announced earlier this week that Beck would get the start.
I don’t anything to say but my prediction this week. Miami will still be winless on Thanksgiving Day. Prediction- Philadelphia 24 Miami 17.
He’ll do so without playing a single snap in a regular season NFL prior to this Sunday. From the Sun-Sentinel-
Dolphins rookie John Beck was handed the baton Wednesday, becoming the third quarterback to start for the Dolphins this season and the 12th starting quarterback to enter the equation since Dan Marino retired in 1999.
Beck will be making his NFL debut against an aggressive Philadelphia Eagles defense on Sunday, and coach Cam Cameron said at this point the plan is to ride the team’s second-round draft pick the rest of this season.
*****
Cameron said he made this switch because of the “tremendous progress” he’s seen from Beck the past month. He expects Beck to limit turnovers, executive the offense as designed, utilize the weaponry around him and lead an offense that’s ranked 19th in yards per game and points per game.
“Young guys can lead. Just play the best football you can play. That’s what we’re asking him to do. This is a young man. This isn’t a guy in his mid-20s. This isn’t a 21-, 20-year old guy,” Cameron said, referring to the 26-year-old who spent two years away from football while on a Mormon mission in Portugal.
“This is a mature guy who is going to maximize his opportunities.”
I’m not expecting miracles from Beck. No Dolphin fan should. All we can realistically hope for is to find out if Beck can be an NFL quality Quarterback. If not Miami needs to go shopping in the draft for that position.
There are still three undefeated teams going into Week 6 of the NFL season: the New England Patriots, defending champion Indianapolis Colts, and the surprising young Dallas Cowboys. They top this week’s Power Rankings as determined by the analysts at ESPN.
The Pats and Cowboys have met just nine times, so history doesn’t figure to influence Sunday’s game. But if it means anything (OK, it really doesn’t), Bill Belichick is just 1-3 vs. Wade Phillips.
Raise your hand if you figured Kenton Keith and Craphonso Thorpe (hey, no snickering!) would be integral parts of the Colts’ pummeling of the Bucs. Indy has made a habit of these 5-0 starts.
Can a kicker be rookie of the year? Not only did Nick Folk nail the 53-yarder (twice) to beat Buffalo but his execution of the onside kick was flawless. His only missed FG this season was a block by the Bears.
Want to see a textbook example of how to protect a lead? Check out what the Steelers did Sunday, holding the ball for nearly 25 of the 30 second-half minutes in their 21-0 win over the Seahawks.
The Packers, like most teams, aren’t good enough to turn the ball over five times, commit 12 penalties and still win. ‘We’re not a bad football team, but we’re not great either,’ said Brett Favre after the loss to the Bears.
QB David Garrard is doing the things that make coaches sleep easier — basically, he’s not screwing up. Garrard has yet to throw an interception this season, which helps explain why he ranks 4th in QB ratings.
For the fourth time since Jeff Fisher became head coach, the Titans have started 3-1. Good news for Tennessee: On those three previous occasions, they made the playoffs.
The 144 yards allowed to Detroit was the lowest total given up by a Redskins defense in 15 years. It helped that Washington enjoyed a nearly 10-minute edge in time of possession.
For the first time since their 2000 Super Bowl season, the Ravens won a game despite scoring only field goals. Injuries to the offensive line might force Baltimore to keep relying on Matt Stover for all its points.
Will having a new lead blocker get Shaun Alexander untracked? Leonard Weaver will be the new lead blocker for Alexander now that 15-year vet Mack Strong is retiring after suffering a herniated disc in his neck.
If the Bucs are going to be playoff contenders in the second half, they must find a solution (re: trade) to their RB injury woes. Names being mentioned by the Tampa Bay media: Vikings’ Mewelde Moore, Chargers’ Michael Turner, Broncos’ Mike Bell.
There are confidence boosters. And then there are CONFIDENCE BOOSTERS. The Chargers got the latter in routing the Broncos and can now move into at least a tie for the AFC West lead by beating the Raiders on Sunday.
With Matt Leinart out and 36-year-old Kurt Warner now the full-time QB, the Cards need a solid backup. But The Arizona Republic reports that it won’t be ex-Cardinal Jake Plummer, who has retired.
The Giants go into Monday night’s game at Atlanta having won three straight. Inconsistent play is still a troubling sign, though. Eli Manning on Sunday: 22 yards passing in first half, 164 in second half.
Although the Bears knocked the Packers from the ranks of the unbeatens, just how impressive was the win? The Chicago defense was steamrolled in the first half, and the rushing game produced only 82 yards on 33 attempts.
Will Kris Brown’s 5-FG performance go down as the greatest kicking day in NFL history? It should. He nailed three from 50-plus yards, including the winner from 57 with one second left to beat the Dolphins.
The Panthers are in a precarious state at quarterback. Jake Delhomme is out for the rest of the season. David Carr is banged-up. Undrafted rookie Matt Moore is now the backup. The phone lines will be heating up in Charlotte.
Take away the fourth-quarter, 34-point explosion against the Bears, and this much-ballyhooed Lions offense has been held out of the end zone in its past 10 quarters. But hey, it can’t be Mike Martz’s fault. After all, he’s an offensive genius.
Life figures to get worse before it gets better for the Broncos. They’ve been humiliated at home, have lost three straight and will come out of the bye week with games against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Detroit.
Don’t look now, but your AFC West leaders are … the Raiders, the only team without a losing record. The next two games (San Diego, Kansas City) should provide a better picture of just how seriously we should take Oakland.
The 49ers rank last in the league in time of possession, and with QB Alex Smith hurt, it doesn’t figure to get better. RB Frank Gore ranks 36th in the league in yards per carry (3.6).
Only Detroit (27) has allowed more sacks than the Eagles’ 19, but despite facing intense pressure, quarterback Donovan McNabb has thrown just one interception this season.
The Bengals hope to repeat their post-bye-week success of 2003 (when they won six of seven after going into the bye 1-4) and 2004 (when they won five of eight after going into the bye 1-3).
The last time the Browns won two consecutive games was 2003, and they sure weren’t going to do it Sunday at New England. But give the Browns credit for putting up a fight, even though, as 16-1/2 point underdogs, they still failed to beat the spread.
How bad has it gotten in K.C.? Tight end Tony Gonzalez is hoping the final-play TD the Chiefs scored to avoid being shut out by the Jags is ‘something we can build from.’ Well, might be easier if the Chiefs had a running game.
The Bills fortunately have a bye week to deal with the anguish of losing a game they should’ve won. But as many big plays as Buffalo made against the Cowboys, Dick Jauron correctly pointed out that it needed just one more.
A tough stretch awaits the Vikings coming out of their bye week. They face four consecutive playoff teams from 2006, starting with Sunday’s game at Chicago, then must travel to Green Bay in Week 10. Minnesota needs to improve in a hurry.
Is Chad Pennington on a short leash? The Jets quarterback has thrown five interceptions in the past two weeks, prompting some discussion that backup Kellen Clemens should start warming up. The Jets need a turnaround. Quick.
Warrick Dunn is expected to reach the 10,000-yard career rushing mark this season. But at this rate, it won’t be anytime soon. He gained just 27 yards in the loss to Tennessee, giving him 9,710 for his career.
Odds are against the Saints’ returning to the playoffs this season. Since the NFL increased the playoff teams to 12 in 1990, just one team — the ’92 Chargers — has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start.
If St. Louis loses at Baltimore on Sunday, this squad will tie the ’62 Rams for the worst start (0-6) in franchise history. And 0-7 is a distinct possibility, given that the Rams must travel to Seattle in Week 7.
How soon will the John Beck era begin Miami? Trent Green is out, and his career might be over. Cleo Lemon is now the starter, but it’s Beck, the second-round draft pick from BYU, who’s pegged as Miami’s future QB. The future might be now.
The Dallas Cowboys are now the most valuable team in all of professional sports.
The Dallas Cowboys wrested the title of the NFL’s most valuable franchise from the rival Redskins, knocking Washington off the top of the list for the first time in eight years, according to Forbes magazine’s annual survey. Thanks to a new $1 billion stadium set to open in 2009, the Cowboys’ value increased by 28 percent — by far the largest jump among NFL teams this year — to $1.5 billion. They climbed from third to first in the rankings, leapfrogging the Redskins ($1.467 billion) and the New England Patriots ($1.199 billion).
The new stadium added about $350 million to the Cowboys’ value. Jerry Jones can now boast that he owns the world’s most valuable sports franchise, according to Forbes. “Our organization’s incentive has always been to have our franchise recognized as being the best, both on and off the field,” Jones said. “This is recognition of the fans and the many constituencies who have helped build the Dallas Cowboys.”
The Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles again round out the top five and remain the only other franchises worth more than $1 billion. Both New York teams also enjoyed big jumps in the rankings because of a planned stadium. The Giants moved from 15th to eighth with a 9 percent increase to $974 million. The Jets went from 19th to 10th with a 10 percent improvement to $967 million. Their jointly owned, $1.3 billion facility is scheduled to open in 2010. The stadium added about $50 million to each franchise’s value. That number is smaller than the Cowboys’ because the venue isn’t as far along. Forbes expects that the two teams’ rankings will continue to climb as the stadium nears completion. The Cleveland Browns were the only franchise whose value decreased. They rank ninth at $969 million, down from $970 million.
Since the Cowboys were already number three with a 35 year old stadium, this was inevitable. Still, Jones has to enjoy holding this coveted status again.
Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders ranks all 32 teams at quarterback using some highly scientific formula. Actually, though, he’s mostly ranking the top 32 presumptive starting quarterbacks, since the backups barely factor into the equation.
His top 10, then:
1. Colts (2006 Rank: 1)
If you lumped together all of Peyton Manning‘s third down pass attempts from the last three seasons, you would get this stat line: 243-of-384 (63.3%), 2889 yards, 38 touchdowns, eight interceptions. The dude is pretty good on third downs.
Take four years of Peyton’s fourth quarter performances and add them together to get this stat line: 304-of-454 (66.9 percent), 3,589 yards, 22 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. He’s pretty good late in the game, too. If you are only interested in “late clutch” situations (fourth quarter, game within seven points), Peyton is 229-of-335 (68.3 percent) for 2,768 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s not too shabby with the game on the line.
In short, Manning is the guy you want to give the ball to in pressure situations. The “playoff choke artist” isn’t dead; he never existed. The Peyton Manning we saw in January and February — the guy who battled back from a 21-3 lead in the AFC title game against the Team of the Decade, who threw for 247 yards against the league’s best defense in the rain-drenched Super Bowl — is an all-time great, a legend in his prime.
Jim Sorgi has been in the system for four years and has looked good in mop-up duty. John Navarre provides much needed preseason comic relief as the third stringer.
(Note: Manning naysayers should email their complaints to me at mtanier@footballoutsiders.com, not Aaron Schatz or Rupert Murdoch.)
2. Patriots (2006 Rank: 2)
Fourteen wins. Twenty-four touchdowns. Over 3,500 yards. Another 724 yards and five touchdowns in the postseason. Welcome to an off year, Tom Brady style. When Brady comes within four points of reaching the Super Bowl, he’s a disappointment. With three rings on his fingers and a new crop of receivers to throw to this season, he’s sure to find a way to bounce back in 2007.
Brady is best in the league at spraying the ball to his backs and tight ends in space, and he has the best pocket awareness since Troy Aikman. Only Peyton is better at dissecting and dismantling coverage schemes. Some micro-analysts think he can’t throw the deep ball. Just wait until Brady sees Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth streaking down the sidelines. He’ll show you a deep ball.
Backup Matt Cassel has been with the Patriots so long that he once fumbled in Nickerson Stadium. In a preseason game, of course. Cassel is a swashbuckling scrambler with a case of fumble-itis, but he knows the system. Rookie Matt Gutierrez posted marginal numbers at I-AA Idaho State but has NFL size and arm strength.
3. Eagles (2006 Rank: 8)
Donovan McNabb surprised many by participating in a May mini-camp; it was an encouraging sign that he is ahead of schedule in his ACL rehab. McNabb underwent a grueling off-season program of knee exercises that included, among other things, long games of tag. Yes, as in “you’re it.” Don’t laugh; children’s games can help athletes improve the strength and flexibility in their legs. In fact, legend has it that Dan Marino overcame his collegiate knee injuries by riding the Double Dutch Bus.
When healthy, McNabb is an elite quarterback. He’s great at launching deep passes, but he’s even better when the Eagles offense is balanced and he has the chance to throw underneath. McNabb underthrows some passes and is starting to lose his scrambling ability, but he’s a great decision maker in the pocket and one of the hardest quarterbacks in NFL history for players not named Ronde Barber to intercept.
McNabb has missed 13 starts in the last two seasons and is coming off a major injury. Luckily, the Eagles have the best quarterback depth in the NFL. A.J. Feeley is an Andy Reid disciple who knows the system and takes what the defense offers. Rookie Kevin Kolb is a shotgun quarterback with great touch and mobility; the Lewin Career Forecast ranks him as an excellent long-term prospect. Kelly Holcomb, acquired in the Takeo Spikes trade, may be the odd man out, but he’s a heady veteran who can win a game or two if called upon.
4. Bengals (2006 Rank: 6)
As Carson Palmer continues to recover from that devastating ACL injury, the Bengals could move up this list. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
Carson Palmer slipped a bit after his tremendous 2005 season. The lingering effects of his ACL tear troubled him early in the season, and injuries on the offensive line resulted in 36 sacks. Still, 4,000 yards and a 28/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio are nothing to apologize for. Palmer may have the quickest release in football and excels at throwing deep outs and comebacks. He also knows how to check down and can buy time in the pocket. The Bengals would rank third, but mediocre backup Doug Johnson and rookie Jeff Rowe wouldn’t win many games in Palmer’s absence.
5. Seahawks (2006 Rank: 3)
You may have seen Matt Hasselbeck sporting a blonde wig during mini-camp. Do not be alarmed. Hasselbeck and Mike Holmgren just had some communication issues. Holmgren said that the quarterback had to be more like Montana. Holmgren meant “Joe.” Hasselbeck thought he meant “Hannah.”
After suffering through his worst season in five years, Hasselbeck probably felt the need to wear a disguise and lay low. Hasselbeck missed four games with a knee injury, then started forcing balls into coverage when he returned. Dropped passes and instability on the offensive line didn’t help. Hasselbeck is healthy again (the minor off-season surgery on his non-throwing shoulder is not an issue), so look for him to return to form as soon as he loses the wig. He’s a consummate West Coast quarterback who breaks down coverages well and puts tremendous touch on the ball.
Backup Seneca Wallace is a 5-foot-10 scrambler with an average arm. Mike Holmgren changes the offense when Wallace is in the game, calling more shotgun formations and rolling pocket plays. Despite his physical limits, Wallace has a little bit of Flutie Magic and can surprise opponents.
6. Saints (2006 Rank: 10)
He’s short. His passes don’t exactly whistle in the air. He can run a little, but he’s no Michael Vick. He came from the type of spread college offense that has been churning out NFL busts for two decades. Drew Brees‘ measurables don’t add up to a Pro Bowl quarterback, but here he is. Brees has now enjoyed three straight outstanding seasons for two different teams, so it’s time to give him his due. Brees is a mechanically sound technician with great touch and accuracy who has good pocket awareness and gets rid of the ball quickly. Combine all of those “little” skills, and you get 4,400 yards, 26 touchdowns, and a deep playoff run.
Backup Jamie Martin has been in the NFL for 13 seasons, most of them as a third stringer. He’s auditioning for an offensive coordinator’s job. Second-year pro Jason Fife is a project.
7. Rams (2006 Rank: 17)
Another year, another 4,000 yards or so and 24 touchdowns. Bulger may be the most consistent quarterback in the league. He rarely has a truly bad game, and when he does (like last season’s 151-yard, zero touchdown, seven-sack effort against the Panthers), it’s pretty obvious that there were breakdowns elsewhere on offense. If Rex Grossman could take Marc Bulger pills, Bears fans wouldn’t need so much ibuprofen to get through the fall.
Backup Gus Frerotte is a streak shooter with a great arm and tons of experience. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fleet-footed Ivy Leaguer who throws well on the run. Neither could lead the Rams to the playoffs, but both could win a game in a pinch.
8. Steelers (2006 Rank: 4)
He led his team to a 15-1 season. He won a Super Bowl. Then he turned 24. He accomplished so much that it was easy to forget how young Ben Roethlisberger was. He crashed his motorcycle. He needed an appendectomy. He battled back, but he couldn’t overcome the distractions and the expectations. He was awful early in 2006, throwing no touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first three games. He got better, but he kept pressing. Roethlisberger was a terrible fourth quarter passer in 2006: four touchdowns, 11 interceptions, many of the picks coming at the worst possible times. He was trying too hard, playing outside the system. It was a miserable year.
Now, the good news: Big Ben is healthy and focused. The new coaching staff plans to maximize his strengths by introducing more spread formations and a no-huddle package. And he’s still only 25 years old. Think of last season as his “rookie lumps” year. He just had it out of order.
Backup Charlie Batch has a poor arm and has lost much of his athleticism, but he’s crafty and played well in relief over the last two seasons. Brian St. Pierre has been hanging around practice squads for four years. Brian Randall, a former standout at Virginia Tech, will try to make some noise in camp.
9. Ravens (2006 Rank: 12)
Steve McNair is Captain Checkdown, a dink-and-dunk specialist who never met a slant, hitch, or curl route that he didn’t like. McNair still has the arm to throw deep but rarely does; just 13 percent of his passes traveled 16 or more yards in the air, easily the lowest figure among starters. McNair is a marksman on short routes, and while he isn’t very fast, he knows when to tuck and run for positive yardage.
Backup Kyle Boller has plenty of experience, throws a great deep ball, and can run away from trouble. Boller played well when McNair was hurt last year but still overthrows too many receivers. Rookie Troy Smith has all the intangibles but must prove that he is more than a shotgun-option rollout quarterback.
10. Chargers (2006 Rank: 22)
Philip Rivers finished fifth in the league in DPAR (88.6), threw for 3,388 yards, and led his teams to a 14-2 record. Still, his performances against the Raiders in Week 12 (14-of-31, 133 yards, one interception) and Chiefs in Week 15 (8-of-23, 97 yards, two interceptions) suggest that Rivers is still suffering through some growing pains. New coach Norv Turner will focus on fundamentals to improve Rivers’ awkward backpedal and delivery style. But Turner’s system lacks creativity, and Rivers may struggle when opponents figure out the game plan. Backup Billy Volek went from heir apparent to dirty dishrag in Tennessee in just a few weeks last year. Volek has a live arm and has proven he can win games off the bench.
11. Cowboys (2006 Rank: 21)
Tony Romo is no half-year wonder. Romo spent three years on the Cowboys bench learning the ropes from Sean Payton before bursting into the spotlight last October. When he’s focused, his mechanics are solid, his release is quick, he makes good decisions, and he can make plays on the run. Focus, though, is the key. By December, Romo seemed to be reading his press clippings; he started scrambling around in search of highlight-film touchdowns and carrying the football like it was an overfilled diaper pail. With a season to settle into his role as a starter, Romo will calm down and return to the form he displayed during his nine-touchdown, one-interception November run.
Backup Brad Johnson aged quickly last year. He’s a fine sounding board and mentor for Romo, but the Cowboys are in trouble if he plays.
Okay, so that’s 11. But I wasn’t going to leave the ‘Boys off the list when they were so close! Moving up 11 spots over last year is quite impressive, especially considering that Romo fell apart down the stretch and single handedly (quite literally) lost the Cowboys’ playoff game against the Seahawks.
Trainig Camp is about to start and that means that Fantasy Football drafts all around the world are going on. We all pretty much know how the first bunch of picks are going to go (Tomlinson, Jackson, Johnson, Gore, Alexander, Manning…) but what’s left after those guys? Who can be had later that can produce high round talent? I’ll clue you in to some of my sleeper picks this season. This doesn’t mean you should go out and draft these guys right away or try to get each one but these are guys you should keep on your radar.
QB – Matt Leinart (ARI) – After putting up decent numbers as a rookie, especially with the bad line in front of him, he should rise up as one of the best young QBs in the NFL. His stats last year (2547yds, 11/12 TD/INT ratio, 2 rushing TDs, and 2 fumbles lost) weren’t anything to write home about but he was a rookie. He has talented recievers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and a RB that can make grabs out of the backfield in Edgerrin James. The Cardinals will be a surprise team and the improved defense will give the offense enough clock to make plays. Look for Leinart to be a top 10 QB this season. Also, take a long look at Jay Cutler (DEN). Don’t be surprised if Jon Kitna (DET), J.P. Losman (BUF), and Matt Schaub (HOU) have good years as well. Keep a late pick eye on those guys.
RB – Laurence Maroney (NE) – Now that Cory Dillon is out of the picture Maroney is the starter every week for the Pats. He is also a high reward/high risk guy. He wore down late in the year and had offseason shoulder surgery. Don’t let that scare you. He wants to be great and he should be nothing less. The Pats offense is going to flourish this year and Maroney will be a big part of it. He is #1 RB that you might be able to get as your #2.
RB – Ronnie Brown (MIA) – Brown is often overlooked because he barely cracked 1,000 yards (1,008 to be exact) but he did it by only starting 12 games and missing 3 games. Trent Green is the new QB in Miami and loves to dump the ball of to the RB and Brown has the hands to be a 40-50 reception back. He has added bulk to go along with his outside speed. Just be careful of injuries. This could be the year he breaks out as a top-10 back. Also keep an eye on Brandon Jacobs (NYG) and rookies Marshawn Lynch (BUF) and Green Bay RB Brandon Jackson.
WR – Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis (PHI) – Donte Stallworth is now in New England and the Eagles will have a healthy Donovan McNabb. That formula paves the way for breakout seasons from both Brown and Curtis. I wouldn’t fo so far as to say that either will become #1 fantasy options because McNabb ill spread the ball well between those two plus RB Brian Westbrook and TE L.J. Smith. They should both top 60 receptions and grab atleast 14yds/rec with enough TDs to make them viable options at #2 and #3 on your team. I would also take a good look at Brandon Marshall (DEN), Drew Bennett (STL), Santonio Holmes (PIT), and Brandon Jones (TEN).
TE – Vernon Davis (SF) – Davis is a beast! He is so athletic. He has the speed of some recievers, the hands of the top TEs, and the power to lay out defenders. He could end up being Alex Smith’s numero uno target. He is a, dare I say it, more athletic version of Antonio Gates. If Davis doesn’t have a break-out season then I will be incredibly surprised. These TEs should provide good value late in the draft: Marcus Pollard (SEA) and Tony Scheffier (DEN).
Again, don’t reach too far for these guys. Let them fall to you at a good spot and grab them then. Try to keep to your own plan and if one of these guys falls in your lap then jump at the opportunity, that’s what fantasy sports is all about, getting value with each pick. That’s how I’ve won the trophy each of the last 2 years in my league!
